Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's watch. https://t.co/fyXh1J4qI9
15 AI Governance Advisories to Shape Your Roadmap
Announcing StarCIO's AI Strategy & Governance Workshops - 15 Advisories to select from & evolve your roadmap. We guide the leadership team on a pragmatic AI vision, define clear guardrails, and establish a responsible path to value. https://t.co/NJUcJvxodM #AI #CIO...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Kharg Island Tension Could Trigger Market Shock Soon
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
Boston Beer Matches Ten‑year Buybacks in Three Years
Boston Beer repurchased ~$530 million of its common stock over the past three years, which is roughly comparable to what the company spend on repurchases over the previous decade (FY13 - FY22) https://t.co/pROlFqwX7E
Customers Want Simple, Not Incomplete—MVP Misconception
In new products, customers forgive simplicity but not incompleteness. They might even prefer simplicity, but they don’t prefer barely-functioning software. That’s why "MVP" is the wrong idea. Agree? https://t.co/qNyxPrTDV9
Real Sabbaticals Demand Tough Financial and Client Decisions
How to actually prep for a real break from your business (3 things I did to make it happen): + Something financial has to change. Whether that's letting go of a team member, ending a service, or accepting reduced income for...
AI Model Ads Look Fake, Killing Conversions
Everyone is doing AI image ads wrong. Especially model shots. You can spot them instantly. Plastic skin. Dead eyes. Weird hands. Fake lighting. Brands think they’re saving money… But they’re actually killing conversions. Meanwhile there’s a hidden method that makes AI models look 100% real. Ultra-realistic. Natural...
Building a User‑Friendly Tool Discovery Platform: Vision & Challenges
Learn about the vision, initial steps, and challenges faced in creating a user-friendly platform to easily find the right tools. Stream now: 🔗 https://t.co/bNZWCzgLQ6 📽️ https://t.co/4w5Ib6cmK1 🔗https://t.co/DmYp21N5Kv #MachineShop #Motool #MachinistTools #ProductivityTools https://t.co/Rg7LoCf7Ko
AI Dialogue Shifts to Governance, Identity, Security
Great roundtable this week in San Jose with NVIDIA and Palo Alto. What stood out most: the AI conversation has leveled up. Less hype, more real discussion about things like governance, identity for AI agents, and securing non deterministic systems.
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Integrate Broker and Proprietary Search with Unified Tools
Key tools to run a broker & proprietary search simultaneously. The problem is not realizing this is a business system. https://t.co/TkOPkMEB8f #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/DwMbyj3qjL
FCC and DOJ Approved Nexstar‑TEGNA Deal Illegally
The fix was in at the @FCC & @JusticeATR to approve the massive Nexstar-TEGNA deal. People need to know how abnormal and illegal the process was. I talk about it here: https://t.co/rmcV0J9w0N
War’s Short‑term Impact, yet Markets Thrive Long‑term
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
My Missed Multifamily Investment Dwarfs Employee Errors
Any time one of our employees makes a mistake, I remind myself: No mistake any of them could make would come *close* to costing us as much money as my decision not to buy multifamily in secondary Western markets 2015-2018.
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Trump Should Keep Powell Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
Warsh will be out hawkes this year; Trump might as well keep Powell as Fed chair until the inflation story changes. No point in criticizing your guy for rate cuts now.
Ask Key Questions First to Personalize Your Demo
"Hey Brian, can you just show us the demo?" Old me: Rollover, say yes, and hop in so I would be 'buyer-centric.' But I'd also know I lost all control of the call and the demo would fall flat, without knowing what...
G10 Hawkish Policies Weigh on Dollar Strength
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Hormuz Tensions Could Spike Oil Past $200, Triggering Long‑term Chaos
Reupping this as the continued Hormuz chaos seems increasingly likely to drive oil above $200/barrel, followed by years of hydrocarbon market chaos
Raising Rates over a Closed Oil Strait Is Absurd
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
Prorating Vs. Gating: Different Tender Offer Mechanics
Prorating investors in a standard 5% quarterly tender offer is not the same as gating or halting redemptions. https://t.co/p9tLyxgsOi
Quick Cleanup Removes Manual Action, Visibility Restored
Example of a manual action being removed for this publisher. Looks like they cleaned up the problem relatively quickly and had the manual action removed. Now showing back up across Google surfaces. Of course, they probably will not return...
EBay's Depop Acquisition Targets Younger Shoppers
The @ebay acquisition of @depop from @etsy makes so much sense, especially because EBay has been trying to build its customer base and reach younger demographics. #ebay #depop #etsy #fashion #business
Euro Summit Highlights Growing Economic Uncertainty Amid Middle East Turmoil
Glad to join leaders at last night’s Euro Summit in Brussels. We discussed the current economic situation in light of events in the Middle East, which has made the outlook significantly more uncertain. https://t.co/bHxScsvXzq
Friday's Must-Read: Finance Turmoil, Political
10 Friday AM Reads -Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don't Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal -Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026 -Demand destruction has begun -Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In -Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove...
Nexstar‑T
D.C. Memo: @NXSTMediaGroup-@TEGNA Deal Sails Through @BrendanCarrFCC in a Speedy 121 Days; CEO Sook Makes a Few Minor Concessions But That’s It; Nexstar has two years to sell six TV stations but in the end, it might not...
Focus on What Never Changes, Not Every New Tool
Don’t ask: “How can I survive all this change?” Ask: “What *won’t* change?” Jeff Bezos built Amazon by asking that exact question. He didn’t obsess over competitors or waste time trying to predict the future. Instead, he built Amazon around things he knew customers...
US May Permit Iran Oil Sales to Boost Supply
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
CNY Posts Lowest USD Fix Since April 2023
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Oil Prices Soar Despite Limited Infrastructure Damage, Demand at Risk
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...
Consistency Beats Constant Reinvention for Business Growth
Most businesses stall because the founder keeps reinventing the direction every 90 days. consistency builds trust and trust compounds revenue.
Markets Unfazed as Iran Eases Hormuz Oil Flow
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
Only Pitch These Seed Investors with $20K+ MRR
If you’re doing $20K MRR, here are 10 Seed investors writing $1M-$5M checks 💰 - First Round Capital - Bessemer Venture Partners - Boldstart Ventures - Accel - Founder Collective - Bonfire Ventures - Uncork Capital - Point Nine Capital - Costanoa Ventures - SaaStr Fund If you do not have...
US Chooses Between Lifting Iran Sanctions or Invading Kharg
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...
Tech Alone Won’t Transform; People and Process Matter
Decades of SAP implementations reveal a key lesson: technology alone doesn't drive transformation. Its integrated, end-to-end capabilities are impressive, but true organizational improvement hinges on more than just the tech. #SAP #DigitalTransformation #BusinessTech https://t.co/Clcyl4pq0Z
Europe/UK Rate Hike Likely: 12% April Odds
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
Trump’s Southeast Asia Policy Turns Allies Into Economic Targets
America’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia under Trump has been: 1. Slap them with the some of the highest tariff rates in the world 2. Launch Section 301 investigations of their trade practices 3. Create a global energy and commodities crisis that...
Oil Embargo, Not Escalation, Is War’s Off‑ramp
This war needs an off-ramp. That isn't military escalation or just declaring "mission accomplished." Instead, it's an embargo of Iran's oil. That'll throw Iran into chaos and the upside for oil prices is limited given how much they've already risen... https://t.co/t20Z7S85OZ...
CEO Turnover Soars 47% Amid Heightened Scrutiny
On 47% spike in public CEO exits @ChallengerGray “Public companies extremely scrutinized. Shareholders & boards demanding faster results, social media shortened window for reputational recovery & shifting government regs creating new funding uncertainties for many organizations.”
Swaps Market Overprices Central Bank Rate Hikes
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Middle East Conflict Set to Spike Retail Prices, Deter Shoppers
How The Middle East Conflict Will Push Retail Prices Up And Consumers Into Retreat via @forbes https://t.co/vHxGN0OKET
FP&A Should Lead, Shaping Decisions Before the Slides
When a CFO asks: “Who should lead this initiative?” It’s rarely about perfect files or extra slides. FP&A progression starts earlier — when your insight shapes decisions, not just explains them.
FCC Greenlights Nexstar‑Tegna Merger, Fueling Local State Media
The creation of state media continues at the local level under Carr's FCC. This is even more dangerous than Ellison Inc., for people still watch local TV. FCC approves merger of local television owners Nexstar and Tegna as two lawsuits seek...
Money Printing Steals
AI Productivity Stolen By Inflation 1. AI expands the supply of goods and services. That should mean lower prices for you—a pure win. 2. But that win gets stolen. The system prints more money, inflating prices to "offset" the natural drop....
Bank Lending Shifts: NBFIs Grow 60%, Corporates
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU
USD Rebounds After Over‑reaction; Short Positions Risky This Weekend
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants...