Elbridge Colby: ‘NATO Is Actually Stronger Than Ever.’
Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Munich Security Conference that NATO is stronger than ever and is evolving into a "NATO 3.0" model that shifts conventional defense responsibility to Europe while the United States underwrites the nuclear umbrella and a $1.5 trillion defense budget. He reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Article 5 and highlighted new spending pledges from European allies, positioning the alliance for a more sustainable, results‑oriented posture. Colby also described the U.S. approach to China as firm yet respectful, emphasizing strength‑based engagement rather than hawkish confrontation.
Russia ‘Not Serious’ About Peace Deal, Lindsey Graham Says
Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters at the Munich Security Conference that Russia is not serious about a peace deal, contradicting President Donald Trump’s optimism. Graham argues Moscow believes it can win the Donbas militarily and will only negotiate after securing...
A U.S. ‘Debt Spiral’ Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth,...
The CBO projects publicly held U.S. debt will surpass 106% of GDP by 2030 and reach 120% by 2036. Average Treasury interest rates are expected to climb to 3.9% by the end of the forecast, outpacing nominal GDP growth that...
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
Cabinet Approves India’s First Underwater Road-Rail Tunnel Project in Assam
The Indian cabinet has approved the nation’s first underwater road‑rail tunnel, to be constructed in Assam across the Brahmaputra River. The project will link Assam with Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, streamlining freight movement and lowering logistics costs. Officials say the...
Keep It Simpler
A retiree shifted assets to an independent RIA seeking broader alternative investments, accumulating numerous illiquid limited partnerships that generate K‑1 tax forms. Over time, several of these alternatives underperformed, exposing the investor to locked‑up capital and heightened tax complexity. The...
Recommended Weekend Reads
This weekend’s reads dissect the shifting geopolitics of NATO under Trump’s “quiet‑quit” strategy, the erosion of U.S. reliability among European allies, and Germany’s push to become Europe’s new defense hegemon. They also examine the economic fallout of Trump’s expansive tariff...
REITs Hit Decade‑Low Valuations: Rare Investor Opportunity
REITs are currently trading at their lowest valuations in decades. The vast majority of investors are not positioned to take advantage of this historic opportunity. 🧵Here's a 'Mini Masterclass' on how to take advantage:
Buy Manappuram on Pullbacks Amid RBI
Macro: PE flows target Indian NBFCs. RBI cleared Bain's up to 41.7% in Manappuram; ₹43.85bn injected. Risk: regulatory scrutiny. Trading insight: buy Manappuram on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
ECB Enhances Repo Facility for Central Banks
On 14 February 2026, the ECB’s Governing Council approved an overhaul of the Eurosystem repo facility for central banks (EUREP). The revised framework introduces standing access for a broad set of non‑euro‑area central banks, provided they meet anti‑money‑laundering and sanctions...
Value Tilt Gains as Momentum Spread Widens 16%
Classic monotonic pattern. When you see this pattern you know with a higher degree of certainty that it is one of THE drivers of how investors are positioning their portfolios. We’ve been recommending a value tilt since last fall, as...
Nothing But Net
The Security Analysis Podcast’s Feb 14, 2026 episode reviews Mark Mahaney’s book *Nothing But Net*, which distills ten timeless stock‑picking lessons from a veteran tech analyst. Mahaney, an early internet‑era analyst, survived both the dot‑com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis while...
India Doubles Down on State-Backed Venture Capital, Approving $1.1B Fund
India has approved a $1.1 billion state‑backed venture capital fund aimed at deep‑tech and advanced manufacturing startups. The fund of funds will channel government capital through private VC firms, building on a 2016 program that invested over $2.8 billion in 1,370 startups....
Start Investing Now, Reach $1M By Retirement
If you’re 25 and don’t end up a millionaire, you might need a wake-up call, because I just showed you how. Invest $100 a month from age 25 to 65 at the average S&P 500 return over the last 40 years,...
Energy Leads US Sector Gains; Financials Fall
🇺🇸 US Sector Performance in 2026 📈 $XLE Energy up 22% $XLB Basic Materials up 18% $XLP Consumer Defensive up 16% $XLI industrials up 12.8% $XLU Utilities up 9% $XLRE Real Estate up 8% $XLV Healthcare up 2% $XLY Consumer Retail -2% $XLK Technology -2.5% $XLF Financials -5%
Single by Choice: Valentine’s Day Is No Longer a Relationship Deadline
New data from Agile Data Solutions shows 68% of single Filipinos are single by choice, a trend the firm calls "Intentional Singlehood." Respondents cite personal, career, and financial goals as primary reasons, while Valentine’s Day elicits neutral feelings for two‑thirds...
MAG7 FREE CASH FLOW COLLAPSE
The episode examines the recent collapse in free cash flow among the MAG7—Microsoft, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, and Meta—highlighting how their once robust cash generation has sharply deteriorated. It explores the drivers behind this decline, including macroeconomic headwinds, higher capital...
Super-Spiked Videopods (EP91): Long-Takes From The Road: FAQ on "Take Risk"
In Episode 91, Arjun Murti delivers a rapid FAQ on the "take risk" messaging his podcast has been using throughout 2026, focusing on how companies should shape corporate strategy amid a maturing US shale oil sector. He reflects on the...
China Financials: The Great Rotation’s Overlooked Engine
The episode examines China’s financial sector—banks, brokers, and emerging digital intermediaries—as the engine behind the anticipated “great rotation” in the 2026 equity outlook. It explains how tightening yields and improving credit conditions are creating nuanced opportunities beyond a simple "buy...
Nifty May Plunge to 19k Amid Global Macro Risks
The Nifty Can Crash to 19000 due to Global Macros - Prepare Now - Hindi ... https://t.co/gKdPPrx6C6 via @YouTube The video discussed the current market setup, IT sector view, which sectors are the weakest. Why we got here and where...
Tsukuba Research Park Draws Attention at SEMICON Japan 2025
The Ibaraki Prefectural Government showcased Tsukuba’s Cutting‑edge Research Park at SEMICON Japan 2025, highlighting its role as a new hub for semiconductor R&D. The park hosts TSMC’s first overseas research and development facility within AIST and sits alongside 29 national...
Yen Poised for New 2025 Lows Amid
The Yen will keep falling in trade weighted terms in 2025 and make new lows. Two reasons: (i) Japan remains in denial on the scale of its debt and what's needed to fix this; (ii) the Yen will be falling...
Global Data Week: FOMC Minutes to RBA Jobs
Buckle up! Its going to be a VERY Busy Data Week ahead👇 🇺🇸 US -FOMC Minutes -Q4 GDP -Empire State & Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -IP -ZEW -PMIs 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -Retail Sales -CPI -PMIs 🇯🇵 JP CPI & GDP 🇨🇦 CA -CPI -Retail Sales -Trade 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PSI -PPI 🇦🇺 AU -RBA MINUTES -JOBS -PMIS
VGMS: This New Low-Cost Active Bond ETF Is Growing
Vanguard launched the Multi‑Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS) in June 2025, offering a 5.19% SEC yield and a low 0.30% expense ratio. Over the past eight months the actively managed fund outperformed the benchmark AGG by 93 basis points, delivering...
China to Continue Dominance of Global Ammonia Supply
China is projected to supply roughly one‑third of the world’s ammonia by 2030, cementing its role as the dominant producer and consumer. Strong agricultural demand for nitrogen‑based fertilizers and a broad industrial base, from steel to plastics, underpin this growth....
Saudi Arabia Appoints New Investment Minister
Saudi Arabia has appointed Fahad Al‑Saif as the new investment minister, replacing Khalid Al‑Falih who moves to a minister‑of‑state role. Al‑Saif previously led the Investment Strategy and Economic Insights Division at the Public Investment Fund, shaping long‑term capital allocation. The...
SWPC Rebrands as Sharakat to Reinforce PPP Focus
Saudi Water Partnership Company has rebranded as Sharakat to underscore its expanding public‑private partnership (PPP) role in the kingdom’s water sector. The change aligns with Saudi Arabia’s National Privatisation Strategy, which aims to secure more than $64 bn in private‑capital water...
Slowing Indian Software Growth Threatens Earnings and Valuations
Such a long post for a simple point - IT is here to stay - I agree But if software revenue growth, especially in India, drops from 9% p/a to 3% p/a, earnings growth goes to zero, and we are paying...
Warsh Fed Expected to Slash Rates 100bps, Dollar Falls
My forecast is for the Warsh Fed to cut policy rates by 100 bps in the 4 meetings after he takes over (June, July, September, October) ahead of midterms. Markets are moving in this direction, but still price only 63...
Cabinet Clears Rs 11,000 Crore Highway Projects in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana Under PM GatiShakti
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved highway projects worth over Rs 11,000 crore across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Telangana. Maharashtra will upgrade a 154.6‑km stretch of NH‑160A for Rs 3,320.38 crore, Gujarat will build a 107.67‑km 4‑lane segment of NH‑56 for Rs 4,583.64 crore, and Telangana...
Russia's Inflation Spike Tied to Excess Money Supply
Russia’s inflation comes in at 6.0%/yr in January. That's ABOVE RU's 4%/yr target. RU's M2 money supply is growing at 10.6%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Poor Nations Double Youth Disengagement Compared to Rich Countries
How rich-country advantages compound. More than twice the share of young people in poor countries are not in employment, education or training. This and more insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/pokvStfn3w
Rubio to Europe: ‘We Care Deeply’
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a sweeping address at the Munich Security Conference, urging a renewed, values‑based transatlantic partnership. He blamed de‑industrialization, unchecked migration, and climate‑policy mandates for eroding Western sovereignty and called for a joint push to...
USD Poised to Rise if Congress Regains Tariff Control
Wouldn’t that be something: $NVDA earnings 25th with SCOTUS decision on tariffs anytime after 20th… #IEEPA USD bullish in the short term if they hand back tariff control to Congress 🎰 $VIX
ECB Overhauls Euro Liquidity to Strengthen Currency Appeal
ECB revamps euro liquidity offer to boost the common currency’s appeal https://t.co/w17qKKKWLo via @jrandow https://t.co/FlhSjhqFkD
The Cocoa Crash: Is the Bottom Finally In?
The episode dissects the recent turbulence in the cocoa market, highlighting a modest 0.77% price bounce despite a projected 287,000 MT surplus and a 22% sales drop from major players. It explores the concept of "supply ghosts"—beans stranded at Ivorian...
Iran's Inflation Hits 81.5%, World's Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 81.5%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/HcSee4i4O2
Brent Dips 30 Cents; 12‑month Spread Signals Flat Outlook
Brent futures price fell $0.30 from $68.05 to $67.75 week ending February 13 12-month spread suggests sideways price movement on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/hYd0O6d84E
Dedicated Freight Corridor Won’t Divert Cargo Volumes to Competing Ports, Says APSEZ
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) says the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) will not erode cargo volumes at its flagship Mundra Port. The company cites Mundra’s deep draft, faster vessel turnaround and integrated logistics ecosystem as structural advantages...
WTI Spreads Tighten as Front-Month Price Slips
Show me the glut WTI 12-month spread narrowed $0.06 (2%) for the week ending February 13 6-month spread narrowed $0.11 (9%) Front-month price fell $0.66 (1%) from $63.55 to $62.89 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/1VHaA5PFZN
EU Boosts Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite
During 2025, Chinese exports to the EU jumped by 6.3%. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = EU PIVOTS TOWARDS CHINA. https://t.co/tkz6F9xAsN
Honda, Toyota Voice Concerns over EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan
Japanese and British automakers Honda and Toyota have warned that the European Union’s proposed “Made in Europe” plan could limit their market access. The initiative, driven by EU Executive Vice‑President Stephane Sejourne, seeks to curb cheap Chinese imports and boost...
Stocks Are only Cheap During Economic or Business Crises
There are really only two times when stocks become "cheap": collectively, - usually when the health of the economy is in question, - and, more narrowly, when the viability of a business or its industry is in question. You...
Shell Forecasts Global GDP to Double by 2050
Shell base case assumes sustained 3.3% global growth GDP nearly doubles by 2050 #GlobalGDP #EconomicGrowth #EnergyScenarios #Shell #Macroeconomics #GrowthAssumptions #LongTermForecasts https://t.co/meXF1PuaVe
Modi Leveraged Trump Tariff Threat to Advance Free Trade
My take on PM Modi's clever move to reduce India's punishing tariffs and non-tariff barriers: "Modi used the tariff threat from Trump as cover to push for free trade between India and other countries." MODI = SMARTER THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/aTUbO8em04
Markets Price 2.5 Fed Cuts as Curve Flattens
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
Debate: Should S&P Reclassify HOOD to Gaming?
Should S&P move $HOOD from Financial Services to Gaming? Put it in an entirely different GICS category? @RealJimChanos
Markets Discount Fed Cuts Amid Japan Election, Tariff Uncertainty
Week Ahead: SCOTUS Decision on Tariffs? 8 Fed Officials Speak as the Market Discounts almost 65 bp of Cuts this Year: Last week began with the LDP's stunning victory in Japan. However, rather than sell-off as the market expected, the...
Dollar Decouples: US Growth Rises as USD Falls
Great piece by @katie_martin_fx in the @FT on the correlation break happening for the Dollar. As Trump leans more and more on the Fed, positive data surprises like payrolls no longer lift USD. The US will boom this year. But...
Anti‑Trump Bias Skews Dollar and Inflation Forecasts
A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's...