CRE Pricing Notches Up in March; Near-Term Outlook Uncertain
The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index rose 0.4% in March, bringing its 12‑month gain to 2.6% but keeping it 15.5% below the 2022 peak. Investors hoped lower rates would boost prices, yet a brief dip in 10‑year Treasury yields was reversed by heightened geopolitical risk, notably the Iran conflict, pushing yields higher. While office, student housing, strip retail and manufactured housing posted the strongest annual gains, office values remain 35% below their 2022 high, highlighting sectoral disparity. The near‑term pricing outlook remains uncertain amid volatile financing conditions.
Robinhood’s “Free” Trades Generate $4.5B Revenue
Day 3 of 30: How $HOOD Robinhood actually makes money Spoiler: "free trading" was never free... $4.5B in revenue in 2025. Up 52% Here's who's actually paying 🧵
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grains opened the week higher, led by wheat gains after rain fell across the Southern Plains. Reduced global grain production forecasts from U.S. competitors and a strong energy complex further buoyed prices. Soybeans showed mixed movement, with the fourth day...
Euro Continues to Climb as the Market Senses an End to the Iran War
The euro has recovered to its pre‑conflict level as traders price an end to the Iran‑Israel war and the reopening of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe’s heavy reliance on Hormuz‑bound crude makes the currency especially sensitive to...
A 10‑Second Checklist Filters Out Bad Trades
3 things I check before EVERY trade. Takes 10 seconds… but it filters out low-quality setups fast. Most traders don’t have a checklist. That’s the problem. Comment “CHECKLIST” 👇 I’ll send you the full setup guide free. #daytrading #futures #tradingtips #vwap
Manhattan Rents Hit Record $5k, Supply Crisis Persists
New monthly report: Median rents in Manhattan remain at record high $5k/month. +6% over past year. Avg. for 2-bed hit all-time high $8,166. Lack of supply is driving these sky-high rents: "In March, Manhattan’s rental market remained incredibly inventory constrained. With just...
Why Lenders Could Be Tightening HELOC Requirements in 2026
Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) surged 16% year‑over‑year between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, driven by record‑high U.S. homeowner equity of roughly $17.8 trillion. In 2026 lenders—especially non‑bank and fintech firms—are tightening terms, often demanding borrowers draw 50%‑100% of the line upfront....
Netflix Ad Tier Set to Double Revenue, Price Target $700
Netflix's ad-supported tier is crushing it. Analysts now project its ad revenue will DOUBLE to ~$3B this year. Bullish outlook has one firm raising its price target to $700. 📈 Streaming
Call Traders Target Steel Stock Before Earnings
Cleveland‑Cliffs (CLF) shares rose 4.4% to $9.36 as call options surged, with 813,000 calls and 292,711 puts traded in the past two weeks. The stock, down 29.4% year‑to‑date, is approaching its Q1 earnings on April 20, a report historically followed by...
Palantir Poised for Reversal, +4.5% Surge Confirmed
PLTR As noted in Saturday’s Weekly Compass (link attached), price action was primed for a reversal. Following today's +4.5% surge, the full analysis is a must-read to manage risk and identify potential targets. Daily Levels for Palantir are posted in...
3 Reasons to Buy the Dip on Peabody Energy Stock
Peabody Energy Corp (NYSE: BTU) shares have fallen 13.8% this month, sitting at $28.34, roughly 45% below their eight‑year high of $41.14. The stock is testing its 200‑day moving average, within 0.75 of the average true range, a signal that...
Goldman Shares Fall on Imperfect Quarterly Results. Here's Our Advice on the Stock From Here
Goldman Sachs posted Q1 2026 revenue of $17.23 bn, up 14.4% YoY, and EPS of $17.55, surpassing forecasts. Investment banking drove growth, with revenue up 48% and advisory fees soaring 89%, while the FICC line lagged expectations. Shares slipped just over...
Prolonged Hormuz Strait Closure Would Have ‘Profound’ Impact on Mining: Friedland – by Frederic Tomesco (Northern Miner – April 13,...
Ivanhoe Mines co‑chairman Robert Friedland warned that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would sharply tighten global sulfur markets, cutting roughly half of the seaborne sulfur supply. With about 20% of worldwide copper production dependent on sulfuric‑acid leaching,...
Forty Years After Chernobyl, Uranium Market Rebounds but Fragility Persists – by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou (Ecofin Agency – April 12,...
Forty years after the Chernobyl disaster, the uranium market has rebounded, with spot prices climbing to $101 per pound in early 2026. The surge reflects renewed global interest in civil nuclear power as part of the broader energy transition. Higher...
Three Simple ETF Strategies: Income, Dividends, Growth
If you want income, buy: $JEPQ $QQQI $JPC $HYB If you want Dividend growth, buy: $SCHD $SPHD $SPYD $PEY If you want stock growth, buy: $VOO $SCHG $QQQ $VGT Don’t overcomplicate it
How Homeownership Helps Build Wealth
A new NBER study led by Wharton professor Fernando Ferreira shows that mortgage modifications during the Great Recession had lasting wealth benefits. Seventy‑five percent of borrowers who received forbearance or rate cuts remained homeowners through 2013, versus 49% without aid....
OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2026)
The latest OPEC+ Data Deck reveals a March production drop of 7,587 kbpd, bringing quota‑participating output to 28,312 kbpd – the second‑largest monthly decline on record and the lowest level for the expanded group since the 1990 Desert Storm period. The fall...
18 Genius (& Kind Of Unhinged) Ways Real People Are Paying Down Their Debt
A wave of social‑media‑driven debt‑payoff hacks is gaining traction, from selling plasma and unwanted items to daily micro‑deposits and dopamine‑linked spending tricks. Users on TikTok, Reddit and other platforms share concrete examples—donating plasma for $80,000, flipping furniture for $100‑$150 a...
Is Goldman Sachs Reheating Financial ETFs After Earnings Beat?
Goldman Sachs delivered a first‑quarter 2026 earnings beat, reporting $17.55 earnings per share and $17.23 billion in revenue, both above analyst expectations. The outperformance was driven by a resurgence in global dealmaking and strong equities trading, even as the VIX spiked...
Global Physical Oil Supply Picture Is Dire - And Getting Worse
Physical oil is now trading at $149 per barrel for North Sea Forties, a stark contrast to futures contracts. The Iran‑Israel conflict and a U.S. blockade have pushed crude loss to 15 million barrels per day, pulling global stockpiles down by...
Mastering Zero DTE with Altos Trading: Unveiling the Golden One Day Options Trade and Market Insights
Altos Trading unveiled a systematic "Golden One Day" options play that targets zero‑days‑to‑expiration (Zero DTE) contracts. The strategy combines high‑probability entry signals with tight risk controls, aiming to capture daily market volatility while limiting capital exposure. Altos provides members with...
Adobe's Stock Slump Masks Strong Fundamentals and Value
Is $ADBE a falling knife, as AI is disrupting them? Or a misunderstood opportunity? $ADBE -57% 5Y 🔴 -36% YTD 🔴 - Really Strong Margins - Incredible 9.8% BuyBack - $26B ARR - Cheap Valuation - 32% Below Consensus Price Target
Employees Can Invest Alternative Assets Into Their 401(k)s. Here's What to Know
The U.S. Department of Labor has proposed a safe‑harbor rule that would let 401(k) plans offer alternative assets such as private equity, real estate and cryptocurrencies. The rule, issued under Executive Order 14330, aims to shield plan sponsors from fiduciary liability...
Bonds Are In 2026 What Stocks Were In 2008
Investors are eyeing bonds as aggressively as they chased stocks in 2008, driven by Treasury yields approaching 5% and 2‑year CD rates near 4%. The author notes that a sustained 5‑5.5% yield on 10‑20‑year insured municipal bonds would be compelling...
Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Futures Show This Will Be a Short-Run Problem (Why He's Wrong)
Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee argued that the steeply backwardated oil futures curve proves the current price spike is a short‑run issue. The article counters that backwardation reflects immediate physical scarcity and a high convenience yield, not a forecast of...
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: A(nother) Look at Long/Short Direct Index Tax-Loss Harvesting
Leveraged long/short direct‑index tax‑loss harvesting (LSDI) lets investors swap a concentrated, high‑cost‑basis stock for a diversified basket without paying capital‑gains tax up front. The authors model a $10 million Shopify holding and find that manager fees—0.5% on the long side and...
Strong Fundamentals, Weak Stock: Valuation Drives Returns
$ADBE Since 2020: 🔴 Stock Price -30% 🟢 Revenues +85% 🟢 EBITDA +91% 🟢 FCF +86% This is a clear example that valuation is everything. You might be right on the business fundamentals, but be wrong on the stock performance. Was $ADBE incredibly overvalued then, or is...
IEA Anticipates Additional SPR Releases Amid Gulf Shutdowns
IEA ready for further SPR releases on top of the record 400 million barrels already announced. Even if this crisis ends by the end of the month the market is looking at upwards of a BILLION barrels unproduced given Gulf shut-ins. Won't...
War-Driven Fuel Costs Add New Twist to Trans-Pacific Service Contract Talks
The war in Iran has caused bunker fuel prices to double across key global hubs, prompting container lines to shift refueling operations to Europe as Singapore’s supply tightens. This surge in fuel costs is being passed to shippers through higher...
OKLO Surges Above 10/21 MA, Short Float Highlights
$OKLO back over 10/21 ma and the gap up from last week test and bounce. Note the short float. https://t.co/shm0yFO6wS
WTI Backwardation Stays Massive at $6.06 per Barrel
The backwardation in US WTI crude futures (active nearby - second contract) is +$6.06... Was as high as +$16.50, but this is still enormous. Blue is the OVX oil volatility index: https://t.co/mGUKpZpzet
Iran's
@ResourceTalks I mention what most people miss: that I am the only reliable source of inflation measurements in Iran. "Since the war started, the Iranian rial has appreciated about 9-11% against the dollar, and inflation is down from over 80%/yr to...
Upgrade 40% Bond Allocation with Active Defense
The 60/40 portfolio needs an upgrade on the 40 side. Static bond allocations don't position well in credit events. $JOJO adds an active layer of defense. https://t.co/r7U1174Vtd
CAR's Parabolic Rise Signals Imminent Hard Break
$CAR fascinating to watch. At some point this will break hard. No idea when. Many days up in a row matching a parabolic move but no real gap ups yet. https://t.co/Ekb8TEWcyJ
Buy Front-End On
Solid strategy to buy the front end when pricing hikes. Trump generally turns it around with a positive spin. 5s up more than 10 ticks since the Globex Sunday night open.
Geopolitical Tensions Offer Buying Opportunities, Says Yardeni
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC that geopolitical events are buying opportunities, even as Trump announces plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/L0aaO4wMJK
Dollar Resists Petrodollar Collapse, Fueled by U.S. Counterattack
The “petrodollar collapse” story gets it backwards. China was eroding it slowly. The Iran war just forced the U.S. back into the game. Control flows, control currency. The storm is real. The dollar isn’t dying—it’s fighting back. https://t.co/7oWpaZUa7T
Chevron to Secure New Western Venezuelan Oil Fields
#Venezuela: Chevron is set to expand its oil footprint in Venezuela. The government in Caracas will award the company additional oil fields in Western Venezuela as soon as Monday, sources tell @zerpius @CrowleyKev and me ahead of an expected announcement https://t.co/L9MMsDKfTs
Housing Market Shifts to Demand Destruction, Setting up Snapback
The housing market has flipped from scarcity → demand destruction. Prices likely soften, but the bigger story is collapsed activity. This is a rate-driven cyclical slowdown, not a balance-sheet crisis. It sets up a future snapback trade once affordability improves.
30‑
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.41% Same day last year: 7.07% --------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.31% Spread today: 210 bps
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
FGFH's 9% ROE Boosts Stock, Yet Remains Undervalued
Today’s state of community bank stocks. $FGFH printed a 9% ROE quarter today. The stock is up 44% in the last year and still trades below book value. Perhaps justified as the improved results still don’t earn independence. https://t.co/1Uj2Cz2dR2 https://t.co/EFXtj5yKpY
Merck's $30B Offer Now Exceeds Revolution's Market Cap
Reminder that Merck tried to buy Revolution for $28-$32B (per Jan reporting from FT), vs current market cap after today's great data of $26.5B https://t.co/hoq2P0oiG9
NVDA Returns To
$NVDA @marketsurge #IBDPartner back to this fantastic 10 month base -- once this goes, it could run for a while so keep on radar. https://t.co/wQvDk0xXVV
True Housing Shortage only 1 Million, Not 10 Million
Our housing shortage estimate is 1 million, and it’s shrinking. This 10 million figure far exceeds all other estimates I’ve ever come across over the years.
Miner Rally Mirrors Early 1970s Bull Market
Miners haven’t truly broken out yet... In this new presentation from Thoughtful Money, I walk through why today’s setup resembles the early 1970s bull market. If you’re wondering whether this rally is getting tired—or just getting started, watch here: https://t.co/WVeReceJL2
Market Reclaims ATH AVWAPs, Ideal for Long Management
Idk the future - I do know A LOT of areas of the market are back above their former ATH AVWAPs and they serve as great levels to manage long positions against.
Oracle Oversold: Potential Breakout Amid Excessive Selling
$ORCL was oversold and underestimated. This may or may not be a real breakout, but the selling was way overdone proportionally to its upside. 👏🏻
US Oil Shift Doubles Asia Shipping Distance, Cuts Supply
Replacing Persian Gulf supply with US barrels doubles shipping distances to Asia This effectively cuts deliverable supply due to tanker availability. https://t.co/MorwvZn1VE
AI Boosts Enterprise Cyber Stocks; Selloff Offers Bargain
The best of breed cybersecurity and infrastructure software stocks have been punished by the market. AI is a tailwind for the high quality enterprise-grade vendors and the current selloff is a good opportunity.