Dollar Slips as CPI Fails to Rattle Fed’s Transitory View, Islamabad Talks Awaited
The U.S. dollar eased after March CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation spiking on energy but core inflation remaining subdued. The softer core reading reinforced the Federal Reserve’s view that the inflation shock is transitory, keeping near‑term rate‑cut odds modest. Meanwhile, geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz and looming oil‑price risks are keeping markets cautious. European bond yields rose on jet‑fuel shortage concerns, lifting EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, while Canada’s labor data and Asian price pressures add further nuance to the global outlook.
Europe Braces for a Spike in Inflation
Investors are betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year as Europe confronts a fresh inflation surge. Natural‑gas prices have jumped roughly 40 % since February, driven by the U.S.–Israeli strikes on...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session will feature only low‑tier releases—Swiss consumer confidence and Italian industrial production—so market impact is expected to be muted. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran delegations are traveling to Islamabad to begin peace talks that could influence global economic stability....
FX Daily: First Inflation Test
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
Bank of Korea Holds Rates Steady, Stressing Outlook Is Data Dependent
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. Governor Rhee, set to retire on April 20, emphasized a data‑dependent approach and avoided any forward guidance on future...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Doubts over Islamabad Talks This Weekend
Iranian state media rejected reports of a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, insisting talks will only resume after a Lebanon ceasefire. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Katayama warned of possible FX intervention as oil‑driven volatility spikes, while the Bank of Japan flagged...
RBI Mandates Payment of Inward Remittances on Same Business Day
India, the world’s top remittance recipient with $135 billion in 2025 inflows, is set to speed up inbound foreign‑exchange transfers. The Reserve Bank of India issued a final circular mandating banks to credit payments to beneficiaries on the same business day...
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Understanding Open Market Operations: The Fed's Tool for Monetary Policy
Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos...
Marex Launches Private Markets Desk
Marex Group plc announced the launch of a dedicated Private Markets desk, headed by Jack Carnell and Lloyd Beeston. The unit will deliver institutional‑grade foreign‑exchange and interest‑rate hedging solutions tailored to private‑capital managers. Leveraging Marex’s proprietary technology, investment‑grade credit rating and global...
RBI Issues Guidelines to Enhance Efficiency of Cross-Border Inward Payments
The Reserve Bank of India has released new guidelines to accelerate cross‑border inward payments. Banks must credit inbound funds received during foreign‑exchange market hours on the same business day and those received after hours on the next business day, while...
Banks Close Out Bulk of Their Long Dollar Positions Ahead of RBI’s April 10 Deadline
The Reserve Bank of India issued a prudential circular on March 27 requiring banks to cap their net open position in INR at $100 million, with compliance due by April 10. In response, banks have unwound roughly 90 percent of the estimated $18‑30 billion...
BSP: Policy Vigilance to Continue After S&P Tempers Philippine Outlook
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it will keep monitoring the impact of the Middle East war after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines' sovereign outlook from positive to stable while keeping the BBB+ rating. S&P cited the country's strong...
The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
François Villeroy De Galhau: Navigating an Uncertain World - Steering Monetary Policy in the Right Direction to Hold Our Course
At a Sciences Po address on April 2, 2026, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the eurozone entered the year with a rare "2 % inflation, 2 % interest rate" equilibrium. He warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could reignite...
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The Reserve Bank of India: Functions & Role
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), founded on April 1, 1935 under the RBI Act of 1934, serves as India’s central bank and monetary authority. It formulates and implements monetary policy, regulates currency issuance, and oversees the nation’s credit and foreign‑exchange markets....
EUR Money Markets: Stirred, Not Shaken
An oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict has pushed the European Central Bank out of its previously comfortable stance, reviving expectations of up to three rate hikes this year. Short‑end money‑market rates have fallen, yet no systemic stress is...
Denis Beau: Stablecoins - What Strategic Choices for Europe?
Denis Beau, senior official at Banque de France, outlined the EU’s strategic response to the rise of USD‑denominated stablecoins. He warned that unchecked “stablecoinisation” and “dollarisation” could threaten Europe’s monetary sovereignty and advocated preserving the two‑tier system of central‑bank money...
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Preparing for a Potential Launch
Eurozone leaders reaffirmed the strategic importance of a digital euro, linking it to monetary sovereignty, reduced retail‑payment fragmentation, and Single Market resilience. The Eurosystem is advancing technical preparations but will only issue the token‑based currency after a dedicated legal framework...
Gabriel Makhlouf: Inflation, Growth, and Monetary Policy in a Fractured World
Gabriel Makhlouf, the ECB’s chief economist, warned that the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is creating a deep energy supply shock that could push oil to $145 per barrel and keep euro‑area inflation above the 2 % target through 2027. He outlined three...
Luis De Guindos: Navigating Turbulence - Challenges for Europe and the Path Ahead
Luis de Guindos warned that Europe faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty, especially from the Middle‑East war, which threatens energy prices and financial stability. He noted the euro area grew 1.5% in 2025 and inflation has hovered near the ECB’s 2% target,...
Ceasefire May Reduce Case for Fed Cuts as Inflation Risks Persist: Timiraos
A ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased the growth‑downside risk that previously bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While markets have nudged up the odds of easing, analyst Nick Timiraos argues that inflation pressures remain...
AUD Seen Capped Near 0.7150 as Hormuz Uncertainty Clouds Outlook: Westpac
Westpac predicts the Australian dollar will be capped between $0.7100 and $0.7150 over the next one to two weeks unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and the US‑Iran ceasefire proves durable. The bank’s FX chief says a breakout higher...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.8649 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8315)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY mid‑point at 6.8649, within its usual ±2% trading band. The central bank also injected roughly 500 million yuan (about $73 million) into the market through a 7‑day reverse‑repo operation, leaving the repo rate...
RBNZ Says Prior Cuts Still Support Growth, Sees Upside if Conflict Eases
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate at 2.25% for a second meeting, noting that earlier rate cuts are still feeding through the economy. Governor Anna Breman said growth this year hinges on a swift resolution to...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8315 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8315, according to Reuters estimates. The midpoint is announced each morning and defines a ±2% trading band for the onshore yuan. A stronger-than-expected midpoint is...
North Macedonia’s FX Reserves up 9.6% Y/Y in March
North Macedonia's foreign exchange reserves rose 9.6% year‑on‑year to €4.249 bn (about $4.6 bn) in March 2026, according to the central bank. The gain follows a 5.5% dip in February, which the bank linked to rising business costs from Middle‑East tensions. Securities still...
RBI Monetary Policy: Currency Forward Curbs Temporary, Says Sanjay Malhotra
The Reserve Bank of India announced that its recent non‑deliverable forward (NDF) market curbs are temporary, targeting speculative pressure linked to the West Asia conflict. Banks must trim net open forex positions to $100 million by April 10, with no deadline extension,...
RBI Monetary Policy: Call Below Repo to Comfort Banks
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clarified that call‑rate levels below the repo rate are a liquidity‑comfort measure, not a prelude to a rate cut. In March, the weighted‑average call rate (WACR) held at 5.25%, aligning with the 5.25% policy...
Bahrain and UAE Seal $5.3 Billion Currency Swap to Strengthen Economic Ties
The central banks of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have signed a five‑year currency swap agreement worth roughly $5.3 billion (BHD 2 billion or AED 20 billion). The pact is designed to provide mutual liquidity support, promote the use of local currencies in trade,...
West Asia War: RBI Warns of Upside Risks to Current Account Deficit in FY27; Rupee Faces Continued Headwinds
The Reserve Bank of India warned that rising energy prices and a strong dollar could push the current account deficit (CAD) higher in FY27, after it widened to 1.3% of GDP in Q3 2025‑26. Net capital inflows fell short of...
NBP Preview: Rates on Hold, Rhetoric Turning Neutral/Hawkish
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is expected to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% through the end of 2024 as global uncertainty and a lingering energy shock persist. Despite a weaker-than-expected pass‑through of oil price hikes to domestic fuel costs...
Rupee Likely to Stabilise at 92-93 Level: EAC-PM Chairman
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister said the Indian rupee is likely to settle between 92 and 93 per U.S. dollar after recent volatility from global tensions and foreign institutional investor outflows. A temporary cease‑fire between the United...
Bank of England: Interest Rate Hike Predictions Cool as Trader Sentiment Resets
Traders have sharply revised expectations for Bank of England policy, now pricing in only a single 25‑basis‑point rate hike after a cease‑fire between the US, Israel and Iran eased Middle‑East tensions. The two‑year gilt yield fell to 4.1%, down from...
RBI Ups Crude Oil, Exchange Rate Baseline Assumptions for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
FX Daily: Global FX Comes Back From the Brink
A two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and its adversaries has sparked a broad risk‑on rally, lifting equities, steepening yield curves and prompting a rebound in most currencies against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which rose about 3 % in March, slipped...
Dollar Slides as Ceasefire Unwinds War Premium—Is EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.20?
The U.S. dollar fell sharply after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel, erasing much of the war‑premium that had buoyed the greenback. The move sparked a risk‑on rally, with Asian equity indices such as South...
The ECB Is Stirring Memories of 2011 — Not All of Them Good
The Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar team has been introduced, showcasing five senior contributors who specialize in European central‑bank analysis. Chris Giles leads the unit as the FT’s economics commentator, while Andrew Whiffin brings a decade of corporate‑commentary experience. Data‑driven...
Rupee Surges 50 Paise to 92.56 Against USD in Early Trade After US, Iran Agree to 2-Week Ceasefire
The Indian rupee jumped 50 paise to 92.56 per dollar in early trade after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of US strikes on Iran. The cease‑fire sparked a broad rally in risk assets, with Asian equities, gold and silver...
Unseen Momentum Could Be Mounting Behind the Yuan
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Chinese yuan could become a global reserve currency within five years, challenging the U.S. dollar’s entrenched position. The dollar still processes about 58% of international transactions, while the yuan accounts for roughly 2% of...
Little Evidence of Increase in USD Hedge Ratios
European investors have not increased their dollar hedges despite early‑year dollar weakness. Danish insurers and pension funds cut their FX hedge ratio to 70.3% in February, the lowest level since before April 2023. Private‑sector foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has...
Copy Trading in South Africa – Is It a Shortcut or a Smart Strategy for New Forex Traders?
Copy trading has gained traction among South African forex newcomers, offering a way to mirror seasoned traders’ positions automatically. The model promises rapid market entry without the need to develop a personal strategy, appealing to smartphone‑savvy users lacking formal education....
OCR on Hold at 2.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25 percent as the Middle‑East conflict pushed global oil prices higher and disrupted supply chains. Near‑term headline inflation is projected at 3.0 percent in the March 2026 quarter and...
Afreximbank Launches $10bn Crisis Support for Africa, Caribbean
Afreximbank has approved a $10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme to cushion African and Caribbean economies from the fallout of the Middle‑East conflict. The fund will supply short‑term foreign‑exchange and liquidity to keep essential imports such as fuel, food and pharmaceuticals...
Dollar Stablecoins versus a Retail Digital Euro? They Are Different – Not Rivals
The U.S. Congress enacted the GENIUS Act, requiring stablecoin issuers to back each token with short‑dated Treasury securities, effectively tying the burgeoning stablecoin market to U.S. sovereign debt. This framework mirrors the EU’s MiCA rules for electronic money tokens, but...
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: March 2026
The UK’s March 2026 statistical release shows official international reserves totaling £115.5 billion (approximately $148 billion), a 1.2% increase from the previous month. Gold holdings rose to 310 tonnes, valued at roughly $5.5 billion, while foreign‑currency assets grew on the back of higher US‑dollar positions....
Gabriel Makhlouf: Bridge to the Future - Mobilising Europe's Savings in a Fragmenting World
Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warned that Europe’s household deposits now total roughly $11 trillion, yet investment falls far short of the $818‑$872 billion needed annually by 2030. He linked this gap to weak growth, persistent Single Market...
François Villeroy De Galhau: Little Time Left to Wake up - Can We Reconcile Europe with Speed?
François Villeroy de Galhau used his final Eurofi speech as Governor of the Banque de France to warn that Europe is running out of time to act on known reforms. He stressed that the continent knows what must be done,...
FP Markets Adds Acuity AI-Based Trading Signals
FP Markets has partnered with Acuity Trading to launch FP Markets Intelligence, an AI‑powered suite of trading tools for its retail FX and CFD clients. The platform delivers market sentiment analysis, AI‑driven signals and real‑time research, and is fully integrated...
Ida Wolden Bache: Policy Rate Kept Unchanged at This Meeting
Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, left its policy rate unchanged at 4 percent, citing persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and heightened uncertainty from rising energy prices. The committee warned that a rate increase is likely in upcoming meetings as wage...
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: Evolving Roles and Responsibilities of Central Banks in a Changing Landscape
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour argued that central banks must evolve from pure stability stewards to architects of economic resilience. He highlighted four structural pressures—global economic re‑ordering, rapid digital transformation, demographic shifts, and heightened public scrutiny—that are reshaping policy effectiveness. In response,...