CME Group Benchmark Administration Deploys Repo Funds Rate US Dollar for Customer Testing
CME Group Benchmark Administration (CBA) has launched the Repo Funds Rate U.S. Dollar (RFR USD) in its New Release environment for customer testing. The rate is a volume‑weighted median of overnight repo trades on the BrokerTec CLOB, using both specific and general collateral. RFR USD will be published each BrokerTec U.S. business day at roughly 3:30 p.m. ET and is available for subscription via CME DataMine and Market Data Platform 3.0 channel 261. The rollout marks another step in the industry’s shift toward risk‑free reference rates.
Dollar Rises as US–Iran Stalemate Lift Oil Prices, Euro Hit by Weak Outlook
The U.S. dollar rose as oil prices climbed amid a lingering US‑Iran maritime standoff and a three‑week Israel‑Hezbollah ceasefire extension that failed to ease geopolitical risk. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation expectations, reinforcing a higher‑for‑longer rate outlook and safe‑haven...
War and Sanctions Accelerate China’s Currency Push
China is accelerating its long‑term effort to internationalize the renminbi as a way to sidestep U.S. sanctions. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have pushed Russia, Iran and other sanctioned economies toward yuan‑denominated trade, giving Beijing a foothold in de‑dollarization....
Japanese Inflation Quickened in March, Complicating Bank of Japan Outlook
Japan’s consumer price index accelerated to 1.5% year‑on‑year in March, outpacing the 1.4% market forecast, while core inflation excluding fresh food rose to 1.8% – the first increase in five months. The uptick reflects broader price pressures from goods and...
ECB's Nagel Says Trump's Fed Attacks Caused Flight to Safety
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve are prompting a flight to safety. Bundesbank research shows the rhetoric has lowered Treasury yields, depressed equity prices, boosted gold and weakened the dollar....
Derivative Path, Baton Systems Collaborate to Enable Regional Banks to Scale FX Services with Greater Liquidity Efficiency
Derivative Path and Baton Systems have partnered to launch an integrated FX payments and nostro management platform aimed at regional and mid‑market banks. The cloud‑native, API‑first solution combines Derivative Path’s multi‑liquidity connectivity with Baton’s real‑time risk and settlement orchestration, giving...
OANDA Japan to Hike FX and CFD Margin Rates, Certain Positions to Be Transferred to MT5
OANDA Japan will raise margin rates on its Tokyo MT4 server effective June 12, 2026, moving most FX contracts to a uniform 10% margin and doubling margins on stock‑index and commodity CFDs. Accounts with a margin maintenance ratio below 200% will be...
Dollar Reasserts Itself As Global Tensions Shift Currency Markets
After a year of decline, the U.S. dollar rallied 2.5% against the euro and yen in early March, reaching a 3% gain versus the euro by March 16. The surge was sparked by the United States’ military offensive against Iran, which...
Japan Finance Minister Katayama Delivers Another Intervention Warning
Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama warned that the government retains a "free hand" to intervene in the foreign‑exchange market as the USD/JPY pair edges toward the 160 level. He highlighted past interventions that produced immediate moves but were short‑lived, citing...
Understanding Currency Debasement: Definition and Historical Examples
Currency debasement describes the reduction of a money unit’s intrinsic worth, traditionally by alloying precious‑metal coins with cheaper metals. In modern economies the concept extends to fiat systems where governments expand the money supply without matching output, effectively diluting value....
BSP Tightens Policy in the Philippines as Inflation Surge Overrides Growth Concerns
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on April 23, responding to a sharp jump in inflation. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.1% year‑over‑year in March, pushing core inflation to 3.2% and breaching the...
Xi Jinping Wants a Powerful Currency. America’s War Has Helped
Chinese President Xi Jinping is accelerating efforts to turn the yuan into a global reserve and payment currency, with the digital e‑CNY at the forefront of the strategy. The United States’ costly overseas conflicts have strained the dollar’s dominance, indirectly...
Rupee Slides 34 Paise to 94.12 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee slipped to 94.12 per U.S. dollar, marking a fourth straight session of depreciation. The decline was amplified by a 1.37% rise in Brent crude to $103.31 a barrel and heightened geopolitical tension in West Asia. Foreign institutional...
Rupee May Weaken Past 94, Oil Surge Wipes Large Part of Relief Rally
The Indian rupee is poised to slip past the 94 per‑dollar mark as oil prices rebound above $100 a barrel, eroding the brief relief rally that saw the currency recover to 92.5 earlier this month. Traders expect the rupee to...
Bessent Says 'Many' U.S. Allies Have Asked for Currency Swaps Amid Iran War Turbulence
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Senate appropriations hearing that many Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, have asked for dollar‑denominated currency swap lines to offset the economic shock from the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A swap line would provide...
Caution at MPC as War Muddies View
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary‑policy committee left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% after its April 6‑8 meeting, citing persistent supply‑chain disruptions from the West Asia conflict. Minutes reveal that inflation is expected to rise, but the surge is...
Rates Spark: Swap Lines Imply some Pressure
The market has eased from earlier fears that a frozen Strait of Hormuz would cripple oil supplies, yet oil prices remain elevated as the closure persists and Iran refuses to negotiate without a US blockade lift. Bond yields are inching...
Petroyuan Will Mature in Bursts of Crisis
The petroyuan – oil trades settled in Chinese yuan – is gaining traction not through a slow ideological shift but via crisis‑driven operational choices. Recent Indian and African transactions show firms opting for yuan when U.S. sanctions or routing constraints...
Turkish Central Bank Holds Rates, Remaining Cautious
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its 1‑week repo rate at 37% and left the 450‑basis‑point interest‑rate corridor unchanged. A surge in foreign‑exchange reserves added roughly $20 bn in April, lifting gross reserves to about $175 bn and net reserves to $38.6 bn....
Rupee Extends Losing Streak as Iran War Jitters Lift Oil to $100
The Indian rupee slipped for a third straight session, closing at 93.7950, down 0.3% and hovering near a three‑week low. Brent crude breached $100 a barrel after renewed Iran‑related tensions, pulling regional equities lower, including a 0.9% drop in the...
Bank Indonesia Holds Rates, Prioritises Rupiah Stability
Bank Indonesia left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, matching market expectations, as fuel subsidies keep inflation near 3.5% and reduce the need for a hawkish stance. The central bank highlighted rupiah stability, noting the currency remains undervalued and...
America First Fed? Trump Nominee Kevin Warsh Signals ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Push: Analysts
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, signaled a shift toward “monetary sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic productivity and tighter control of the Fed’s balance sheet. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, he pledged to work with the Treasury to...
The Real Cost of Sending Money Abroad: What You Need To Look Out For
International money transfers that advertise "no fees" often hide costs in the exchange‑rate spread, which can add 1%‑6% to the transaction. The gap between the mid‑market rate and the provider’s quoted rate can turn a £1,000 transfer into a loss...
Philip R. Lane: Expanding the Supply of Euro Safe Assets
In a Frankfurt keynote, ECB Executive Board member Philip R. Lane warned that the euro area suffers from a chronic undersupply of euro‑denominated safe assets, with German Bunds alone too small to meet global demand. He outlined reforms that have...
Christopher J Waller: Modernising Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller outlined a roadmap to modernize the Fed’s operational backbone. He traced the system’s shift from a fully decentralized, paper‑centric model to today’s hybrid where payments, IT and fiscal‑agency work are already centralized. Waller proposed...
The Role of AI in Modern Forex Bot Development
Artificial intelligence is reshaping forex bot development, moving from static rule‑based scripts to adaptive, data‑driven systems. Modern bots leverage machine learning, natural language processing, deep learning, and reinforcement learning to parse massive market data and react in real time. This...
Olli Rehn: Geopolitical Turmoil and the Eurozone
Olli Rehn, the European Central Bank’s vice‑president, warned that the war in Iran and broader Middle‑East turmoil are delivering a negative terms‑of‑trade shock to the euro area, pushing inflation higher and slowing GDP growth. He reaffirmed the ECB’s medium‑term strategy...
UK Inflation Heads Towards 4%, but Rate Hikes Off the Table for Now
UK headline CPI rose to 3.3% in March, with core services inflation holding at 4.2%. Energy price forecasts—oil at $90‑$100 per barrel and natural gas around €55 (≈$60) per MWh—suggest inflation will hover between 3.5% and 4% through the second...
JP Morgan Stays Bearish on the Japanese Yen Amid Higher Energy Prices
JP Morgan maintains a medium‑ to long‑term bearish outlook on the Japanese yen as higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict strain Japan’s import‑dependent economy. The firm cites widening trade deficits and rising cost‑push inflation as key drivers of yen...
ECB Policymaker Kazāks Says Not in a Rush to Make a Move on Monetary Policy
ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazāks told investors that, despite heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, the central bank sees no immediate need to raise interest rates. He emphasized the "luxury" of time to collect more data before deciding...
Japan Exports Beat but Rising Import Costs Squeeze Trade Surplus
Japan’s March trade data showed exports rising 11.7% year‑on‑year, led by a 17.7% jump in shipments to China and modest growth to the United States. Imports surged 10.9% YoY, driven largely by higher energy costs, pushing the trade surplus down...
China Exporters Beset by Yuan Surge Look to Sell Dollar Rallies
Chinese exporters are grappling with a rapid yuan appreciation that has eroded profit margins on overseas orders. Gloria Yu, a bicycle parts supplier, reported heavy losses after the currency surged earlier this year and is now seeking ways to manage...
Ringgit Opens Almost Flat Against Greenback as US Extends Ceasefire with Iran
The Malaysian ringgit opened virtually unchanged at around RM3.95 per US dollar as traders digested the United States’ decision to extend its cease‑fire with Iran. Crude oil prices surged, with WTI up 2.57% to $89.67 a barrel and Brent 3.74%...
Dollar at Week High as Markets Raise Doubts over Iran Ceasefire
The U.S. dollar steadied in early Asian trade, climbing to a one‑week high of 98.415 on the dollar index as doubts resurfaced over President Trump’s indefinite Iran cease‑fire extension. The uncertainty revived safe‑haven demand for the greenback, while a slightly...
Central Bank Independence: An Update
Recent research reviewed by Eijffinger and de Haan (2026) confirms that while legal independence reduces inflation, it does not shield central banks from political interference. Studies show that roughly 10% of central banks experience annual political pressure, and 39% have...
Warsh Signals Evolution, Not Revolution at the Fed
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony highlighted a push for gradual, not radical, changes at the Federal Reserve. He reiterated long‑held criticism of the Fed’s oversized balance sheet and advocated slow, predictable reductions while relying on interest‑rate tools rather than balance‑sheet adjustments....
BOJ to Skip Rate Hike Next Week; June Seen as Next Window
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% during the April 28 meeting, postponing any further tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda cited recent disruptions to Middle‑East oil supplies as a key factor, seeking more data on...
Taking Bank of Korea Helm, Crisis-Era Veteran Pursues Ambitious Won Overhaul
Shin Hyun Song, a veteran economist who warned of the 2008 crisis, has taken over as governor of the Bank of Korea. He unveiled an ambitious plan to internationalize the won, including round‑the‑clock FX trading and an offshore settlement system,...
Peter Kažimír: Transformation, Integration and the New Frontier of Monetary Policy
Peter Kažimír outlined Slovakia’s three‑decade journey from a post‑communist economy to a stable euro‑zone member. He emphasized that macro‑economic stability, openness, and a credible central bank were prerequisites for growth, and that banking reforms were critical to transmit policy. The...
FX Daily: Dollar to Weigh up Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is set to dominate U.S. monetary policy headlines, with markets expecting a dovish stance on rates and a hawkish approach to the Fed’s balance‑sheet reduction. A potential Iranian delegation to peace talks in Pakistan is...
Geopolitics and FX Cloud Treasury Outlook - Weekly Roundup: 21 April
Treasury teams are feeling heightened pressure from geopolitics, with 88% of respondents expressing moderate to high concern, prompting a defensive shift toward money‑market funds and early AI adoption for cash forecasting. European banks see digital assets as a modest threat,...
PH Dollar Deficit Swells to over One-Year High on Middle East Crisis
In March 2026 the Philippines recorded a $2.6 billion balance‑of‑payments deficit, the widest since January 2025, as soaring energy prices tied to the Middle‑East crisis forced higher dollar outflows. The first‑quarter gap widened to $5.3 billion, 79% higher than a year earlier,...
Why the BIS Is Worried About Stablecoins
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that the stablecoin market’s concentration—dominated by Tether and Circle, which together hold about 85% of the $315 billion supply—poses systemic risks. BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos called for stronger international regulatory coordination to...
Oil Shock Muddies Rate Path, but Loonie Seen Gaining Ground: TD Economics
TD Economics warns that renewed oil market turbulence is reviving inflation risks, keeping bond yields above pre‑crisis levels and clouding the path for central‑bank rate cuts. The firm expects the Canadian dollar to benefit from a narrowing US‑Canada rate gap,...
François Villeroy De Galhau: One Year on - Why the Transatlantic Partnership Remains of Mutual Interest
In a speech to the Atlantic Council, French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the global economy proved more resilient than expected over the past year. Global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing the 2.8% forecast, while...
BOJ Likely to Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged in April - Report
Japan’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April policy meeting, as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict weighs on decision‑making. Traders currently assign only about a 15% probability to an April hike, though odds climb...
USDJPY Erases Friday's Losses on Renewed US-Iran Tensions as Ceasefire Deadline Nears
The USDJPY pair erased Friday's losses as U.S. President Trump reaffirmed the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting traders to hedge ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. The pair bounced off the 158.00 support level, with buyers targeting the 162.00 handle,...
Andrew Bailey: Central Bank Independence – in Need of Further Thinking
Andrew Bailey argues that the traditional notion of central‑bank independence (CBI) is outdated, especially as banks now juggle both monetary and financial‑stability mandates. He traces CBI’s roots from 19th‑century ideas of aligned interests to the post‑1970s statutory frameworks that anchor...
Capital.com Client Trading Volumes Hit Record $1.27 Trillion in Q1 2026 Led by MENA, Gold
Capital.com reported a record $1.27 trillion in client trading volume for Q1 2026, an 11.2% increase from the previous quarter. The number of trades jumped 81% year‑on‑year, driven by gold’s record‑high prices, volatile crypto markets, and heightened oil volatility amid Middle‑East conflict....
China’s Lending Benchmark Stability Prompts Asian Markets Growth
China’s core lending benchmark, the 7‑day repo rate, has held steady at 2.5% for the third consecutive month, reinforcing liquidity in the country’s banking system. The stability has encouraged investors to increase exposure to Asian equities, driving a 1.8% rally...