All Major Tech Giants Reporting Record Profits
Devil is in the details but raging bulls just run on groupthink: Amazon just posted record profits. Google just posted record profits. Microsoft just posted record profits. Meta just posted record profits.
Identifying Mega
Hey @grok Which current mega-cap tech stock looks the most like a future underperformer based on historical valuation extremes and slowing fundamentals?
Berkshire's New Leader Gains Credibility, Yet Sentiment Wanes
Macro: Berkshire shifts to Greg Abel. Abel wins operational credibility but attendance and merchandise dipped. Risk: fading Buffett aura may dent sentiment. Trade: Hold BRK.B; await catalyst ⚠️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Record S&P Earnings Mask Underlying Inflation-Adjusted Decline
S&P 500 earnings hit a record, but it's not all good news. Inflation-adjusted earnings are actually below past peaks, and growth is driven by just a few mega-cap tech stocks. A warning sign for complacent markets. 📉 StockMarketWarning
Burry Bets on Microsoft as Recession‑proof Dividend King
Burry just opened a brand new long in $MSFT. Microsoft. Down 25% from its July 2025 peak. Worst Q1 since 2008. He called it "forensic" analysis. That's an engineer's word. BuyTrigger: $440 Price: $428 Power Rating: A Risk Level: 22 (sleep-well-at-night) Recommend: 93 Recession Proof. Dividend King. Mega...
Cut Large‑Cap Oil Exposure Amid Market Rout
MOEX flat as Brent -5.1% and gold up; RUB steady. LUKOIL -4.9% led declines; PhosAgro/Magnit outperformed. Risk: oil rout pressures energy. Insight: reduce exposure to large-cap oil names. 🛢️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Shareholders Reject Workforce Report, Keep Berkshire Board Intact
Berkshire shareholders rejected workforce report, approved say-on-pay and kept board. Decentralized model preserves subsidiary autonomy; operational incidents persist. Trade: overweight BRK.B. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Google Cloud Matches 2014 Google Size, 25% More Profitable
Google Cloud is now the same size Google itself was a decade ago, and it is 25 percent more profitable. $GOOG https://t.co/6lPID0NAuE
Adobe Undervalued: Burry Adds Position, Buyback Boosts Value
Burry's quietly added to $ADBE. Adobe at $241. The market is pricing it like Figma already won and AI ate the rest. The fundamentals say otherwise. BuyTrigger: $319 ValueTrigger: $458 (Undervalued) SellTrigger: $729 +90% to fair value. +203% to my sell zone. Buyback Reality Index: A rating....
S&P 500 EPS Projected to Rise 22% This Year
22% S&P 500 EPS growth expected this year... and it has been trending higher GS https://t.co/MIGNciysdn
Berkshire's Cash Surges to $397B After $8.1
A tender for Berkshire shares by BRK seems more than possible: "cash jumped to $397 billion in the first quarter as it offloaded a net $8.1 billion of equity holdings in the period. Operating earnings got a boost from an...
April 2026 S&P Gains 10% Amid War, Optimism Returns
In April 2026, US equities saw light in the midst of war and chaos. The S&P 500 rose 10.43%, its best month since April 2020, coming of COVID lows, and the ERP for the index dropped to 4.37%. The market...
Berkshire's Cash Swells to $400B Amid 14 Quarters Net Selling
Buffett's Cash Position is now near $400B - 14 straight quarters of net selling*, Berkshire exited another $8B of stocks in Q1. *(bought ~$16B, sold ~$24B), data from official earnings/10-Q and 13F-related disclosures. https://t.co/btLzzDvF3e
Top 10 Stocks Now Contribute 33% of Earnings
A major uptick in the earnings contribution from the 10 largest stocks.. now 33% GS https://t.co/XJI0aB2hzH
High EPS Growth Forecasts Often Precede Weak SPX Returns
These charts use consensus NTM Growth Rates and subsequent SPX Returns monthly going back to 1996 Current SPX EPS Growth Rate is 20% Purple Line Sample correlation is -21% Intuition to me makes sense that most of the time when growth rate expectations...
Profit Margin Forecasts Diverge From Recent S&P Trends
As @jessefelder rightly notes of a must see interview this week w/legendary investor @ptj_official “Forward profit margin expectations for the 493 are strikingly disconnected from the trend of recent years” (He, of course, refers to $SPX net of the Mag7) https://t.co/1s0EuVOTQr
Hyperscalers' Earnings Surge Thanks to Private Equity Stakes
GS: The hyperscalers' earnings growth this quarter was boosted by an unusually large contribution from equity stakes in private companies. https://t.co/24FLhlxevX
S&P 500 Q1 EPS Jumps 27.1%, Strongest Since 2021
With 63% of the S&P 500 reported, the blended YoY EPS growth rate for Q1 is 27.1% which would mark the strongest growth since Q4'21. via FactSet
61% of S&P 500 Beat EPS Forecasts, Surpassing Norm
GS: 61% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations by more than a standard deviation of estimates, above the historical average of 49% https://t.co/LZixPHA1q7
Only a Handful of Stocks Drove This Week’s Market Highs
Hey @grok How many stocks really pushed the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new highs this week? List the only stocks that were the alpha this week.
S&P Hits New High with Under 40% Stocks Advancing
The S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 0.25% to a new high. Not even 40% of its stocks rose on the day. This has happened two other times since 1962. LOL, make of it what you will. https://t.co/2WJkbcn7CA
Predicting the Next Dow Jones Add and Drop
Which stock gets removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average next, and which one gets added next?
Analysts Keep EPS Estimates Steady Amid Oil Price Worries
"Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter? The answer is no." @FactSet https://t.co/Aqtc1XHQdn https://t.co/D5IRx5DPU0
Intel Hits $500B Market Cap, Outpacing Rivals
$INTC is now a half-trillion $ market cap... larger than: $ORCL $COST $MA $NFLX $PG $KO @Koyfincharts https://t.co/OzwzCPW5r2
Only 8 S&P 500 Stocks Double, None Halve This Year
8 S&P 500 stocks are up 100% or more YTD 0 S&P 500 stocks are down 50% or more YTD https://t.co/ZbrCrmPrha
Big Tech Funding Capex by Burning Free Cash
Under the radar and bears watching: Forward earnings expansion financed by FCF destruction. “Alphabet: $73B FCF in 2025, guiding $180–190B capex in 2026. Meta raised its 2026 range to $125–145B against $44B trailing FCF. Amazon TTM FCF compressed ~95% to...
IPhone Demand Hits Decade-Highs, Excluding Pandemic Spikes
My initial analysis regarding Apple’s 2Q26 earnings and 3Q26 guidance is found in the Above Avalon Daily update linked below. After spending some time going through my Apple earnings model (which is accessible via an Above Avalon Models subscription), the...
Nvidia’s Decade Return Dwarfs All, Even Inflation
Last 10 Years NVIDIA $NVDA: +22,875% Bitcoin $BTC: +17,205% $AMD: +10,030% Tesla $TSLA: +2,362% Apple $AAPL: +1,233% Google $GOOGL: +999% Netflix $NFLX: +932% Microsoft $MSFT: +844% Amazon $AMZN: +717% Meta: $META: +425% S&P 500 $SPY: +312% Gold $GLD: +245% US Inflation: +39%
Industry Shifts Boost Intel’s Momentum
For a brief moment. Honestly, this is wild. A lot of momentum and specific industry dynamics are starting to swing in favor of $INTC. https://t.co/32eDESc5Yf
10‑Q Filings Reveal Earnings Details Beyond Hype
It’s been a week of hyperscaler earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google all reported. Not surprisingly, the big capex spending got the headlines. But as I was taught as a young reporter, a press release is just that, a press release....
Nasdaq up 15% in April, HY Spreads Stay High
April +15.3% on Nasdaq… and HY OAS is ~282 bps. That’s not “risk-off.” $QQQ https://t.co/NMz38kcNP3
S&P 500's Biggest Rally Since 2020 Fueled by Dip
The $SPX posted its biggest monthly rally since November 2020 - and it only took the largest monthly dip in 12 months to charge it and the word 'ceasefire' to trigger the reversal. Risk appetite is just ambivalent, it feels...
Four Tech Titans Now Outvalue Pre‑Crisis US Market
Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis the entire US stock market was worth around $10 trillion Today the combined market cap of Nvidia, Google, Microsoft and Apple alone is almost $17 trillion https://t.co/O7WiUFZbRp
Meta's $96B Bond Demand Amid 8.6% Stock Drop
fun when bond and stock investors say different things Meta fielded $96 billion in orders for its $25 billion bond sale yesterday as shares sold off by 8.6% post-earnings https://t.co/gYzRG1K7Mr
S&P Breaks Out After 6‑8‑Month Stagnation
$SPY - Sure...the S&P moved fast off the lows...but it's also just now resolving a 6-8 month range of nothingness. https://t.co/Ve4gwxbkrC
SPX Futures Surge 8 Points After New ATH
$SPX futures +8 after tagging a new ATH at 7219, as it’s been riding the 8-day since reclaiming the moving averages in early April. There was a lot to do across timeframes, and now we start a new month. https://t.co/tGRY36Jv0v
Yesterday's Movers: Performance Snapshot of Top Reporters
This is how the stocks of the reporting companies performed yesterday: $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL $QCOM $CMG $CVNA $F $KLAC $ORLY $LLY $CAT $MA $MRK $MO $RCL $BMY $CROX $COP $W https://t.co/zNGAzreeBv
Apple's Strong Earnings Boost Mega Caps, Manufacturing Data Next
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – May 1, 2026 🚨 Manufacturing data + a big $AAPL earnings reaction headline the open 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0945 - S&P Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Exp 54; Prior 54 1000 - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Exp 53.2; Prior 52.7 📈...
Alphabet Nears Top Spot, Closing on Nvidia
$GOOGL a few percentage points from overtaking $NVDA as the world's most valuable company @augurinfinity https://t.co/FYDdXsHxrP
Google Poised to Become World’s Most Valuable Company
$GOOGL on its way to being the most valuable company in the world, set the pace for big tech earnings and has fueled this rally. 🚀 https://t.co/gQpoSgVPTa
US Earnings Growth Surge Drives Bear Market Mauls
One of the main reason why bears are getting mauled is the massive re-acceleration in US Earnings Growth 302 of $SPX companies have reported an aggregate y/y EPS acceleration of +30% It was #Quad1 in Q1 Goldilocks,...
Microsoft Beats Expectations
ICYMI - .@Microsoft beats expectations, but its guidance comes up light, disappointing investors https://t.co/IGFe4hYg5s. “Its cash flow remains positive despite the substantial spending on AI infrastructure, but investors will want to see this balance maintained in the coming quarters.” #Earnings
Apple Poised for Golden Era Under New AI Strategy
Apple’s monster iPhone June growth guide, robust Services, and now the AI strategy ahead puts this tech stalwart into a potential golden era with Ternus taking the baton from the Hall of Famer Cook. $350 PT and all eyes on...
Activist Oasis's Kao Board Challenge Fails, Pressure Remains
Have you heard the story of the battle between the "P&G of Japan", Kao Corporation, and one of the largest and most successful Japan-focused shareholder activists? This one has everything. Kao is a household name, with a...
IPhone Revenue Surges over 20% YoY, Two Quarters Running
Apple's iPhone Revenue grew by more than 20% YoY for the second quarter in a row
Apple's Guidance Strong; Memory Costs Barely Hit Margins
$AAPL guide is as ripe as they come. 🤤 I guess that memory impact to margin wasn’t so bad. 😎
Meta Tops Q1 Revenue Growth, All Tech Outpace S&P
Q1 Revenue Growth, YoY % Change... Meta $META: +33% Google $GOOGL: +22% Microsoft $MSFT: +18% Apple $AAPL: +17% Amazon $AMZN: +17% Netflix $NFLX: +16% Tesla $TSLA: +16% S&P 500 $SPY: +10%
Apple’s Modest Rise Hints at Future Growth Super‑cycle
$AAPL up 4% does not reflect how good the guide was. In a vacuum, I would have expected the stock to be up closer to 10% on that guide. I believe the reason is investors are thinking about what's after...
Apple’s Upbeat Guide Lifts Stock, Beats Revenue Forecasts
Strong guide from $AAPL. Stock now up 2%. June revenue growth target of 14-17% vs. Street at 9%. Gross margin at 47.5%-48.5% vs. Street at 47.6%.
Apple Posts Record Q1 Revenue, Net Income, Margins
Apple revenues increased 17% over the last year to a new Q1 record of $111 billion. Net Income grew 19% year-over-year to new Q1 record of $30 billion. Gross margins increased to 49% (from 47% a year ago), the highest...