UK Inflation Heads Towards 4%, but Rate Hikes Off the Table for Now
UK headline CPI rose to 3.3% in March, with core services inflation holding at 4.2%. Energy price forecasts—oil at $90‑$100 per barrel and natural gas around €55 (≈$60) per MWh—suggest inflation will hover between 3.5% and 4% through the second half of the year. The Ofgem electricity and gas price cap is expected to increase 10‑15% in July, lifting household energy bills roughly 25% before easing later in the year. Given inflation staying below the 4% trigger, the Bank of England is likely to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2024.
JP Morgan Stays Bearish on the Japanese Yen Amid Higher Energy Prices
JP Morgan maintains a medium‑ to long‑term bearish outlook on the Japanese yen as higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict strain Japan’s import‑dependent economy. The firm cites widening trade deficits and rising cost‑push inflation as key drivers of yen...
ECB Policymaker Kazāks Says Not in a Rush to Make a Move on Monetary Policy
ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazāks told investors that, despite heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, the central bank sees no immediate need to raise interest rates. He emphasized the "luxury" of time to collect more data before deciding...
Japan Exports Beat but Rising Import Costs Squeeze Trade Surplus
Japan’s March trade data showed exports rising 11.7% year‑on‑year, led by a 17.7% jump in shipments to China and modest growth to the United States. Imports surged 10.9% YoY, driven largely by higher energy costs, pushing the trade surplus down...
China Exporters Beset by Yuan Surge Look to Sell Dollar Rallies
Chinese exporters are grappling with a rapid yuan appreciation that has eroded profit margins on overseas orders. Gloria Yu, a bicycle parts supplier, reported heavy losses after the currency surged earlier this year and is now seeking ways to manage...
Ringgit Opens Almost Flat Against Greenback as US Extends Ceasefire with Iran
The Malaysian ringgit opened virtually unchanged at around RM3.95 per US dollar as traders digested the United States’ decision to extend its cease‑fire with Iran. Crude oil prices surged, with WTI up 2.57% to $89.67 a barrel and Brent 3.74%...
Dollar at Week High as Markets Raise Doubts over Iran Ceasefire
The U.S. dollar steadied in early Asian trade, climbing to a one‑week high of 98.415 on the dollar index as doubts resurfaced over President Trump’s indefinite Iran cease‑fire extension. The uncertainty revived safe‑haven demand for the greenback, while a slightly...
Central Bank Independence: An Update
Recent research reviewed by Eijffinger and de Haan (2026) confirms that while legal independence reduces inflation, it does not shield central banks from political interference. Studies show that roughly 10% of central banks experience annual political pressure, and 39% have...
Warsh Signals Evolution, Not Revolution at the Fed
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony highlighted a push for gradual, not radical, changes at the Federal Reserve. He reiterated long‑held criticism of the Fed’s oversized balance sheet and advocated slow, predictable reductions while relying on interest‑rate tools rather than balance‑sheet adjustments....
BOJ to Skip Rate Hike Next Week; June Seen as Next Window
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% during the April 28 meeting, postponing any further tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda cited recent disruptions to Middle‑East oil supplies as a key factor, seeking more data on...
Taking Bank of Korea Helm, Crisis-Era Veteran Pursues Ambitious Won Overhaul
Shin Hyun Song, a veteran economist who warned of the 2008 crisis, has taken over as governor of the Bank of Korea. He unveiled an ambitious plan to internationalize the won, including round‑the‑clock FX trading and an offshore settlement system,...
Peter Kažimír: Transformation, Integration and the New Frontier of Monetary Policy
Peter Kažimír outlined Slovakia’s three‑decade journey from a post‑communist economy to a stable euro‑zone member. He emphasized that macro‑economic stability, openness, and a credible central bank were prerequisites for growth, and that banking reforms were critical to transmit policy. The...
FX Daily: Dollar to Weigh up Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is set to dominate U.S. monetary policy headlines, with markets expecting a dovish stance on rates and a hawkish approach to the Fed’s balance‑sheet reduction. A potential Iranian delegation to peace talks in Pakistan is...
Geopolitics and FX Cloud Treasury Outlook - Weekly Roundup: 21 April
Treasury teams are feeling heightened pressure from geopolitics, with 88% of respondents expressing moderate to high concern, prompting a defensive shift toward money‑market funds and early AI adoption for cash forecasting. European banks see digital assets as a modest threat,...
PH Dollar Deficit Swells to over One-Year High on Middle East Crisis
In March 2026 the Philippines recorded a $2.6 billion balance‑of‑payments deficit, the widest since January 2025, as soaring energy prices tied to the Middle‑East crisis forced higher dollar outflows. The first‑quarter gap widened to $5.3 billion, 79% higher than a year earlier,...
Why the BIS Is Worried About Stablecoins
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that the stablecoin market’s concentration—dominated by Tether and Circle, which together hold about 85% of the $315 billion supply—poses systemic risks. BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos called for stronger international regulatory coordination to...
Oil Shock Muddies Rate Path, but Loonie Seen Gaining Ground: TD Economics
TD Economics warns that renewed oil market turbulence is reviving inflation risks, keeping bond yields above pre‑crisis levels and clouding the path for central‑bank rate cuts. The firm expects the Canadian dollar to benefit from a narrowing US‑Canada rate gap,...
François Villeroy De Galhau: One Year on - Why the Transatlantic Partnership Remains of Mutual Interest
In a speech to the Atlantic Council, French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the global economy proved more resilient than expected over the past year. Global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing the 2.8% forecast, while...
BOJ Likely to Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged in April - Report
Japan’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April policy meeting, as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict weighs on decision‑making. Traders currently assign only about a 15% probability to an April hike, though odds climb...
USDJPY Erases Friday's Losses on Renewed US-Iran Tensions as Ceasefire Deadline Nears
The USDJPY pair erased Friday's losses as U.S. President Trump reaffirmed the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting traders to hedge ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. The pair bounced off the 158.00 support level, with buyers targeting the 162.00 handle,...
Andrew Bailey: Central Bank Independence – in Need of Further Thinking
Andrew Bailey argues that the traditional notion of central‑bank independence (CBI) is outdated, especially as banks now juggle both monetary and financial‑stability mandates. He traces CBI’s roots from 19th‑century ideas of aligned interests to the post‑1970s statutory frameworks that anchor...
Capital.com Client Trading Volumes Hit Record $1.27 Trillion in Q1 2026 Led by MENA, Gold
Capital.com reported a record $1.27 trillion in client trading volume for Q1 2026, an 11.2% increase from the previous quarter. The number of trades jumped 81% year‑on‑year, driven by gold’s record‑high prices, volatile crypto markets, and heightened oil volatility amid Middle‑East conflict....
China’s Lending Benchmark Stability Prompts Asian Markets Growth
China’s core lending benchmark, the 7‑day repo rate, has held steady at 2.5% for the third consecutive month, reinforcing liquidity in the country’s banking system. The stability has encouraged investors to increase exposure to Asian equities, driving a 1.8% rally...
FX Daily: Looking for a New Steady State for the Dollar
The dollar rebounded after the Strait of Hormuz was declared fully open, but analysts expect it to hover around the 97.5‑98 DXY level for the rest of the quarter. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that prolonged high oil prices could...
Market, Rupee Fortunes May Prove Fickle Amid Iran Flareup
India’s equity markets are poised to extend recent gains despite renewed geopolitical tension after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude back toward $100 a barrel. The Sensex and Nifty have risen over 5% since early April, while...
Rebalancing the Chinese Economy
China is shifting its growth model from an investment‑ and export‑driven engine to a more consumption‑focused, high‑tech economy. Over the past decade the investment share of GDP fell from 47% to 41%, while consumption rose to about 57% of output....
Rupee Depreciation Forces Indian Firms to Adopt Yuan Payments, Boost Local Sourcing
Indian manufacturers are increasingly paying Chinese suppliers in yuan to offset the rupee’s 4‑5% slide against the dollar. Companies such as PG Electroplast and Super Plastronics have begun yuan‑based settlements, while Godrej Appliances is exploring the option. Retailer Lifestyle has...
ECB Moves Away From April Hike as Peace Talks Progress: Overview
European Central Bank officials are reassessing an April rate hike as US‑Iran peace talks ease oil price pressures and bring inflation in the euro zone above 4%. President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data‑dependent approach, while the Governing Council remains divided,...
How the Iran War Could Speed the Decline of the US Dollar
The article examines how the Iran war and broader geopolitical shocks could accelerate the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves. While the dollar still commands 56% of foreign‑exchange holdings, its dominance has slipped from a peak...
Dollar Drops on Middle East Peace Optimism
The dollar index slipped to a seven‑week low as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace deal eased safe‑haven demand. An 11% plunge in WTI crude lowered inflation expectations, adding dovish pressure on the Federal Reserve. Fed’s San Francisco President Mary...
Fed's Waller: Job Market Break Even Rate Now Likely Around Zero
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the job‑market break‑even rate – the unemployment level that would allow the Fed to keep policy unchanged – is now effectively zero. He warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push inflation higher...
10 AI Forex Trading Bots in 2026: Features and Use Cases for Getting Started
The 2026 guide surveys ten AI‑driven forex trading bots, ranging from beginner‑friendly platforms like MoneyFlare to advanced research environments such as QuantConnect. Each bot is evaluated on onboarding simplicity, automation depth, coding requirements, and compatibility with major platforms like MT4,...
France's Finance Minister Calls for More Euro Stablecoins in Sign of Government Policy Shift
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure urged the EU banking sector to expand euro‑stablecoins and explore tokenized deposits, backing the Qivalis consortium’s plan to launch a euro‑pegged stablecoin in late 2026. He criticized the current low volume of euro‑stablecoins compared with...
Daily Spotlight: Dollar Surges Amid Iran War
The U.S. dollar has surged 5% since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, pushing it near cycle highs and 19% above its 20‑year average. After a modest 5% decline in 2025, the greenback rebounded as investors fled to safety amid...
G10 FX Talking: Time to Back the Hawkish Central Banks
ING’s latest G10 FX outlook highlights a shift toward real‑rate driven moves as hawkish central banks gain traction. The firm expects the euro to climb to 1.20 against the dollar by year‑end, while the Fed is projected to cut rates...
Latam FX Talking: The Brazilian Real Has Fared Well From the Crisis
ING’s Latin America FX outlook sees the Brazilian real emerging as the region’s top high‑yield currency in 2026. The firm projects USD/BRL falling to 4.50 within a year, translating to an implied 13% annual yield and a real‑effective exchange rate...
FX Talking: Forecast Table
ING’s April 2026 “FX Talking: Forecast Table” delivers a forward‑looking outlook on major currency pairs, outlining expected appreciation and depreciation trends through the next twelve months. The table presents baseline, upside and downside scenarios, integrating macro‑economic variables, commodity price movements and...
What Does Foreign Currency Funding Risk Mean for Markets?
Foreign currency funding risk, especially reliance on U.S. dollar financing, is emerging as a primary driver of global market stability. Unlike gradual interest‑rate moves, funding conditions can tighten abruptly, forcing banks and asset managers to unwind positions and repricing risk....
Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions in China, Indonesia, Philippines and Key Data From Japan and Korea
Asian central banks are set to announce key policy moves next week. China is expected to leave its loan prime rates unchanged despite stronger‑than‑expected Q1 GDP, while Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia will likely keep rates steady as inflation hovers around 3.5%....
BOJ Must Take Into Account Japan’s Low Real Rates in Setting Policy, Governor Ueda Says
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said any rate‑hike decision must factor Japan’s persistently low real interest rates. He warned that inflation is being driven by a negative supply shock, notably higher oil prices, which is harder to curb with monetary policy....
Wall Street Turns Gloomy on the Dollar as Haven Demand Fades
Wall Street’s optimism for the dollar’s safe‑haven status is fading as a tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran reduces war‑driven risk aversion. Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo argue the greenback’s rally, fueled by geopolitical tension, is likely over. Investors...
RBI Asks State Oil Refiners to Curb Spot Dollar Buying, Sources Say
The Reserve Bank of India has asked state‑run oil refiners—Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp—to curb spot‑dollar purchases and instead draw on a special credit line administered by the State Bank of India. The move revives...
Keeping High-Touch FX Execution Efficient, Transparent, and Connected
Automation has streamlined routine FX trades, but a sizable share of orders still demand high‑touch handling. Complex swaps, large sizes, and illiquid pairs often bypass electronic venues, forcing traders to negotiate, stage fills, and use manual tools. Disconnected workflows—spreadsheets, chats,...
ECB Minutes Suggest Governing Council May Need More Evidence Before Raising Rates
The European Central Bank’s latest meeting minutes reveal that the governing council is reluctant to raise interest rates without clearer evidence that inflation pressures are persisting. Officials highlighted mixed data on price growth, especially in services, and stressed the need...
Europe's Successes and the Path Forward
Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board member, highlighted that the euro area has restored macro stability, with inflation back at target and steady real GDP growth since 2017, while financial markets have become more integrated and banks have improved capital ratios...
On My Mind: The $ Is Dead, Long Live the $
The article challenges the growing narrative that the U.S. dollar is in rapid decline, arguing that its dominance remains underpinned by deep capital markets, institutional credibility, and the sheer scale of the U.S. economy. Recent Deutsche Bank research linking Middle‑East conflict...
Meeting of 18-19 March 2026
The ECB Governing Council met on 18‑19 March 2026 and flagged a sharp uptick in inflation risk after the Middle‑East war drove Brent crude above $100 a barrel and pushed European gas prices up 52%. Market participants now price roughly...
Circle CEO Sees ‘Tremendous Opportunity’ for Yuan Stablecoin Despite China Curbs
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters that a yuan‑backed stablecoin could be issued within three to five years, presenting a “tremendous opportunity” for China to export its currency. He contrasted this prospect with Beijing’s recent crackdown that declares offshore issuance...
Dollar Dominance Is Surviving the Iran War – Just About
The Iran‑Israel war has not eroded the U.S. dollar’s global dominance, as the greenback rose about 2% against a basket of currencies and U.S. asset markets performed relatively well. The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed 35 basis points to 4.3%, a...
ECB Minutes From March Meeting Confirm Hawkish Pivot
The European Central Bank’s March minutes confirm a hawkish pivot, yet the Governing Council signals no rush to tighten policy further. Officials highlighted downside risks to growth from the Middle East conflict and upside risks to inflation, especially via stronger...