Powell’s Frustration Signals Moderately Hawkish Stance Amid Stubborn Inflation
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the Iran war.
Tariff‑induced Inflation Likely Not Just a Temporary Shock
There's not really any reason why we should think that tariff driven inflation shocks need to be seen to be proven they are temporary.
Overemphasizing Supply Shocks Fuels Policymaker Fear
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
Powell Predicts Inflation Progress, Anticipates 2024 Rate Cut
"The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation...we should be seeing that" --Powell, on why there's a rate cut projected for this year
Powell: Five Years Off‑Target Guides Oil Surge Tolerance
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
Navigating Complex Regulated Training Growth in Foodservice
NEW: How do you grow a #training #business in a regulated industry? (Hint: It's not easy.) Learn how one CEO navigates complexity + change in the #foodservice world, as I talk with Andrew Tyndall of @ResponsiblTrain, on the Talented Learning Show▶️https://t.co/W1XrgoamHc #lms...
Services Inflation Accelerates Across Broad Range of Categories
Don't know why he said this, services inflation is also accelerating across a broad range of categories
Powell Skips Service‑sector Disinflation Comment From January
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
Fed Says Supply Shock Shouldn't Trigger Rate Hikes
The Fed disagree with markets on this (and I largely agree). A supply shock -- especially one that doesn't really move core inflation -- should not automatically lead to higher rates. https://t.co/V0LS0P6sGE
Trump’s Economic Metrics Plummet, TSLombard Shows
According to TSLombard, Trump’s numbers are horrible on just about everything, but on the economy it is looking really bad. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/Ro8tuPfMZk
AI Bots Free Doctors for Patients, Not Just Tech
Dr. Selene Castrejon doesn’t run a tech company. She runs a medical practice. Every hour she spends on admin is an hour not spent with patients or growing her business. Inside the AI Business Lab® Mastermind, she built trained AI bots...
GenAI Startups Crash by Ignoring Token Cost Math
Most GenAI startups are scaling into bankruptcy and don't even know it. Not because of bad product. Not bad team. Not bad market. Because they never ran the token math. Here's how a single model choice can cost you $1M/month: ↓
Markets Rally as Fed Turns Less Hawkish than Expected
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
AI Permission Fatigue Creates Hidden Security Risks for CIOs
Devs are getting numb to AI permission prompts the same way everyone ignores Terms of Service. Those "approve" clicks can open doors to security, data privacy, and compliance risks CIOs will own. #CIO #AI https://t.co/p18hdtdbZn
Fed's Projections Remain Low, Ignoring CPI and P
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
2026 Dot Rise Missed; Haw
Those predicting the 2026 dot would rise to no cuts just didn't do the math. What did happen is the 3 Most hawkish reduced from a protest hike to a pause (less hawkish) 3 middle doves got modestly more hawkish And Miran the...
AI Valuations Likely Overinflated, Reset Imminent
VC Bill Gurley sees a reset coming in AI. His point is simple. When a real wave hits, a lot of money is made quickly, and that’s usually when excess builds up. The question isn’t whether AI is real. It’s whether valuations...
FOMC Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026‑2028
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Leaders, Not Gemba Walks, Determine Success
Gemba Walks Don’t Fail. Leaders Do. https://t.co/nqZ1wbhGKm Executed correctly, #Gemba walks are one of the most powerful tools #leaders have to understand reality, surface friction, drive meaningful change. When executed poorly, they become expensive theater. #employeeexperience https://t.co/Gkk0VGdoBe
Fed Sees Optimism: Growth up, Jobs Down, Inflation Easing
Fed SEP shows a lot of optimism with GDP growth picking up, the unemployment rate coming down and inflation easing.
Core PCE Above Target, Fed Still Plans Rate Cut
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
Fed Sees Modest Iran‑driven Inflation, Limited Cuts Ahead
Take a look at the Fed's new projections: 1 rate cut in 2026 1 rate cut in 2027 Higher inflation forecast **Slightly higher GDP forecast** --> this signals they are NOT projecting "stagflation" Unemployment rate staying around the current level (4.4%) Bottom line: Fed currently signaling...
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Excelling at Your Job Can Stall Career Advancement
The best salesperson I ever hired never got promoted, and it’s because he was too good at his job. But leadership didn’t want to lose him where he was. Skills get you noticed, but strategy gets you out of the role you’re...
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
Talent Engineering Is the AI Speed Bottleneck
A good heuristic for whether your company is moving fast enough for AI: Append "engineering" to every function. Then rate it. GTM → GTM Engineering ✅ | Product → Product Engineering ✅ | Talent → Talent Engineering ❌ Talent is where it breaks....
Bootstrapped Founders Can Attract VC Love Beyond Capital
When my friend raised $6M and I told him I was sad to lose another bootstrapper to the VC dark side, he said something that totally dumfounded me. Him: “We're building a generational company and not planning on raising any...
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
Producer Prices Surge, Undermining Fed’s Rate‑Cut Gains
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
Define Clear KPIs to Replace Gut‑Feeling Management
“Davie, something feels off but I don’t know what to do about it or where it is coming from…” I get told this all the time by founders who can’t pinpoint a specific issue in their business but they still feel...
San Francisco: Unmatched Era for Builders Today
In all of human history, there’s never been a better place or time to be a builder than San Francisco right now.
Job Gains Skewed to Healthcare and Education, Masking Contraction
Nearly all net job gains are in healthcare and education. Strip those out and the labor market is contracting. The headline number is a mirage. https://t.co/OY4R3G58U5
FOMC Likely Holds Rates, Eyes Updated SEP Forecasts
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
Perfect Reviews Don't Guarantee Promotions, Corporate Lies Exposed
The biggest lie corporate tells you about "Promotions". You are told to wait for the year-end self-assessment. You think a perfect review form guarantees a step up. THE BLACK BOX REALITY:
Powell’s Inflation Focus May Push Oil Lower, Buy Near $88
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
SilverVarden‑Contango Merger Approved, JV Details Upcoming Changes
No drama here. @SilverVarden's merger with Contango just got the green light from shareholders. What changes now? JV breaks it down: https://t.co/Pn3csAb89P
Stagflation Traps Fed, Gold Becomes Safe Haven
We are in a stagflation environment and we are getting more deep into it. The FED is trapped already. If they hold for too long or consider hiking to control inflation —> they will make the already weak labor market even more...
US Indifference Threatens Europe’s Strait Reopening
What if the United States doesn’t care about reopening the strait for Europe? My latest gCaptain Op-Ed 👇
10% Oil Supply Cut Could Spike Prices $150
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...
Your Resume Doesn't Matter—Product Wins in Startups
Someone asked if it's a good idea to start a startup when you have nothing notable on your resume. Absolutely. All that matters in a startup is whether users like the product, and users don't care (either way) what's on...
Announcing BASED Act: Push for Fair Open Markets
Now announcing the BASED Act at YC with State Senator Scott Wiener We need open platforms and open markets. We need markets that are fair for all founders. We are not asking for a leg up. We are asking for a...
Master 1x1 Meetings: Turn Waste Into Impact
Are 1x1 meetings still relevant? Yes. 1 on 1 meetings are one of the most important tools you have as a manager. But most people get them dead wrong. Wasting so much time and money... With a calendar full of useless...
2‑Year Yield Above Fed Funds Signals No Rate Cuts
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
New Disney CEO D'Amaro Declares Company Operating From Strength
Disney's Josh D'Amaro era begins following Bob Iger handoff. D'Amaro stresses to investors that, unlike some media co. rivals, Disney is "operating from a place of strength." w/ @smasunaga @latimes https://t.co/32Tp2humwh
AI Outbound Fails without Clean, Accurate Data
Last week I got an outreach email congratulating me on our Series D. Ahrefs has never raised a single dollar. We're bootstrapped. So someone's AI agent pulled the wrong data, mashed it together, and confidently sent me a "personalized" message that was...
AI Flattening Organizations Threatens Traditional Middle Management
What happens to middle management when AI flattens your organization? https://t.co/mDJARBQNMZ #AI #management #business #technology #leadership
Investors Bear Unpaid Risk—Sharpe’s Theory Still Holds
Most investors take risks they're not getting paid for. William Sharpe proved it in 1964.. and won a Nobel Prize for it. Our latest video for @ifadotcom explains why his paper still matters. #Finance #Investing #Stocks https://t.co/xx3iYAL8Zr
Turn Customers Into Creators, Cut Ads, Grow 50%
Chubbies grew 50% year-over-year by turning 1.5M customers into content creators. Free UGC from their 'Chubster Nation' replaced paid ads. Meanwhile you're spending on ads with no community behind your brand. That's the gap.
Israel's Strike Risks Iran Retaliation, Global Energy Fallout
Israel's reckless escalation in attacking Iran's South Pars gas facilities - hitting onshore processing facilities for Phases 3-6, gives Iran plausible excuse (if it needed it) to hit back against regional energy facilities Neutrals & world energy consumers will suffer https://t.co/Kx7MytxmEn