Fed Must Cut Rates as Oil‑Driven Recession Looms
Now powell and Fed will be forced to do an emergency rate cut and be late as high oil prices start slowing down economy into recession.
Trim Your Resume: Highlight Recent Roles, Not Entire Career
If your resume is creeping past 2 pages because you’ve been working 15–20+ years, this is usually why. It’s really easy for a resume to turn into… everything you’ve ever done. Every role, every bullet, going back 20+ years. Makes sense since there’s...
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Super Connector Steve Ramona Helps Reach Top 1%
Jim Cathcart: Rise to the Top 1 Percent https://t.co/6tRgiAR8sm via @YouTube Steve Ramona is a super connector, it was a joy to be on his podcast.
Nexstar's Flawed Ratings Predict Mass Journalist Layoffs
Two ratings on Nexstar are junk, so this deal will require mass layoffs of local journalists.
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Single‑mandate Central Banks Are Trapped, Forced to Hike
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Echo Buyers' Words to Build Trust and Close Deals
Become a master wordsmith. Words trigger mental pictures. Mental pictures trigger emotions. Emotions trigger actions. Actions close deals. Stop paraphrasing your buyer. Stop putting your own twist on things. Use THEIR exact words back to them. That's how trust is built.
Biotech Giant Earendil Labs Secures $787M Funding
Giant biotech round that hit right after I sent Pro Rata: Earendil Labs raises $787M https://t.co/NWt2bBA9Lr
Markets Delay US‑Iran Ceasefire as Recession Fears Grow
The prediction markets are pushing out expectations of a US-Iran #ceasefire further and further... It's not unrelated that expectations of a #recession are creeping up at the same time... https://t.co/oFshabOLCJ
US Debt Swells $2.8T Since July, Near $40T
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion... https://t.co/rtXuDORPwa
Zero Break-Even Employment Rate Fails, Waller Warns
You don’t SAY. This zero bound fails miserably too On @CNBC Waller said research suggesting that the break-even rate for employment is ~zero is another challenge for assessing labor-market strength “My brain understands the math, but I can’t get through my gut...
Even Perfect Schedules Can't Stop Endless Scrolling
Realest shit I ever heard: "People pray for more time. Then God gives them a clear calendar, a task list, a quiet morning, no meetings... but they still scroll for 3 hours." Everything's lined up and you still waste time. Let that sink...
Icon Grids Make Headcount Instantly Understandable
This headcount format gets the fastest "got it" from every board I've presented to. Here's the thing about tables. They work. But nobody remembers them five minutes later. You say "Sales has 72 people." Board nods. Next slide. Already forgotten. But when you...
Start Agentic AI at ITOps‑SecOps Handoff Gaps
RT CIOs and CISOs keep asking, "Where do we start with agentic AI in operations?" My answer: target the seams between ITOps and SecOp - handoffs, ticket ping-pong, and tribal workflows. #CIO #CISO #AI @Star_CIO https://t.co/e3w3lXkvfc
Ireland Outperforms Europe on Iran War Risk Exposure
Irish economy in better position than European peers on Iran war risk, Makhlouf says https://t.co/lomrlc1AAE via @livfletcher_ https://t.co/T1sVPBtbzJ
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
15 AI Governance Advisories to Shape Your Roadmap
Announcing StarCIO's AI Strategy & Governance Workshops - 15 Advisories to select from & evolve your roadmap. We guide the leadership team on a pragmatic AI vision, define clear guardrails, and establish a responsible path to value. https://t.co/NJUcJvxodM #AI #CIO...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Kharg Island Tension Could Trigger Market Shock Soon
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
Boston Beer Matches Ten‑year Buybacks in Three Years
Boston Beer repurchased ~$530 million of its common stock over the past three years, which is roughly comparable to what the company spend on repurchases over the previous decade (FY13 - FY22) https://t.co/pROlFqwX7E
Customers Want Simple, Not Incomplete—MVP Misconception
In new products, customers forgive simplicity but not incompleteness. They might even prefer simplicity, but they don’t prefer barely-functioning software. That’s why "MVP" is the wrong idea. Agree? https://t.co/qNyxPrTDV9
Real Sabbaticals Demand Tough Financial and Client Decisions
How to actually prep for a real break from your business (3 things I did to make it happen): + Something financial has to change. Whether that's letting go of a team member, ending a service, or accepting reduced income for...
AI Model Ads Look Fake, Killing Conversions
Everyone is doing AI image ads wrong. Especially model shots. You can spot them instantly. Plastic skin. Dead eyes. Weird hands. Fake lighting. Brands think they’re saving money… But they’re actually killing conversions. Meanwhile there’s a hidden method that makes AI models look 100% real. Ultra-realistic. Natural...
Building a User‑Friendly Tool Discovery Platform: Vision & Challenges
Learn about the vision, initial steps, and challenges faced in creating a user-friendly platform to easily find the right tools. Stream now: 🔗 https://t.co/bNZWCzgLQ6 📽️ https://t.co/4w5Ib6cmK1 🔗https://t.co/DmYp21N5Kv #MachineShop #Motool #MachinistTools #ProductivityTools https://t.co/Rg7LoCf7Ko
AI Dialogue Shifts to Governance, Identity, Security
Great roundtable this week in San Jose with NVIDIA and Palo Alto. What stood out most: the AI conversation has leveled up. Less hype, more real discussion about things like governance, identity for AI agents, and securing non deterministic systems.
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Integrate Broker and Proprietary Search with Unified Tools
Key tools to run a broker & proprietary search simultaneously. The problem is not realizing this is a business system. https://t.co/TkOPkMEB8f #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/DwMbyj3qjL
FCC and DOJ Approved Nexstar‑TEGNA Deal Illegally
The fix was in at the @FCC & @JusticeATR to approve the massive Nexstar-TEGNA deal. People need to know how abnormal and illegal the process was. I talk about it here: https://t.co/rmcV0J9w0N
War’s Short‑term Impact, yet Markets Thrive Long‑term
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
My Missed Multifamily Investment Dwarfs Employee Errors
Any time one of our employees makes a mistake, I remind myself: No mistake any of them could make would come *close* to costing us as much money as my decision not to buy multifamily in secondary Western markets 2015-2018.
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Trump Should Keep Powell Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
Warsh will be out hawkes this year; Trump might as well keep Powell as Fed chair until the inflation story changes. No point in criticizing your guy for rate cuts now.
Ask Key Questions First to Personalize Your Demo
"Hey Brian, can you just show us the demo?" Old me: Rollover, say yes, and hop in so I would be 'buyer-centric.' But I'd also know I lost all control of the call and the demo would fall flat, without knowing what...
G10 Hawkish Policies Weigh on Dollar Strength
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Hormuz Tensions Could Spike Oil Past $200, Triggering Long‑term Chaos
Reupping this as the continued Hormuz chaos seems increasingly likely to drive oil above $200/barrel, followed by years of hydrocarbon market chaos
Raising Rates over a Closed Oil Strait Is Absurd
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
Prorating Vs. Gating: Different Tender Offer Mechanics
Prorating investors in a standard 5% quarterly tender offer is not the same as gating or halting redemptions. https://t.co/p9tLyxgsOi
Quick Cleanup Removes Manual Action, Visibility Restored
Example of a manual action being removed for this publisher. Looks like they cleaned up the problem relatively quickly and had the manual action removed. Now showing back up across Google surfaces. Of course, they probably will not return...
EBay's Depop Acquisition Targets Younger Shoppers
The @ebay acquisition of @depop from @etsy makes so much sense, especially because EBay has been trying to build its customer base and reach younger demographics. #ebay #depop #etsy #fashion #business
Euro Summit Highlights Growing Economic Uncertainty Amid Middle East Turmoil
Glad to join leaders at last night’s Euro Summit in Brussels. We discussed the current economic situation in light of events in the Middle East, which has made the outlook significantly more uncertain. https://t.co/bHxScsvXzq
Friday's Must-Read: Finance Turmoil, Political
10 Friday AM Reads -Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don't Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal -Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026 -Demand destruction has begun -Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In -Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove...
Nexstar‑T
D.C. Memo: @NXSTMediaGroup-@TEGNA Deal Sails Through @BrendanCarrFCC in a Speedy 121 Days; CEO Sook Makes a Few Minor Concessions But That’s It; Nexstar has two years to sell six TV stations but in the end, it might not...
Focus on What Never Changes, Not Every New Tool
Don’t ask: “How can I survive all this change?” Ask: “What *won’t* change?” Jeff Bezos built Amazon by asking that exact question. He didn’t obsess over competitors or waste time trying to predict the future. Instead, he built Amazon around things he knew customers...
US May Permit Iran Oil Sales to Boost Supply
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
CNY Posts Lowest USD Fix Since April 2023
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Oil Prices Soar Despite Limited Infrastructure Damage, Demand at Risk
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...