South Africa's Record Real Rates Prompt Slow, Steady Cuts
South African rates are restrictive. The real policy rate is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and they expect growth. They are suffocating the economy with high real rates. However, we can expect more rate cuts throughout the year, but they will be slow and steady. In the future, South Africa will no longer have a prime rate either. One policy rate will be quoted going forward, still to be announced.
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm
Earn Startup Attention, Don't Expect Platform Handouts
Nobody owes your startup attention. Not Twitter. Not Reddit. Not Product Hunt. Attention is earned, not launched. Where do you post your progress?
Politicized Asset Stewardship Spurs Lease Cancellations, REIT Shorts
Macro: politicized stewardship of public assets rising; Key: Interior canceled NLT lease; Risk: litigation & environmental hurdles delay projects; Trade: short park‑adjacent REITs. ⚖️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
Limited Context Forces New Work Practices for AI Agents
Eventually, as a result of the context limitations of AI agents, we’ll start to change and improve our work practices to aid in their success. One of the most interesting issues with AI agents is because of their inherently limited...
Pre‑PMF Funding Demands Clear Traction Over Resume
Big splashy pre-PMF rounds happen on big legible ideas and teams with social proof Don’t hate the player hate the game It doesn’t mean you can’t build a big co if you don’t have the right resume but it does mean you...
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
SF's VC Boom Faces Tax Hike and Lab Bans
SF is the ONLY VC hub with positive company formation growth (+24%) while every other city declines—but an 800% gross receipts tax hike and lab bans threaten to destroy what makes the city special. https://t.co/gVxAtL7zDC
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
AI Delivers Value Only When Embedded, Governed, Operational
AI value doesn't live in slideware or labs. It shows up when agents are embedded in day-to-day work, governed like core systems, and held to the same standards as any critical operation. #AgenticAI #EnterpriseAI https://t.co/VtuS5rQ0ZG
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
China and US Slowdown Drag Global EV Sales
Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January "Global EV registrations, a proxy for sales, fell by 3% year-on-year to almost 1.2 million units in January, according to the data, which includes battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They were down...
Trump's Tariff Push Backfires, Approval Slips Sharply
Trump's tariff blitz BACKFIRES. Approval ratings are tanking. 52% of Americans say Trump’s economic policies have made things worse. Now the White House is scrambling to put a positive spin on the US economy. https://t.co/a1JUyOz6LJ
AI Users Outpace Non‑Users; Human Judgment Remains Priceless
AI won’t replace people, but people who use AI will replace those who don’t. 👥 At the #CiscoAISummit, leaders discussed how 70% of code is now AI-generated, but human judgment remains "priceless." The CIO's job is now as much about culture...
No Bullish Catalyst for Oil in 2026, Repeat Likely
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
Evolving Energy Security Toolkit Amid Fragmented Order, EU‑US Distrust
Energy security is high on the @MunSecConf agenda. I’ve been discussing how the toolkit to deliver it must evolve—amid a fragmenting global order, the need to accelerate the clean transition, and a far deeper level of European distrust toward the...
Prioritize Responsible AI Releases over Speed
"Ship fast and break things" must not apply to AI agents with access to customer data or production workflows. My checklist explains how to balance speed with responsible releases. #AI #DevOps #CIO https://t.co/1tg10UmJNv
AI Founders & VCs Lack Corporate Experience, Hiring Suffers
you got ai founders who have never worked at a company before getting funding from VCs who have never worked in a company before the new hires are dog shit big problem to be on the lookout for
Top 10 SaaS Cloud Multiples at Market Close
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close
8-Step Checklist to Nail Any VC Interview
I just put together an 8-step VC interview prep checklist to help you nail any interview... Knowing where to start can be HARD. There are many resources online that will tell you different things. My simple checklist will help you get prepared...
A16z Hiring Leaders to Shape Tech Narrative
This is the part of my job at @a16z that most gets me up in the morning: building an incredible team. We’re hiring for a lot of roles at the moment: Chief of Staff: help me run all our initiatives at...
Investing in Teams to Tackle Food & Nutrition Crisis
Food and nutrition is one of humanities biggest problems right now IMO Would love to invest in more teams working on solving this
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
AI-Powered Stack Redefines Rapid SaaS Development
The new way to build SaaS products with AI coding and tools like Claude, Curson, Lovable, Codex, Bolt, Vercel, Supabase, and Google AI Studio: https://youtu.be/baKNNPmjHRw?si=x6GPDfKmPB7sIx20
Not Now Masks Indecision: Useful Pause or Avoidance?
When you say “not now” instead of “no”… …you are avoiding making a decision. That’s good, if waiting means you can make a better decision (e.g. more data, more options to pick from). That’s bad, if you’re just non-committal. Cross things off the list.
Early-Stage Startups Don’t Need Costly Big‑4 Audits
Startups ($25M ARR? Get bids from multiple firms. You do NOT need a Big 4 audit. It does not me you are a legit company before the Big 4 did the audit. No one cares. 2nd tier firm is fine 3...
NYT Overlooks Money Growth, the Real Inflation Driver
The NYT credits cooling inflation to tariffs, housing, airfare, energy, & labor markets. But ignores money. Money growth has averaged 4%/yr over 2025 — far below the 6.3%/yr Golden Growth Rate, consistent with hitting the US's 2%/yr inflation target. https://t.co/tk42l7TVVZ
Biggest Stocks Push S&P 500 Margin to Record 12.6%
"The exceptional profitability of the largest stocks boosted the aggregate S&P 500 profit margin to a new record high of 12.6% in 4Q" - Goldman https://t.co/5fnYCaoDhm
Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat
Visa total return the last decade or so basically all earnings growth; P/E unchanged while change in EPS estimates roughly equal TSR https://t.co/wYh3Mkz7Aq
Surround Yourself with Allies Who Push, Not Praise
Build relationships that make risk-taking more likely. Choose people who kick you in the pants over those who affirm your excuses. Trust allies who believe in your potential, fuel your courage, and challenge you to get off your butt.
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
Trump Tariffs Add $1,300 Hidden Tax per Household
According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s latest tariffs amount to a $1,300 hidden tax per household. US TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/w3pnoqPIdP
BOE's Pill: Rates Slightly Too Low, Should Stay
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
China's Massive Surplus Threatens IMF Balance
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
Ramp and Rippling Are Less Overlapping Than Assumed
Ramp and Rippling don't have as much overlap as people think. So says @rabois 👀 @eglyman @parkerconrad https://t.co/6Xh1bcpnjw
Rabois Predicts Trump May Block China's Nvidia Chip Access
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Rapid Growth Crushed Margins and Infrastructure
$2M to $9M ARR in one year. Sounds amazing but... Support went from 200 to 20K tickets/month Servers crashed for a full day Gross margin went from 90% to 20% They threw money at AWS because there was no other option. https://t.co/eT4oChv5G3
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Key Differences Between OFAC's New GL
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
Lenders Cut Ties on Deeply Underwater Properties
Valuations are dropping fast. If a deal isn’t performing, lenders try to save it to avoid losses. But when a property is too far underwater, there’s simply no reason to keep the original owner involved. #RealEstate #Finance #cashflowisking
Regulation Entrenches Incumbents, Stifling Innovation and Growth
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...