Turkish Central Bank Holds Rates and Shifts Away From Easing Bias
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its one‑week repo rate at 37% and left the interest‑rate corridor unchanged at 35.5%‑40%, signaling a pause amid heightened global risk and rising energy prices. In its statement the bank shifted away from an easing bias, stating that any tightening will require a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook. The 16% inflation target for 2024 remains far below the market’s 24% consensus, reflecting a cautious, wait‑and‑see approach. The decision balances domestic demand for lira assets with the need for policy flexibility.
Luke Forau: 2026 Monetary Policy Stance
The Central Bank of Solomon Islands (CBSI) announced an accommodative monetary stance for the next six months, introducing a new policy rate of 1.5% as a primary signal to the market. Growth for 2025 was revised up to 3.6% and...
Chang Yong Rhee: The Future of Asia - Can It Remain the Engine of Global Growth?
In a keynote at the IMF‑Bank of Thailand “Asia in 2050” conference, Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee highlighted Asia’s remarkable economic transformation since 1991. Per‑capita GDP across the region has risen nearly eightfold, lifting more than 1.2 billion people...
BSP Feted for ‘Modern Approach’ to Managing Foreign Reserves
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) received a Central Banking Publications award for its modern approach to foreign‑reserve management. The accolade recognizes the bank’s recent overhaul of its reserve‑management framework, featuring a refreshed strategic asset allocation, active risk‑management techniques, and...
Turkish Current Account Deficit Jumps After Methodological Revision
Turkey's current account posted a $6.8 bn deficit in January, far above the $4.8 bn forecast and analysts' $5.4 bn estimate. The gap was amplified by the Central Bank of Turkey's methodological change, which has retroactively added $8.9 bn to interest‑payment calculations since September 2020....
Tiff Macklem: New Players, Old Risks - Financial Stability in a Changing Landscape
Tiff Macklem warned that the financial system’s growing reliance on non‑bank players is creating new systemic vulnerabilities, especially through hedge‑fund leveraged trading in sovereign bonds and the rapid expansion of private credit. He highlighted that hedge funds now purchase up...
Sabine Mauderer: Presentation of the Deutsche Bundesbank's Annual Report 2025
First Deputy Governor Sabine Mauderer presented the Deutsche Bundesbank’s 2025 Annual Report, highlighting a net equity rise to €363 billion and a gold revaluation reserve of €387 billion. The bank’s loss for the year was more than halved, signalling a clear improvement...
Yen Weakens to 159 per Dollar as Oil Prices Surge Despite Reserve Release
The Japanese yen slipped to roughly 159 per dollar on Thursday, its weakest level since mid‑January, as oil prices surged past $100 a barrel. Despite a recent release of foreign‑exchange reserves aimed at supporting the currency, the yen continued to...
Analysis-Chinese Companies Race to Hedge Against a Swinging Yuan with Regulatory Encouragement
Chinese exporters are scrambling to hedge yuan appreciation, driving a record $39 bn net foreign‑currency sell‑off in January and $100 bn dollar net sales in December. Regulators have issued informal "window guidance" urging banks to lift corporate hedging ratios to roughly 40 %...
Oil Shock, Inflation Pressures Dampen RBI Rate-Cut Hopes
India’s central bank faces mounting pressure to pause its rate‑cut cycle as West‑Asia oil price shocks reignite inflation concerns. A surge in Brent crude, coupled with fading food‑price base effects, threatens to push consumer inflation above the RBI’s 4% target....
ECB Preview: Time for a Panic Room in the ECB’s ‘Good Place’
The European Central Bank heads into its March 18 meeting facing a sharp shift in the macro backdrop as the Middle East war drives oil prices higher, removing any realistic chance of further rate cuts. Instead of fine‑tuning inflation forecasts,...
PBOC Employs Volatile Renminbi Fixing to Manage Iran War Fallout
China’s central bank has allowed the renminbi’s daily fixing volatility to surge to its highest level since December 2024, signalling a tolerance for two‑way price swings. The People’s Bank of China set the reference rate at 6.89 yuan per U.S. dollar,...
LMAX Group’s Barbara Pozdorovkina Rethinks Market Infrastructure
Barbara Pozdorovkina, Chief Growth Officer of LMAX Group, outlines the firm’s shift from a pure FX venue to a global, cross‑asset marketplace that blends traditional finance with digital assets. She highlights the accelerating convergence of stablecoins, blockchain settlement, and 24/7...
Government Backing and Cross-Border Payments Fuel Digital Yuan
China’s e‑CNY has processed roughly $2.37 trillion in transactions over the past two years, buoyed by explicit government backing and a blanket ban on private cryptocurrencies. The digital yuan now anchors Project mBridge, a cross‑border payment network that has expanded to...
Crisis Leadership
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona Jr. warned that monetary policy has reached the limit of its effectiveness as the Philippine economy faces deep‑seated structural problems, not just liquidity shortages. Simultaneous shocks from oil prices above $100 per barrel...
USDCHF Technicals: The USDCHF Tilted the Bias Back to the Downside Late Yesterday
The USD/CHF pair slipped below its 100‑hour and 200‑hour moving averages, turning the short‑term bias bearish. During the Asian‑Pacific session the price briefly crossed the 200‑hour MA but stalled in a resistance zone between 0.7785 and 0.7793, allowing sellers to...
Bloomberg BFIX to Integrate Euronext FX Spot and Precious Metals Transaction Data
Bloomberg Index Services announced that its Bloomberg FX Fixings (BFIX) benchmark will incorporate transaction data from Euronext FX’s spot foreign‑exchange and precious‑metals markets. The addition expands BFIX’s data pool, aiming to enhance the benchmark’s robustness, transparency, and representativeness across global currency...
The USD Is Little Changed vs the Major Currency Pairs After the Ups and Downs Yesterday
The U.S. dollar showed little movement against the euro and yen while slipping slightly versus the pound after yesterday's volatility. Crude oil traded above the $90 psychological barrier, signaling continued bullish pressure. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 2‑year...
Denis Beau: Economic Developments in France and the Euro Area
Denis Beau highlighted that France and the euro area have remained surprisingly resilient despite a cascade of shocks, including the Covid‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and heightened trade tensions. Inflation has dropped sharply, reaching 1.7 % in January and nearing...
Michele Bullock: Listening to Australians, Interpreting the Data and Setting Monetary Policy
Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank of Australia governor, outlined why the Board unanimously raised the cash rate in February. She highlighted that inflationary pressures have intensified since mid‑2022, driven by capacity constraints and a still‑tight labour market. Underlying price growth...
Sarah Hunter: Recent Refinements to the Dual Mandate and Navigating Back to Target
Sarah Hunter, speaking at a Norway conference, outlined the outcomes of the 2022‑23 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) review and the subsequent refinements to its dual mandate. The review praised three decades of strong economic performance under flexible inflation targeting...
Ryozo Himino: Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy
Ryozo Himino delivered a speech in Wakayama outlining Japan’s macro‑economic landscape through a detailed AD‑AS diagram. He organized endogenous variables in a circular layout, positioning stable exogenous factors at the core and short‑lived variables on the periphery. The presentation linked...
Chiara Scotti: Programme for Strengthening the Central Bank Capacities in the Western Balkans with a View to the Integration to...
The European System of Central Banks has launched Phase III of an EU‑financed technical cooperation programme to strengthen central bank capacities in the Western Balkans. Hosted by Banca d’Italia, the initiative builds on two successful phases that delivered training, internships and...
Rupee Rebounds From All-Time Low, up 7 Paise to 92.14 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee rebounded from its all‑time low, trading at 92.14 per U.S. dollar after a 7‑paise gain in early trade. The rally was sparked by a sharp drop in global oil prices following President Donald Trump’s comments that the...
Dollar Eases with Oil on Hopes of Swift End to Iran War
The U.S. dollar slipped after President Donald Trump declared the Iran conflict "very complete," prompting a sharp retreat in oil prices. Brent crude fell to $92.46 a barrel, down from Monday's $120 peak, easing pressure on risk‑sensitive currencies such as...
Re Depreciation Against Dollar Cushions Bullion Price Fall
The Indian rupee fell to a record‑closing 92.35 per dollar, cushioning domestic bullion prices despite a global gold slump. Spot gold in the United States dropped 1.2 % to $5,098 an ounce, while Indian spot gold slipped only ₹77 to ₹158,674...
Europe’s “Limited Responsibility” Model Must Go
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s “limited responsibility” fiscal framework must be abandoned to protect prosperity and sovereignty. She made the remarks at an informal European Council meeting and the Munich Security Conference, calling for deeper fiscal...
Iran War Pushes Rupiah Close to Historic Low
The United States‑Israeli war on Iran has driven the Indonesian rupiah to Rp 17,009 per dollar, flirting with its 1997‑1998 crisis low. Bloomberg data show the currency briefly breaching the Rp 17,000 psychological barrier before settling near Rp 16,950. The conflict has also...
Rand Under Severe Pressure
The South African rand weakened to below R16.90 per US dollar, its lowest level since mid‑December, as oil prices surged more than 25% amid the expanding US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Higher crude costs and heightened global risk aversion pressured the...
U.S. Dollar Closes Sharply Higher on Taipei Forex Market
The U.S. dollar surged against the Taiwan dollar on March 9, closing at NT$31.920, a gain of NT$0.242. Trading volume hit US$2.728 billion, with the pair opening at NT$31.720 and peaking at NT$31.952. The sharp rise reflects heightened dollar strength in Asian...
Traders Boost ECB Rate Bets, Fully Price Two ECB Hikes
Traders have sharply increased bets that the European Central Bank will deliver two full 25‑basis‑point rate hikes before year‑end, up from a single hike priced on Friday. The shift follows a recent spike in energy prices that has reignited fears...
Traders Now See Chance BOE Will Hike Rates This Year
Traders have lifted the probability of a Bank of England rate hike this year to roughly 50%, up from near‑zero earlier in the month. The shift follows persistent inflation readings and tighter labour market data that suggest price pressures remain...
What Regional Data Tell Us About the Euro Area Phillips Curve
A new ECB research bulletin exploits regional data from 168 NUTS‑2 areas across 11 euro‑area countries (1999‑2023) to re‑estimate the Phillips curve. Controlling for region and time fixed effects yields a slope of –0.19, far steeper than the –0.01 found...
As Middle East Conflict Rages, DBS Urges SMEs to Hedge at Least Half Their FX Exposure – Not Time the...
DBS is urging Singapore‑based SMEs to hedge at least half of their foreign‑exchange exposure amid heightened volatility from the Middle‑East conflict. The bank’s SecureFX facility, which lets companies lock in rates up to US$1 million without credit lines, is already used...
War Jitters Drain Liquidity From Iran’s Markets as Rial Pricing Fractures
Iran’s financial markets entered a pronounced lull after US and Israeli strikes heightened geopolitical risk, leaving many trading venues partially shut and liquidity thin. Online dollar pricing via USDT surged to IRR 1,550,000 per dollar, yet physical dollar dealers accept roughly...
FX Week in Review: Saxo Bank CEO, IG Chair, Pepperstone Owners Pay, Conexus IQ Launch, Taurex Gets $40M
Safra Group completed its majority‑stake acquisition of Saxo Bank and named Daniel Belfer CEO. Pepperstone owners were ordered to pay A$96 million to former shareholder CPE Capital after a protracted legal dispute. Former FX executives Nicolas Shamtanis and Stathis Xenos launched...
Gold Price Will Continue to Rise as Central Banks Continue to Diversify Into Non-Dollar Reserves: SBI Research
Gold prices have surged 47.6% since August 2025, reaching $5,092 per ounce, as central banks shift from Treasury securities to gold. The United States and Germany now report gold comprising over 80% of their reserve portfolios, with Italy and India also...
Cross-Border Restrictions in the Age of Geopolitical Tensions: What Seven Decades of Data Tell Us
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
Fed ‘Utterly Paralyzed’ as Iran Conflict Stokes Stagflation Fears
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
Fed's Hammack: Dollar Dominance Remains Intact as Fed Stays Patient
Federal Reserve President Christopher Hammack warned that inflation remains too high and broadly based, signaling that the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold for an extended period. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate while...
Fed's Collins: Expects the Fed Rate Target to Hold Steady for some Time
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Collins signaled that the central bank’s policy rate will likely remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. He emphasized that any future rate cuts will require clear evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target....
ECB Schnabel: ECB Is Still in a Good Place, but War Increases Upside Inflation Risks
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank’s policy stance remains appropriate despite a temporary inflation overshoot, provided expectations stay anchored. She highlighted that inflation is projected to meet the 2% target over the medium term, reinforcing a...
Isabel Schnabel: Navigating Inflation and Employment in an Era of Supply Shocks and AI
In a March 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that, despite calls for a dual mandate, single‑mandate and dual‑mandate central banks usually adopt similar policy actions because price stability constrains any employment‑focused easing. She highlighted that more...
Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Donald Trump’s pick, has been nominated to chair the Federal Reserve. Warsh is known for advocating aggressive rate cuts and a loose monetary stance that many analysts deem risky in the current inflationary...
Dollar Falls After Weak U.S. Jobs Data
U.S. non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% and prompting analysts to anticipate further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index (DXY) slipped to 99.063 from 99.308 as markets digested the weaker labor...
Digital Rupee vs Digital Euro: Which CBDC Is More Business-Friendly?
The article pits India’s Digital Rupee against the EU’s Digital Euro, evaluating which central bank digital currency (CBDC) best serves commercial users. It notes the Digital Rupee’s near‑real‑time settlement, open‑source APIs, and early integration with Indian e‑commerce giants, while the...
Retail Trader Activity Soars as Middle East Conflict Unfolds: Capital.com
Capital.com reported a 49% jump in active retail traders and a 73% rise in total trading volume on 2 March as the Middle East conflict intensified. Oil surged to become the platform’s second‑most‑traded instrument, with new oil traders up 1,255% and...
India’s Digital Rupee (E₹) and E-Commerce Giants: Facts and Myths Around Retail CBDC Launch
India’s central bank has continued its digital rupee (E₹) pilot, but a retail rollout on e‑commerce platforms such as Amazon and Flipkart remains unrealised. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has onboarded a handful of banks, fintechs and select merchants...
Piero Cipollone: Digital Euro
The European Central Bank entered the current preparation phase for a digital euro in November 2025, concentrating on technical readiness, market engagement, and legislative support. A controlled pilot with real‑world transactions is slated for mid‑2027, with a potential first issuance targeted...
Deutsche Bank Names Gerald Podobnik Co-Head of Its Corporate Bank
Deutsche Bank has appointed Gerald Podobnik as Co‑Head of its Corporate Bank, effective immediately, replacing Ole Matthiessen. Podobnik will share global leadership with Michael Diederich and join the Group Management Committee, reporting to Fabrizio Campelli. He brings 23 years at the bank, most recently serving...