Middle East Crude Exports Plunge 25‑67%
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
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Salesforce Launches AI KPI Metric: The Agentic Work Unit
1/ A fascinating advance just happened in agentic work: We finally have the beginnings of real AI KPIs. @Salesforce just introduced the “Agentic Work Unit” (AWU). My take: This is bigger than it looks at first. 🤖📊 https://t.co/GHA4pW4k77
Trump Tariffs Might Boost Canada by Expanding Global Trade
Could Trump Tariffs Work to Canada's Advantage? The calculation: Maintain trade w/USA more or less as is, but add a great deal more trade with other countries. Econ prof Joe Steinberg, @UofT, unravels Trump's trade mess. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/nOR2AvDzqGc
Supply‑Shock Focus Increases Inflation Anxiety, Drives Hawk Turns
If you think demand played a large roll in the pandemic inflation, you are a lot less worried today. If you think it was mostly supply shocks, well you are more worried about supply shocks being inflationary. This explains some...
Trump Blames Fed While His Policies Fuel Market Decline
President Trump claiming the stock market is doing down because of Fed Chair Powell. The stock market has declined because of the conflict in the Middle East, higher oil price and risk of rising inflation. So, the President himself is responsible...
Outdated February Inflation Data Misrepresents Current Price Trends
Using an inflation print from February before the Iran war even began to say that there's been no inflation >
Notion Founder Unveils Expanded Vision Amid AI Surge
ICYMI, last week’s No Priors: Notion founder @simonlast on the company’s expanded vision, given rapidly growing ai capabilities
Liquidity, Not Credit, Drives Crises; Public BDCs Undervalued
If you read one thing on private credit today, make it Sixth Street's investor letter. The highlights: “Crises don’t happen because of credit issues, they happen because of liquidity issues. "If you believe in efficient markets, public BDCs trading at significant discounts...
Shortening QA to Cover Design Delays Backfires
Reducing the QA phase to one day to make up for delays in the design phase is a massive trap.
OpenAI's $110 B Funding
I feel like we are underplaying the fact that OpenAI raised $110 billion in a single funding round
Disney's Data Monolith Split Tests New CEO's Resolve
Bob Iger leaves The Walt Disney Company $DIS with a giant database—or “monolith”, like the "Mad Men" episode from Season 7—at the center of its business. The newly announced reorg splits that database in two—one for streaming, one for theme parks. Nobody...
FOMC Tweaks Dwarfed by Middle East Turmoil
The FOMC's forecast revisions were tiny compared to the images we're seeing from the Middle East.
5 Agentic AI Ventures Earning $10K/Month on $100
From $0 to $10k/Month: Top 5 AI Businesses To Start In 2026 WATCH HERE 👉 https://t.co/93U2EmmCZm The 2026 AI Gold Rush is here, but most people are doing it wrong. Generic chatbots are dead. In this video, I break down the...
US May Have Sparked War to Deter China’s Taiwan Ambitions
For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait...
China's Oil Route Closure Threatens Growth, Hits FXI
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
Powell's Hawkish Tone Signals No Rate Cuts Yet
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
Power Makes People Impulsive, Risk‑Blind, Perspective‑Deficient
"Subjects under the influence of power, he found in studies spanning two decades, acted as if they had suffered a traumatic brain injury - becoming more impulsive, less risk-aware, and crucially, less adept at seeing things from other people's point...
Powell: No Cuts Now, One in 2026, Not Stagflation
Summary of Fed Chair Powell today: 1) He'll stay as Chair until a new chair is confirmed by Senate 2) He'll stay at Fed until criminal investigation is "truly over" 3) No rate cut today. Only 1 cut likely for 2026 4) No one...
Markets Dip; Fed Intervention Likely Needed Soon
Markets didn't like that. Going to need to trot out some fed representative and clean it up soon is my guess.
Powell Sees AI as Marginally Inflationary Now
Appreciate that Powell thinks that AI is inflationary on the margin as of now (because of capex etc)
China’s Surplus Soars, Europe Squeezed by Energy and Competition
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
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Missing Social Media Messages Can Kill Your Brand
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Powell Resists Trump, Keeps Rates Amid Oil Crisis
Fed powell standing up to trump by refusing to cut rates during this oil crises.
Powell Refuses to Call Tariff Inflation Impact Certain
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs
Powell Delivers One of Central Banking’s Finest Press Conferences
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
Fed Could Take Cues From RBA’s Recent Pivot
Would be neat if someone asks about whether the Fed has anything to learn from the RBA's recent pivot
Avoid Risky AI Search Tactics; They Damage SEO
One of the worst things you can do for AI search visibility? Destroying your SEO performance with shiny new AI search tactics that are ultimately dangerous for SEO - and by extension - AI search. In my latest Substack article, I wrote...
AI Needs SaaS Guardrails for Enterprise Governance
Everyone talks about AI's "magic," but no one talks about Governance. 🏛️ Enterprise apps require layers of compliance that AI isn't ready to handle solo. SaaS isn't dying; it’s providing the guardrails AI desperately needs. Read the AVOA analysis: https://t.co/tqCcpQvgpK #CIO #Cloud...
One‑off Shocks Keep Inflation Above 2% Target
The problem with dismissing all the shocks as "one-time things" is that they all have the same directional impact on inflation and underlying inflation was already running around 3%, which means that in practice you will never hit a 2%...
Powell's Comments Lower Odds of His Gubernatorial Exit
Odds of Powell leaving as governor just took a meaningful leg down after his comments: https://t.co/BAkNISx8fo
Wage Growth Slows, Services Inflation Remains Stubborn
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
Powell to Stay on Board Until Investigation Concludes
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Powell’s Tepid Stance on Energy Prices Delays Rate Cuts
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
Powell Vows to Remain Fed Chair if Warsh Unconfirmed
Fed Chair Powell confirms he would stay on as Fed chair pro tem if Kevin Warsh isn't confirmed by the time Powell's term as chair ends. Also adds: "I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is...
Powell Stumped by Rising Services Inflation Amid Soft Job Market
Powell did not have a good answer to the question of why non-housing services inflation has been moving the wrong way if the job market is actually "not inflationary"
Powell Admits Uncertainty on Oil Shock’s Economic Impact
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
Three Weeks of Strait Closure Sparks Ongoing Chaos
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Hits 206 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.31% Same day last year: 6.78% 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.25% Spread today: 206 bps
Powell Shifts From Labor Market Weakness to Downside Risk
Interesting catch where Powell corrects himself from saying "weakness in the labor market" (objectively wrong) to "downside risk in the labor market" (maybe wrong but at least defensible)
When Leaders Feel Understood, Coaching Works
Feedback from one of my coaching clients: “No, seriously. You do get it.” One of the best pieces of feedback I never get tired of hearing. It’s hard to work with a coach, especially at the leadership level, if you don’t...
Fed Holds Rates, Warns No Cut Without Inflation Progress
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Fed Chief Warns Inflation Expectations Could Unanchor Amid Shocks
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Unilever, Kraft Heinz Eye Condiment Merger,
Vertical integration of fry sauce Unilever and Kraft Heinz held talks over food merger uniting ketchup and mayo - FT $KHC $UL
Fed Should Treat Inflation Shocks Like Oil Companies
Powell says US oil companies won't raise production unless they believe oil price shocks will be persistent and they don't believe this. Why can't the Fed say the same?
Powell Says Now Is Time to Abandon SEP
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
Fed Holds Steady, Awaits Middle East Clarity
The Fed's stance appears to have changed very little. A simple interpretation: The Fed wants to wait and see what's happening in the Middle East. There's no point taking a strong view until reality becomes clearer. (Powell just described FOMC members...
IRR Overstates Private Equity Returns, Shows 20% ≈ 12%
The most important concept for allocators to understand in private equity is that IRRs are numbers used in marketing and not representative of investor retuns In the below example, a 20% "IRR" is actually equal to an 11.9% annualized return (and...
Powell Hints at Skipping SEP, New Chair Needed
Powell: if we ever were to skip an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), this would be a good one. We just don't know. Um, the Fed does have the power to skip the SEP. But I gather it takes a new...