Analysis: What Might Trip up Kevin Warsh and His Agenda as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet. Senate confirmation may stall because Sen. Thom Tillis links a vote to a Justice Department probe of current Chair Powell. Markets currently price a 35‑40% chance of a rate hike by year‑end, leaving little room for the cuts Warsh and Trump desire.
ECB Schnabel: There Is No Need to Rush Into Action
European Central Bank Vice President Isabel Schnabel warned that Europe is confronting a massive energy price shock but cautioned against hasty policy moves. She emphasized that the ECB has sufficient time to assess incoming data before deciding on any rate...
USDJPY Cracks Above 160.00 for the First Time Since July 2024
The USD/JPY pair surged past the 160.00 mark, reaching a high of 160.29 – the first breach since July 2024. The move briefly cleared the 2024 swing zone around 160.25 but stalled after only a few pips, indicating limited conviction....
Peso Hits All-Time Low of 60.55 vs $1
The Philippine peso closed at a historic low of 60.55 per U.S. dollar, extending a three‑day slide. The decline was driven by persistent global risks, especially elevated oil prices hovering around $95 per barrel, and a strengthening U.S. dollar backed...
Resilience and Readiness Across the Sterling Monetary Framework
The Bank of England is deepening its repo‑led, demand‑driven liquidity framework, with market‑wide facilities now supplying roughly a quarter of sterling reserves. Short‑Term Repo borrowing averages about £100 billion ($125 bn) and Indexed Long‑Term Repo about £70 billion ($87.5 bn) each auction, while the...
Rates Spark: The EUR Curve Is at a Delicate Balance
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
BSP Holds Rates at 4.25% in Surprise Off-Cycle Meet- #CapitalMarkets #Finance
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its benchmark policy rate at 4.25% after an unexpected off‑cycle meeting, citing the sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East conflict. Domestic fuel costs have surged up to 177%, prompting a national energy emergency...
Fed's Miran Makes Case for Small Balance Sheet
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to...
Naira Gains Across FX Markets as Remittance Rule Boosts Liquidity
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tightened remittance rules, directing all International Money Transfer Operators to route diaspora inflows through designated naira settlement accounts. The move helped the naira appreciate modestly, closing at ₦1,383.88 per dollar, a 0.2% gain, while...
It’s No Longer the ‘American Century,’ But the US Continues to Dominate in Important Ways
The United States continues to dominate key global pillars despite the waning of the so‑called “American Century.” Its dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. equities account for about half of global market capitalisation. The country leads high‑value...
BOC Rogers: Will Have a Tough Job Dealing with Structural Changes to the Economy
The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that structural shifts—declining immigration, evolving trade patterns and rapid AI adoption—will reshape Canada’s economy over the next five years. Combined with a recent rise in energy prices, these forces are expected to keep inflation...
Costa Rica Colon Hits Two-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
Cardoso Says the CBN Will Stay the Course as Reforms Yield Dividends
Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to ongoing reforms, highlighting eleven straight months of disinflation and a newly liberalised foreign‑exchange market that no longer requires intermediaries. He noted that 32 banks have satisfied the latest...
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Forex and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policies: A Comprehensive Guide
The guide explains beggar‑thy‑neighbor policies—tariffs, quotas, and currency devaluation—as tools nations use to protect domestic industries at the expense of trade partners. It traces the concept from Adam Smith’s critique through the Great Depression, post‑World War II Japan, and the 1990s...
Asia Is Getting Crushed Between Oil Prices and the Dollar
Asian economies from India to South Korea are feeling a double squeeze as oil prices spike and the U.S. dollar reaches its strongest level against regional currencies in two decades. The war in the Middle East has choked the Strait...
China Still on Track to Supplant US as World’s No 1 Economy in 10 Years: Academic
China is projected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy within the next decade, according to a University of Hong Kong political science professor. The forecast draws on IMF and World Bank growth trends that show China’s...
BOE's Greene: I Am More Worried About Higher Inflation than Slower Demand From War
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said she is "not close" to voting for a rate hike at the April 30 meeting, despite being the committee's most hawkish voice. She highlighted a sharp rise in one‑year inflation...
The USDCHF Buyers/Sellers Keep the Battle Going and It Has Traders Looking for the Break
The USD/CHF pair is locked in a choppy, range‑bound pattern as lower highs and higher lows signal a lack of clear direction. Both the 100‑hour and 200‑hour moving averages have converged near 0.7888, with price hovering just above, giving buyers...
US February Import Price Index +1.3% vs +0.5% Expected
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
The USD Continues the Consolidation and Waits for the Next Shove
The U.S. dollar is stuck in a tight trading range as markets await a fresh catalyst, while U.S. equities rose and Treasury yields slipped. Iran’s announcement to allow non‑hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz helped lift stocks, lower oil...
DXtrade Integrates Gold-I’s Visual Edge to Enhance Risk Management Capabilities
DXtrade, Devexperts' multi‑asset trading platform, has integrated Gold‑i’s Visual Edge risk‑management tool, giving brokers real‑time visual analytics, automated alerts and scalper detection. The addition expands DXtrade’s feature set beyond its existing MatrixNET liquidity‑management integration. Brokers can now monitor exposure, P&L...
Lagarde Says ECB Won't Be 'Paralyzed by Hesitation' On Iran
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told a Frankfurt conference that the ECB will act decisively if a surge in energy costs linked to Iran threatens broader inflation. She emphasized the bank will not be "paralyzed by hesitation" and reiterated...
Dimitar Radev: The Euro and the Banking Sector - Readiness to Participate and Shared Responsibility
Bulgaria’s switch to the euro was the culmination of a multi‑year overhaul that fortified banks’ balance sheets, upgraded risk‑management practices, and aligned the sector with European standards. The transition unfolded smoothly, with payment systems operating normally and no immediate credit‑risk...
UK February Inflation: Stable Headline Rate Masks Rising Retail and Housi...
UK inflation held at 3% in February 2026, matching expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2025. While the headline rate was unchanged, clothing and footwear prices rose 0.9% and housing costs ticked up to 4.6%, indicating emerging retail...
Elizabeth Genia: Presentation of the March 2026 Economic Outlook, Inflation and Monetary Policy
The Bank of Papua New Guinea presented its March 2026 outlook, projecting GDP growth of about 3% after a strong 5.3% expansion in 2025 and forecasting headline inflation near 4% despite a fresh Middle‑East energy shock. The Monetary Policy Committee kept...
How Exchange Rate Movements Impact Businesses Importing From China
UK importers buying from China face cost volatility because most Chinese suppliers invoice in US dollars, forcing businesses to manage both GBP/USD and USD/CNY pairs. A 5‑10% swing in the pound can instantly raise cost of goods sold, while freight...
National Bank of Hungary Review: No Need to Panic, Unless…
The National Bank of Hungary kept its key policy rate at 6.25% on 24 March, reflecting a hawkish stance amid Middle‑East tensions and an energy‑price shock. Inflation fell to a ten‑year low, but the bank expects it to stabilize around 4%...
Why US and UK Monetary Policy Responses to the Iran War Differ
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
Israel, Iran War: Goldman Sachs Slashes India Growth Forecast, Warns Currency Strain Will Force Rate Hike
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 Indian growth outlook to 5.9%, down from a pre‑war 7% estimate, citing higher oil prices and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects inflation at 4.6% and expects the Reserve Bank...
Australian Inflation Data Due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
Westpac projects Australia’s February CPI to rise 0.1% month‑on‑month, keeping the annual rate at 3.8% for a third straight month. Underlying inflation measured by the trimmed mean is expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, indicating persistent price pressures. The...
Japan’s Soft Inflation Is Temporary and Won’t Alter BoJ’s Rate Hike Cycle
Japan’s February consumer‑price inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY, driven by lower fresh‑food and utility costs, while core‑core inflation stayed near 2.5% above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Wage negotiations indicate a 5.26% average increase, and PMI readings remain in...
Baht Set to Fall Further Amid Mideast Wartime Pressures
Thailand’s baht is projected to weaken further, potentially reaching 33.5 per U.S. dollar this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. The dollar’s safe‑haven appeal and rising U.S. bond yields are bolstering its strength, while regional currencies slide...
Ray Dalio’s Gold Playbook: Why He Now Sees Bullion as “The Safest Money”
Ray Dalio told the World Governments Summit in Dubai that the global monetary system is entering a "capital war" and that gold is now the safest form of money. He linked the erosion of fiat currencies and sovereign debt to...
UBS Curbs Sale of Some FX Products to Swiss Clients After Losses
UBS Group AG has been barred from offering range target profit forwards (RTPFs) to Swiss retail clients after the products caused deep losses for a small group of investors last year. The bank now limits RTPFs to professional investors and...
Kevin Greenidge: Shared Seas, Shared Struggles - a Caribbean Perspective on the Challenges Facing Small Island Developing States
Barbados confronted a 2018 crisis with public debt soaring to 179% of GDP and reserves falling to roughly $110 million USD. It introduced the homegrown Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan, swiftly moving to a primary surplus, restructuring debt and...
Luis De Guindos: Interview with El Mundo
In a March 20 interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos warned that the Middle‑East war will significantly pressure euro‑area growth and inflation, though he does not expect a recession even under the most severe scenarios. The central bank’s baseline assumes...
Japan Weighs Cutting Inflation-Linked Bond Buybacks as Demand Rises
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
How the West Asian Conflict Upended Global Monetary Policy
The US‑Iran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
As Global Yuan Use Expands, Questions Resurface About China’s World-Leading Forex Reserves
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
International Business Briefs | Economist Shin Hyun-Song Tapped to Lead Bank of Korea Amid Inflation Risks
South Korea named economist Shin Hyun‑song, famed for foreseeing the 2008 crisis, as the next Bank of Korea governor as the nation confronts inflation risks from the Iran war and uneven Asian growth. In the United States, a federal jury held...
FX Week in Review: Swissquote Record Results, cBridge Launch, Admirals Restructures, Arsenal CFDs Sponsor, IG Leaving UK?
Swissquote reported record H2‑2025 results, with revenues of CHF 365.2 million ($461 million) and net profit of CHF 208.2 million ($263 million), up 2 % and 32 % respectively. Admirals Group disclosed a €18.5 million loss for 2025 and will relinquish its Estonia investment‑firm licence as part of a...
Bank of England Expected to Keep Rates Steady Into Next Year
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged through next year, as inflation pressures persist. Oxford Economics attributes the heightened risk to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The central bank’s...
Korea Names BIS Veteran, Financial Stability Expert as BOK Head
South Korea announced Shin Hyun Song, a veteran BIS official and financial‑stability scholar, as its next Bank of Korea governor. The nomination comes as the BOK faces heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising oil prices and a delicate balance...
Fed Rate Cut Chance Hits Zero, Threatening Stagflation Where Bitcoin Thrives as a Hedge Against Long Term Inflation
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to...
The Sunday Read: Why the Reserve Bank Needs to Be More Cautious - Podcast
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced another interest‑rate increase as inflation and cost‑of‑living pressures intensify, compounded by geopolitical risks from the war in Iran. Independent economist Nicki Hutley, featured in Guardian Australia’s “Full Story” podcast, argued the central bank should...
Piero Cipollone: Digital Euro - Why?
The European Central Bank is advancing a digital euro to address the euro area’s reliance on non‑European card schemes, with 15 of 21 countries lacking a strong domestic digital payment option. A 12‑month pilot, beginning in the second half of...
China to Allow More Banks to Handle Digital Yuan: Sources
China's central bank will add twelve new banks to the e‑CNY programme, expanding the roster from ten to twenty‑two institutions. The new participants include major joint‑stock banks such as China Everbright and city commercial banks like Bank of Ningbo. The...
Our Underappreciated International Reserve System
The latest NBER paper shows a pronounced shift in the composition of global foreign‑exchange reserves. The U.S. dollar’s share slipped below 57% in Q3 2025, while gold overtook the euro to become the second‑largest reserve asset. Central banks are diversifying into...
Central Banking for Open Economies in a Changed World
The Peterson Institute for International Economics convened a high‑level panel of central bank governors from New Zealand, Spain, Korea and Switzerland to examine open‑economy monetary policy in a rapidly shifting financial and geopolitical climate. Moderated by former Bank of Ireland governor...
Markets Raise Bets on Bank of Canada Hikes as Oil Fears Mount
Markets are pricing a more aggressive Bank of Canada tightening path, with traders betting on a cumulative 75 basis‑point increase by 2026 and a 25‑basis‑point hike as early as July. The central bank held its policy rate at 2.25% and...