Home Prices Stay Sticky Without Massive Supply Shock
The history of homeprices going back over 80 years. It's rare for nominal home prices to fall; it's super rare to have a massive nominal housing price crash. Home prices are sticky unless you have massive supply and distress sales nationally https://t.co/VByB0afRN1
Affordable Housing Requires Suburban and Greenfield Development
PLEASE NOTE THIS IS **METRO** There is NO example of any City keeping housing costs low without building in the suburbs and greenfield as well.
Winning Deals Even With Money Left on Table
You can leave money in a deal and still win. It doesn't have to be "a perfect BRRRR" to be effective.
VRE Buyout Offers 5% Cap Rate, Minimal Downside
Good outline of the $VRE buyout. There’s probably a small chance of an overbid here. But, to be honest, probably close to zero, at a 5% implied cap rate. But we’ll see. Downside is only ~10% and the buyer isn’t walking, so...
Pending Contracts Near February 2025 Levels, Demand Remains Tame
Looks like pending contracts this month will match or slightly surpass February 2025. Here is a visual as of a couple days ago. Basically, buyer demand has been pretty tame still. Very slightly better. https://t.co/9ckA6qPxJo
Stable City Prices only Where Greenfield Development Thrives
This can be laid at the feet of the suburbs not building: Long Island, West Chester, Connecticut, and North Jersey There is no market with stable CITY prices which has not see a TON of greenfield development.
Fed Vice Chair Urges Big Banks Return to Mortgages
Big banks retreated from mortgages after the 2008 housing crash—now this Fed governor wants them back After a decade+ of "migration" toward nonbanks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says it's time to reconsider policy My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/6IY86V9OTy
More Pandemic Construction, Fewer Bidding Wars; Less Building, More.
🏗️The places that built the most housing during the pandemic have the fewest bidding wars, and the places that neglected to build have the most. 🏘️ See percent of homes selling above list price by county. https://t.co/giPGgmFuBr
Avoid Underwriting Errors to Maximize Build‑to‑Rent Profits
Build to Rent Deals: Avoid Underwriting Mistakes for Profit Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent and real estate investing. #realestate #investmentproperty #buildtorent
Closed Pharmacies Find New Life as Versatile Retail Hubs
Drugstores are shrinking fast, but their real estate is not becoming obsolete. Well-located former pharmacies are turning into some of the most versatile second-generation retail and healthcare sites in the market. ▫️Walgreens plans to close 1,200 stores (500 in 2025 alone). ▫️CVS...
Austin Rents Set to Rebound as Vacancy Dries
#Austin poised for another moment. Rents there w/probably rise in coming months after falling last 10 qtrs as trove of empty apts starts to run dry. #realestate #CRE #multifamily #tech #mortgage #investmentsales https://t.co/meHbZSFqVN via @WSJ https://t.co/T2gRvG2Sc2
DC Height Act Forces Windowless Bedrooms in Apartments
If you ever wondered why DC has so many apartments with windowless bedrooms … it’s the Height Act https://t.co/Axl6cvRgrf
Mortgage Demand Hits 10‑month Low, Biggest Homebuyer Strike
Mortgage demand to buy houses just plummeted to its lowest level in 10 months. The MBA mortgage purchase index is now at 150. 57% crash from pandemic peak. 40% drop from 2018-2019 levels. It's the biggest homebuyer strike ever. https://t.co/FVB0HYY4bc
Look Beyond Median Sales Price to Understand Home Price Trends
What are home prices doing? It depends. Some thoughts today about interpreting price change. I think it's really important to think beyond the median sales price in 2026. I hope this helps. Any thoughts? https://t.co/KmyRaAIto8
UWM’s 2025 Loan Volume Jumps 17% on Refinance Surge
The nation's top mortgage lender (UWM) funded $163.4B in home loans during 2025. That was up ~17% from $139.4B in 2024. Interestingly, it was led by refis, which surged to $70.3B from $43.4B, while home purchase lending actually fell slightly YoY.
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks After Inflation Adjustment
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.5% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-22-75d
Rising Sales, Inventory, and Prices Co‑occurred Historically
The reason I draw these black lines in 1980's, 1990's, and 2000s It was common that we had rising sales, rising inventory, and rising prices together, a lot of people = rising inventory with pricing falling on this site (This...
Rapid Apartment Boom Hits Non‑Rent‑Controlled Metro Areas
What share of your metro area's apartment units were built since 2020? These numbers put into context the sheer size of this development boom. More than 4 of every 10 existing apartments in Huntsville AL were built just since 2020. More...
Weekly Sales Dip Yet Up 12% YoY Amid Snow Melt
Purchase application data update -5% week to week +12% year over year So far this year, even with a higher bar to work with, every week has had positive year-over-year growth The last 2 weeks, our weekly pending sales data have...
Rising Rents and Lower Rates Drive Renters Toward Buying
For renters, a strong nudge to think about buying a home often comes from a big renewal increase. As the rental market crawls out of its recession, and mortgage rates start with a 5 not a 6, expect more renters...
Housing Inventory Down 2.6 M From 2008 Levels
For those asking about the gap in this chart today vs 2008 2008: 4,000,000 existing home sales 2008: 3.8 million active inventory Currently active inventory here is 1,220,000 roughly a 2.6 million gap Normal inventory levels are actually 2-2.5 million
Kali Chaudhuri Bets $470M to Revitalize LA Towers
#KaliChaudhuri looked at #LA's graffiti-scarred towers+saw potential. Poised to pay $470M for #OceanwidePlaza, storied for its #Chinese failure,+its 2 brethren. 'I'll try my very best to turn it around+make it a jewel' #realestate #multifamily #KPC https://t.co/CANYdyTniX
Essential Guide to Private Real Estate Incentives
If you are just learning about the private real estate business, either as a prospective GP or LP, please read this short book. It’s a pretty balanced explanation of the game, including the incentives driving the different players. https://t.co/3pvXJikrV5
Capital Raising Is the Real Estate Bottleneck
The biggest bottleneck in real estate is raising capital for your first deals. In my case, I raised $400k from eight friends after calling everyone I knew when I was 26. Others who’ve built real estate portfolios, how did you raise the...
Shanghai Loosens Homebuying Rules to Combat Property Slump
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
House GOP Meets Treasury on Large‑investor Home Ban
"House Republicans will travel to the Treasury Department on Wednesday morning to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and discuss the large investor prohibition. Members will also discuss the Housing for the 21st Century Act" https://t.co/BwCRGysRG8
Vermont's Statewide Pre‑approval Needed; Local Opt‑in Hampers Scaling
This effort in Vermont to establish statewide pre-approved plans is a step in the right direction—key to the scalability needed for affordable infill housing, especially modular/manufactured housing. But making it a local "opt in" kind of undermines that. https://t.co/RxlmZXG3iY
Home Prices Stay Resilient Across 2.75%-18% Rates
The history of home prices when rates ranged from 2.75% to 18% during this period. https://t.co/I0aE7X40Jt
Missed $15k‑$60k US Homes During GFC
That time during the GFC when you went to buy U.S. real estate, found thousands of listings in a few zip codes with asking prices from $15k CAD to $60k CAD, and Canadians real estate “experts” told you that it...
Master Five Skills, Close a Deal in 30 Days
If you want a deal in 30 days, master these five things: finding sellers, negotiating contracts, finding buyers, raising capital, and managing construction. Learn the skills, get paid.
Chicago's Migration Reverses: In
Migration patterns for the Chicago MSA in the past few years really illustrate what I've called "The Great Stay." Q2 2025 was the first period in many years where inbound migration exceeded outbound migration. Over the last 8 years, total moves...
Medical Office Rent Growth Returns to 1.9
🏥 Medical Office Update: Rent growth is settling back to historical norms (1.9% YoY) as the inflation wave passes. Individual metros still vary widely. Despite the normalization, occupancy remains at a healthy 92.5%. High construction costs are keeping supply in check....
Large Homes Driving Spring Price Surge in Market
Larger homes are starting to get into contract. The dotted line represents preliminary sales for February and pendings that will close in March. We typically see a spring uptick in prices, and some of that has to do with the...
Yoda Targets Transamerica Pyramid Amid German Investor Pressure
#Yoda to buy #TransamericaPyramid, #SanFran icon. as seller #Shvo faces mounting tension w/#German investors. #BVK #DeutscheFinance #realestate #CRE #BayArea #mortgage #foreclosure #MandarinOriental #Egypt https://t.co/7oosJbQTvE
Smaller Starter Homes Make Housing Affordable for Young Families
We need to build *smaller* housing Smaller is the primary attribute of "Starter Homes." It's smaller SO THAT that a younger family can afford it, earlier It's why @americanhousing is building rowhomes. They're the perfect prototype. And have been for centuries. In...
Amazon Invests $12B in Shreveport Data Centers, Boosting LA Jobs
#Amazon in $12B love affair w/#LA as it plans series of #datacenters near #Shreveport. 'Puts LA at center of operations relied on acx country+connects our community to jobs' #ecommerce #infrastructure #realestate #CRE #AI #electricity #GovLandry https://t.co/27YgUCMaNa
Private Credit Boom Delays Maturity Wall, Now Cracks Appear
What my post from December 2023 overlooked was the massive expansion in private credit. Private credit stepped in aggressively to fill financing gaps, refinance maturities, and provide bridge capital, delaying the "wall of maturities" many buyers were eager to capitalize on. Now...
Rates Slip To
The daily average mortgage rate dropped to 5.99% on February 23, the lowest level since September 2022, except for a few hours on January 9 when rates fell to the same level. A buyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford...
Bed Bath & Beyond Expands Into Home Financing Services
Bed Bath & Beyond plans to offer mortgages, HELOCs, renovation loans, and title services. They are also partnering with Figure Technologies to deliver digital home equity products to consumers. The move apparently advances its objective of becoming the "Everything Home Company."
Spring Accelerates Sales: Days on Market Drop
Seeing spring vibes in the stats as expected. It’s taking less time to sell. Here’s a preliminary look at days on market. The dotted line for March is based on pending contracts in February.
Spring Slashes Home Sale Times, Days on Market Drop
Seeing spring vibes in the stats as expected. It’s taking less time to sell. Here’s a preliminary look at days on market. The dotted line for March is based on pending contracts in February. https://t.co/Jqac1DVmAr
Rare 240‑Unit West Palm Beach Deal Under $300K/Unit
Offers Due March 4: Rare, (240-unit) Surface-Parked Multifamily Offering, 7min from Downtown West Palm Beach - Asking less than $300k/door (built in 2019) with a 3.91% Fixed Rate Assumable Loan
Mortgage Rates Dip to Lowest Since August 2022
Actual LOCKED mortgage rates hit the lowest point since August 2022, per Optimal Blue real-time data. The 30-year fixed fell to 5.945% yesterday for a conforming loan backed by Fannie/Freddie. FHA was 5.859% and VA an even lower 5.608%. Decent.
GTA New Home Sales Hit 45‑Year Low Amid Population Boom
246 New Construction Homes Sold In The GTA In January: Lowest Since 1981: What Is Going On Here? Lowest in 45 Years? Even Though the Population is more than DOUBLE This a truly disturbing number Why is it happening? How did we get...
Study’s Condo Price Metric Ignores Fees, Misleads
The perfect r example of why not accounting for HOA/Fees + Insurance is an incomplete indicator of “prices” … Which is the methodological error at the core of the paper cited in the viral Atlantic article on housing The study follows...
Data Center Expansion Hits Critical Inflection Point
Property Play: Data center expansion reaches an ‘inflection point’ https://t.co/iqTShSOBHO @JLL @NuveenInv #realestate #realestateinvesting #datacenter #AI
U.S. Home Prices Show Modest Year‑Over‑Year Gains in December
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December FHFA House Prices up 1.8% YoY in December https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-129
NYC Real Estate Stumped by Roosevelt Hotel
#NYC #realestate scratches its head over future of #RooseveltHotel as owner #Pakistan embraces redev under a #JV, an idea that's only been kicking around for 5 years. #DC baffled. #hotel #GrandCentral #CRE #Trump #GSA https://t.co/quNa74iZS1
Start Small, Leverage Vacancy Data for First Deal
Your first deal doesn’t need to be big My first deal was tiny. A 3-unit multifamily deal. Bought it for just $200k At the time I was working in real estate private equity and was spending my nights and weekends looking for...
Austin Rents Poised to Rebound Despite Current Oversupply
Still feels a bit too early to declare a rent rebound in Austin, but it'll happen eventually. The demand drivers are still stronger than other headlines have suggested, and massive supply remains the big headwind... until it isn't anymore. https://t.co/gMblq6btg0