US Large‑Cap Valuations Still Overpriced, Risks Loom
Recent rotation has helped resolve some of U.S. large cap stocks’ valuation excesses, but risks remain to the downside for U.S. multiples. Large cap growth’s sales multiple is still near its all-time high, at about 6X, and growth’s earnings multiple may still be at least 15% too rich to value. The eye-popping growth premium is not the only evident excess in stocks, however, for now large cap value stocks are also trading very near all-time high valuations. These very high expectations have started to weigh on U.S. large cap growth stocks and may remain a problem for U.S. large cap returns overall in the near term.
Software Stocks Face Fear‑Driven Selloff, Not Real Decline
Software is getting hit on fear of substitution more than evidence of structural deterioration in enterprise spending. When price action gets ahead of reality, the re-rating can be violent if the narrative cools.
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
Analyst's PANW Recommendation Misses, Stock Tanks
I was astonished that Bryn Talkington's feet were not held to the fire today after she recommended (confidentally) $PANW yesterday. Four hours later the company guided lower and the stock tanked. Does the network basically not give a shit (about their most...
Retail Shorts Ahead as High‑Income Spending Slips
The show panelists (don't be shocked, they are bullish) love retail/consumer stocks - we shorted $COST and $WMT in the last 24 hours. We are looking for more consumer shorts. We believe lower home and stock prices will take away from the...
Missing Top 10 Days Slashes Stock Returns
Last year, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, but if you missed the best 10 days that dropped to minus 9.5%. Since '90, stocks have gained 7.7% a year, but if you missed the 10 best days each year? It goes down...
ETF Inflows Double Historic Pace in First Six Weeks
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
FOMC Minutes Reveal Split Views: Cut, Hold, or Hike
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
Four Real-Time Alerts Launched, All Timestamped Since
4 new Real-Time Alerts (2 Longs, 2 Shorts) fired off today Every. Single. One. #timestamped since 2008 https://t.co/alAFTYikLd
Record Hedge Fund Bet on Magnificent 7 Risks Collapse
⚠️Almost everybody is piling into the SAME TRADE: Hedge fund net allocation to Magnificent 7 stocks is up to a RECORD 22%. This is more than DOUBLE the level seen in 2022. At the same time, these stocks remain among the most popular...
Fed Minutes Reveal Larger Faction Demanding Higher Cut Threshold
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
Micron Poised for Record Highs Amid Memory Shortage
Can Micron do it again? $MU heading back towards record territory as memory shortages continue.
Mania Depression: Elites Stagnate, Borrowers Slip Further
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
Herbalife Stands Strong, Remains AI‑Proof Since November
Herbalife $HLF apparently is AI-proof Nice move since 11/20 when they came hard for calls and it continues https://t.co/G7vt2JRhuJ
Use Return Dispersion to Forecast Rotations and Outperform
Periods of high return dispersion are an opportunity for investors. As return performance gaps widen and valuation spreads develop, the ability to quantify the current rotation regime and anticipate the next one can deliver outperformance relative to...
Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
S&P Adds $500B, Gold Climbs; PCE Inflation Watch
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars...
Gold Rallies 13% as Tech Stocks Stumble
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
Sector Rotation Timing Yields Asset‑rich Returns
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
AI Spending and Consumer Surge Mask Weak Underlying Growth
Recent top and bottom line (as well as profit margins) have been disproportionately impacted by massive AI cap spending and high end consumer spending. The former has a half life to it. The later may not be sustained if home and stock...
Retail Traders Set Record Demand on Citadel Platform
Citadel on flows, via Bbrg: Retail traders spent a record amount snapping up software shares on Citadel Securities’ platform, according to Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at the firm, which began tracking the data in 2017: “Net notional...
Markets Mirror Trump’s Shifting Policy Narratives
You just have to respect markets and the games they play Trump first term: Public is all about long Energy, short Solar.... Solar stocks go on an epic run Trump 2nd term: Tariffs going to crush International economies.... International stocks just thrashing...
Oversold Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, AI Stocks Poised for Rally
Quality infrastructure software, cybersecurity stocks and some AI names are now *very* oversold and due for a multi-month rally. The recent indiscriminate selling in SaaS has crushed these stocks but the sale won't last forever.
Equal‑Weighted S&P Nears Cap‑Weighted Levels Amid Broadening Market
The market has been broadening out nicely as of late, and since the April 2025 Tariff tantrum low, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has almost caught up to the cap-weighted index (34% vs 38%). It has been good to see....
Industrial Earnings Surge 26% Against Negative Forecast
Earnings growth for industrials is up more than 26%. It was expected to be negative this time two months ago. That is simply incredible. https://t.co/MTxPkrvtdA
S&P 500 Hits Best Revenue Growth Since 2022, Yet Peaks
Good news and bad news? Best quarter for S&P 500 revenue growth since Q3 '22. But this quarter is likely the peak for revenue growth. https://t.co/Dp33tx0bca
S&P Advance/Decline New Highs Signal Continued Rally
More new highs in the S&P 500 advance/decline line suggests price will follow. They keep talking about Hindenburg, but this says continue to ignore them. https://t.co/o48OrEZF4o
Amazon's Historic Loss Streak Meets Surprising Stock Highs
If you'd have told me Amazon just had one of it's longest losing streaks in history, I probably wouldn't have expected stocks to be flirting with new highs. https://t.co/kXBq6SpLEA
Dow Poised for Rare 10-Month Winning Streak
The Dow would be up 10 months in a row if it is higher in February. Since 1900, that has only happened four other times. https://t.co/0AB887hP7Q
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
Amazon Slides Below Key Support Amid CapEx Concerns
$AMZN - 210.00 was a key support...now sitting in dangerous territory. Market is still unhappy about the company's $200 billion CapEx.
Our Portfolios Stay Calm as Rivals Tumble
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Portfolios Are Experiencing Lower Volatility While The Competitors Are Crashing https://t.co/8ToxLIPXph via @hedgeye
Dow Shuffle: Exxon's Rise, Salesforce's Decline
One August 31, 2020, Exxon Mobil was kicked out of the Dow. It was replaced by Salesforce. Exxon is up 271% and Salesforce is down 32%. https://t.co/euMlopjZdV
EW Tech Beats S&P 500 Amid Ongoing Rotation
Despite the YTD losses in the Tech sector, the EW Tech sector (the avg Tech stock) is outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Plenty of Tech names to own that remain in an uptrend as a market rotation continues to...
Quant Quakes: Critical Levels Highlight Vulnerable CTAs
Critical Levels For Quant Quakes 💫Historic Dispersion 💫CTAs are Vulnerable 💫Negative Gamma 💫The Week Ahead 💫Gamma Mechanics https://t.co/vAJSwKFzi4
NBIS Shines as Top Super‑growth Chart Again
$NBIS is one of the better looking super growth charts as it’s a focus again https://t.co/hjNDR9y01l
Failed Breakdowns Trigger Sell‑the‑Bounce in Range Markets
📺 FAILED BREAKDOWN, BUT STILL A SELL-THE-BOUNCE MARKET I expected a possible downside range resolution yesterday, but that did not happen – $SPY held $675–$676, reclaimed Friday’s low, and triggered a tactical reversal. – $QQQ broke down, reclaimed a key level, and gave...
SPX Futures Hold Support, Cue Tactical RDR Buys
$SPX futures +30 after holding key range support 6780–6790 again — that zone remains intact. For active traders, look for tactical RDR-type buys, then trim & trail into early strength while we manage the range. Resistance: 6880–6902 https://t.co/t51qiJIU4L
New QQQ Tactics and Sell Rules for Trade
$qqq gave many ways to tactically adjust yesterday around a few key pivots. Now u can use some sell rules to manage the trade https://t.co/qldCOKB0UE
Amazon's Shift to Capital‑intensive Model Triggers Sell‑off
The transition of $AMZN (and some other MAG7 constituents) from a capital light business model to a capital intensive business model is more than three months old... the transformation has been measured in multiple quarters and not in months. It...
Calm Market Surface Masks Powerful Underlying Volatility
The current market picture we paint is well embodied by a quote from Jules Verne in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. “The sea was perfectly calm; scarcely a ripple disturbed its surface. But beneath this tranquil exterior, powerful currents were ...
Media Hype Ignored Risks, Gemini IPO Crashes
Remember the excitement in the business media about the Gemini IPO? $GEMI The shares have crashed from over $45 to $6... Remember the softballs thrown to the executives and the admiration bestowed on the Winkelvoss twins by the Fin TV community? I do....
Investors Underprice Risk as Stocks Reach Extreme Overvaluation
Coming up on @TheStreetPro (a multi-part series) Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind * Investors are underpricing risk * Equities - both fundamentally and from a valuation standpoint - remain between somewhere between very overvalued and pornographically overvalued "Trouble with you Is the trouble with me Got two...
AI-Integrated Security Boosts PANW Demand and Value
PANW strong q/good initial guide with CyberArk. The need for AI-native, integrated security platforms rather than fragmented point solutions is further increasing demand for PANW platform. AI increasing PANW’s value proposition-not displacing it. $225 PT..very well positioned🏆
SPX Futures Jump 40 as SPY Holds Key Range
$spx futures +40 after $spy held $675 and reclaimed $677 to keep the range intact yesterday. A few RDR’s across the board to cover some shorts and put on small risk. We’ll see if early strength holds...
M7 Tech Stocks Test Low, Threatening Repeat Correction
However, as the AI narrative continues to unfold, from euphoria a few months ago to handwringing now (over the commodification of the SaaS stocks and the unknown ROI of hyperscaler capex), the Might Mag 7 is showing some strains. The...
Global Indices Inch Higher as India VIX Plunges
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +50.50 (0.20%) 25,760.50 DowJones +32.26 (+0.07%) 49,533.19 Nasdaq +31.71 (+0.14%) 22,578.38 India Vix -0.6600 (-4.95%) 12.6700 S&P 500 +7.05 (+0.10%) 6,843.22
Markets May Slip as Fed Delays Rate Cuts
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
PANW Chase at $221 Requires 47% Rally to Breakeven
If you "loved the chart" and chased $PANW at $221, you now only have to be up +47% (from here) to get back to breakeven #bags https://t.co/UStQewrZkp
Media's Shallow Analysis Misleads Retail Investors
No, Kip, not pumping and dumping $PANW. Just no or limited investment process, opinions full of hubris, memorized sound bytes, no company spreadsheets/models, no timestamps - which "works" when the tide is coming in but not when the tide is going...