Morningstar DBRS Confirms Czech Republic at AA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the Czech Republic’s long‑term sovereign rating at AA and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high), keeping the trend stable. The agency cites a solid 2.2% GDP growth outlook through 2027, a modest fiscal deficit of 2.1% of GDP that may widen slightly, and public debt around 46% of GDP. A new coalition government plans modestly looser fiscal measures—higher energy subsidies, tax cuts and partial pension roll‑backs—while remaining anchored to EU fiscal rules. Strong external buffers, including high official reserves and a flexible CZK, help mitigate downside risks from the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices.
Telia Q1 Net Income Jumps 226% on Growing B2B Enterprise Deals
Swedish telecom Telia reported first‑quarter net income of 1.66 bn Swedish krona ($150 m), up from 510 m SEK a year earlier, as its B2B segment added sizable enterprise contracts. The company reaffirmed its full‑year service‑revenue outlook, signaling confidence in its corporate‑customer strategy.
Why Free Cash Flow Should Be Front of Mind in Today's Market
VictoryShares’ free‑cash‑flow (FCF) ETFs—VFLO and the newer GFLW—offer a low‑concentration alternative to the AI‑driven “Magnificent Seven” dominance that now makes up over 30% of the S&P 500. By screening for companies with strong free‑cash‑flow yields, the funds include only one Mag 7...
Tractor Supply Get Help From Digital Sales in Q1 Earnings Results
Tractor Supply reported fiscal Q1 net sales of $3.59 billion, a 3.6% year‑over‑year increase, helped by the opening of 40 new stores. Comparable store sales rose only 0.5%, reflecting softer discretionary spending on pet supplies. Digital channels delivered a bright spot,...
Realized Vol Decline Boosts Systematic Stock Tailwinds
1M realized vol is starting to roll over. Vol control funds are stepping back in with mechanical buying. As realized vol drops, systematic flows turn supportive, and that should be a tailwind for stocks into next week.
Supply Vs. Demand Oil Shocks: Asymmetric Realities
Oil demand shocks are one thing; oil supply shocks are another. Nothing is symmetric. Even government policy responses are different. Comparisons among various shocks in the last 50 years are not an easy task. They require detailed knowledge of: 1. history 2. geography 3....
Next Week’s Menu: April 25 – May 1, 2026
A packed week of monetary‑policy meetings is slated for the United States, Japan, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Canada, Hungary, Ukraine, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, with post‑meeting press conferences from Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Ueda, BoC Governor Macklem...
UAE USD Swap Lines May Fund China Investments
So…will the USD swap lines Bessent is going to give UAE going to finance the UAE’s newly-signed investments in China? Or are the USD swap lines so UAE doesn’t have to sell USTs to make these investments in China? Or do the...
Oil Slump Signals Waning Demand, Not Bullish Optimism
The narrative is that oil crashing is bullish — inflation cools, the consumer wins, rate cuts come sooner. Maybe. Or maybe oil is crashing because global demand is quietly rolling over and nobody wants to say it out loud. Energy...
Global Central Banks Decisions Highlight Next Week's Calendar: Market Volatility Ahead
Global central banks will dominate the week, starting with the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Monday and culminating in a packed Thursday of Bank of England, European Central Bank and key U.S. data releases. The Federal Reserve and Bank...
Caution: Record‑High Markets May Not Be Wise Investment
Should we invest when the stock markets are at record highs? The UK government and big investment platforms have launched a campaign helped by a Savvy squirrel 🐿️ but the Bank of England says financial markets are too high....
Forex Reserves Rise to $703 Billion; Rupee Slips 14 Paise
India's foreign exchange reserves jumped $2.3 billion to $703 billion in the week ending April 17, driven by higher foreign‑currency assets and a revaluation of dollar holdings. The rupee slipped 14 paise, closing at 94.25 per dollar, as foreign investors and private oil firms...
Why Crude Prices Won’t Fall Back to Levels Seen Before the Iran War Anyti...
SLB and Halliburton warned that crude oil prices will stay elevated longer as the Iran‑Israel conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. Both companies cited supply interruptions, infrastructure damage and a heightened geopolitical risk...
Nvidia’s Stock Heads for First Record Close in 6 Months — Thanks to Intel
Nvidia’s shares surged 4.3% to close above $208, marking the chipmaker’s first record high since October 2025. The rally was sparked by Intel’s stronger‑than‑expected Q1 earnings, which lifted Intel stock 23.6% to $82.57 and reinforced confidence in the broader semiconductor...
Lawyer Designs Protection; Fiduciary Ensures Real‑world Execution
A lawyer structures the protection. A fiduciary makes sure the strategy actually works in the real world: — Assets — Real estate — Liquidity — Risk
Europeans Must Recognize US, China and Russia Are ‘Dead Against’ Us, Says Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the United States, China and Russia are now "dead against" Europe, urging EU members to defend their own interests and act with greater self‑confidence. He added that the strain in transatlantic relations will likely...
Redeem NAV, Buy Discounted Public BDC: Simple Arbitrage
Redeeming a nontraded BDC at NAV and buying the corresponding public one at a discount. Funny WSJ is calling this an "arbitrage."
US Slaps 123% Anti-Dumping Duty on Indian Solar Imports
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti‑dumping duty of 123.04% on solar cells and modules imported from India. The duty, added to existing countervailing tariffs of over 125%, pushes the total tariff burden above 200%, effectively sidelining Indian...
Cut Costs Ruthlessly to Truly Pay Yourself First
everyone wants to talk about the “pay yourself first” part of profit first, but no one wants to take the steps to implement the ruthless elimination of expenses part that actually allows you to pay yourself first & well. (most...
Discipline Required; Impatient Traders Lose to Smart Money
No discipline = no profits. This setup shows how smart money traps impatient traders using inducement and liquidity. If you don’t wait… you lose. Learn the game. Master the edge. #ForexReels #TradingSetup #SmartMoneyForex #ICTModel #reels
Earnings Next Week: Big Tech Takes Center Stage
Earnings season has outperformed expectations, with roughly 80%‑85% of S&P 500 firms beating forecasts and profit growth tracking 13%‑16% year‑over‑year. The outperformance is concentrated in technology and AI‑related firms, while energy benefits from high oil prices. Next week’s calendar is...
Spring Relief Masks Rising Serious Delinquencies
Mortgage performance in March showed a seasonal dip in overall delinquency to 3.35%, the typical spring improvement, and prepayment speeds surged to their strongest level in almost four years. Yet serious delinquencies rose, with 154,000 more borrowers 90‑plus days past...
Renewables Dominate CAISO, Gas Share Drops 60%
To date in 2026, fossil gas has met only 16.7% of demand on the CAISO grid, versus 41.6% in 2023. -->Gas is down 60% since 2023. In 2026, WindWaterSolar has met 51.5% of demand, three times that of gas 23 straight...
Activist Push Targets Genco; Aim for $26
Macro: activist pressure on Genco; Key: Diana 14.8%, offer $23.50 vs $23.42, FV $26; Risks: poison pill, board resistance; Trade: long Genco toward $26. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Struggling to Decode Fog of War
The Strait of Hormuz crisis entered a new, volatile phase as Iran's IRGC seized two European tankers, pushing Brent crude above $106 per barrel. The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast to 3.1% and lifted inflation expectations to 4.4%, underscoring...
Uber and Robinhood Show Opposite Signals at Same Valuation
Same price. Same ValueTrigger. Opposite signals. $UBER: PERFECT ENTRY. R40 fails at 35. Sleeping giant. $HOOD: PARTIAL ENTRY. R40 at 108 — Hyper-Elite. I sold $UBER at $80. Now my system says buy. I could be wrong about the AV timeline. But the...
S&P 500 Hits Record, Gains 12.5% Over Four Weeks
S&P 500 record high.. up 4 weeks in a row.. +12.5% in that stretch @stockcharts https://t.co/LwE87EC6mR
Regional Equity Investors Find Little to Cheer
Thai equities remained under pressure as the SET index slipped 1.8% to 1,456.10 points, driven by foreign selling of 5.86 bn baht and concerns over an upcoming MSCI rebalance that could trim the market’s weight. Retail investors provided a modest cushion,...
ITA Aerospace & Defense Suffers Second-W
$ITA Aerospace & Defense 2nd-worst week since late 2020... odd with oil up and the war ongoing -7% https://t.co/xWZSAtzZld
Tech ETF XLK Surges 21%, Outperforms S&P 500
There's 1 sector ETF beating the S&P 500 this month.. $XLK tech.. up 21% https://t.co/QfPQ8uGRJh
SOX Rides 18‑day Winning Streak, Gains 4% Today
$SOX perfect April continues... up 18 in a row +4% a banger today too https://t.co/eR5Iha571n
Gold, Powell, and Oil Shock Shape Portfolio Strategies
I was on Kitco today with @JeremySzafron. We talked gold, Powell, portfolio construction, and the dynamics of this oil shock. Great show, Jeremy. https://t.co/OikyF9Y4SE via @YouTube
Money Supply Surge Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
My take on @PalisadesRadio on America’s inflation problem: "The US will have trouble getting the inflation genie back in the bottle because the money supply has been accelerating for 18 months, growing faster than Hanke's Golden Growth Rate." https://t.co/0f14uwnTFx
Court Ruling May Void COVID IRS Penalties, Claim Refund
A court ruling (Kwong) could mean that COVID-era IRS deadlines were paused, some penalties/interest may not have been valid & you may be able to claim a refund. ⏰ Deadline: 07/10/26 ⚠️ Likely appeal—consider filing a protective claim Worth a look: https://t.co/gOvV9Lmucl
Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke &...
Market's EPS Surprise Reaction Remains Muted
Market Rewarding Positive EPS Surprises Slightly Less Than Average @factset also punishing negative EPS surprises reported by S&P 500 companies for Q1 less than average. https://t.co/QQufKB4FnT
S&P 500 Forward P/E Tops 5‑Year and 10‑Year Averages
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). @factset https://t.co/spURH0fHEF
Most S&P 500 Firms Beat EPS and Revenue, Grow 15%
84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, and 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. @factset The blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 15.1% https://t.co/Nsrr48cr7k
Investors Prefer Brent Dates, Futures Marriages Mislead Markets
Investors and media have often dated Brent but married futures (thanks, I'll be here all week). A lucid new @CSIS primer explores this dynamic and why it sends false signals — a hot topic these days. Link in next post....
US Market Not Top‑Heavy; Dollar Still Reserve Power
Two myths that aren't true 1.) The US stock market is top heavy 2.) The US Dollar is losing reserve status Neither are remotely true, yet we hear them all the time https://t.co/ONyZtCOXpe
Republicans Push Bill to Protect Commercial Solar Tax Credits
Republican lawmakers propose bill to preserve commercial solar tax credits #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/ndh1a3g5my
Will Market Makers Allow QQQ 0DTE Expirations?
Are market makers going to let 0DTE and weekly call options in $QQQ expire at these price levels on a Friday?
Europe’s High Energy Prices Cause Rationing, Not Demand Destruction
Goldman says Europe is seeing “demand destruction” from high energy prices. Not quite — this is rationing, not demand responding to price. That distinction matters more than it sounds. 🧵
Advisors Boost Value by Tailoring Client Tax Withholdings
Our #WeekendReading this week includes a timely trio of articles on tax planning, including one on how advisors can offer value to clients by working with them to adjust their withholdings and receive the tax refund (or payment) they desire...
US Oil Rig Count Drops 3: Real Decline or Relocation?
US oil-directed rig count declined by 3 last week. Is this actual decline or "relocation"?
ARKK Stagnates Year‑to‑Date, No 2021 Euphoria
$ARKK is flat on the year. This is not a generalized market euphoria like 2021
Insiders Pile Into PTX Metals as Drills Turn
@inkresearch reports officers at @PTXMetals $PTX.V $PANXF have bought relentlessly since Jan 2024, adding over $870,000 worth of shares, including CEO @GregFerron who has bought over $230K worth of shares. Indeed, it often pays to follow the insiders- especially as...
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
No Training Prepares You for the Market’s Final Third
“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” — Paul Tudor Jones
China Polysilicon Prices Hit Floor as Output Drops
China polysilicon hits cost floor as producers curb output amid weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/jGWoOcYhf9