Live Your Values at Work, Not Just Define Them
The work isn’t crafting values; it’s living them. Values show up in calendars, promotions, and confrontations.
Choose One Platform: Which Drives Your Business Growth?
Serious question for business owners: If every social media platform disappeared tomorrow except one… Which one would you keep to grow your business and why?
Even Pay‑to‑Pitch Events Can Land Billionaire Investors
I met my first billionaire investor through a pay-to-pitch event in NYC. There are exceptions to every rule.
Iran Says Hormuz Open, only US/Israeli Ships Barred
"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday said the Strait of Hormuz is open and that the strategic route is only closed to the US and Israeli vessels" Are ships and tankers moving? If not, then where is the problem? Look...
AI May Shift Companies Back to Building Software In‑House
Thinking about the build vs buy equation in the age of AI. If software becomes dramatically easier to build, companies may start building more internally again. Anyone seeing this happen?
IEA Taps One-Third of Reserves, Biggest Release Since 1973
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Tariffs Shift US‑China Trade Balance, Not Global Flow
A case study in how tariffs can change the bilateral trade balance but not the global trade balance -- the US is now importing a ton of computers, but essentially zero of those are registering in customs as Chinese made 1/...
Oil Spike and Strait Closure Cripple Emerging Markets
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
Spot Hidden Prospects by Reading Job, Tech, Funding Signals
Founders: The best prospects are often hiding in plain sight: - Job postings = hiring pain - Tech stack = infrastructure - Client lists = industry focus - Funding = budget signals Learn to read these signals.
Hormuz Threat Lulls: No New Attacks, Interference Persists
🚨Mar 14 Hormuz Update🚨 1️⃣Confirmed attacks: 20 2️⃣Attacks last 24 hrs:0 3️⃣Passage last 24 hrs: 2 4️⃣Average passage: 138 5️⃣Electronic interference: widespread https://t.co/nQ4ZTet45o
Only Those Lacking a Process Hate Proven Risk Management
Hating on a proven risk mgt process is generally for people who neither have one nor get paid to develop one
Iran War Drives up Global Prices, Hitting Canada
For those of us fortunate enough to be far away and out of the line of fire, the impacts of the war in Iran are economic. Why is the war making the price of so many things more expensive? #canada🇨🇦...
Recognizing Projected Helplessness in Leaders and Teams
Projected Helplessness: How It Presents in Leaders, Teams, and Organisational Systems @ABPsychologists https://t.co/0XrksxEgYC #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #FutureofHR
Energy Crisis From Iran War Discussed Tomorrow on CNN
Tune in tomorrow when I’ll be discussing today’s energy crisis created by the Iran war with @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN.
AI Lets Leaders Anticipate Future, Not Just Trust Intuition
Gretzky’s insight about skating to where the puck is going is not just a metaphor for leadership intuition-it is increasingly a description of how AI-enabled organizations operate. The difference today is that leaders no longer rely on intuition alone. https://t.co/d5hehUmOVS
Meta Plans Layoffs Affecting over 20% of Workforce
Meta Platforms $META is reportedly planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company
IREN Valued at 5
$IREN 2028 Estimates: - Revenue $4B - EBITDA $3.1B $16.6B market cap, means $IREN trades 5x 2028 EBITDA. What is a fair multiple for $IREN?
Organic Traffic Demands Years of Daily Content
Everyone wants to own a business built on organic traffic (rather than paid ads). The problem is, no one wants to write organic content every single day for 3 years.
Key Macro Trends Reviewed and Forecast for March
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview March 13, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/2iKkxzCJa9
Yardeni Warns War‑driven Correction, US Credit Cracks
YARDENI: “.. three days after the war began, we concluded it might last longer, leading to a 10%-15% correction, and warned that we could not rule out a bear market. “.. we've become concerned that a weakening US economy might exacerbate...
Don’t Chase Enterprise Just because some Teams Buy
So many startups erroneously think they should “go upmarket to the Enterprise” just because some teams at large companies bought their software. 50% of people work at big companies, and they’re already buying. Here’s more blunders to avoid: https://t.co/cE9pImYPyy
Recalculate ROAS: Tariffs Shift Break‑Even Targets
Your ROAS target is wrong. Tariffs keep changing, so you need to know your break-even math. A brand that needed 3.0x to break even might need 2.3x. That's the difference between cutting spend and scaling aggressively. Run this audit before making...
Series A Funds Performance, Not Just Promise
Series A is not seed. Seed investors fund promise. Series A investors fund performance. Running out of cash is not a plan. If growth stalls and costs rise, they walk away. Show numbers or change course.
Use a Simple Mental Model for the Oil Shock
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
AI VC Bets Risk Opposing Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini Visions
VC investments typically take 5-8 years to exit. That means almost every AI VC investment right now is essentially a bet against the vision Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini have laid out.
Iran’s Hormuz Standoff Exposes Global Power Game
Ugly game theoretics at play in Iran. Teheran has found its pain point in Hormuz, Russia is happy as it gets to sell its 'sanctioned oil', China is flapping like a kite in a hurricane, Europe has an incentive to...
Fear Stems From Market Declines, Not Saba’s Bid
I’m genuinely interested in everyone’s thoughts. IMHO, what’s stoking fear @AcaciaCap isn’t our bid but the massive declines in everything from OTF, TCPC, FSK, OXLC, BPRE, the tripling of outflows for Cliffwater and Blue Owl, the frauds, the rise in...
AI Funding Surges While Governance Lags Behind
$68.9 billion in AI infrastructure funding across 620 rounds in early 2026. Meanwhile, the biggest GDPR fine ever ($854M) just got thrown out of court. The money is flooding in faster than the rules can keep up. That is not a technology problem....
Trade on Macro Fundamentals, Not Noisy Economic Data
Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely. Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand Is the population growing Is the 6 month to a...
Hormuz Blockade Triggers Energy, Shipping, and Food Crises
🚨Strait of Hormuz Disruptions🚨 Implications of Global Trade and Development by @UNCTAD 1️⃣Energy Surge 2️⃣Soaring Shipping Crisis 3️⃣Insurance Spikes 4️⃣Fertilizer & Food Security 5️⃣Insurance Spikes & Higher Borrowing Costs https://t.co/SxnLDTDmwG
Berkshire Hathaway Resumes Buyback, Purchases $226M of Shares
Berkshire Hathaway bought back the equivalent of 309 $BRK.A shares (~$226 million worth), on March 4th, the day it resumed it stock buyback program for the first time since May 2024 - CNBC
US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Future Rewards the Unconventional Neurodivergent Mindset
$PLTR says the future belongs to the neurodivergent. It certainly belongs to those that are unwilling to conform. 💪🏻🚀
AI Marketing Can Add $250K–$500K Revenue
Quick math: If your average customer is worth $10,000 annually and AI-enhanced marketing helps you add 25 new customers this year—that’s $250,000 in new revenue. What if it’s 50 customers? The AI Business Lab® Mastermind members are building these systems right now....
Slack Survived when Its Game Didn't
Slack wasn’t supposed to be Slack. It started as an internal tool while building a video game. The game failed. The tool didn’t.
Fiat Currency Levels Dominate Markets; Gold Is Niche
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
Middle East War's Economic Fallout Explained
Catch me at 8:05am on the economic impact of the war in the Middle East #bbcwales #sundaysupplement Listen at: https://t.co/WBmMlC57rn https://t.co/TZIU8SNTCQ
FTPL Slope < 1 Reflects Expected Deficit‑repayment Dynamics
Excellent. In FTPL, one can interpret the slope as "what fraction of the deficits did people think would be repaid by later surpluses or lower interest costs?" and the error term as variation from a common value. A slope <...
Inside Perspective Explains Uber’s Switch From HipChat
This is SO SUCH A GOOD example on why some things that do not make sense from the outside, make perfect sense from the inside. In 2016, Uber moved to its own chat system, off of HipChat (that had a disastrous...
Double Standards: Free Trade for Us, Tariffs for Rivals
Free trade for my inputs; tariffs for my competitors. A tale as old as time.
Tech Beats Analysts: Infrastructure Ready to Disrupt Finance
Anthropic drops financial analysis capabilities Analyst job postings don't change Yet. The lag between technological capability and institutional adaptation is where fortunes hide Someone's building the infrastructure to replace these roles right now
Deep Customer Success Unlocks Upsell Even After Layoffs
I still think about one of the smallest deals we won, that I was FIRED UP about. I got credit for $5.8K. One of my most proud wins of 2024. 90 days prior, we learned the sad news an active customer...
Entrepreneurs Often Postpone Painful Layoffs Until Confidence Builds
Chatting with an entrepreneur friend yesterday. Three weeks into his Open Claw experimentation. He’s preparing to cut the first 3 of his 15 person team in the next few weeks. Hasn’t actually pulled the trigger yet, will be fascinating to...
Tech Enables Independents to Match Franchise Consistency
"I also believe that, with the power of the internet and computers, it is possible to deliver the same experience, consistency, and sophisticated decor in an independent business [as in a franchise]" ¬#Franchise Warnings (2015) https://t.co/l2EObkfURN https://t.co/p3i2cgIxKK
Homogenized Quant Trading Turns Markets Into Volatility Risk
The public market is just one giant volatility trade now-based off of quant factors. This is what happens when you hollow out active management. You could make the argument it’s way more efficient now, but I think we’ll find out that...
High ROAS May Mask Lack of New Customers
Strong ROAS in Ads Manager doesn't mean you're acquiring new customers. You might just be really good at selling to repeat customers. We killed a campaign last month because of exactly this. The campaign looked clean. • ROAS was holding • Conversions were consistent •...
New Investors Linked to Trump Back Major Media Deal
"Some of the new investors have ties to the administration: --> Larry Ellison, a co-founder of Oracle, is friendly with Mr. Trump and is backing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by his son, David Ellison, the chief executive of Paramount -->...
Scaling People Beats Scaling Tech—Hire First
As difficult as it is to scale infrastructure… …the hardest thing is to scale people. Yet technical founders spend most of their time on tech, because it’s interesting. Exactly wrong. That’s what you’re good at hiring for. Go solve the more important, harder problem.
Analysts' Oil Forecasts Serve Producers, Not Truth
One of the things I learned after Russia invaded Ukraine is that many commodity analysts are in bed with oil producers and ship owners. They forecast terrible oil price spikes and financial Armageddon to keep the West from being tough....
Resume Positioning Beats Experience in Today's Hiring Market
Qualified candidates are getting overlooked in this hiring market more often because of resume positioning, not lack of experience. Here are the resume patterns that are helping our clients get noticed, land interviews, and secure new roles: https://www.karpiakconsulting.com/post/resume-clarity-in-this-hiring-market