AUD/JPY Trades Above 111.00 After Paring Recent Losses
AUD/JPY rebounded to trade above the 111.00 level during Asian hours, offsetting earlier losses despite heightened safe‑haven demand from the Middle East crisis. The Australian dollar’s recovery was supported by a modest easing in domestic inflation and a dip in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to 51.0, its weakest reading in four months. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen gained strength as investors sought safety, reinforced by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s remarks that rates could rise gradually if economic forecasts are met. Geopolitical tensions, including Israeli strikes on Beirut and U.S. actions against Iran, added volatility to the pair.
BoJ’s Himino Says Policy Should Gradually Move Toward Neutral Stance with Moderate Rate Hikes
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino said the central bank’s policy remains somewhat accommodative but should gradually move toward a neutral stance through moderate rate hikes. He noted that the inflation gap is still slightly negative but expected to...
MUFG: Philippine Trade Costs to Fall After US Court Ruling
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
ECB’s Nagel Says Doubts on Dollar’s Haven Status Have Risen
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that confidence in the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven status is waning. He noted that recent market turbulence has led international investors to question the dollar’s reliability, contributing to its ongoing weakness. Nagel...
Thai Gold-Trading Curbs Take Effect as Authorities Rein in Baht
Thailand's central bank introduced strict retail gold‑trading limits effective March 1, 2026. Individuals can now trade up to 50 million baht per day on each online platform, aiming to dampen speculative buying that has lifted the baht. The cap excludes USD‑denominated...
Banking on Nonbanks
The IMF paper documents a rapid rise in non‑bank financial institution (NBFI) subsidiaries within banking groups, now accounting for about 32 % of syndicated loan origination in 2024. When macroprudential policies tighten bank‑level constraints, bank subsidiaries cut lending by roughly 1 %,...
A Technical Look at some of the Major Currency Pairs Heading Into the New Trading Week
InvestingLive analyst Greg Michalowski released a video breaking down the technical outlook for six major FX pairs—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD—as the new trading week and month begin. He identifies the prevailing bias, key support and resistance zones,...
Week Ahead: US Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty as NFP, Eurozone HICP Loom
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift...
GBP/USD Slips as US PPI Lifts US Dollar, Middle East Risks Rise
GBP/USD slipped about 0.10% to 1.3469 as US core PPI jumped 3.6% YoY, reinforcing expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. The stronger dollar was further supported by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which hurt risk‑on sentiment. In...
SBI Holdings Teams Up with Startale to Introduce Regulated Yen-Pegged Stablecoin
SBI Holdings has signed an MOU with blockchain firm Startale Group to create Japan’s first fully regulated yen‑pegged stablecoin. The token will be issued as a Type 3 Electronic Payment Instrument, backed by assets held in Shinsei Trust & Banking, and...
China: Policy Mix Guides 2026 Growth Path – UOB
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Growth Estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% Last
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now estimates first‑quarter 2026 real GDP growth at 3.0%, a slight dip from the 3.1% forecast three days earlier. The revision follows fresh data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...
Why the Concern over Capital Flows
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged,...
Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran Standoff Trumps US PPI, Setting S...
Gold surged past the $5,200 per ounce mark, targeting a seventh consecutive monthly gain as investors seek safety amid escalating US‑Iran tensions. The geopolitical flashpoint has revived haven demand, outweighing the muted impact of a weaker US Producer Price Index....
Sticky US PPI Sour Risk Mood; Sterling Hit by UK Political Blow
US producer‑price index jumped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, outpacing expectations and reigniting concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. The surprise lift pushed Dow futures down over 500 points and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield below the 4% threshold, suggesting markets...
EUR/JPY Pressured Lower by Yen Strength, Softer German Inflation
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile,...
Germany Annual CPI Inflation Declines to 1.9% in February Vs. 2% Expected
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
Number of Counterfeit Euro Banknotes Remains Low in 2025
ECB reported that 444,000 counterfeit euro banknotes were withdrawn in 2025, a 20% drop from the previous year and one of the lowest rates since the euro’s launch. The counterfeit rate fell to 14 per million genuine notes, with €20...
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey Results – January 2026
The ECB’s January 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey shows median inflation perception falling to 3.0% and 12‑month inflation expectations dropping to 2.6%, while three‑year expectations hold at 2.6% and five‑year expectations ease to 2.3%. Nominal income‑growth expectations rose to 1.2%, driven...
OANDA Ends Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against GAIN Capital
Forex platform OANDA Corporation has formally ended its long‑standing patent infringement lawsuit against GAIN Capital Holdings. The parties filed a stipulation in New Jersey District Court on February 26, 2026, dismissing all claims and counterclaims with prejudice and agreeing to...
Renaissance at Market Speed: UK Wholesale Finance in 2026
At the Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Trading conference, FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi outlined a sweeping reform agenda aimed at cementing the UK’s position as a global wholesale‑finance hub. He highlighted recent regulatory wins – from tighter market‑abuse enforcement...
From Tariffs to Trade Flows: Diversion Effects and China’s Exports to the EU
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
What’s Next for China’s Yuan Payment System? Adviser Banks on Close Trade Partners
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
What Will the Fed’s “Warsh Era” Bring?
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural...
Italian Regulator Blocks Access to Websites of Keyline FX, Solaxy Tech and Po Trade
Italy’s financial regulator CONSOB ordered the blocking of ten websites that were providing unauthorized investment services, including foreign‑exchange and cryptocurrency offerings. The sites targeted include Keyline FX, Solaxy Tech, Po Trade and related advertising domains, and CONSOB also asked Google to remove the...
Eurozone February Final Consumer Confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 Prelim
Eurozone consumer confidence held steady at a final -12.2 in February, matching the preliminary reading. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3, missing forecasts, while industrial confidence fell to -7.1 and services confidence dropped to 5.0, both below expectations. Employment expectations declined...
ECB President Lagarde: My Baseline Is that I Will Stay Until the End of My Term
ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters her baseline assumption is that she will remain in office until the end of her six‑year term. Analysts note her wording leaves room for an earlier exit, a scenario that has been floated in...
Northern Trust Adds Berenberg to Its Framework of Dynamic Currency Hedging Solutions
Northern Trust announced the addition of Berenberg’s AI‑driven foreign‑exchange models to its dynamic currency‑hedging framework. The partnership lets institutional clients embed third‑party, model‑based strategies and adjust hedge ratios in real time across the US, UK, Europe, Australia and Canada. By...
Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament that euro‑area inflation has fallen sharply, reaching 1.7% in January and hovering near the ECB’s 2% target. Despite the data, surveys show households still perceive price growth about 1.2 percentage points higher than official...
Great Liquidity Partnerships Are Built on Trust
Alex Mackinnon, CEO of Finalto Asia, argues that regulation has become a catalyst rather than a constraint, enabling the liquidity market to mature and gain trust. He highlights Finalto’s multi‑asset prime brokerage model, which spans equities, commodities, crypto, FX and...
NZD/USD Holds Gains Around 0.6000 as US Dollar Falters on Tariff Concerns
The New Zealand dollar extended its rally for a third straight session, hovering around the 0.6000 level against the US dollar during Asian trading. The move reflects pressure on the US dollar as President Trump defended tariffs and the IMF warned...
US Dollar Index Falls to Near 97.50 as White House Policy Doubts Linger
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to around 97.50 during Asian trading, marking a second straight session of decline amid White House policy doubts. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks defended and expanded Section 122 tariffs to 10 %, adding trade‑related...
Developments in Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets
The BIS Triennial Survey shows global foreign‑exchange turnover jumped to US$9.5 trillion per day in April 2025, a 27 % rise driven by heightened volatility, hedging and speculative activity. Spot and outright forwards led the surge, while currency‑option turnover more than doubled and...
Meta’s Digital Dollar Comeback Could Unlock a $1 Trillion Treasury Shift Washington Is Not Ready For
Meta is planning to introduce stablecoin‑based payments in the second half of 2026 by partnering with a third‑party provider, avoiding the need to issue its own token. The initiative leverages the 2025 GENIUS Act’s regulatory framework, positioning digital dollars as...
ECB Adopts Opinion on Appointment of Its Future Vice-President
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council issued an opinion supporting the EU Council’s proposed candidate, Boris Vujčić, for the next Vice‑President. Vujčić, currently Governor of the Croatian National Bank, will assume the role on 1 June 2026 for a non‑renewable eight‑year term,...
Payoneer Applies for Bank Charter
Payoneer has filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a U.S. national trust bank charter, to be branded as PAYO Digital Bank. The charter would let the firm issue, send and receive stablecoins, provide...
Bank of Japan Won’t Alter Its Policy Normalisation Path
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains...
FX Daily: Nvidia Earnings Could Be Big for FX
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
Has U.S. Inflation Started Turning Higher Again?
U.S. tariff rates surged to an average of 13% in 2025, yet headline inflation fell to 2.7% year‑over‑year before rebounding in December. Companies initially absorbed tariff costs, but recent PCE data shows they are now passing them onto consumers, pushing...
FX Option Expiries for 25 February 10am New York Cut
The February 25 10 a.m. New York FX option expiry lists strike levels and notional exposure across major currency pairs. EUR/USD shows the largest notional at the 1.1900 strike with €5.09 billion, while AUD/USD aggregates over AUD 8 billion across four strikes. Market makers must hedge these...
CME Group U.S. Treasury OI Sets New Record of 36.3M Contracts
CME Group reported a record 36,328,151 open interest contracts in U.S. Treasury futures and options on February 19, surpassing its previous high from November 2025. The milestone spans the entire yield curve, with new peaks in 2‑year, 5‑year, 10‑year, and...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session delivered two key data points: Germany’s preliminary Q4 GDP rose 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating expectations, and Eurozone CPI showed a 1.7% year‑on‑year headline increase with core inflation at 2.2%. Both releases are final figures that historically have limited...
Japan Govmt Nominates New BOJ Board Members as Rate-Hike Path Comes Into Focus
Japan’s government has nominated professor emeritus Toichiro Asada and law professor Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan’s nine‑member monetary policy board, pending parliamentary approval. The appointments arrive as the BOJ exits its ultra‑easy stimulus regime and lifts rates to...
What’s Next for Ukraine: Investment
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
A Tale of Two Financial Centres: Brexit Uncertainty and the Fragility of Cross-Border Capital Flows
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
The 0.7100 Hurdle: Key Factors Driving AUD/USD's Range-Bound Trade as CPI...
AUD/USD remains trapped in a tight 0.7040‑0.7070 range as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3.85% policy rate against looming Australian CPI data. The pair failed to break the 0.7100 resistance, keeping bullish momentum at bay despite a resilient...
Monetary Policy Committee Policy Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
Australia CPI Expected to Point to Sticky Inflation, Supporting Hawkish Stance
Australia’s January consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, a slight dip from December’s 3.8%. The forecast includes a Trimmed Mean CPI of 3.3% YoY, unchanged from the prior month, highlighting persistent core inflation. The Reserve Bank of...
Dollar Supported by a Weak Yen and Strength in US Consumer Confidence
The dollar index rose modestly as a two‑week low yen boosted USD/JPY and stronger US consumer confidence lifted the greenback. Dec S&P composite‑20 home‑price data also outperformed expectations, while a rally in the yuan limited gains. The euro slipped on...
App Spotlight: Plug&Play Currency Sync for Zoho CRM
Plug&Play Currency Sync for Zoho CRM now automates daily exchange‑rate updates, ensuring new deals, quotes and invoices use current rates while preserving historical values. The tool pulls rates overnight and allows up to two manual syncs per day, eliminating the...