Watch: Why We Still Think EUR/USD Can Reach 1.20
ING’s foreign‑exchange strategists remain bullish on the euro, forecasting EUR/USD could climb to 1.20 by year‑end despite heightened geopolitical risk, rising oil prices and a temporary US inflation spike. They argue the Federal Reserve will treat the oil‑driven price bump as transitory and still deliver two rate cuts this year. Elevated oil costs are expected to persist, but Europe’s gas exposure is viewed as limited, reducing downside pressure on the euro. While a short‑term dip is possible, the team expects a robust recovery thereafter.
ECB Policymaker Villeroy: Potential Rate Hikes Will Be Decided Meeting by Meeting
ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau warned that any future rate adjustments will be decided on a meeting‑by‑meeting basis, with a bias toward hikes rather than cuts. He emphasized the central bank’s vigilance and readiness to act amid energy market...
FX Daily: Hawkish Hangover
European central banks delivered a hawkish surprise, pushing the euro and pound higher while the dollar weakened. The ECB signaled a possible April rate hike, adding 15 basis points to market expectations, and the Bank of England voted unanimously to...
Making Sense of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on March 18, 2026
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, marking a third consecutive hold. Inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, still under the 2% target, while the labour market remains weak. The decision reflects caution amid...
ECB Would Need April Hike If Price Outlook Sours, Nagel Says
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that the ECB could be forced to raise interest rates as early as April if inflationary pressures intensify, particularly due to the ongoing Iran war. He indicated that a deteriorating medium‑term...
Asia Week Ahead: Japanese Inflation and South Korean Sentiment Data
Japan’s February CPI is expected to slow further thanks to an energy subsidy, but core‑core inflation will stay well above the 2% target, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious about rate hikes. The central bank is likely to postpone an...
CBDC Neutrality, Bank Liquidity, and the Hybrid Nature of Bank Deposits
Central‑bank digital currency (CBDC) could remain neutral for banks if the central bank recycles CBDC balances back to them at rates equal to deposit‑funding costs, preserving credit creation and profit margins. Deposits, however, are hybrid instruments that provide money‑like services...
MacroVoices #524 Simon White: War + Inflation = More Inflation
Simon White joins MacroVoices to argue that ongoing geopolitical conflicts are adding a new layer to inflationary pressures, creating a "three‑act" inflation scenario. He draws parallels between today’s monetary stimulus and the 1970s oil shocks, suggesting that war‑driven commodity spikes...
Bank of England Votes Unanimously to Leave Rates Unchanged at 3.75%
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target, pressured by higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. By holding rates steady, the MPC...
Expanded April Monetary Policy Review and Change to Focus of Business NZ Speech
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its April Monetary Policy Review at 2 pm on its website, followed by an online media conference at 3 pm, marking a shift toward greater transparency for future reviews. Governor Adrian Breman will engage with...
Risk Aversion Deepens as Fed Highlights Inflation Risks, Downplays Growth Impact
Risk aversion deepened as the Fed highlighted heightened inflation risks while downplaying growth concerns. The central bank left rates unchanged but lifted its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%, signalling a longer‑lasting price pressure outlook. Simultaneously, Iran’s attacks on key...
New Fed "Dot Plot" Sends Markets Sliding
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
Dollar Gains on Weak Stocks and Hawkish Fed
The dollar index rose 0.51% after U.S. February producer prices outperformed forecasts, with final‑demand PPI up 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year and core PPI climbing 3.9% YoY—the strongest gain in 13 months. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged...
Weaker Dollar and Diversification Drive Global Investors Toward Emerging Markets, Says Finnfund
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
RBNZ Releases Summary of Submissions and Key Decisions From Liquidity Management Consultation
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is overhauling its liquidity management framework after a consultation on recent market changes. It will introduce weekly full‑allotment open‑market operations (OMO) to inject liquidity at a fixed spread to the official cash rate,...
Fed Meeting Updates: FOMC Set to Hold Rates Steady as Oil Prices Soar
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
Hedge Funds Position for Potential BOJ Hawkish Tilt Amid Iran War Inflation Risks
Hedge funds such as Fivestar Asset Management are reshaping their Japanese bond and currency positions ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, expecting Governor Kazuo Ueda to hint at a hawkish stance due to inflation pressures from the Iran...
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect on 19 March
The Bank of England will announce its March 19 interest‑rate decision, weighing whether to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% or trim it by 25 basis points to 3.50%. A narrow 5‑4 vote in February highlighted deep divisions within the...
Fed Set to Hold as Deutsche Bank Flags Geopolitics Clouding Outlook
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.8909 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8798)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8909 for the current session, modestly above the 6.8798 market estimate. The central bank maintains the yuan’s daily fluctuation band at plus or minus 2% around this midpoint....
Liquidity Faces a Bit of Squeeze as Rs 2 Lakh Crore Flows to Tax Kitty
India's banking system liquidity surplus shrank to ₹75,483 crore after a ₹2 lakh crore advance‑tax outflow, pushing overnight money‑market rates to 5.31 %. The RBI responded with a 7‑day variable‑rate repo, but attracted only ₹48,014 crore in bids. Simultaneously, the central bank sold over $15 billion...
RBA Responds to Domestic Strength and Rising External Risks
On March 17 the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, marking its second straight increase and a sharp reversal from the gradual easing path pursued throughout 2025. The hikes respond to inflation running above...
Why the Digital Euro Needs Worker Input
The European Central Bank’s digital euro proposal aims to cement Europe’s digital sovereignty and foster fair competition ahead of a potential 2029 launch. Advocates argue that the CBDC must be sovereign, public, and inclusive to win trust from citizens and...
Rupee Falls 12 Paise to Settle at Record Low of 92.40 Against US Dollar
The Indian rupee slipped to a provisional all‑time low of 92.40 per U.S. dollar, down 12 paise, as rising Brent crude prices and sustained foreign institutional investor outflows weighed on the currency. The decline was amplified by geopolitical tension in West...
RBA Rate Hike Announced, Experts Fear Impact on Retail
Pulled in Opposite Directions, the Swiss National Bank Is Likely to Keep Rates Steady
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% as inflation remains near‑zero, hovering between 0.1% and 0.3% year‑on‑year. Recent forecasts show a modest rise to 0.2% in 2026 and 0.8% by mid‑2028, supporting a...
FX Talking: Forecast Table
ING’s research team released its latest foreign‑exchange forecast table on 16 March 2026, drawing on Refinitiv data and internal modeling. The outlook covers major pairs such as USD/EUR, GBP/USD, and emerging‑market currencies, highlighting expected rate movements through the year. Analysts attribute the...
Global FX Derivatives Market Overview: Size, Structure and Uses
Global FX derivatives daily turnover hit $6.6 trillion in April 2025, about double the 2013 level. While FX swaps still dominate, outright forwards and options are growing fastest, reshaping product composition. Trading remains concentrated in London, though Asia‑Pacific’s share is rising and...
Why Global Treasurers Are Realigning Financing with RMB Exposure
Global corporates are confronting a pronounced mismatch between their Renminbi (RMB) operating exposure and the currency composition of their debt. While roughly a quarter of revenues and costs are RMB‑denominated, only 14% of corporate debt is issued in the currency,...
KCM Trade Launches Copy Trading Service
KCM Trade, a global CFD broker, has introduced KCM Trade Copy, a mobile copy‑trading platform now available on iOS and Android. The app lets clients automatically mirror the trades of vetted Master Traders in real time, with adjustable lot sizes,...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session shows little catalyst, keeping markets rangebound while traders monitor the escalating US‑Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. In North America, the spotlight shifts to Canada’s CPI release, with the Trimmed Mean inflation rate projected at 2.3%...
Zeal Group (Traze, ZFX) Hires Equiti Alum Ahmed Pasha to Head Risk and Trading
Zeal Group, the London‑based FX and CFD broker behind the Traze brand, has appointed Ahmed Pasha as Global Head of Risk and Trading. Pasha arrives after a seven‑year stint at Equiti Capital, where he most recently led Trading Analytics, and...
BSP Seen Unlikely to Rush Into Hawkish Action
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is unlikely to raise interest rates immediately despite oil prices breaching $100 per barrel. Inflation remains modest at 2.4%, within the central bank’s 2‑4% target, and the BSP recently cut its policy rate to 4.25%...
It Was Unthinkable a Couple of Weeks Ago, but Could the Next Move by the Fed Be a Rate Hike?
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting may break the recent easing trend as traders assign a roughly 25% probability to a rate hike, driven by a sharp oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict. Chief economist Carl Weinberg warns that...
Interest Rates Hold ‘Almost Certain’ as Trump Rules Out Deal with Iran
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 3.75% as the Middle‑East war fuels higher energy prices and fresh inflation risks. Economists had pencilled in a rate cut after January’s inflation dip...
FX Week in Review: Taurex CEO Returns, Trive Owner Banned, CFDs Broker Loses FCA License, FPFX Investor, Prop Prediction Markets
The FCA barred Kasim Garipoglu, the Trive owner, for honesty and integrity failures, prompting heightened regulatory scrutiny across the FX and CFD sector. Quadcode secured a significant strategic stake in Game 7, the parent of FPFX Tech, bolstering its foothold in prop‑trading...
Trump’s War Jolts Global Central Banks From Fed to ECB to BOJ
Global central banks are preparing to evaluate the economic fallout from the two‑week US‑Iran conflict. In the coming week, policymakers from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan and other major jurisdictions will announce decisions that could signal a new...
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Understanding Reserve Currencies: The Role of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, accounting for about 57% of disclosed reserves in Q3 2025, down from a peak of 72% in 2001. IMF data show the euro (20%), yen (6%), pound sterling (5%), Canadian dollar (3%)...
Japan, South Korea Ready to Act Against FX Volatility, Ministers Say
Japan and South Korea’s finance ministers voiced serious concern over the sharp depreciation of the yen and won, saying they stand ready to act against excessive foreign‑exchange volatility. The yen slipped to its lowest level in 20 months, hovering near...
Decentering the Dollar: A Conversation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑profile conversation titled “Decentering the Dollar,” featuring former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and renowned economist Maurice Obstfeld. The panel examined how the Trump administration’s trade and geopolitical shifts could undermine...
BOJ Seen Waiting Till April for Rate Hike Amid Iran War Turbulence
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 2026 meeting, postponing any hike until at least April. Market participants cite heightened volatility from the Iran‑Israel conflict and surging energy prices as key...
Barclays Pushes Back Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
Barclays economists now expect the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2024, pushing the next reduction to March 2027. This postpones the earlier June and September 2024 cuts the bank had forecast. Market pricing has collapsed to just 22.5...
India’s Forex Reserves Fall $11.68 Billion to $716.81 Billion, Biggest Drop in over a Year
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves dropped to $716.81 billion for the week ended March 6, a decline of $11.68 billion from the prior week—the steepest fall in more than a year. The Reserve Bank of India sold roughly $6.1 billion of dollars to defend the rupee...
RBI Net Buys Record $6.2 Billion Debt to Shield Bonds From War Shockwaves
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
Cardoso Returns CBN to Central Banking Orthodoxy
Nigeria’s central bank, under new governor Olayemi Cardoso, has shifted back to orthodox monetary policy after a period of development‑bank‑style interventions. Since taking office in October 2023, Cardoso led a tightening cycle that pushed the policy rate to a record...
Barry Eichengreen on Money Beyond Borders
Barry Eichengreen’s new book *Money Beyond Borders* traces the rise and fall of global currencies from ancient coinage to modern digital assets, using history to assess the U.S. dollar’s waning dominance. He argues that geopolitical tensions, mounting U.S. debt, and...
MNC Banks Resist RBI Plan to Access Offshore Deal Data
The Reserve Bank of India has drafted a rule requiring foreign‑bank branches in India to report all non‑deliverable forward (NDF) contracts to the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. The proposal mandates disclosure of notional values, counterparties, maturities and settlement dates,...
Retreating but Not Defeated: AUD/USD Bulls Find Hope in Technical Support...
AUD/USD dropped more than 1% from its multi‑year peak as the U.S. dollar rallied on heightened safe‑haven demand. Inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.2%, prompting markets to price a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point RBA hike at the March...
Yen Hits New Low Against Singapore Dollar as Middle East Crisis Jolts Oil Prices
The Japanese yen slipped to a fresh low of 124.78 per Singapore dollar, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices linked to the escalating Middle East crisis. Oil breached the $100‑a‑barrel threshold, pushing Japan’s import bill higher and prompting...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...