Westpac Sees RBNZ Holding OCR, Nudging First Rate Hike to December 2026
Westpac projects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in its February 18 meeting, but expects the first rate hike to arrive in December 2026, slightly earlier than previously forecast. The bank notes that inflation remains above target despite signs of gradual disinflation and a more supportive global backdrop. Westpac anticipates a dovish tone from the RBNZ, emphasizing excess capacity and easing commodity prices, with only modest tightening ahead. By June 2027, the OCR could rise to 2.85‑3.0%, reflecting a cautious path.
Chinese Traders Amplified Gold Volatility
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...
Economic and Event Calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 11, 2026, China Inflation Data
China will publish its January 2026 CPI and PPI data today, offering the first post‑holiday inflation signals of the year. Analysts expect headline consumer inflation to edge up to roughly 0.6‑1.2% year‑on‑year, buoyed by seasonal food and service price spikes...
Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest household‑debt report shows U.S. credit‑card balances climbing to a record $1.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, while the number of open accounts also hit an all‑time high. The surge reflects persistent consumer spending despite elevated...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the afternoon market dynamics for corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock futures, noting a shift from steady to lower overnight prices before a positive day‑trade bounce driven by soy meal and oil strength and weather concerns in South...
Americans Now Have Much More Money in IRAs than 401(k)s. Why That Leaves Workers More Vulnerable.
The U.S. private‑sector retirement system is witnessing a historic shift, with IRA balances now exceeding 401(k) assets by roughly $7 trillion. This migration moves workers’ savings out of the ERISA‑protected 401(k) framework into a less regulated IRA environment. IRAs lack the...
Why Buying Silver Bars Online Is a Smart Investment Choice
Buying silver bars online is presented as a practical way to add a tangible, low‑cost precious metal to a diversified portfolio. The article highlights that online bullion dealers offer broader product ranges, real‑time pricing and lower overhead, which translate into...
Thermal (and Industrial) Coal Update - 10 Feb
In this episode, the host reviews recent price movements in South African thermal and industrial coal, highlighting a notable price rally driven by strong demand from Indian sponge‑iron and cement producers. The discussion references insights from the McCloskey OPIS coal...
USD/JPY Continues to Fall After US Retail Sales Miss
USD/JPY fell for a second day as Japan’s new lower‑house majority under Prime Minister Fumio Takaichi spurred a rally in Japanese equities and a shift of capital into the yen. The decline was amplified by weak U.S. retail‑sales data and...
U.S. Secretary Of State: Brazil & China To 'Trade In Own Currencies & Get Around The Dollar'
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted Brazil's new trade agreement with China that will use their own currencies instead of the U.S. dollar, signaling a shift toward a secondary, dollar‑independent global economy. He warned that as more nations transact...
US Employment Costs Are Still Falling
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Employment Cost Index (ECI) fell for the second straight quarter, marking the slowest annual wage growth in more than four years. In Q4, total compensation rose just 2.8% year‑over‑year, down from...
![[CW6] The Washington Minerals Summit (and Its Derivatives), Oak Ridge’s Renaissance, and the Uranium Policy Wave](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lzc6!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01a1bf0f-a07f-4ec1-ad53-1b0487956974_850x850.png)
[CW6] The Washington Minerals Summit (and Its Derivatives), Oak Ridge’s Renaissance, and the Uranium Policy Wave
The episode reviews a wave of concrete investments and policy moves across critical minerals, highlighting the Washington ministerial where the US stepped back from price‑floor schemes while Australia pressed ahead with its Strategic Reserve, and Brazil’s Serra Verde secured a...
Bonds Taking a Pre-NFP Lead-Off
Bond yields pulled back toward the 4.1‑4.2% band after weak retail‑sales data, reversing a brief flirtation with the 4.30% ceiling on the 10‑year Treasury. The market is now pricing in a softer labor outlook ahead of the February non‑farm payrolls...
American Consumers Slam On The Brakes
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that January 2026 consumer spending stalled, with retail sales slipping amid unusually cold weather. Month‑over‑month retail sales fell 1.2%, while personal consumption expenditures dropped 0.8% year‑over‑year. Analysts say the weather‑induced headwind temporarily depressed demand, but...
Which Latin American Leaders Will Be Forced From Power in 2026?
In this episode the host examines prediction‑market odds for Latin American leaders being ousted before the end of 2026, using data from Kalshi and Polymarket. He highlights Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador as the most volatile cases, while noting that...
PO Nilsson Back at the Helm of PriorNilsson Yield
Per‑Olof Nilsson, co‑founder of PriorNilsson Fonder, has resumed his role as lead portfolio manager of the low‑risk hedge fund PriorNilsson Yield, a position he held from the fund’s launch in 2002 until August 2025. The transition does not alter the...
The Market Brief
The episode reviews the S&P 500’s pause just short of record highs as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data, starting with retail sales. It highlights that technology stocks led the recent rally, buoyed by AI news from OpenAI, and that...
The Capture of Tequila’s Mayor Uncovers a Gruesome Truth
The episode examines Mexico’s Operation Swarm, focusing on the February 12 arrests of more than a dozen officials from the tourist town of Tequila, including its mayor, for colluding with organized crime. It explains how the operation, championed by President‑elect...
The Digital Yuan and the New Geography of Monetary Power
The episode examines how China’s digital yuan (e‑yuan) reshapes the internationalization of the renminbi by focusing on usage rather than ownership. It explains that traditional barriers were convertibility and capital controls, which limited the ability to sell or move RMB...
Selling a House in Switzerland: The Complete Guide
The guide walks sellers through every stage of a Swiss property sale, from initial pricing and mortgage planning to the final notary signing. It highlights the choice between DIY sales and hiring an agency, emphasizing the cost‑benefit of professional marketing...
Emerging Markets Continuing To Emerge
The US MSCI index has underperformed global peers in 2025, ending a year of relative strength. Investors are shifting toward high‑growth emerging‑market stocks such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan, while Japan rallied 5.7% after a decisive election. The...
Despite 4 Years of Mass-Layoffs at Alphabet & Amazon, Headcount Rose in 2025, Nearly Flat with Peak, as Hiring Continued
Alphabet’s 2025 year‑end headcount rose by 7,497 employees, barely below its 2023 peak, while Amazon added roughly 20,000 workers to reach 1.576 million, just 2% shy of its 2021 high. Both companies experienced massive hiring surges in 2020‑21—Alphabet grew 60% and...
The Cost of Fragmentation: A Comparison of State Affordable Housing Finance Governance Systems
The Terner Center released a new series of resources that examine how U.S. states govern affordable‑housing finance, highlighting the costly fragmentation of multiple agencies and programs. An interactive map and a landscape scan of all 50 states reveal which entities...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These...
The ASC Sale-Leaseback Opportunity
Ambulatory Surgery Center (ASC) owners are increasingly using sale‑leasebacks to unlock the equity tied up in their buildings. By selling the property to an investor and signing a 10‑15‑year triple‑net lease, physicians retain operational control while converting real‑estate assets into...
$235M Sale Of Jameson's Broadway Tower Under Creditor Protection Cancelled
The episode dissects the collapse of a $235 million sale of Jameson Development’s 28‑storey tower at 2538 Birch Street in Vancouver, which was under Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act protection. It explains how funding from BC Housing was suspended, leading to a...
Income Investing Beyond Dividends: Incorporating Options Into Your 2026 Yield Plan
The episode explores how income investing has shifted from relying solely on dividends to incorporating options strategies like covered calls and cash‑secured puts to generate cash flow, especially from non‑dividend‑paying growth stocks. It explains the mechanics of these strategies, their...
💊 Hims & Hers: When the Growth Story Runs Into the Regulator
In this episode Edward Corona dissects the sudden 16% plunge of Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), linking it to a dual blow from GLP‑1 hype‑driven expectations and mounting legal and FDA scrutiny. He explains how lawsuits and regulatory pressure are...
US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped
US grain storage capacity expanded steadily from 2000 to 2019, adding roughly 350 million bushels per year, but growth has essentially stopped after 2020. Meanwhile, crop production kept rising, pushing the surplus capacity margin down to just 5 % in 2025. On‑farm...
Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?
The United States continues to be described as a ‘Goldilocks Plus’ economy, balancing low inflation with solid growth. Recent data show the labor market still tight, but a wave of layoffs in technology and manufacturing raises concerns. Analysts warn that...
Pagaya Technologies (PGY): Q4 2025 Earnings Review
The episode dissects Pagaya Technologies' Q4 2025 earnings, highlighting revenue of $335M (slightly below estimates) and a record GAAP net income of $34M boosted by one‑off tax benefits. Management explained a deliberate slowdown in growth to protect profitability, cutting exposure...
The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away
Investors are confronting a new capital‑allocation landscape as hyper‑scale cloud firms pour record capex into AI infrastructure, squeezing the cash traditionally earmarked for share buybacks. The article argues that despite this shift, the market’s largest shareholder – passive index funds...
Software Company monday.com Plunges 22% Today, -82% From High, -50% From IPO Price, Into Our Imploded Stocks
Monday.com’s shares tumbled 22% to about $76.70 after its earnings release, marking a record‑low close. The stock is now 82% below its November 2021 peak and 51% beneath the $155 IPO price. While Q4 revenue rose 25% to $334 million and beat...
Switch to TurboTax & File All Forms Free by 2/28 Promotion (+ 10% Off for Previous Users)
TurboTax is offering a limited-time promotion that lets new mobile‑app users file federal and state returns for free, covering all forms included in its Deluxe and Premium tiers. The offer excludes the web platform and any TurboTax Experts products, requiring...
North American Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 North American Oil Data Deck reveals that petroleum liquids output hit a record 31.4 million barrels per day, driven by a surge in Canadian production that more than compensated for flat U.S. and Mexican output. Meanwhile, continental...
How to Do Your Taxes in 2026: A DIY Tax Filing Guide
The 2026 tax filing season (for the 2025 tax year) officially began on January 26, 2026, with the deadline set for April 15, 2026. Inflation adjustments raised tax brackets, standard deductions, and contribution limits, while the OBBBA legislation expanded the SALT cap to $40,000...
How to Pay Taxes with a Credit Card (and Profit) in 2026
The IRS still permits tax payments via credit or debit cards through two processors, ACI Payments (1.85%‑2.95%) and Pay1040 (1.75%‑2.89%) for 2026. By pairing a cash‑back card that earns at least the processing rate, taxpayers can offset fees and even...
Average Homeowner Tenure Rises To 8.6 Years (Americans Aren’t Moving Much)
The average U.S. homeowner now stays in a property for 8.6 years, the longest stretch since the early 2000s. Rising home prices and persistently high mortgage rates are forcing owners to hold onto homes longer, while the share of Americans...
Amazon: 2026 Update
The author has refreshed his proprietary Amazon valuation model using the company’s latest 10‑K filing, projecting financial performance through 2026. The update incorporates recent trends in e‑commerce, cloud services, and advertising revenue streams. Detailed assumptions and calculations are hosted behind...
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Overnight Treasury markets experienced a sharp, high‑volume move despite a relatively narrow price range. The volatility was triggered by news that Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Domestic traders quickly digested the information, and by...
India and the US Rewire Trade in the Indo-Pacific
The episode examines the interim U.S.-India trade deal announced in February 2026, which cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% and obliges India to cease Russian oil imports in favor of U.S. energy supplies. It traces the...
Does Sheinbaum Really Care About Cuba? And How Likely Are US Military Strikes in Mexico?
The episode examines the increasingly fraught relationship between Mexico’s President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum and former U.S. President Donald Trump, focusing on five intersecting issues: Mexico’s humanitarian aid and oil shipments to Cuba, alleged ties between Venezuela’s Maduro regime and Mexico’s Morena...
Private Credit Defaults
The episode dissects private‑credit defaults, arguing that most defaults are driven by borrower‑specific (idiosyncratic) factors rather than systemic risk, which the media often exaggerates for clicks. Data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index shows realized losses remain well below historic...
Free Webinar: Venezuela’s Oil Industry
In this free webinar, host Doug Garber brings together oil market veteran Paul Sankey and AlphaSense researcher Xavier Smith to dissect the current state of Venezuela’s oil sector. They explore the country’s production potential, the political and operational barriers that...
EM January Repeat Riff Needles Nostalgia Nod
The episode examines the surge in emerging market (EM) debt and equity performance through January 2025, noting record growth rates and unprecedented fund inflows. It compares today’s bullish sentiment to the pioneering phase of EM investing four decades ago, highlighting...
Uncommon Sense: Warren Buffett in Milan
In May 2008 Warren Buffett concluded a four‑day European roadshow in Milan, where he fielded questions from MBA students about investing, management, and life. The trip was part of Berkshire Hathaway’s hunt for family‑owned businesses to add to its decentralized...
A New Oil Era—Or Just Noise? The Venezuela Factor Lifts Big Oil
Big Oil’s XLE ETF has surged 19.1% year‑to‑date, outpacing the clean‑energy ICLN’s 13.2% gain. The rally follows the Trump administration’s move to ease sanctions on Venezuela, a country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves. While the prospect of tapping...
How ETFs, Open End Mutual Funds, and Closed End Funds Actually Trade
Fundrise announced that its Innovation Fund will list on the NYSE as a closed‑end fund, shifting from an open‑end structure that trades at NAV to a fixed‑float vehicle. The article explains how ETFs, open‑end mutual funds, and closed‑end funds differ...
Talk Your Book: The Three A’s of the U.S. Economy
The latest "Talk Your Book" episode breaks down the three A’s shaping the U.S. economy—asset prices, artificial intelligence, and the affluent consumer. It highlights a widening market breadth and offers a framework for valuing the world’s largest firms. The discussion...
Interview with Triangle Investor
In this episode, economist Alasdair Macleod outlines a 2026 outlook where a tightening silver market, driven by massive physical shortages and surging demand from China and India, is creating a sharp premium between Shanghai and Western markets. He warns that...