PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 13 February 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
The episode covers four major Asian market stories: Singapore’s 2026 budget under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, which projects a surplus, boosts AI investment, and offers household cost‑of‑living credits; the political fallout in the US as the House votes to overturn Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada; widespread Indian farmer protests against a proposed India‑US trade deal that could flood the market with US agricultural imports; and China’s yuan appreciation to a three‑year high driven by de‑dollarisation pressures. Expert commentary highlights the fiscal prudence of Singapore’s plan, the trade‑policy turbulence in Washington, the domestic political risk for Modi’s government, and the broader implications of a stronger yuan for global capital flows.
“Liberation Day” Interpreted Through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquency rates rose to 4.26% in Q4 2025, up 27 basis points from the prior quarter and 28 basis points year‑over‑year. All major loan types—Conventional, FHA, and VA—saw higher delinquencies, with FHA loans...
Reuters Reports on Recent China, India Coal Projections
The episode reviews recent Reuters reports on coal outlooks for China and India, highlighting projections from the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association and a NITI Aayog study. In China, output is expected to edge up modestly in 2026 while...
Mainland Investors Buy Dip On Earnings Unease
Mainland investors used the final pre‑Lunar New Year Stock Connect window to snap up roughly $600 million of Hong Kong‑listed shares, focusing on internet giants Tencent, Xiaomi and Meituan. The broader Asian equity landscape was mixed, with Korea and Thailand gaining...
Slower Data. Slower Morning
The bond market’s recent volatility, sparked by a strong jobs report, has calmed after this morning’s modest jobless‑claims data. Claims rose to 227,000, slightly above the 222,000 forecast but below the prior 232,000 level. With the CPI release looming, traders...
Do You Ever Wonder? Podcast
Kevin Erdmann appeared on Mike Haltman's "Do You Ever Wonder?" podcast to discuss the fundamentals of the 21st‑century housing market. In under an hour, he broke down key trends such as urbanization, affordability pressures, and the rise of data‑driven property...
From Text ➡️ Dashboards
In this episode the host shares resources for both learners and active traders, highlighting the free CME Trading Simulator and educational posts on implied forwards and Jensen's inequality. The main focus is on using AI tools to transform textual insights...
VER’s Hedge Fund Portfolio Up Double Digits Again
The State Pension Fund of Finland (VER) generated an 11.3% return on its €1 billion hedge‑fund allocation in 2025, up from 10.9% in 2024. The outperformance was driven primarily by Asia‑focused and event‑driven managers, while CTA strategies lagged but still posted...
Part 4: Tax Structures, Legal Planning, and The Three Paths Forward
The article warns that relying on outdated tax and legal structures for inherited commercial real‑estate can trap heirs in inflexible, costly situations. While a step‑up in basis lowers capital‑gains tax, it does not address liquidity, governance, debt maturity, or asset...
Data Center REITs Are A Conservative Way To Play AI
The AI spending surge is rewarding infrastructure providers more than software developers, with data‑center REITs emerging as a conservative play on the trend. Equinix and Digital Realty benefit directly from hyperscalers’ massive compute investments, delivering immediate revenue growth. Equinix reported...
35 Frugal Living Ideas For 2026
Frugal living in 2026 emphasizes intentional spending rather than strict deprivation, offering 35 practical habits to balance savings with quality of life. The guide highlights realistic budgeting, price comparison, durability focus, meal planning, and cash‑envelope techniques as core strategies. It...
Nordic Hedge Funds Start 2026 Strong Despite Dispersion
Nordic hedge funds continued strong momentum into 2026, with the Nordic Hedge Index gaining 1.0% in January after an 8.0% return in 2025. Performance was highly dispersed; long/short equity managers ranged from -14% to +15%, while systematic CTA, macro, and...
Next Tech Bubble? China Warns of Robot Overcapacity
The episode examines China's rapid expansion of the humanoid robotics industry, driven by government subsidies and venture capital, and the resulting overcapacity warning from the National Development and Reform Commission. It highlights the high costs, limited real-world demand, and technical...
The "Atomic" Rotation: 3 Trillion Won Floods KOSPI as Capital Abandons "Bits" For "Atoms"
The episode analyzes a dramatic shift on Feb 12, 2026, where the Korean KOSPI surged over 3% on record foreign inflows while U.S. tech indices fell, highlighting a rotation from software‑focused “bits” to hardware‑centric “atoms.” Host LoRosha explains that institutional...
The Full Spectrum of European Alternative Fixed Income
Chenavari Investment Managers hit a $6 billion assets‑under‑management milestone in September 2025, eighteen years after its 2008 launch. The firm offers a full‑spectrum alternative fixed‑income platform, ranging from daily‑liquidity UCITS funds to semi‑liquid hybrid vehicles, listed credit trusts, CLO issuance and private‑credit...
Lingering Storm Impact Still Visible in Latest US Weekly Oil Figures
The episode examines the latest U.S. weekly oil inventory data, highlighting how the lingering effects of a recent storm continue to distort supply figures. Analysts discuss the discrepancy between reported crude builds and actual market conditions, noting that refinery outages...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The episode reviews a rough day for tech stocks, with the QQQ index up modestly while most internet and software names slump amid an accelerating AI narrative. Host Citrini describes an "AI Disruption Discount" hitting vertical SaaS, ad platforms, and...
More Canes Than Cribs: Toronto Population Falls, More Seniors Than Kids
Statistics Canada reports that the Toronto CMA’s population slipped to 7.11 million in 2025, marking the region’s first post‑pandemic decline. The working‑age cohort (15‑64) contracted by 0.85%, shedding 42.5 k workers, while the senior segment (65+) rose to 1.18 million, now outnumbering children....
Stunning Resilience
The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped 8 basis points after a trio of surprisingly strong labor‑market releases, settling just below the 4.20% technical barrier. January’s payrolls added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the 70,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%...
Fourth Quarter 2025 Las Vegas Industrial Market Report
Las Vegas’s industrial inventory reached 198.3 million square feet in Q4 2025, a 4.5% year‑over‑year increase. Under‑construction space fell sharply to 5.4 million square feet, down 38% from the prior year. The quarter saw 37 transactions totaling $213.9 million, with an average...
Infographics: Key Rates & Spreads In the Modern Repo Market
The episode breaks down the modern repo market by illustrating how overnight rates and dealer spreads vary across different repo segments—triparty, GCF, DVP, and NCCBR. It explains that dealers profit by maintaining a positive spread between the cost of borrowing...
HCC Q4 2025 Earnings Outlook
The episode examines Warrior Coal Company's Q4 2025 earnings outlook, emphasizing the stable performance of its legacy mines and the growing influence of the Blue Creek operation. It highlights the uncertainty around Blue Creek's steady‑state production as it gains market...
Recent Signals and Tematica Model Confirmation Points
The episode reviews recent headline-driven confirmation points for Tematica’s thematic investment models, focusing on aging demographics, AI adoption, cash‑strapped consumers, cybersecurity, digital infrastructure, and emerging energy demands. Key takeaways include a resurgence in senior housing demand as boomers age, rapid...
CommodityChat: February WASDE Boosts Corn Export Outlook
The USDA’s February 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report introduced modest revisions to U.S. and global grain balances, notably a slight increase in projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26. The higher stocks lift the corn export...
Musk’s Orbital Compute Revolution: Will Space-Based Data Centers Ignite a New Geopolitical Space Race?
The episode examines Elon Musk’s proposal for an orbital data center constellation that would deliver hyperscale AI compute powered by continuous solar energy and radiative cooling, potentially reaching 100 GW of power in space. It argues that this technology could bypass...
US Policy in Latin America - 11 February 2026
The episode focuses on Venezuela, with a deep dive into its energy sector and the geopolitical implications for U.S. policy in Latin America. It also touches on related developments in Cuba, Argentina, and the strategic role of El Paso as a...
The Condo Crisis
Since January 2020, US single‑family homes have appreciated 46% versus 34% for condos, widening the price premium to a record 22% or $74,000. The gap, historically 8‑17%, accelerated during the pandemic as remote work increased demand for space. Tightened condo...
Federal YIMBYs?
The House approved the Housing for the 21st Century Act, a federal effort to ease regulations on manufactured‑home financing, HUD programs, and construction lending for small builders. The legislation also grants regulatory relief to local banks, aiming to revive mortgage...
100 Frugal Wisdom Quotes
The article compiles 100 timeless frugal‑wisdom quotes from figures such as Benjamin Franklin, Warren Buffett, and modern personal‑finance influencers. It highlights how simple habits—saving first, budgeting, and avoiding unnecessary expenses—can transform money into a tool for freedom rather than stress....
Why Carlos Slim’s Mobile Phone Behemoth Can’t Be Taken on Head First
The episode examines Mexico’s mobile sector, focusing on América Móvil’s historic monopoly under Carlos Slim and the 2013 telecom reforms that introduced competition, free roaming, lower prices, and better coverage. Guest Jorge F. Negrete explains how those reforms achieved their...
China Unveils New Year Measures as Consumption Data Dips
Chinese local governments announced a suite of stimulus measures ahead of the longest Lunar New Year break, extending the holiday to nine days. The central government allocated 2.05 billion yuan in vouchers, red‑envelopes and subsidies to directly benefit consumers. January's consumer...
Xi’s Broken Heart: Why China’s Markets Are Bleeding Out
The episode examines the growing divergence between China’s onshore stock markets and Hong Kong’s offshore market, arguing that this split reflects a deepening mistrust of Xi Jinping’s political control over finance. While mainland indices appear stable, the offshore market is...
Low Net Exposure Offers Little Shelter for Colosseum
Colosseum Global Alpha entered 2026 with a modest 12% net exposure, a level that usually limits market sensitivity. In January the fund slumped 14.2%, driven primarily by short positions that were caught in extreme price swings. Shares of SanDisk and...
Why TAA Is Performing Well Now: Outperformance Attribution
Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies have outperformed the traditional 60/40 benchmark throughout 2025 and into early 2026. A detailed attribution shows 57% of the excess return stems from the diversified asset mix TAA typically holds, while 43% comes from active...
India Is Kicking Trump's Butt on the Trade Deal, TACO Time (Again)
The White House has issued an updated U.S.–India trade factsheet, removing a reference to India cutting tariffs on pulses and softening language around digital services commitments. The document also shifts wording from India “intending” to purchase more U.S. goods to...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.9438 (Vs. Estimate at 6.9109)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.9438 on Tuesday, notably higher than the Reuters estimate of 6.9109. The central bank maintains its +/-2% trading band around the reference rate, with the yuan closing the previous...
Super Bowl LX’s Super Tax Windfall for California Is Most Extreme Jock Tax Example
The Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium generated a massive jock‑tax windfall for California, which levies a 13.3% top rate on nonresident earnings for roughly ten duty days. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold faces a $202,102 tax bill, while Patriots...
AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
ICYMI - PBOC Pledges Loose Policy, Ample Liquidity in Q4 Report
China’s central bank reaffirmed an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in its Q4 report, promising ample liquidity and the option to cut reserve‑requirement ratios or interest rates. The PBOC highlighted support for domestic demand, technology innovation and small‑medium enterprises while keeping...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9109 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is set to announce the USD/CNY reference rate around 0115 GMT, with Reuters estimating a midpoint of 6.9109. China’s managed‑floating system keeps the yuan within a ±2 % band around this rate, blending market data with...
Allied Properties REIT Takes Over KING Toronto Project From Westbank
Allied Properties REIT announced it has taken full operational control of the KING Toronto mixed‑use development, assuming the development manager role and converting its existing loans to equity, positioning it to own 100% of the project by 2027. The report...
Westpac Sees RBNZ Holding OCR, Nudging First Rate Hike to December 2026
Westpac projects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in its February 18 meeting, but expects the first rate hike to arrive in December 2026, slightly earlier than previously forecast. The bank notes...
Chinese Traders Amplified Gold Volatility
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...
Economic and Event Calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 11, 2026, China Inflation Data
China will publish its January 2026 CPI and PPI data today, offering the first post‑holiday inflation signals of the year. Analysts expect headline consumer inflation to edge up to roughly 0.6‑1.2% year‑on‑year, buoyed by seasonal food and service price spikes...
Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest household‑debt report shows U.S. credit‑card balances climbing to a record $1.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, while the number of open accounts also hit an all‑time high. The surge reflects persistent consumer spending despite elevated...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the afternoon market dynamics for corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock futures, noting a shift from steady to lower overnight prices before a positive day‑trade bounce driven by soy meal and oil strength and weather concerns in South...
Americans Now Have Much More Money in IRAs than 401(k)s. Why That Leaves Workers More Vulnerable.
The U.S. private‑sector retirement system is witnessing a historic shift, with IRA balances now exceeding 401(k) assets by roughly $7 trillion. This migration moves workers’ savings out of the ERISA‑protected 401(k) framework into a less regulated IRA environment. IRAs lack the...
Why Buying Silver Bars Online Is a Smart Investment Choice
Buying silver bars online is presented as a practical way to add a tangible, low‑cost precious metal to a diversified portfolio. The article highlights that online bullion dealers offer broader product ranges, real‑time pricing and lower overhead, which translate into...
Thermal (and Industrial) Coal Update - 10 Feb
In this episode, the host reviews recent price movements in South African thermal and industrial coal, highlighting a notable price rally driven by strong demand from Indian sponge‑iron and cement producers. The discussion references insights from the McCloskey OPIS coal...