A Worrying Military Build-Up in the Western Balkans?
In this episode Blerim Vela examines the accelerating military modernisation across the Western Balkans, highlighting Serbia’s post‑2015 procurement surge and its ripple effects on neighbours. He explains how NATO members such as Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia are upgrading forces to meet alliance standards while non‑NATO states like Kosovo and Bosnia‑Herzegovina pursue defensive capabilities amid a growing security dilemma. Vela underscores the legacy of 1990s conflicts, Serbia’s multi‑vector strategy, and the risk that defensive moves can be misread, potentially destabilising the region.
ARK Invest Europe's Rahul Bhushan: Defence Edges Into Core Portfolio Allocation Status
ARK Invest Europe’s Rahul Bhushan announced that the defence sector has been elevated to a core‑allocation status within the firm’s European thematic funds. The upgrade follows a surge in investor interest, with total European thematic ETF net inflows reaching $15.8 bn...
Front-Loading Financial Aid: Watch Out For This Sneaky Trick
The episode explains the practice of front‑loading financial aid, where colleges award larger grants to freshmen and then reduce grant amounts or the percentage of recipients for upper‑classmen. Data shows that over 80% of four‑year institutions, especially public schools, cut...
Fixed Income Disaster: Will Investors Ever Forget?
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
Philippines’ Central Bank Delivers Expected Rate Cut Paired with Uncertain Guidance
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, matching market expectations. However, the central bank softened its forward guidance, dropping language that it was nearing the end of easing and emphasizing lingering confidence...
ISDA’s Amy Hong: ‘North Star’ Is Safe and Efficient Markets
ISDA’s new board chair Amy Hong reaffirmed the association’s 40‑year mission to keep derivatives markets safe and efficient, while charting a 2026 agenda focused on technology and regulatory alignment. She highlighted the continued push to finalize Basel III trading‑book rules and...
Weekly Newsletter 19 February 2026
Albemarle announced the care‑and‑maintenance status of its sole remaining lithium‑hydroxide train in Australia, sparking concerns about the nation’s downstream ambitions. Despite this setback, new projects from Tianqi, Mineral Resources and other players are slated to come online by 2028, keeping...
Nikkei Rises; Buy Nikkei ETF Amid FX Risks
Nikkei +0.71%; real estate, banks, textiles led; VIX-Nikkei 27.89. Leaders: Yokohama Rubber, Omron. Risks: FX (USD/JPY 155.11), commodity shocks. Trade: buy Nikkei ETF. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nordic Power Market Competition Heats Up
The episode examines the upcoming launch of Nord Pool's electricity futures contracts and the resulting scramble for liquidity across the Nordic power curve, with Nord Pool CEO Tom Darrell and EEX CEO Peter Reitz debating who will dominate. It also...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 19 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its official gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on 19 February 2026, quoting prices per gram and per troy ounce. The top tier – Fire Assay cash for gold above 100 g – is $152.01 per gram ($4,728.04 per...
Who Killed FCAS?
FCAS (Frequency Control Ancillary Services) prices in Australia’s NEM have plummeted since late 2023, falling to well below $2/MW h after a multi‑year decline. The collapse coincides with a rapid expansion of registered FCAS capacity, driven largely by utility‑scale batteries, demand‑response...
True Market-Cap Exposure to Communication Services>
VanEck launched the Communication Services TruSector ETF (TRUC) to give investors true market‑cap exposure to the Communication Services sector. Traditional sector ETFs are constrained by diversification rules that cap single‑stock holdings at 25% and limit the total weight of stocks...
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
Trade Information Warehouse Successor Event Processing for Civitas Resources, Inc. - Revised
DTCC’s Trade Information Warehouse (TIW) announced a successor event for Civitas Resources, Inc., transitioning its reference entity to SM Energy Company. The auto‑auto adherence will rename all related transactions effective February 13 2026, with processing occurring February 25‑27 2026. Market participants must un‑adhere any...
Blackstone’s “Defensive Pivot” Week: Home Services Deal + AI Infrastructure:
Blackstone announced the acquisition of Champions Group, a leading home‑services provider, while Odyssey and its management retain a minority stake. Simultaneously, the firm is leading a financing round of more than $1 billion for Neysa to build India’s premier AI‑infrastructure platform....
Brookfield “Top-Performing Alternative Firm” Unshaken in 2026 by AI or Private Credit:
Brookfield Asset Management has emerged as the top‑performing alternative firm in 2026, outpacing peers as AI and private‑credit turbulence reshape the industry. Its portfolio is anchored in global infrastructure, renewable power, and essential services that generate contracted, inflation‑linked cash flows....
No Reason to Believe India Has Changed Stance on Purchasing Crude Oil: Russia’s Foreign Ministry
Russia’s foreign ministry asserted that India has not altered its policy on buying Russian crude, emphasizing the mutual benefits of the trade. However, Indian import data for January 2026 shows a 40.5% drop in total merchandise from Russia, with crude...
‘We Have some Work to Do’: Nasdaq Stockholm’s President on Losing Klarna to New York
Nasdaq Stockholm’s president warned that the exchange must act after Klarna chose a New York listing, a move that underscores growing competition from U.S. markets. Last year Nasdaq Stockholm and its Nordic peers captured 60% of Europe’s equity capital‑market activity,...
Turkey Launches Ramadan Food Price Crackdown as Inflation Anger Intensifies
Turkey’s government has banned chicken exports and launched a nationwide crackdown on "exorbitant" food prices as Ramadan begins. Trade inspectors are sweeping markets for hoarding and misleading practices, with fines up to TL 1.8 million for violations. Food inflation is running at...
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
A Brief Illustrated History of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: 1914-2026
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has undergone dramatic swings since its 1914 inception, expanding modestly for decades before exploding after the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2022 the sheet grew from roughly $0.9 trillion to over $9 trillion, driven by large‑scale...
Japan Deep‑Value Activism: Why Now Is the Time
It was great to join @alxlowen and Dale Gillham of @Wealthwithin in the studio in Melbourne recently to discuss Senjin Capital’s Japan-focused deep value shareholder activist investment strategy for the The ALx Report and Talking Wealth. Dale brings a wealth...
Daily One‑Concept Finance Lessons for Overwhelmed Beginners
If personal finance overwhelms you, I hope you find my page I post every day on IG trying to teach you just one new concept. Literally my only goal
GrainCorp Confident of Global Grain Market Rebalance
GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway told shareholders that global wheat oversupply of 18 million tonnes is driving low prices and tighter margins for grain handlers. Growers are holding back grain, reducing market availability, but the company expects inventories to rebalance eventually, though...
90% of Govt Money Creation Neutralized by Bond Sales
I've been teaching this for decades, and now the data proves it: 90% of government money creation between 2000 and 2024 was cancelled out by secondary bond sales. The system we have actively destroys the money governments create. EconomicReform
GRDC Update: Pulses a ‘Slow Burn’ as WA Seeks Wider Rotation
At the GRDC’s 2026 Perth Update, a pulse panel highlighted the modest share of pulses in Western Australia’s record 27 million‑tonne harvest—just 1 % compared with 4.4 Mt of canola. Researchers and growers argued that improved soil liming, longer‑term rotation planning, and newer...
How Did China’s Guangzhou Tee up a Surge in South Korean Tourists?
South Korean golfers are flocking to Guangzhou, with bookings rising over 300% year‑over‑year after China introduced a 30‑day visa‑free travel policy. The surge is evident at venues like Holiday Islands Golf Club, where Korean visitors jumped 81% while Chinese traffic...
LYV Breakup Could Be Off the Table Following Summary Judgment Ruling
The episode examines Live Nation’s (LYV) recent legal landscape, focusing on a summary judgment that could keep the company’s proposed breakup off the table. It breaks down the court’s reasoning, the potential financial and operational impacts for Live Nation, and...
Fed Minutes Omit 2% Inflation Target Date, Signaling Uncertainty
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
Job Creation Soft
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that January 2026 saw a modest net increase of 18,000 jobs, with full‑time employment rising by 50,500 and part‑time employment falling by 32,700. Total employment reached 14,703,800 and monthly hours worked climbed to 2,013 million, while...
Robinhood’s Earnings Expose Risks for $HOOD Investors
If you’re a $HOOD investor, you’ve probably suffered a wild ride in recent months. The company just issued its latest earnings, which reminded the market of the dangers of Robinhood’s business model.
3 Southeast Asian Leaders Arrive in Washington for ‘Board of Peace’ Summit
U.S. President Donald Trump convened the inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington, pledging over $5 billion for Gaza reconstruction and positioning the forum as a potential rival to the United Nations. Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia attended, each pursuing distinct economic...
U.S. Refiners Accuse Trump‑linked Scheme in Venezuelan Oil
U.S. refiners want to cut out traders & Chevron from Venezuelan crude purchases. They see the Trump setup as a RIP OFF Barrels now must move thru an elite club of approved middle men. Want to bet there's a grift component flowing to...
India's 6.5% Growth Beats China, Fastest Major Economy
As the World Bank notes, India is the fastest-growing major economy. India's growth rate of 6.5% is even outpacing China's. https://t.co/3S7a6Z6LbT
Banker Calls for Peak Banker
National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine warned that Australia has hit "peak Australia," signalling that without a productivity boost the economy will stagnate. Real wages fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the pressure on living standards. Irvine...
TCS Likely to Meet Lower Targets Despite Chart Decline
TCS will still achieve my lower targets I think - the chart is already wrecked - targets given by Indiacharts Research
India Drives South Asia's 6‑7% Growth; Rest Lags
According to the World Bank, South Asia growth stays near 6-7%. Strip out India, and the region slows sharply. India is the growth story. https://t.co/Q8e7g9b1j3
Wealthy Critics Face Naïve “Just Pay More” Replies
When I post that wealthy people like me should pay higher taxes, I receive hundreds of comments saying, “You know you can just pay the government more, right??” So it’s comforting to see that billionaires like @TomSteyer also get the same...
North Korea's Inflation Soars to 74.6%, World’s Third Highest
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr — that’s the THIRD HIGHEST IN THE WORLD. Kim’s rockets fly, but inflation is what’s truly SKYROCKETING. https://t.co/EbYJ0oBnAW
Korea's Index Slides Below Historical Average After 150% Surge
It’s wild how Korea’s stock index is trading below its historical average following a nearly 150% price rally https://t.co/TyCTVuO5pW
US Iran Strike Would Spark Prolonged, Global Fallout
If the US strikes Iran, it won’t be a weekend event, writes @TheMichaelEvery Retaliation risks include terror cells in Europe The broader Middle East is flammable Energy markets are rightly pricing tail risk—but the real question is duration, not ignition #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics...
IMF: China's Export Growth Harms Its Trading Partners
The latest IMF analysis of China (The staff report/ Article IV) highlights that China's export driven growth has come at the expense of its trading partners. That is welcome, and very necessary message 1/many https://t.co/RTYAzRkFAv
China Buys US LNG, Redirects It to Europe
China hasn’t stopped buying U.S. LNG It’s just not burning it at home. Long-term contracts still bind the two systems Flexible LNG markets let China arbitrage politics by diverting cargoes to Europe. Does anyone on Team Trump know this? https://t.co/CacMbcaSMk #LNG #China #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #TradeWar #NaturalGas
Power Costs, Not Tariffs, Decide Aluminum Smelter Survival
Trump tariffs couldn’t save a major U.S. aluminum smelter Smelting lives or dies on cheap, reliable power AI and data centers now outcompete metalmaking for electricity. Tariffs are the minor leagues. Energy is the big show. https://t.co/z7ZanDwxd5 #Aluminum #EnergyPolicy #Manufacturing #AI #Trade #PowerMarkets
Geopolitical Fears Add Incremental Risk Premium to Oil
Oil rallied on fear Iran headlines + Israel alerts = instant risk premium in a tight market But geopolitics don't matter. Except they do in small continuous increments that convert to a steady aggregate premium. https://t.co/6vQGj7YEmu #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #Iran #EnergySecurity #crudeoil
TLT Call Skew at 90th Percentile, Expect Shakeout
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
AI Era Demands Open Access, Not User Lock‑In
the software playbook used to be: lock users in, protect the workflow, build the moat. a day before blowout earnings, @zoink told us the opposite, don't be sacred about locking in users in the AI era. "Start anywhere, go everywhere."...
Korean Reforms Spark Value Ups, Awaiting IBKR Access
I initially thought the Korean reforms would be ineffective. But on the ground, I’m seeing many companies come up with highly positive value up plans. And valuations remain a fraction of those in Japan. Once IBKR opens access, the focus...
Libya Redirects Oil Payments From Russia to Western Traders
Libya is cutting Russia out of its oil trade Fuel imports are shifting away from Russia toward large Western traders Sanctions didn’t “punish” Libya into changing behavior. They reshaped who gets paid. https://t.co/pmKRlqgEK1 #OilMarkets #Libya #EnergyGeopolitics #Sanctions #OPEC #crudeoil
Confirm Bearish RSI Divergences with Price Levels Before Acting
Bearish RSI divergences can hint at a major top — but only if price & key levels confirm. Momentum can fade while price still grinds higher. Patience & confirmation are essential. My latest article on @StockCharts: https://t.co/sDlIJ3WADG