Morning Market Brief
Lawrence Fuller reviews recent economic data, highlighting a strong finish to the year in housing starts and building permits, though noting a four‑year decline trend. He points out a better‑than‑expected 0.7% rise in January industrial production, driven by consumer goods manufacturing and tax‑law‑induced depreciation acceleration. Fuller emphasizes that these positive changes set the stage for tomorrow’s pivotal Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release, which he views as the key gauge of consumer health and inflation.
Robinhood Adds Dr. Naomi Boyd as Chief Economic Advisor
Robinhood Markets announced that Dr. Naomi Boyd, dean of the University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business, will serve as its Chief Economic Advisor. Boyd will spearhead research on derivatives market structure, capital markets, and investment dynamics to inform product...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
Govt Identifies L1 Insurers for Restructured Weather Crop Insurance Scheme in J&K
The Government of Jammu and Kashmir has appointed Agriculture Insurance Company of India and Tata AIG General Insurance as the lowest‑bid insurers for the Restructured Weather‑Based Crop Insurance Scheme. The scheme will protect apple and saffron growers in Kashmir and mango,...
Doordash Stock Climbs 14%, Reversing Plunge After Earnings and Revenue Miss
DoorDash reported Q4 revenue of $3.96 billion, up 38% YoY, but earnings per share fell short at $0.48 versus the $0.59 consensus. Total orders rose 32% to 903 million, and marketplace gross order value jumped 39%. The miss triggered a 10% drop...
Trade the Range Now, Skip Breakout Expectations
📺 STOP WAITING FOR THE BREAKOUT, TRADE THE RANGE FOR NOW Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F My core message to everyone today: stop expecting big follow-through and start trading the range that’s actually in front of you. That’s the environment right now: quick pushes,...
Pernod Ricard’s First-Half Sales Slip Limited by Improved Second Quarter
Pernod Ricard reported a first‑half sales decline across all five priority markets, with profits pressured by foreign‑exchange volatility and higher costs. The second quarter showed a modest rebound, helped by stronger demand in India and duty‑free channels. The group reaffirmed its...
China’s Military Purges Won’t Change Its Taiwan Calculus
China’s recent military purges of senior PLA officers, including CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli, are framed as anti‑corruption and ideological discipline measures. While the removals may temporarily affect command cohesion, the article argues they do not...
CySEC Withdraws License of OBR Investments
Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) announced the withdrawal of the Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) licence for OBR Investments Ltd. The decision was taken at a CySEC meeting on 9 February 2026 and is grounded in Section 8(1)(a) of the 2017...
UCITS Strategies Regaining Traction with Europe’s Wealthy
European high‑net‑worth investors are gravitating back to alternative UCITS funds, a liquid hedge‑fund‑style vehicle, as assets under management rose 22% to $287 billion in 2025. The sector logged four consecutive quarters of inflows, the longest streak in four years, driven by...
IMO NZF Would Send Stable Demand Signal for Zero-Emission Fuels
A new UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group report evaluates three IMO Net Zero Framework (NZF) scenarios and finds that only the framework "as‑is" delivers a credible, stable demand signal for scalable zero‑emission fuels. The analysis warns that removing the...
Klarna Delivers $1bn Quarter but Shareholder Returns Take Beating
Klarna posted a record fourth‑quarter revenue of just under $1 billion, a 38% year‑on‑year rise, while gross merchandise volume hit $38.7 billion, up 32%. Active customers grew to 118 million, and the firm continued its push to become a full‑service bank. Despite the...
China’s Hidden Subsidies Dwarf IMF’s 4% Estimate
FT: “The IMF estimated that China spends about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.” This is a start, of course, but just...
Physical Commodities Surge, Challenging Digital Dominance Decade
CLANCs = Copper, Lithium, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt. Copper ripped 30% in Jan, then erased ~1/3 — still ~+20% YTD. Secular shortage story → oversupply in days as inventories hit multi-year highs. For decades, digital dominated physical. The physical world is back with a...
Senate Democrats Threaten Paramount-Warner Probe
Senate Democrats are intensifying pressure on Paramount CEO David Ellison after he refused an in‑person antitrust hearing on the proposed takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. The senators, led by Chuck Schumer and Cory Booker, accused Ellison of a "pattern of...
HEI Vs. HELOC Over 10 Years: Which Costs More?
The article compares home equity investments (HEIs) with traditional home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) over a ten‑year horizon, showing how each product’s cost structure reacts to home‑price appreciation. While a HELOC accrues interest on the borrowed balance, an HEI...
Vedanta Trades at Discount to Peers; Well Placed to Benefit From Strong Aluminium Prices, Says Kotak Securities
Vedanta Ltd. is trading at a discount to its aluminium peers, and Kotak Securities believes the company is well positioned to benefit from a strong aluminium price environment. Aluminium prices slipped to $3,030 per tonne, pressured by a firmer US...
Six LNG Vessels to Sport GTT’s Tank Design
Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) secured tank‑design contracts for six new LNG carriers, four for Shandong Marine Energy via Jiangnan shipyard and two for Samsung Heavy Industries. Each vessel will carry roughly 174‑175,000 cubic metres of LNG using GTT’s Mark III Flex membrane...
Amazon Surpasses Walmart in Annual Revenue for the First Time
Amazon reported $716.9 billion in 2025 revenue, overtaking Walmart's $713.2 billion for the first time. The shift ends Walmart's 13‑year streak as Fortune's top‑revenue company and highlights Amazon's transformation into a tech‑services powerhouse. Growth is now driven by Amazon Web Services, advertising...
Russia Executes First Triple LNG Ship-to-Ship With Simultaneous Transfers From Yamal and Arctic LNG 2
Russia performed its first triple LNG ship‑to‑ship (STS) transfer in Arctic waters, linking two Arctic LNG 2 cargos and one Yamal LNG cargo to conventional tankers. The operation took place in the Murmansk region, using the Saam floating storage unit for two...
Simple, Low‑cost ETFs Outpace Fancy Strategies
I'll say it 1,000 times... Simple > complicated. A few low-cost ETFs, consistent contributions, and patience beat most “fancy” strategies. Boring plans quietly build six-figure accounts.
Kenya Drops Plan to Privatise Ports Agency
Kenya has abandoned its plan to privatise the Kenya Ports Authority, converting the agency into a publicly listed company under the Government Owned Enterprises (GOE) Act. The new law forces state‑owned entities with majority government ownership to operate on commercial,...
Accor EBITDA Beats Forecasts as RevPAR Rises 4.2%
Accor posted a 4.2% rise in RevPAR for FY 2025, driving recurring EBITDA to €1.20 bn – a 13.3% increase at constant currency that beat its 11‑12% outlook. Revenue grew 4.5% to €5.6 bn, led by a 9.8% jump in the luxury...
Mixed Currency Moves Amid Rising Iran War Risk
Hello Traders 📉 Stock futures🔻Iran war risk grows, Russia complains about Cuba oil blockade 🇺🇸 USD 🔄 mixed ahead of jobless claims, Philly Fed & trade 🇪🇺 EUR 🔻 despite stronger current account 🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ supported by higher oil prices 🇬🇧 GBP 🔻 slides...
German Car Manufacturing Sector Power Demand Could Fall
Germany’s passenger‑vehicle manufacturing sector is set to see a drop in electricity consumption as overall car output declines, VDA chief economist Manuel Kallweit warned. Power use fell to 12.86 TWh in 2024, about 2.8% of national electricity, and is projected to...
Embraer and Mahindra Eye India MRO Hub if C-390 Wins IAF Contract
Embraer and India’s Mahindra Group announced a joint plan to establish a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facility for the C‑390 Millennium, contingent on the aircraft winning the Indian Air Force’s Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) contract. The two firms have...
The Bias of Hedging on Implied Delta
In this episode the host dives into the often‑overlooked importance of delta, arguing that "delta is god" and exploring how mis‑estimating implied volatility when delta‑hedging can bias P&L. Three lenses are offered: a pure quant perspective, a trader‑focused quant view,...
Macquarie Flags ESOP Costs, Revenue Concentration Concerns over PhonePe IPO
Macquarie has highlighted two key risks in PhonePe’s upcoming IPO: elevated Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) expenses that compress EBITDA margins, and a heavy reliance on a few revenue streams that could be hit by regulatory shifts. The broker estimates...
Stay Cautious on Retail, Long Amazon, Short Walmart, Costco
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
U.S. Ethanol Efficiency Metric Surges Unexpectedly in 2025
1. Something unusual happened to a key indicator of operational efficiency in the U.S. ethanol industry in 2025. See my latest FDD for all the details: https://t.co/ehKyQvEQGp
Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Steady, as Rupiah Weakness Threatens to Delay Easing
Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% as the rupiah continued to weaken amid fiscal‑sustainability concerns and volatile investor sentiment. Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative, reflecting uncertainty over policy direction and transparency. Real‑rate differentials with the...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 27%, Ranks 6th Worst
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST currency. The Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE SUDANESE POUND & REPLACE IT WITH THE US...
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
An Update to the Update of One of My Favorite Energy Credits
The episode revisits the author’s earlier research reports from October and December 2025 on a leading natural‑gas utility, reaffirming its investment thesis built on ultra‑low leverage, a management team focused on debt reduction, high‑quality assets, and accelerating free cash flow....
China’s Growth Model Shift Faces Deep Structural Hurdles
Now that there is a consensus on what has caused the imbalances and why they are so damaging to China and to the global economy, we have to begin to understand just why it will be so difficult for China...
Upcoming Earnings Spotlight: Rolls‑Royce, HSBC, Nvidia
Plenty to talk about on today's podcast with @MrMBrown including Rolls-Royce, HSBC and Nvidia set to report as February draws to a close https://t.co/gqZEqamM2t
Kimmeridge-Mubadala JV to Acquire SM Galvan Ranch in Texas
Mubadala and Kimmeridge’s joint venture Caturus will buy SM Energy’s Galvan Ranch for $950 million, adding 250 MMcfed production from 260 wells. Post‑deal, pro‑forma net output rises to about 950 MMcfed. The acquisition gives Caturus over 275,000 net acres across the Gulf Coast...
Dollar Climbs vs G10, Stays Weak vs EM
The Dollar is up sharply in recent days. But this rise is only happening versus the G10 (blue). The Dollar remains near its recent lows versus EM (black) and that's what you want to watch for future Dollar direction. We're...
North America Leads Dollar Decline, Europe Holds Firm
FX Market Awaits North American Leadership: The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific…...
Markets Signalling a Broader Base for Upside; Positive on Financials, Says Devarsh Vakil of HDFC Securities
Devarsh Vakil, head of prime research at HDFC Securities, says Indian equities are showing a broader base for upside after rebounding from the February 2, 2026 lows. He highlights resilient corporate earnings and a particularly positive outlook for financial stocks....
Live: Team Picks Hershey Stock, Reviews Toilet Paper
We're LIVE with my accountable teammates - kicking things off with a BUY Hershey $HSY rundown by Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples , also analyzing toilet paper
Berkshire's Apple Sale to NYT Sparks Sell Recommendation
How much confidence do you have in $BRK.B now that it sells its Apple stock to buy the New York Times? For me, it is time to sell Berkshire https://t.co/YR01TZTPdL
Record AD Line, Yet Bears Outnumber Bulls Since Thanksgiving
Despite the NYSE Advance-Decline line hitting new all-time highs again yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this morning that there are actually more bears the bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving. What do you think they're so...
Equity Futures Slip, Yields Rise Slightly Ahead of Jobless Claims
Thursday: Equity futures lower, treasury yields edge higher by 1-2 bps and dollar steady. Jobless claims in focus today.
China's Auto Export Surge Hits EU Markets, Tariffs Powerless
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
INSM Projects 2026 Brinsupri Sales Minimum $1B
$INSM guides to 2026 Brinsupri sales of "at least $1B" in line with consensus. https://t.co/o7JhPKU3m1
Walmart's Earnings Slide Mirrors Modern Retail Reality
You've got the same-day delivery guy with the influencer POV phone setup. The Walmart earnings presentation cover slide is a snapshot of the state of retail https://t.co/71SdhBOqeq
Retail Private Credit Set to Reach Trillions, Threaten Industry
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
Retail Investors Dump $8.3B, Near‑Historic Outflows
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?
Belgian Dentists Shift Half Pension to Private Credit
Belgian dentists recently allocating 50% of their pension pot to private credit after volatility has come down a notch. https://t.co/vOglUU153U