Options Policework
A Moontower Discord user reported a sharp price shock in the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF on Jan 2, which led to a rapid loss in their options position. The trader suspects the loss was driven by gamma exposure as the underlying’s price moved faster than anticipated. The community proposes a step‑by‑step post‑mortem, starting with a factual inventory of the trade. The analysis will separate bad luck from decision quality and explore risk‑management actions such as hedging or closing the position.
Fitch's Draft Climate Screening Tool Gets a Cautious Nod From MMA
Fitch Ratings released an exposure draft for a climate‑vulnerability screening tool (climate.VS) aimed at U.S. public finance issuers. The 0‑100 score, derived from physical and transition risk analyses, flags issuers scoring 50 or above for deeper credit evaluation. Municipal Market...
Hong Kong Open to Backing Universities Issuing Bonds to Fund Megaproject Campuses
Hong Kong's finance chief Paul Chan signaled openness to allowing local universities to issue tertiary education bonds to fund the Northern Metropolis University Town project. The plan expands the campus area to 100 hectares and includes a third medical school,...
Invesco Launches a CIT With Private Real Estate Exposure
Invesco has launched the Invesco Core Plus Real Estate Trust, a collective investment trust (CIT) that blends core‑plus private real estate managed by Invesco Real Estate with passive U.S. REIT holdings, offering daily liquidity for defined contribution (DC) plans. The...
US Oversupply Drives Down Energy Prices, Peaks Likely 2026
Peak Gas, Crude Risks Elevated in 2026; Energy Price Trend Down - Absent a supply shock from potential hostilities with Iran, crude oil may be more likely to peak in 1Q on the back of natural gas. Predominant downward price...
Hong Kong Banks’ Collateral Asset Valuations to Continue Declining in 2026: S&P
S&P Global Ratings warns that collateral values backing Hong Kong banks' commercial property loans will keep declining through 2026, reflecting a market that has yet to find a bottom. The Bank of East Asia disclosed a HK$723 million valuation loss in...
Brazil's Record Soy Output Caps 2026 Prices Near $11.70
Are Soybeans Getting Too Hot Near $11.70? Runaway Brazilian soybean production is a top pressure factor for prices, and $11.70 a bushel in 2026 may be too high. My graphic shows the US-traded oilseed bumping up against the 2025 peak, at...
US Estate Tax Hits Singapore Residents'
You own $3 million in US stocks. You live in Singapore. You pass away. Two versions of what happens next.
Calls to Move England’s Home Insulation Scheme Into Council Workers’ Hands
A Commonwealth think‑tank recommends that English councils replace private contractors with in‑house crews to deliver the £15 bn Warm Homes plan. The proposal calls for creating 30 regional "home improvement corporations" that would train and employ up to 140,000 workers to...
What’s Next for China’s Yuan Payment System? Adviser Banks on Close Trade Partners
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
Record $50B ETF Put Wave Signals AI Fear
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
‘Piloting’ AI Tools Isn’t Cool Anymore
Large U.S. corporations are abandoning the term “pilot” for AI projects, signaling a move from small‑scale tests toward deployments that deliver measurable value. A MIT study that found 95% of AI pilots failed to generate financial impact, combined with a...
Chile Moves to Fast-Track New Lithium Deals
Chile’s mining ministry is set to file five new lithium contracts in March, just days before President Gabriel Boric departs office, as part of a push to accelerate the 2023 national lithium strategy. The contracts target the Salar de Ascotán,...
Fairfax Times the Cycle with a Bet on a Manager Intent on Scaling Its Credit Business
Fairfax Financial is timing the market cycle by investing in Kennedy Wilson’s credit platform as the real‑estate firm prepares for privatization. Kennedy Wilson has steadily expanded its real‑estate debt capabilities while maintaining a global equity presence. The move reflects Fairfax’s...
Software Vols Drop Post‑Earnings, Bullish Call Shift
Viral Blog Bottoms? If you look at the software vols, we obviously still see some very high IV Ranks but those should come down today now that some earnings have passed. We'd argue lower IVs in this space generates a bullish...
Ukrainian Steel, Agricultural Sectors in the Fight for Market Share Despite Non-Stop War
Ukraine’s agriculture and steel sectors remain economic pillars despite war‑driven disruptions, contributing roughly 7‑8% and 5.7‑7.2% of GDP respectively. Grain exports have fallen to their lowest level since the invasion, while sunflower crushing is 9% below last year and 26%...
China Lithium Prices Surge as Zimbabwe Suspends Raw Mineral Exports
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Delayed Publication of Iron Ore Value-In-Use Indices
Fastmarkets released five iron‑ore Value‑In‑Use (VIU) indices on February 26, a day later than scheduled. The indices include 61% Fe and 65% Fe fines, as well as fines measured for silicon, alumina and phosphorus, all quoted cfr Qingdao in dollars per dry...
Cava Targets 1,000 Locations, Sparking DC Retail Opportunities
Cava is aiming for 1,000 restaurants by 2032. The DC-based chain just hit $1.2B in revenue and plans to pass 500 units this year. Same-store sales were flat last quarter, but expansion is driving growth. They’re preparing for 100 openings a...
Ghana to Channel Artisanal Gold Into Formal Trade to Boost Revenue
Ghana announced an artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) gold formalisation programme that will channel roughly 127 metric tons of gold per year into official trade. The Ghana Gold Board, via the newly created GoldBod, will purchase a minimum of 2.45 tons weekly,...
China's 90% Model Threatens 20 Industries—Act Now
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
Biggest Oil Cos Need to Find 22MM Bpd by 2040
Wood Mackenzie warns that the world’s 30 largest oil and gas firms must add roughly 22 million barrels of oil‑equivalent per day by 2040 to preserve their share of global demand. Current output of about 50 mbd is projected to fall nearly...
Tshisekedi Prioritises Gold Sector Reform to Boost State Revenue
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
Collateral Economic Damage in Russia-Ukraine Crossfire
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
Elon Musk's Tesla Sues California DMV Following False Advertising Row Around FSD, Autopilot
Tesla has sued the California Department of Motor Vehicles after the agency labeled the automaker a false advertiser for its Autopilot and Full‑Self Driving branding. Tesla argues the DMV offered no consumer‑witness evidence and relied on a single academic testimony,...
London Gateway Closes in on Post-Brexit UK Port Leadership
London Gateway, DP World’s flagship UK terminal, is on track to become the nation’s leading container port after handling 3 million TEU in 2025 and surpassing Felixstowe in Q3 2025. The port’s rapid growth stems from a £1.5 bn initial outlay followed...
Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth War
China’s decades‑long dominance of rare‑earth processing is being challenged as the United States and allies pour over $8.5 billion into reshaping the supply chain. REAlloys Inc. has become the only North‑American company that can convert rare‑earth concentrates into metals and alloys,...
WisdomTree : Why the Market’s Excitement Around Uranium Is Justified
WisdomTree’s latest blog argues that uranium’s rally is rooted in solid fundamentals as nuclear power re‑enters the global energy agenda. Thirty‑one countries have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, while the United States targets a four‑fold increase. Major tech...
What Will the Fed’s “Warsh Era” Bring?
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural...
US Crude Stocks Surge 16M Barrels, Gulf Coast Leads
U.S. CRUDE OILinventories surged by 16 million barrels over the seven days ending on February 20, the largest one-week increase for three years. The increase was concentrated at refineries and tank farms along the Gulf Coast where stocks rose by...
Italian Regulator Blocks Access to Websites of Keyline FX, Solaxy Tech and Po Trade
Italy’s financial regulator CONSOB ordered the blocking of ten websites that were providing unauthorized investment services, including foreign‑exchange and cryptocurrency offerings. The sites targeted include Keyline FX, Solaxy Tech, Po Trade and related advertising domains, and CONSOB also asked Google to remove the...
Nvidia's Obligations Surge, Raising Structural Risk
Short Thought: Nvidia Ratchets Up the Risk Michael BurryFeb 26 Welcome to one short thought. Just going through the Nvidia numbers. I would like to highlight for you one specific aspect of their financials that I find troubling. The 2026 Form 10K...
Turkey's January Trade Deficit Hits Near‑worst, Lira Tumbles
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
A Rule of Thumb Is Not a Plan
The article warns that retirement‑planning formulas and withdrawal‑rate rules of thumb are often over‑relied upon, despite being based on backward‑looking back‑tests. It argues that such generic models ignore individual spending patterns, health costs, inflation, and tax changes that vary over...
Brazil Real Rebounds to 4.50 as Dollar Weakens
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Higher Jobless Claims and Fed Speech Dominate Thursday
Economic Calendar for Thurs. Feb 26th 8:30am - Initial jobless claims: Expected 216k; Prior 206k - Continuing Jobless Claims: Expected 1.86M; Prior 1.869M 10:00 - Fed’s Bowman speaks 1:00pm - 7 Year Note Auction: Prior 4.018%
Save On IHG Hotel Stays With Amex Offers ($50 Off $250+, Targeted)
American Express has launched a targeted Amex Offers promotion for IHG hotel stays. Cardholders who spend at least $250 on eligible IHG properties between February 25 and May 26, 2026, receive a $50 statement credit, effectively a 20% rebate. The offer applies to...
Yen Rebounds While RMB Gains Accelerate in FX Consolidation
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
U.S. Sends 100 Advisors to Train Nigeria Post‑Airstrike
Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/uIZSP3p5af #nigeria #usmilitary #geopolitics https://t.co/j1BH1u6PXG
Re: Dear Kwame: Cocoa Trade Letters #1
The article uses Salomey’s experience in Ghana to illustrate a systemic cash‑flow squeeze at the farmgate of the cocoa trade. Farmers deliver beans, yet payments are delayed because the state‑run marketing board routes sales through a long, opaque export chain....
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
Chart Reading Mastery Comes From Research and Experience
The ability to read a chart is a gift you can only earn through research and experience.
Agoa Extension Brings Relief, yet Policy Uncertainty Clouds US-Africa Trade Future
The U.S. Senate trimmed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) renewal to a single‑year extension, sparking optimism among exporters but deepening long‑term uncertainty. Simultaneously, Washington imposed tariffs of 10‑30% on key African products, and non‑tariff measures continue to raise...
Focus on Optimizing Existing Strategy, Not Chasing New Ones
Once your strategy is working, stop looking for better strategies. Look to optimize what you already have. Chasing perfection will kill your edge. Protect what you've built through focus and discipline.
Inside How Liquidity Providers Power ETFs and Markets
Join me at 2pm GMT today on Spaces to discuss what’s really going on behind the scenes when liquidity providers like Jane Street support key ETFs and markets. https://t.co/a9uhteuOzP
Eurozone February Final Consumer Confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 Prelim
Eurozone consumer confidence held steady at a final -12.2 in February, matching the preliminary reading. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3, missing forecasts, while industrial confidence fell to -7.1 and services confidence dropped to 5.0, both below expectations. Employment expectations declined...
WIL Shows Decent Fundamentals but Weak Chart, Not a Hold
#WIL results read OK. Has debt now and acquisitions weakened margins. ShareScope has fwd p/e 11.1 falling to 9.3 and fwd Divvy 4.4% rising to 4.6%; attractive numbers. Chart weak and AI possible threat. I don't hold.
TATE's Weak Performance Calls for Patience Despite Yield Rise
I keep looking at #TATE as something for my Income Portfolio but unfortunately it seems to have got itself in a bit of a rut of weak performance. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 5.1% rising to 5.2%; patience needed then.
Nvidia's Strong Earnings and Outlook Discussed Live
Look forward to discussing Nvidia’s robust earnings and guidance on @BloombergTV with @lisaabramowicz1 @FerroTV @annmarie at 7:15 am
MTEC Shows Cash Boost, Falling P/E, Worth Watching
#MTEC "ahead of recently upgraded expectations". Net Cash £11.9m (up). ShareScope has fwd p/e 17.4 falling to 13.7 but no Dividend. Mkt Cap £55m ish so quite small. Worth a look. I don't hold.