Interview with Jasmine of Money Magpie
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod discusses the potential collapse of the fiat currency system, drawing parallels to the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation and the subsequent surge in gold prices. He argues that fiat money depends on confidence and credit, but governments are overwhelmed by unsustainable debt, leading central banks to resort to endless quantitative easing when bubbles burst. This dynamic, he warns, causes currency devaluation while driving gold upwards, signaling a possible systemic monetary reset. The conversation underscores the risks of perpetual debt-fueled monetary policy and its impact on investors.
KOSPI Surges +1.57%: Hardware Sovereignty (Samsung)
In this episode LoRosha analyzes the February 4 Asian market session, highlighting a 1.57% rise in the KOSPI driven by Samsung Electronics breaking the 169,000 KRW mark and reaching a $720 billion market cap. He argues that despite heavy foreign net...
PayPal Shares Plunged 86% From the 2021 Goofball High and Right Into Our Imploded Stocks
PayPal’s stock tumbled 20% to $41.70 after it reported a Q4 earnings miss, weak total payment volume growth, and announced a surprise CEO change, appointing HP chief Enrique Lores as its new leader effective March 1, with CFO Jamie Miller serving...
The Hidden Cost Of Investment Income
The episode explores a new Longview Research Partners analysis that challenges the traditional view of bond interest and REIT dividends as portfolio positives, showing that forced investment income can erode over 1% of after‑tax wealth for high‑net‑worth investors. The hosts...
Economy & Earnings Are Heating Up
The latest Yardeni Quick Takes forecasts a robust 2026, targeting the S&P 500 at 7,700 by year‑end and 10,000 by 2030. Treasury yields are expected to hover between 4.25% and 4.75%, while gold is projected at $6,000 per ounce now and...
Scarce Reserves
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
Markets Say “Wrong Kevin”, Xiaomi & Ford Could Partner Up
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
Running of the Bulls
The episode reviews recent market volatility, noting that despite modest index moves, asset class swings were significant and the S&P 500 closed January with a gain—a historically bullish signal that correlates with strong annual performance. It highlights the energy sector’s...
Plumbing Notes: A Global Compression
In this brief update, the host explains how the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity injections have compressed the SOFR‑FF basis, pushing overnight SOFR rates to just a few basis points below the interest on reserve balances (IORB). Major banks, led by...
Interview with Jesse Day of Commodity Culture
In this episode, host Alasdair Macleod and guest Jesse Day of Commodity Culture explore the theory that China is amassing silver to eventually back the yuan with a silver standard, a move that could accelerate the dollar’s decline. They discuss...
No Glut in Sight: Why Oil Bears Remain Mistaken—Despite OPEC+ V8 Easing the Taps in April
The episode explains that recent oil price gains are driven primarily by sharp production cuts in the United States and Mexico caused by an unusually harsh winter, rather than by OPEC+ policy changes. Geopolitical tension, including rumors of a possible...
China’s Industrial Inflection
The episode examines China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) slump in 2025 and the government’s new policy push in January 2026 to shift spending from traditional construction toward smarter factories and digital infrastructure. It argues that this pivot could turn FAI...
Inventories Before and During the Storm: A Reliable Predictor of… Nothing
The episode examines U.S. oil inventory data, highlighting that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has accumulated more barrels since early 2025 than the increase in domestic crude production. This discrepancy undermines claims of a true global oil surplus, as much...
Understanding Peer Momentum
The episode explores "peer momentum," the idea that a stock’s future returns can be better predicted by the recent performance of its connected firms—not just its own past returns. Research shows that using industry‑level peer momentum yields annualized return spreads...
Asian Macro Initial Thoughts, Australia & India Re-Open. Currencies, Tariffs and Earnings on the Agenda as Gold & Silver Rally.
The episode surveys the volatile Asian macro landscape, highlighting Trump‑triggered tariff threats to South Korea, shifting US immigration policy, and Xi’s military purge, while noting strong performances in emerging‑market currencies like the ringgit and Singapore dollar. It reviews the earnings...
Modern Fed Chair
Asset‑management veteran Christopher Reider has surged to the front of the Federal Reserve chair race, positioning himself as the most suitable candidate for a fiscal‑dominant environment. Reider, a political outsider with no evident Trump connections, argues for lowering the policy...
Iraq’s January Oil Exports Surge: A Short Explanation.
The episode examines recent Kpler data showing Iraq’s seaborne crude oil exports jumping to an average of 3.457 million barrels per day in January, a rise of roughly 208 kb/d from December. It notes that pipeline shipments to Turkey have stayed steady...
Netflix: Waning Optimism
The episode reviews the author's evolving stance on Netflix, noting a recent 200‑basis‑point trim to the stock after several reductions throughout 2024, signaling waning optimism. Despite the cut, Netflix still comprises about 8% of the portfolio, reflecting lingering confidence in...
Deleveraging Operator Offers Compelling Yield
The episode examines a high‑yield note offering over 8.5% that is backed by a company aggressively reducing its debt, positioning it for a potential rating upgrade within the next two years. It highlights how the current spread reflects genuine compensation...
China Weekly Wrap: Markets, Macro & Tech
The episode reviews the latest China market dynamics, highlighting a split performance where Shenzhen‑focused growth stocks outperformed while Shanghai mega‑caps and state‑heavy sectors lagged. Offshore Hong Kong showed modest gains with defensive sectors leading, and regional momentum was driven by...
E Ink (8069 TT)
E Ink remains the unrivaled supplier of e‑paper displays, controlling virtually the entire global market. The company trades at a lofty 16× price‑to‑earnings multiple, reflecting investor optimism despite modest growth. A breakthrough colour‑display technology is poised to expand its addressable...
Gasoline Inventories Rise to Highest Level Since 2020
The episode examines the recent surge in U.S. gasoline inventories, which have climbed to their highest level since 2020, and explores the factors driving this buildup, including weaker demand, refinery outages, and seasonal storage patterns. Analysts discuss how the inventory...
High-Quality Real Estate Credit with More than Investment-Grade Spread
The episode examines a senior housing REIT whose current spread over the BBB index undervalues its credit quality, citing a strong net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio, ample liquidity, and improving rent coverage. It argues that the market misreads the issuer as...
Stale Data Watch: Construction Spending for October — More “Green Shoots”?
Construction spending for October rose modestly, with total nominal spending up 0.5% and residential construction up 1.3%. After adjusting for a 0.2% decline in material prices, real overall spending increased 0.7% and residential spending 1.5%, pushing both series close to...
Top Picks Update
In this early‑year episode, the host highlights a rapid shift in the housing market from tentative optimism to policy‑driven momentum, noting that mortgage rates are a key driver. The standout financial pick for 2026, Rocket Companies (RKT), has surged nearly...
How Your Brain’s “Break-Even” Bias Creates Mispricings
In this episode, Larry Swedroe discusses a new study by Jihoon Goh, Suk‑Joon Byun, and Donghoon Kim that uncovers how the “salience effect”—investors’ attraction to stocks with dramatic past moves—interacts with the “break‑even bias,” a tendency to take riskier bets...
Assisted Thinking
The episode “Assisted Thinking” dissects the stark contrast between China’s massive reliance on coal—accounting for 58% of its primary energy in 2024—and the Western media narrative that paints Beijing as a climate leader. By examining data from the Statistical Review...
Annual Review of EU’s Gas Market in 2025 and the Outlook for 2026
The episode reviews the EU gas market in 2025, noting a modest 1.2% demand rebound after two years of decline and a sharp increase in LNG imports that offset a 15 bcm loss of Russian pipeline gas following the end of...
Discounting the Chaos
The episode “Discounting the Chaos” examines how, despite a torrent of geopolitical turmoil—from Venezuela’s leadership shake‑up to potential conflicts involving Iran and Greenland—the stock market remains a reliable, fundamentals‑driven gauge of future economic conditions. Recent data suggest the U.S. economy...
Are the Attacks on Kazakhstan’s Petroleum Sector Potentially Linked to Retaliation Against Trump’s Venezuela Strategy?
In this episode, A.F. Alhajji examines a sudden decline in OPEC+ oil output, focusing on recent attacks on Kazakhstan’s petroleum infrastructure and their possible connection to U.S. policy toward Venezuela under former President Trump. He argues that the disruptions may...
Practical Monetarism
The President is expected to announce his Fed Chairman pick this week, with former governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading contender. Warsh, a noted hawk, aligns his policy outlook with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He is best known for a...
Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha’s weekly indicators for Jan 12‑16 highlight a normalizing yield curve and mortgage rates at three‑year lows, which are reviving the housing market. At the same time, gasoline prices have slipped to their lowest level in almost five years, creating...
The RMB Weakness that Wasn't
In this episode the hosts dissect the recent breach of the 7.00 RMB per USD threshold, a move they had forecast despite official resistance. They revisit their earlier stance against a "balance‑sheet recession" narrative, argue that the fundamentals still support further...
Counterparty Risk in Silver Exposed
The episode examines the recent price dynamics of precious metals, noting gold's steady rise to $4,606 and silver's rapid surge to $90.75, driven by heightened open interest on the COMEX. It highlights the emerging counterparty risk in the silver market,...
Industrial Production Sets New Post-Pandemic High in December - but Mainly Due to Utilities
Industrial production reached a new post‑pandemic high in December, climbing 0.4% after revisions added another 0.2% to prior months. The modest 0.2% rise in manufacturing was dwarfed by a 2.6% jump in utility output, which also posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year...
Subscriber Update on Block Inc. 2032s
The episode breaks down Block, Inc.'s latest credit outlook, highlighting a dramatic shift from a shaky to a durable balance sheet and a clear path to achieving the Rule of 40 by 2026. Q3 2025 results show 18% YoY gross...
The Gasoline Build Paradox: Weather and Shale Vs. Economic Growth?
The episode explores the paradox of rising gasoline consumption despite advances in shale production and the influence of weather patterns on fuel demand. It examines how economic growth, seasonal temperature shifts, and the resilience of the oil market interact to...
The Dollar Consolidates While Japan Steps Up Its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...
Refinancing Into Deterioration
The episode dissects Molson Coors' looming $2.4 billion refinancing challenge amid a sharp operational downturn, highlighted by an 11.9% drop in pretax income, a $3.6 billion goodwill impairment, and rising net leverage to 2.28x. Volume shrinkage—especially in the economy and flavored‑alcohol segments—combined...
Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran: Key Wildcards Driving Oil Price Volatility
The episode examines three emerging wildcards that could destabilize oil markets: a sharp decline in Kazakhstan’s crude exports due to Ukrainian drone attacks and weather‑related production cuts, political and operational uncertainties in Venezuela, and renewed sanctions and geopolitical tension surrounding...
Sleeping Giants
The administration is signaling a willingness to enlist government‑sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in its effort to push mortgage rates lower. After the 2008 crisis, the GSEs’ mortgage holdings shrank dramatically, but policymakers see an...
Annual Review of the Global LNG Market in 2025 and Outlook for 2026
The 2025 global LNG market was driven by strong European demand as the region reduced reliance on Russian pipeline gas and rapid import growth in the MENA region, especially Egypt, while Asian demand, notably China, softened due to higher domestic...