Market View: For Gas Prices, a Tale of Two North Americas
The Northeastern United States is enduring its coldest winter in over three decades, pushing spot gasoline prices to a significant premium. In contrast, Western Canada is enjoying its warmest winter in a century, easing local fuel costs. The divergent weather patterns are creating a pronounced price gap between the two regions. Energy analysts attribute the split to differing demand spikes, refinery utilization, and cross‑border pipeline dynamics.
Sabra CEO: Skilled Nursing M&A Remains Relationship-Driven and Limited in 2026
Sabra Health Care REIT sold seven skilled‑nursing properties for $51 million in Q4, signaling a sharp pullback in nursing‑home M&A for 2026. The REIT’s pipeline will focus almost entirely on senior housing, which represents roughly 95% of its investment opportunities and...
Oil Prices, Feb. 13, 2026
Oil prices rose on Feb. 13, 2026 as OPEC+ announced an extension of its production cuts through 2027, supporting a tighter market. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels, further tightening supply. Brent crude settled at $84 per barrel,...
Money Managers Near Record Soybean Futures Buying on US‑China Optimism
📈Money managers staged a near record buying spree in CBOT soybean futures & options in the week ended Feb. 10 on renewed U.S.-China optimism. New net long = 123,148 contracts. Net buying of 94k contracts was the second most for any...
Retirement Tax Planning Is About Managing Tradeoffs, Not Following Rules
Retirement tax planning is less about rigid rules and more about managing timing trade‑offs over a lifetime. The article stresses that focusing on minimizing taxes in a single year can increase total tax burden due to higher effective marginal rates,...
Early Estimates Point to Lower Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment for 2027
Social Security delivered a 2.8% cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, boosting benefits by roughly $56 per month. Early government inflation data suggest the 2027 COLA could be markedly lower, with estimates ranging from 1.2% to 3.1%. Analysts warn that a...
Brazil Corn: Bids Rise Further
Bids for Brazil's Santos/Tubarao and Barcarena/Itaqui corn cargo markets rose on Friday, driven by a sudden influx of buyers ahead of the Carnaval holiday. Sellers, however, remain reluctant to negotiate, limiting the sustainability of higher prices. Farmers are curbing forward...
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
JEPI: Improving Economic Conditions Should Uniquely Benefit This Fund
JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) uses a covered‑call strategy to target 7‑9% annual distributions, positioning it as a low‑volatility, income‑focused vehicle. The fund has consistently met its payout goals since inception, appealing to risk‑averse investors seeking steady cash flow....
Export Momentum Carries Corn Market Into New Year
U.S. corn prices remain buoyed by robust export demand that persisted into early 2025, according to Compeer Financial economist Megan Roberts. While prices are still below target levels, the export momentum offsets downward pressure. Roberts noted that a nationwide E15...
Central Alabama Water Downgraded by S&P
S&P Global Ratings lowered Central Alabama Water’s revenue‑bond rating to AA‑minus from AA and placed the issue on CreditWatch Negative. The downgrade reflects weakening liquidity, high debt levels and aging infrastructure, compounded by delayed budget adoption after a state‑mandated governance...
Figures on Automotive Securitization Tapes: Definitions Report - February 2026
The Fixed‑Asset Securitization Tracker (FAST) released its February 2026 Definitions report, detailing the data fields used in automotive securitization tapes. The document supplies precise definitions, code tables, and cross‑references to related transaction disclosures. By standardizing terminology, the report aims to simplify...
BATT Charges Ahead as Storage Steals the Spotlight
The Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT) has surged 14.5% year‑to‑date, outpacing the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) and other pure‑play mining funds. Its 0.59% expense ratio and $117 million assets give investors exposure across the entire...
Higher Costs and Lower Prices Driving U.S. Cotton Acreage Decline
U.S. cotton growers are scaling back planting this spring as production costs surge 30% and farmgate prices slump, according to National Cotton Council data. The National Cotton Council’s grower survey shows intended acreage dropping to nine million acres, down from...
Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: February 13, 2026
Brownfield Ag News reported mixed grain and livestock futures on February 13, 2026. Corn edged higher to $4.31 per bushel, while soybeans fell to $11.33. Livestock showed divergent moves: feeder cattle rose 42 cents to $366.15, whereas lean hogs slipped 55 cents to $91.27....
Capital Shifts to Value: Cash Flow Beats Future Promises
Leadership didn’t vanish; it rotated. Capital moved from high-growth tech into value, dividends, and economically sensitive sectors. When rates stay higher and scrutiny rises, cash flow today beats promises tomorrow. Style matters again.
Argentina's Drought Continues to Hit Corn, Soy
Argentina’s early‑February drought is already cutting corn and soybean yields, with Córdoba corn farmers reporting 10‑20 % losses and average yields falling to 6.4‑7 t/ha. In the core soy region, more than 500,000 t of soybeans are lost, pushing yields to about 3.8 t/ha....
USDA Issues $1.89 Billion in Emergency Livestock Relief Program Payments to Farmers
The USDA’s Farm Service Agency has released $1.89 billion in Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) payments, representing the final disbursements for producers who applied for 2023‑2024 flood and wildfire assistance. Recipients who previously received partial payments will now receive a second...
Why a Tariff Ruling Could Mean Consumer Relief
Arunima Sinha explains that a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the president's authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could sharply reduce tariffs on many consumer goods, lowering the effective tariff rate from about 15% to the...
1944: Ask Farnooosh: Birthday Money Truths, Market Warnings and Relationship Finance
In episode 1944, Farnoosh answers listener questions about birthday money etiquette, market warning signs, and relationship finance. She debunks myths about gifting cash, highlights red flags in the current market such as over‑valuation and rising rates, and offers strategies for...
Friday Footnotes: What Are The Cash Markets Trying To Say
In this episode, host examines the disconnect between grain futures narratives of abundant supply and weak demand and the reality observed in cash markets, emphasizing that U.S. farmers are still selling despite thin margins. The discussion highlights how rising cash...
Bond Yields Fall After CPI Report Shows Tamer Inflation
U.S. Treasury yields fell after the January CPI came in cooler than expected, pulling municipal bond yields lower as well. Despite the softer inflation print, analysts say the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold and consider only a...
Old Leaders Fade; Adapt Fast to New Trading Landscape
The leaders of last year are no longer the favorites. The trading landscape is changing, and you have to adapt quickly to keep an edge.
US Supreme Court Says Next Friday Will Be a Decision Day
The U.S. Supreme Court announced three decision days—Feb. 20, 24, and 25—when it will issue opinions, though it has not disclosed which cases will be decided. Lawmakers in the House have voted against new tariffs and the Senate is expected...
QQQ Is Hedging Hard, But Not Panicking
The episode dissects the current QQQ options market, highlighting that skew and risk reversals are at historic highs, indicating expensive downside protection and a defensive bias among investors. Despite heavy put activity, call participation remains steady and speculative far‑out‑of‑the‑money buying...
Weather Experts See Drought Relief Potential Under El Niño Shift
U.S. weather forecasters see a shift from La Niña to El Niño by summer, driven by warming central Pacific waters. The transition is expected to bring a wetter spring and an early‑summer rain pulse before a drier late‑season spell. Experts cite analog...
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Fed's Goolsbee Sees Encouraging and Concerning Parts of the CPI Report
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted a mixed CPI report, noting a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a steady 2.5% year‑over‑year rate. While core inflation matched expectations, services inflation remains elevated, keeping overall inflation around 3% and...
Correction to EU Biodiesel Prices on February 13: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets announced a correction to several EU biodiesel FOB ARA prices published on February 13, 2026, after a calculation error incorporated prior‑day data. The revised figures show modest adjustments, such as UCOME outright rising to $1,419.50 per tonne and RME...
BDC Quarterly Letters: Refusing Write‑Downs, Defying Pressure
Every BDC quarterly letter should just say “we are choosing not to mark this down and you can’t make us.”
Kuwait Lags UAE in Oil Capacity, Faces $90.5 Break‑Even
Kuwait's production capacity was ahead of the UAE's in 2010. Now it is 3.2 Mbpd versus 4.85 Mbpd Budget break-even is $90.5 per bbl and oil is 83% of the budget https://t.co/1si82Sc7pF
US Climate Rollback Set to Raise Gasoline Prices
The EPA’s own analysis shows that eliminating federal greenhouse‑gas standards for cars could lift gasoline prices by up to 29% by 2050, adding roughly 75 cents per gallon in constant dollars. Over the 2026‑2055 horizon, consumers may face a net...
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
Biggest Stocks Push S&P 500 Margin to Record 12.6%
"The exceptional profitability of the largest stocks boosted the aggregate S&P 500 profit margin to a new record high of 12.6% in 4Q" - Goldman https://t.co/5fnYCaoDhm
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the day's agricultural market activity, noting a shift toward consolidation and profit‑taking ahead of the President’s Day holiday, which typically boosts contract positioning. It highlights mixed South American weather impacts, with particular focus on Argentina’s continued crop...
Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat
Visa total return the last decade or so basically all earnings growth; P/E unchanged while change in EPS estimates roughly equal TSR https://t.co/wYh3Mkz7Aq
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
AI Agent Traffic Drives First Profitable Year for Fastly
Fastly reported its first profitable fiscal year, posting $172.6 million in Q4 2025 revenue, a 23% year‑over‑year increase. The growth is driven by a surge in AI agent traffic, which now represents 29% of all web requests on Fastly’s edge network....
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
BOE's Pill: Rates Slightly Too Low, Should Stay
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
SPY Likely Drops Below $670 Before Hitting $690
Some ask. What do I think next week. The next ten $spy points. I’d say below $670 before above $690
China's Massive Surplus Threatens IMF Balance
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
Steel Stock SLX Surges: Rare Early Buying Opportunity
Helpful context. Your competitors completely missed this epic Cyclical ramp in the Steel Stocks $SLX and today's one of our 1st Buying Opportunities in a while
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Signal Strength Recommends Holding Nucor Stock
Sam @SamofAmerica , Signal Strength says to stay with Nucor $NUE here. What say you?
DWSH Slides 1.3% as Borrowing Costs
Drosey Wrong $DWSH down another -1.3% and they're trying to jack up the borrow, sad
Professional Energy Bet After Yesterday’s Red Close
If you were buying more Energy Exposure via $XOP $OIH into a red close 24 hours ago, professionally done