Adobe Firefly Custom Models Reshape Brand Content Supply Chain
Adobe Firefly's Custom Models and the Brand Content Supply Chain with The latest new models https://t.co/qiYLZDVkia
AUDUSD Net Longs Reach Highest Level Since 2017
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
AI Generates Complete Content Strategy, From Topics to Calendar
I built a skill for Claude Code that plans your entire content strategy — what to write, how often, and why it matters. You describe your product and audience, and it maps out topic clusters with pillar pages and supporting articles,...
UK Rates Too Tight; Cutting Interest May Avert Recession
You are not alone. "Monetary conditions in the UK are... appreciably tighter than they were in 2022, and households are under more financial strain. The Bank of England does not have anything like as much room to raise rates as...
Incumbents and Fintechs Yield Same Profit Margins
Schwab pays ~20 bps on cash. Wealthfront pays 330 bps. Schwab keeps 290 bps. Wealthfront keeps 60 bps. Craziest part -- both have ~36% net income margins. The ops heavy, extractive incumbent model and the tech powered client-aligned model converge at the same...
CIOs Must Demand Explainability, Documentation, Ownership Pre‑Production
CIOs must insist on explainability, documentation, and ownership before anything hits production. #AI #CIO https://t.co/p18hdtdbZn
Estimating Market Value for $1.5B
I’m sure there’s no desire, or rush, to go public anytime soon, clearly. But as a thought exercise, based on their current numbers: >$1.5b revenue >$250m adjusted EBITDA >10% organic ARR growth >ca$1.4T technology services TAM What do you think the public markets would pay for...
Copper Slump vs Oil Surge Signals Weak Demand
Copper just dropped 4.8% in a single session. LME inventories at highest since 2019. When Dr. Copper rolls over while oil surges, it's telling you something ugly about global demand. https://t.co/qDHoGINfEz
Trump Exits, World Left to Clean His Mess
Trump is bailing out and leaving the rest of the world to clear up his mess.
SoH Closure Slashes GDP, Boosts Oil Prices
Oil price and GDP effects of SoH closure for one, two or three quarters. https://t.co/JOzrf3rVQR
Create Self‑Running Systems, Inspire Continuous Improvement
My goal on Twitter is to help you build systems that run without you. That way, sometime in the future, your systems will inspire me to build better ones. That's a win-win.
Core Oil Earnings Track Oil Price Fluctuations
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
New Free Guide: Quick Answers for Selling Your Business
I have just updated our free resource page for business owners who have questions about selling a small business. Find quick answers and links to videos that go more in-depth. https://t.co/1IbWgvLJNT
Four Precise Questions Replace Generic Discovery for Founders
Founders: Stop generic discovery. Use these exact questions: What's the cost of not solving this now?" Who else is involved in these decisions? What's blocked past attempts to fix this? How would success be measured? 4 questions = complete qualification.
Monetize Services, Not Raw Markdown, for Dev Tools
For agentic systems founders and dev tools founders: People do not want to pay for raw markdown and they shouldn't have to. But they may pay for orchestration, hosting, updates, collaboration, portability, analytics, and managed execution. These can be great...
Oil Prices Surge Amid Fourth Week of Iran Conflict
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
AI Agents Matching Human Salaries Cut Costs Dramatically
In 2025, we predicted that 2026 would be the year agents would earn as much as a person. It’s already happening. In markets where there’s a labor shortage and an urgent need to hire people, we are seeing agents command 75%, 85%,...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
Reps Prefer Granola Over Gong and AI Summaries
keep hearing AEs rave about @meetgranola...gong is for managers (and AI summaries are just ok), granola is what the reps actually want
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Shift From Deal‑Based to Process‑Based Culture
If you’re living and dying based on what’s happening in your team's pipeline this month, you’re running a dysfunctional organization. Instead, I want my team living and dying on process goals. A cause-focused culture is inherently more resilient because you can...
Sabbatical Revealed: Imposter Syndrome Was Driving My Business
For the last two years, I've been in survival mode. I just didn't call it that. Serve the clients. Pay the bills. Stay productive. Check the boxes. + I wasn't connecting to why I started this business. + I wasn't moving my own...
Global Yield Spike Persists After Consolidation, No Single Cause
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
7.6% S&P Dip Is Typical, Not Alarming
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
Embargo Iranian Oil, Not Seize Kharg, to Open Strait
Headlines that the US is thinking about taking Kharg island are pushing up Brent (lhs) and causing stocks to tank (rhs). Taking Kharg doesn't reopen the Strait and could turn into a fiasco. Better to embargo Iranian oil and force...
S&P Drops 5.4% YTD, Losses Concentrated in Two Weeks
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Cursor's Opaque Pricing and Silent Product Changes Betray Trust
Cursor keeps showing poor judgment with comms - behaving not like a $10B+ company, but like an early-stage startup Hikes prices for many enterprise customers without notice, or comms or transparency Big bang Composer 2.0 release w/o sharing that it's based on...
Gas Prices Outpace 2022; Long‑term Real Rates Rise
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Markets Flip to Rate Hikes as US Inflation Spikes
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
Extreme Debt Limits Growth: Only One Indicator Can Rise
When government and private debt are this extreme, only one of these lines can rise. …... not the red one. https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/mOHRjorVpT
Iran War Drives Market
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Three Key Focus Areas for Connected‑Customer Marketing
3 Areas Marketers Must Focus on in the Age of the Connected Customer - CX Journey™ https://t.co/M4blBGEz8l #marketing #customerexperience https://t.co/HHmro9azp7
Lilly’s Biz Dev Handles 10 Weekly Deals, Public Offers Stalled
Some interesting comments from Jacob Van Naarden, $LLY head of business development, at STAT's Breakthrough Summit East event yesterday: On deal volume: Jake, himself, is seeing approx 10 deals per week, ie deals that are important enough, or diligenced enough,...
LP Secondaries Plunge Below Par as GP Continuations Surge
7% of LP-led secondaries in 2H’25 sold at par. Over a quarter sold < 80 cents. Meanwhile GP-led CVs are booming. Different structure, same problem The traditional exit isn’t there at the price the GP underwrote.
Choose a Career You'd Play for Free
I keep coming back to what Eric said about his job in private equity & running his fund. “I would do this job for free. I love it so much. I really enjoy the intellectual challenge of solving the problems that...
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Objection Handling: Validate, Empathize, Solve, Confirm
Founders: The best objection handling formula: 1. Help me understand..." 2. "What I'm hearing is..." 3. "Other customers had this concern..." 4. "Here's how we addressed it..." 5. "Does that help resolve..." Validate → Empathize → Solve → Confirm"
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Falling Oil Demand May Trigger Higher Future Prices
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
SPX Faces Crucial Demand Zone Amid Rapid Macro Shift
US500 ( SPX ) At a crucial daily demand area. We have not seen these levels since late 2025. - Stagflation environment - Elevated OIL - From rate cuts to rate hikes - AI valuation concerns The whole macro narrative has changed within days. I...
Inside the CDC Director Search: Leadership Insights
If you care about the future of the CDC or public health, you need to read this piece and watch this video on how leadership is thinking about the search for a new director. Definitely watch the 10 minute video in...
Discomfort Means You're Building, Not Following Consensus
If you're a startup founder right now and competitors are raising more money, getting more headlines, and investors are questioning your strategy... Good. That means you're doing the job right. Bill Walsh has this quote. "How do you know if...
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
CDC Director Vacancy Persists; HHS Races to Fill Role
If you've been following the situation at #CDC — specifically the agency's lack of a director for most of the past 15 months — you'll want to listen to Chris Klomp, chief counsellor to HHS, discuss the administration's search for...
Trump's Iran War Costs Outpace Tariff Revenue
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
Track Joy and Frustration Daily to Boost Founder Insight
Founders: For 1 week, keep a notebook by your desk with two columns: -things I love -things I don't like When you feel really happy/excited about something, jot it in the first column. When you feel dread or frustration, second column. Regardless of...
TNX Breaks Triangle, Bullish Spike Ahead
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
New Startups Will Offset Graduate Unemployment Surge
All these “30% unemployment for new grads” predictions make a critical false assumption—they assume the number & composition of employers remains static. We’re going to see an explosion of new ventures, some of which will turn into new employers. My...
20 Hours of Failure Beats Endless Speculation
It’s incredibly valuable to spend 20 hours really trying something, only to discover it doesn’t work. You would have spent far longer even just thinking about that wrong thing, to say nothing of the opportunity cost of not working on the...
Economic Pathways Already Narrow Before War, Shortages
For anyone following the GPT policy prescriptions I updated the macro with war, supply shortages and 200B in new spend. Nothing surprising here but I'd note that the pathways were already narrow 3+ months ago. https://t.co/bSw5ZWEnsD