IEA Dials Back Its Oversupply Warning After Winter Shocks
The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2026 oversupply warning after a surprise 1.2 million barrels‑per‑day supply drop caused by cold snaps in the United States and a power‑outage‑forced shutdown at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field. Europe’s gas inventories fell to just 35 % of capacity, pushing the TTF benchmark above Asian LNG prices and prompting calls for additional LNG cargoes. The EU tightened its sanctions on Russian oil, lowering the price cap to $44.1 per barrel and expanding a maritime services ban, while Western tanker participation in Russian exports slipped to 23 %. Meanwhile, Canada’s Shell‑backed LNG Canada project accelerated, loading a record ten cargoes in January, with South Korea emerging as the top buyer.
US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat
The latest U.S. inflation report appears modest, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ decision to assign a zero year‑over‑year change to housing components that were not surveyed during the recent government shutdown artificially depresses the CPI reading. This methodological adjustment...
BSE Gets Sebi Nod to Launch 'Focused Midcap Index' Futures and Options Contracts
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has secured SEBI approval to roll out cash‑settled futures and options on its new Focused Midcap Index, which tracks the top 20 mid‑cap companies by free‑float market capitalisation. The contracts will be monthly, expiring on...
US Inflation Details Offer Room for Deeper Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. consumer price inflation in January eased to 0.2% month‑on‑month, with core CPI matching expectations at 0.3% and both headline and core year‑on‑year rates falling to four‑year lows of 2.4% and 2.5%. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat,...
Crises Everywhere, but the Markets Don’t Seem to Mind
Despite a cascade of wars, pandemics, social unrest and economic strain, global equity markets are soaring, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the 50,000 mark. The article argues that this disconnect is not a glitch but a structural feature:...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode reviews a flat QQQ market after CPI data and a broad Asian sell‑off, then dives into earnings from Arista Networks (ANET), Applied Materials (AMAT), Roku, CarT, and Airbnb. Arista beat expectations, raised its FY26 growth outlook to ~25%...
Market Regulator Sebi Floats Proposal to Revamp ETF Price Band Framework
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has issued a consultation paper proposing a overhaul of ETF price‑band rules. It recommends moving the base‑price reference from T‑2 closing NAV to T‑1 data or recent indicative NAV, and introducing dynamic,...
Morning Market Brief
In this Morning Market Brief, host Morris Fuller outlines a recent pullback in futures, attributing yesterday's broad market decline to AI-driven disruptions affecting transportation, logistics, real‑estate, and financial‑services sectors. He emphasizes that while some industries suffer, others stand to gain...
EUR/GBP Bounces From Daily Lows as Eurozone GDP Supports the Euro
Eurozone preliminary GDP showed a 0.3 % QoQ rise in Q4 2025, matching expectations and nudging annual growth to 1.4 %. The United Kingdom posted a weaker 0.1 % QoQ increase, missing forecasts and pulling annual growth to 1 %. The data lifted the...
US January CPI +2.4% Y/Y vs +2.5% Expected
U.S. consumer price index for January rose 2.4% year‑over‑year, missing the 2.5% consensus, while month‑over‑month inflation eased to 0.2% against an expected 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.5% y/y and 0.3% m/m, in line...
With Competitors Hot on Its Heels, How Can Singapore's Port Stay the Course?
Singapore’s port recorded a historic 3.22 billion gross tonnes of vessel arrivals and 44.66 million TEUs in 2025, marking 3.5% and 8.6% growth respectively over 2024. The hub remains second only to Shanghai, with Ningbo‑Zhoushan closing the gap, while contributing roughly 7%...
Bhatia Communications Sets Record Date for Third Interim Dividend Payable in FY26
Bhatia Communications & Retail announced February 20 as the record date for its third interim dividend for FY 2025‑26, offering Rs 0.01 per equity share. The dividend is payable to shareholders holding shares before that date. The announcement follows a December‑quarter earnings beat,...
Morgan Stanley Said to Consider $500 Million India Fund, Shifts some Assets
Morgan Stanley Investment Management is exploring a $500 million continuation fund focused on India, intending to transfer eight healthcare‑related assets, including Omega Hospitals and RG Scientific, into the new vehicle. The move signals the firm’s effort to provide existing investors an...
Wipro, Infosys, TCS and 9 Other Stocks Hit 52-Week Lows and Slip up to 20% in a Month
A wave of weakness hit India’s blue‑chip segment as the Sensex slumped nearly 1,048 points, pushing nine BSE 200 stocks to fresh 52‑week lows. Leading IT giants Wipro, L&T Technology Services, TCS and Infosys each fell between 14% and 19% over...
TOST Q4 Margins Surge, Profit Spikes over 200%
$TOST Q4: Operating income +140% YoY, net income +216% YoY. Margins expanding across the board. Revenue came in at $1.63B, up 22% YoY. Growth moderated vs +25% last quarter, but profitability stepped up meaningfully. Gross profit grew 27% YoY with gross margin...
19 MENA Startups Graduate From the Second Exel by Merak Accelerator Cohort
Nineteen MENA game studios have graduated from the second cohort of Exel by Merak, an $80 million gaming accelerator launched by Merak Capital. Each studio receives $300,000 in seed funding plus mentorship and global network access. Cohort 2 has already produced $1.2 million...
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
US CPI Data Expected to Show a Mild Decline in Inflation in January
U.S. consumer price index data for January showed annual inflation easing to 2.4% from 2.7% in December, missing the 2.5% market forecast. Monthly CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI remained at 2.5% year‑over‑year, matching expectations. The softer headline number nudged...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
Energy Power Plays Trump, Russia, China Militarize Oil
Trump talks "deals" with Iran while Russia & China talk about naval escorts of Iranian oil to Cuba, writes @TheMichaelEvery The US repeals carbon regs & hopes to restart Venezuelan oil output soon. Energy is being militarized Markets, sanctions & climate...
Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD Fails to Find Acceptance Above $79.00
Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $77.35 on Friday, unable to sustain a breakout above the $79 resistance level. The metal is trapped below the 50‑period SMA at $81, reinforcing a bearish technical bias. A firm US Dollar Index and cautious market...
EIL Q3 Profit Soars over 3x YoY to Rs 302 Crore
Engineers India Ltd (EIL) posted a net profit of Rs 302 crore for Q3 FY2025‑26, more than three times its profit a year earlier. The surge was driven by a dramatic rise in turnkey contract earnings, which jumped to Rs 273.68 crore from Rs 18.92 crore,...
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
Short‑term Bond Shorts Suffer as 5‑Year Yields Surge
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
TF1 Leans on TF1+ Momentum as Ad Market Softens
TF1 Group posted 2025 revenue of €2.297 bn, a 2.5% decline driven by a softening advertising market, especially in Q4. Media division revenue fell 4.5% to €1.921 bn while Studio TF1 grew 9.2% to €376 million. The digital platform TF1+ delivered a 35.8% jump...
PMI's Q4 Results Reshape Valuation and Investment Outlook
In subscribers' inboxes this morning Philip Morris International: The Next Phase $PM - Q4 earnings - Combustibles formula - HTU durability - Pouch uncertainty - Valuation + capital returns - My investment decision (newsletter link in bio) https://t.co/gcDQdJkcds
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
India Bond Traders Seek Buybacks as Yields Climb Despite Switch
Indian bond traders are pressing the government for buybacks as 10‑year yields climb despite a recent debt‑switch operation. The benchmark 10‑year yield rose to 6.6878%, up about five basis points after the Treasury swapped ₹755 billion of FY27 bonds for longer‑term...
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
Unilever Earnings: Solid Volume Growth and Margin Expansion; Shares Fairly Valued
Unilever reported fourth‑quarter underlying sales up 4.2% with volume rising 2.1%, and delivered a full‑year operating margin of 20%, outpacing forecasts. Power brands now account for 79% of sales, reflecting a strategic shift toward higher‑margin categories. The company’s focus on...
AAP Soars Post‑Earnings as Call Buyer Adjusts
$AAP ripping on earnings as call buyer been adjusting and right for weeks here https://t.co/NDM9mXOd3k
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
Most AllianzGI Funds Pass Assessment of Value Test
An independent Assessment of Value test has evaluated Allianz Global Investors' UK fund lineup. The majority of the funds received a positive rating, indicating they deliver good value to investors. A subset were amber‑flagged, meaning they only meet basic value...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
The 5ers Introduces Overnight Futures Prop Trading
🚨 @the5erstrading releases details for @The5ersFutures On my panel at @iFXEXPO they said big things were coming… Only futures prop to allow overnight holds Looks like the evolution is here. What do you think - strong proposition or not competitive enough?👇
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
McGough Urges Immediate Buy of GameStop Stock
McGough LIVE on The Call right now saying BUY Gamestop $GME on the open @HedgeyeRetail
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
AI‑linked Firms See Growth, yet Stocks Tumble
The market is now punishing even those companies which are beneficiaries of AI. These businesses are accelerating their revenue growth and their management is explicitly stating that AI is a tailwind, yet their stocks are being crushed. Unreal.
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
Friday the 13th Rally Masks Monday’s 18% Drop
Stocks are up an annualized 22.6% on Friday the 13th. What really should scare you is a simple case of The Mondays, as stocks are down 18.3% on Monday. #FridayThe13th https://t.co/M74coxbyXF
Cargill Shuts Milwaukee Plant, 221 Jobs Lost Amid Herd Slump
"Cargill to Close Milwaukee Beef Facility, Cutting 221 Jobs on Herd Decline" https://t.co/R3enSgd7lj "An industry turnaround isn’t expected soon, as there are few signs of a much-anticipated rebuilding of US herds." 😬
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
Investors Unwittingly Swap Value Stocks for Overpriced Picks
The funny thing is that in this value rotation, many investors are unknowingly shifting from value stocks to expensive ones. https://t.co/wliuup8rSq
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF