Social Security Cuts: What Young Workers Face
The episode breaks down the looming Social Security shortfall highlighted in the 2025 trustees report, explaining that while the trust fund may be depleted by 2033‑34, benefits would simply be reduced to match payroll tax revenue rather than disappearing. It emphasizes that for Millennials and Gen Z, the real concerns are potential payroll tax hikes, rising full retirement ages, and changes to benefit formulas, not the headline 23% cut. The host argues that younger workers should stop relying on Social Security and instead focus on building retirement savings through 401(k)s, IRAs, and other investments. Throughout, the perspective is a pragmatic, financially‑savvy investor urging preparation over panic.
China’s USD Pullback Demands over $100B Monthly Liquidity
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
Hims Reports 2025 Earnings, Shares Details on GLP-1 Pill Decisions
Hims & Hers disclosed its fourth‑quarter earnings and announced that it has withdrawn the controversial GLP‑1 weight‑loss pill it briefly launched. The decision followed conversations with key ecosystem stakeholders, including regulators and partner pharmacies. The company highlighted modest revenue growth...
California FAIR Plan Secures $400m Wildfire Reinsurance From Second Golden Bear Re Cat Bond
The California FAIR Plan secured a $400 million wildfire reinsurance cat bond from Golden Bear Re Ltd. (Series 2026‑2), priced at a 9.5 % spread and an expected loss of 2.65 %. The single‑tranche issuance runs three years to February 2029 and brings the plan’s...
Is It Wise to Gift My Children Money While I'm Alive? Ep#294
In this episode Ryan Morrissey explores the pros and cons of gifting money or assets to adult children while the parents are still alive. He emphasizes assessing one’s own financial health, long‑term care needs, and the purpose of the gift—whether...
Unicapital Trims PSEi Outlook to 6,800 Amid Corruption Scandal, Policy Risks but Sees 2026 Recovery
Unicapital Securities cut its PSEi year‑end target to 6,800, down from 7,100, after re‑rating the index at a 10.5‑times price‑to‑earnings multiple. The downgrade reflects a lingering corruption scandal that has stalled government infrastructure projects and heightened policy uncertainty, including a...
In Big Boost, Cabinet May Approve Critical Minerals Pacts with Germany, Canada: Report
The Union Cabinet is set to approve Joint Declarations of Intent with Germany and Canada on critical minerals. The agreements will target joint exploration, sustainable mining, supply‑chain resilience and technology transfer for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare...
VP Duterte Impeachment Case Bound to Affect Voters in 2028, Says Luistro
House Justice Committee chair Rep. Gerville Luistro announced that impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte will commence on March 2, a process she says will influence voter sentiment ahead of the 2028 presidential election, where Duterte has already declared her...
India Overhauls GDP Data to Improve Accuracy, Official Says
India will revamp its real‑GDP calculation by adopting a double‑deflation approach that blends 500‑600 price items from the consumer‑price index and the wholesale‑price index, replacing the earlier 180‑item basket. The new methodology, slated for release on 27 February with a...
Phuket Emerges as Real Estate Hot Spot in Thailand
Phuket is rapidly emerging as Thailand’s next real‑estate hub as developers pivot from a saturated Bangkok market. Sansiri announced a 24 billion‑baht sales target, planning about 20 new projects—including 13 luxury villas and a Bang Tao condominium—by 2028. Rival firms such as...
Japan Conveys Concerns to US over Trade Terms in New 150-Day Tariffs
Japan’s economy minister Ryosei Akazawa asked U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to ensure Japan is not treated less favorably under the new 150‑day tariff regime that replaces the invalidated reciprocal levies. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global...
Bangladesh Seeks to Keep Least Developed Status Amid Economic Stress
Bangladesh’s new government has formally asked the United Nations to delay its graduation from least‑developed country (LDC) status. The request cites mounting macroeconomic stress, trade uncertainty and institutional weaknesses. Deferring graduation would preserve preferential trade benefits that shield Bangladeshi exports...
STOXX-Linked ETPs Help Lift Leverage Shares Product Trading 53% in 2025
Leverage Shares saw its leveraged ETP trading volume surge 53% in 2025, driven largely by STOXX‑linked products. The 3x Tesla ETP topped the year’s volume and remained the most traded leveraged ETP on the London Stock Exchange for a third...
Trump’s 10% Global Tariffs Take Effect After Supreme Court Ruling; 15% Hike Under Consideration
President Donald Trump enacted a 10% global tariff on Tuesday, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier sweeping duties. The administration is preparing a formal order to lift the levy to 15%, though a timeline remains unclear. The...
BDCs: The Liquid Way to Access to Private Credit>
Business development companies (BDCs) are experiencing a resurgence, highlighted by a 30‑day SEC yield of 9.21% for VanEck’s BIZD ETF and an industry‑wide yield of roughly 11.3%. Credit metrics show non‑accrual rates at 1.2% and loan prices near par, indicating...
GRDC Update: Growth Seen in Asian Feedgrain Demand
Grains Australia CEO Richard Simonaitis told the GRDC Perth Update that bio‑fuel policies are reshaping Australian grain exports, with EU canola demand driving Western Australia’s highest‑value market. At the same time, feedgrain demand in Southeast Asia is accelerating faster than...
S&P 500 Records Worst 17‑year Start, US Rank 69th
🔴This is one of the WORST starts for the S&P 500 to the year in HISTORY: S&P 500 is lagging the rest of the world equities by 8 percentage points, the worst start to a year in at least 17 years. The...
ORB Strategy Varies: Nasdaq Smooth, Gold Erratic
The opening range breakout strategy does not perform the same on every market. Backtesting the 3 minute ORB on Nasdaq futures versus Gold futures showed a clear difference. Nasdaq produced a higher win rate and a smoother equity curve with consistent expansion...
India’s Refund Rollback Lands Exporters with a Bigger Bill
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade has slashed RoDTEP export rebates by 50%, cutting both rates and value caps across all eligible categories. The move raises the effective cost of exporting, especially for price‑sensitive goods such as textiles and raw...
Spatial Patterns of Access-Density Mismatch Reveal Infrastructure Gaps and Strategic Opportunities for New Housing
Researchers Jantabadi, Ermagun, and Levinson analyze access‑density mismatch across the fifty most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. They find a statistically significant positive correlation between local residential density and both automobile and transit access, with automobile access exerting a stronger effect....
CBA Cuts 300 Jobs as It Prepares Workers for an AI-Driven ‘Shift’
Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced the elimination of 300 positions, primarily within its technology division, as part of a broader workforce reshaping. The cuts coincide with a $90 million, three‑year upskilling initiative designed to ready staff for an AI‑driven shift over...
MOL Approves Automatic Refunds for Dormant PF Accounts
The Ministry of Labour and Employment approved a pilot to automatically refund small balances in dormant Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) accounts. About 7.11 lakh accounts with balances of Rs 1,000 or less, holding roughly Rs 30.52 crore, will be transferred to the subscriber’s...
Stripe, PayPal Ventures Bet on India’s Xflow to Fix Cross-Border B2B Payments
Xflow, a Bengaluru‑based fintech, closed a $16.6 million Series A round led by General Catalyst with participation from Stripe and PayPal Ventures, valuing the company at $85 million post‑money. The startup now has over $32 million in total funding and processes roughly $1 billion in...
Bill Ackman’s Big Pivot: Why Pershing Square Bet $2 Billion on Meta—And Walked Away From Hilton:
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a roughly $2 billion, 10%‑of‑capital stake in Meta Platforms while exiting its long‑held investment in Hilton Worldwide. The move reflects a shift from a fully priced, mature hotel compounder to what Ackman sees as undervalued AI‑enabled...
The Alternative Data Arms Race: Why Hedge Funds Are Spending More Than Ever:
In 2026 hedge funds are pouring tens of millions of dollars into alternative data, turning information velocity into a core competitive lever. AI-driven analytics have lowered the barrier to processing vast datasets—from satellite imagery to web traffic—shifting the edge toward...
Cautious Holiday Spending Softens Typical January Credit Card Delinquency Spike: Equifax Canada
Equifax Canada’s Q4 2025 credit report shows total consumer debt rose to $2.65 trillion, up 3.1% year‑over‑year, driven by higher mortgage balances and a 4.5% jump in non‑mortgage debt. Non‑mortgage delinquency peaked at 1.73%, with the 26‑35 age group posting the highest...
Boom Times for Muni Bonds
State and local governments issued a record $498 billion in municipal bonds in 2024 and topped $580 billion in 2025, driven primarily by infrastructure, education, and transportation projects. The surge reflects a shift from waning federal pandemic aid to local financing for...
Japan’s National Security Reckoning
Japan is overhauling its national security strategy as U.S. “America First” policies erode traditional defense guarantees. Rising Chinese assertiveness, the spillover of the Ukraine war, and rapid advances in drone and AI warfare have forced Tokyo to prioritize strategic autonomy....
Western Sydney ‘Shack’ Listed for over $1m Ignites Debate
An aging fibro three‑bedroom house on Chapman Avenue in Penrith has been listed for $1.045 million, just below the suburb’s $1.075 million median. The property, bought for about $110,000 in 1999, would represent an 850 percent price jump if sold at the guide...
Jemmia Diamond Hosts Vietnam UAE Trade Dialogue with Ambassador
On February 9, Jemmia Joint Stock Company welcomed UAE Ambassador Dr. Bader Almatrooshi to its Ho Chi Minh City headquarters for a Vietnam‑UAE trade dialogue. The session gathered Vietnamese firms from real estate, agriculture, robotics, renewable energy and other sectors to discuss cooperation...
India Aims to Raise $19.7 Billion From IPOs of State-Run Firms by 2030
India plans to raise 1.79 trillion rupees (about $19.7 billion) by selling stakes in state‑run firms through IPOs by the 2029/30 fiscal year. The effort is part of a broader $183.7 billion asset‑monetisation drive announced by NITI Aayog, following an earlier phase that fell...
HAL Correction a ‘Wait and Watch’; Select Midcap IT Names Emerging Despite AI Disruption: Mayuresh Joshi
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) slipped 3‑4% amid order‑book optimism, prompting investors to adopt a wait‑and‑watch stance. The stock trades near 30‑times trailing earnings, making it pricey despite strong defence pipeline visibility. Mid‑cap IT names such as KPIT Technologies, Mphasis and...
Trade Opposite After Fakeout: Short Sweep High, Long Sweep Low
Turtle Soup · Sweep High = Short · Sweep Low = Long Wait for the fakeout, then enter opposite.
Turkey’s BIST Soars 24% Amid Inflows, Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
Japan Mulls Revising Liquidity-Support JGB Auctions to Ease Market Pressure - Report
Japan's Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to its liquidity‑enhancement auction framework for government bonds, aiming to ease supply pressure on the super‑long end of the curve. From April, the mid‑term bucket could be narrowed from a 5‑15.5‑year range to...
European Auto Sales Dip, EV Demand Softens Decline
European auto sales fall even as EV demand cushions the drop https://t.co/MRYjYElcs2 via @MonicaRaymunt https://t.co/fVEMCkDkcZ
China’s Lunar New Year Spending Modestly up Amid Stimulus
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
Afghanistan Bombing: What’s Pakistan’s Strategy as India-Taliban Ties Grow?
Pakistan’s military responded to a spate of cross‑border attacks by launching airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Paktika provinces, claiming to hit TTP sanctuaries and killing dozens of militants. Kabul rejected the narrative, saying the strikes hit a religious school and...
Universal Tariff Beats Currency Devaluation for Trade Balance
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH
China May Pause Reserve Dedollarization if US Eases Taiwan Stance
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
Credit Card Debt Hits a Record $1.28 Trillion—Why This Is a Problem for First-Time Homebuyers
The Federal Reserve’s latest household‑debt report shows U.S. credit‑card balances surged to a record $1.28 trillion in Q4 2025, up $44 billion from the prior quarter. This rise tightens the financial picture for first‑time homebuyers, who already face limited savings and tighter credit...
Countries Subsidize Exports, Cutting Domestic Consumption to Offset US Tariffs
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
US Needs Domestic EV Demand to Counter China’s Rare‑earth Dominance
.@dunne_insights: “China controls roughly 70 percent of rare earth mining and over 90 percent of processing capacity. Without a thriving domestic EV industry creating sustained demand, America lacks the economic incentive to build the…supply chains.” https://t.co/hU5loovdzh
Swiss Franc to Stay Favourable Amid Safe Haven Allure
The Swiss franc is consolidating its role as the premier safe‑haven currency, with EUR/CHF breaking below the 0.92 support level early this year. Analysts from RBC, Morgan Stanley and Credit Agricole argue that ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak economic data...
Algorithms, Not Humans, Now Drive Stock Selling
Exactly. I’m not sure real people are selling stocks anymore, just algo driven slop driven by news headlines tagged to “Anthropic”.
China’s Top Solar Firms Slash One‑third Staff Amid Losses
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
Accelerating Trade Imbalances Will Deepen Global Tensions
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
World Pivots to India as US Tariffs Alienate Allies
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
Citrini Predicts 38.2% Retrace by Mid‑2028
So the Citrini piece is looking for about a 38.2% retracement by mid 2028 after an October '26 peak. Fibonacci is everywhere. 👀 @JC_ParetsX https://t.co/Ppnb1uG5Xl
AI Fears Create Buying Opportunity for Strong Companies
Tech is getting hammered on AI worries, but is this really just another opportunity to buy solid companies when they are cheap? We think so. https://t.co/YjUXwZUJx9