Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered near $1.1740 and the yen slipped toward ¥154.75. Meanwhile, Asian currencies showed divergent moves: the yuan stayed in a narrow CNH6.88‑6.91 band ahead of the PBOC’s fix, and the Australian dollar hovered near A$0.71 amid expectations of another rate hike. Upcoming data releases—including U.S. Q4 GDP revisions, Eurozone CPI, and Chinese loan prime rates—will shape the next week’s FX landscape.
Heads Up: US Treasury to Release TIC Data Later Today
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
Indian Banks: From Credit Provision to Liquidity Provision?
India’s corporate funding is increasingly sourced domestically as the yield gap with US Treasuries narrows to about 2.5%, eroding the cost advantage of foreign‑currency debt. Deepening private‑credit markets now finance even near‑investment‑grade borrowers, exemplified by a recent $3.4 billion rupee‑denominated deal....
Update: Casio (6952 JP)
Casio (6952 JP) is entering a turnaround phase, now trading at a 1.0× enterprise‑value‑to‑sales multiple. The valuation suggests the market sees modest growth potential after recent operational improvements. Management has outlined cost‑cutting measures, new product launches in the G‑Shock line, and...
China Financials: The Great Rotation’s Overlooked Engine
The episode examines China’s financial sector—banks, brokers, and emerging digital intermediaries—as the engine behind the anticipated “great rotation” in the 2026 equity outlook. It explains how tightening yields and improving credit conditions are creating nuanced opportunities beyond a simple "buy...
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Data Impacting Asia 16 - 20 February & Markets Closed for Lunar New Year. Plus Things...
The episode outlines the upcoming market closures across Asia for the Lunar New Year and the U.S. President’s Day, detailing each country's holiday schedule and the impact on trading calendars. It highlights a surge in U.S. customs bond insufficiencies, reaching...
Chinese Loan Data Out After Market - Lighter than Expected
The episode reviews China’s latest loan data released after market close, noting new yuan loans of CNY 4.71 trillion in January—significantly below the CNY 4.8 trillion forecast and far under expectations of around CNY 5 trillion. While total social financing surged to CNY...
Asian Initial Thoughts: US Inflation, Markets Closed on Monday, Chinese House Prices & Loans
The episode outlines the upcoming Lunar New Year market closures across major Asian economies and the U.S. President’s Day holiday, forecasting lighter trading volumes. It highlights the imminent release of the Fed’s Miran speech and the China House Price Index,...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 13 February 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
The episode covers four major Asian market stories: Singapore’s 2026 budget under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, which projects a surplus, boosts AI investment, and offers household cost‑of‑living credits; the political fallout in the US as the House votes to overturn...
Mainland Investors Buy Dip On Earnings Unease
Mainland investors used the final pre‑Lunar New Year Stock Connect window to snap up roughly $600 million of Hong Kong‑listed shares, focusing on internet giants Tencent, Xiaomi and Meituan. The broader Asian equity landscape was mixed, with Korea and Thailand gaining...
The "Atomic" Rotation: 3 Trillion Won Floods KOSPI as Capital Abandons "Bits" For "Atoms"
The episode analyzes a dramatic shift on Feb 12, 2026, where the Korean KOSPI surged over 3% on record foreign inflows while U.S. tech indices fell, highlighting a rotation from software‑focused “bits” to hardware‑centric “atoms.” Host LoRosha explains that institutional...
China Unveils New Year Measures as Consumption Data Dips
Chinese local governments announced a suite of stimulus measures ahead of the longest Lunar New Year break, extending the holiday to nine days. The central government allocated 2.05 billion yuan in vouchers, red‑envelopes and subsidies to directly benefit consumers. January's consumer...
Xi’s Broken Heart: Why China’s Markets Are Bleeding Out
The episode examines the growing divergence between China’s onshore stock markets and Hong Kong’s offshore market, arguing that this split reflects a deepening mistrust of Xi Jinping’s political control over finance. While mainland indices appear stable, the offshore market is...
India Is Kicking Trump's Butt on the Trade Deal, TACO Time (Again)
The White House has issued an updated U.S.–India trade factsheet, removing a reference to India cutting tariffs on pulses and softening language around digital services commitments. The document also shifts wording from India “intending” to purchase more U.S. goods to...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.9438 (Vs. Estimate at 6.9109)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.9438 on Tuesday, notably higher than the Reuters estimate of 6.9109. The central bank maintains its +/-2% trading band around the reference rate, with the yuan closing the previous...
ICYMI - PBOC Pledges Loose Policy, Ample Liquidity in Q4 Report
China’s central bank reaffirmed an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in its Q4 report, promising ample liquidity and the option to cut reserve‑requirement ratios or interest rates. The PBOC highlighted support for domestic demand, technology innovation and small‑medium enterprises while keeping...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9109 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is set to announce the USD/CNY reference rate around 0115 GMT, with Reuters estimating a midpoint of 6.9109. China’s managed‑floating system keeps the yuan within a ±2 % band around this rate, blending market data with...
Westpac Sees RBNZ Holding OCR, Nudging First Rate Hike to December 2026
Westpac projects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in its February 18 meeting, but expects the first rate hike to arrive in December 2026, slightly earlier than previously forecast. The bank notes...
Economic and Event Calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 11, 2026, China Inflation Data
China will publish its January 2026 CPI and PPI data today, offering the first post‑holiday inflation signals of the year. Analysts expect headline consumer inflation to edge up to roughly 0.6‑1.2% year‑on‑year, buoyed by seasonal food and service price spikes...
USD/JPY Continues to Fall After US Retail Sales Miss
USD/JPY fell for a second day as Japan’s new lower‑house majority under Prime Minister Fumio Takaichi spurred a rally in Japanese equities and a shift of capital into the yen. The decline was amplified by weak U.S. retail‑sales data and...
Gradual End of Bank Dominance in India
India’s household financial portfolio is shifting away from traditional safe assets toward equities and managed funds. Between March 2021 and March 2025, bank deposits fell from roughly 47.5% to 43.5% of total financial assets, while mutual‑fund and pension holdings rose...
ASEAN Inc.: One Portfolio, Seven Markets — and a Clear Test of Southeast Asia’s Investment Story
The episode breaks down the ASEAN Inc. portfolio—a $1 million, equally weighted allocation across seven U.S.-listed ETFs covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and a regional ASEAN‑40 fund—and shows it delivered a 21.3% annualized total return through February 2026, beating...
Carabao (CBG TB)
Carabao Energy Drink (CBG TB) is being touted as Thailand’s equivalent to Monster Beverage, trading at roughly 12 times forward earnings. The forward P/E of 12× is well below the global energy‑drink peer average, indicating a potential valuation discount. Carabao commands about...
China’s Property Developers: The Other Side of the Coin
The episode revisits Panda Perspectives' May 2025 deep‑dive on Chinese property developers, evaluating how its thesis—that state‑owned enterprises (SOEs) would outpace privately owned developers (POEs) across balance sheets, funding, land banks, margins, and market share—has held up after nine months. The...
Inside China’s EV Boom: Why the World’s Most Competitive EV Market Is in China
China remains the world’s largest electric‑vehicle market, with millions of EVs on its streets daily. The ecosystem features a dense mix of legacy manufacturers like BYD and tech entrants such as Xiaomi and Huawei, each launching high‑performance or software‑centric models....
KOSPI Surges +1.57%: Hardware Sovereignty (Samsung)
In this episode LoRosha analyzes the February 4 Asian market session, highlighting a 1.57% rise in the KOSPI driven by Samsung Electronics breaking the 169,000 KRW mark and reaching a $720 billion market cap. He argues that despite heavy foreign net...
Markets Say “Wrong Kevin”, Xiaomi & Ford Could Partner Up
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
China’s Industrial Inflection
The episode examines China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) slump in 2025 and the government’s new policy push in January 2026 to shift spending from traditional construction toward smarter factories and digital infrastructure. It argues that this pivot could turn FAI...
Asian Macro Initial Thoughts, Australia & India Re-Open. Currencies, Tariffs and Earnings on the Agenda as Gold & Silver Rally.
The episode surveys the volatile Asian macro landscape, highlighting Trump‑triggered tariff threats to South Korea, shifting US immigration policy, and Xi’s military purge, while noting strong performances in emerging‑market currencies like the ringgit and Singapore dollar. It reviews the earnings...
China Weekly Wrap: Markets, Macro & Tech
The episode reviews the latest China market dynamics, highlighting a split performance where Shenzhen‑focused growth stocks outperformed while Shanghai mega‑caps and state‑heavy sectors lagged. Offshore Hong Kong showed modest gains with defensive sectors leading, and regional momentum was driven by...
E Ink (8069 TT)
E Ink remains the unrivaled supplier of e‑paper displays, controlling virtually the entire global market. The company trades at a lofty 16× price‑to‑earnings multiple, reflecting investor optimism despite modest growth. A breakthrough colour‑display technology is poised to expand its addressable...
The RMB Weakness that Wasn't
In this episode the hosts dissect the recent breach of the 7.00 RMB per USD threshold, a move they had forecast despite official resistance. They revisit their earlier stance against a "balance‑sheet recession" narrative, argue that the fundamentals still support further...
The Dollar Consolidates While Japan Steps Up Its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...