Iran Declares Hormuz Open, IRGC Hints Otherwise
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
US Weapon Supply Hinges on Chinese Components Despite Oil Strikes
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
Orban Faces Public Pushback, Rumors of Coup
Hungarians want to kick Viktor Orban out of power. Is he planning a coup to stop them? From @dailytelegraph https://t.co/WK4P4gz7nL
Iran Leadership Change Fuels Heightened US‑Iran Tensions
1/ Update on middle east tensions & their market impact : - Iran's Supreme leader is dead , new leadership will take charge soon (likely today) - IRGC announced to hit America & Israel today in the most intense way - Trump responded...
Day Two of US‑Israeli‑Iran Conflict Amid Leader’s Death
U.S.-Israeli War With Iran Enters Day Two U.S.-Israeli strike and Iranian retaliation continues amid new uncertainly with the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death. Live updates: https://t.co/XsF2d0NJAY
IRGC Closes Strait of Hormuz, Threatening 20% Oil Flow
🚨 IRAN WAR UPDATE — MARCH 1, 2026 🚨 Khamenei is confirmed dead by Iranian state media. But the bigger story: the IRGC has formally closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping firms are instructing vessels to shelter in place. About 20%...
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
U.S. Has Been War‑Gaming Iran Regime Collapse for Months
If you think the United States has not conducted months of war gaming and scenario analysis of the fall of the regime, the potential successors or power structures that step into the Ayatollah’s and Mullah void. You are not serious....
Defense Production Outpaces Auto, Drives Truck Freight
US automotive production is $180B. US defense manufacturing is $220B. Don’t understimate the impact of defense production on American trucking freight.
Jeff Sachs: US Has Just Stepped Into Trouble over Iran
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
North Korea's Nuclear Push Shows Strategic Resilience
north korea looking a lot smarter for developing nuclear weapons despite all the international opposition and pressure.
Teams Outage Marks Historic Intelligence Breakthrough
The loss of access to Microsoft Teams is gonna go down in history as one of the most consequential intelligence actions of all time
US Deploys Iranian‑Style Kamikaze Drones in Combat
U.S. Military Has Used Long-Range Kamikaze Drones In Combat For The First Time America's clone of Iran's Shahed-136 had been used against Iran in an ironic vignette of modern drone warfare. https://t.co/TUY72CkNm5
Cutting Iran's Remote Work: Teams Access Blocked
The most important strategic strike on Iran was denying them access to seamless remote work with Microsoft Teams
Iran’s Claims Debunked: No U.S. Casualties or Ship Hits
No Pentagon calls or pressers today. But Centcom is pushing back on various claims here:
UN Outlines Necessity of Operation Epic Fury
United Nations right now @michaelgwaltz explaining the many reasons why Operation Epic Fury was/is absolutely necessary @FoxNews https://t.co/dbssW9Qdx1
AI Military Procurement Needs Formal Collaboration, Not Competitive Bidding
not an expert, but impo, ai use in military/govt should be decided through a more formal collaborative process, not through public contract negotiations pitting private companies against each other
Military Must Rapidly Adopt Ukraine’s Defensive Lessons
Watching our military operate, no one can doubt our offensive operational excellence. But what I see against our bases today, and risks we accepted before today, our military must do more ASAP to institutionalize defensive lessons from Ukraine and experienced...
U.S.-Israel Dominance Reshapes Middle East Power Balance
american and israel military escalation dominance is the most important geopolitical story in the middle east post-october 7. no ability of iran or its proxies to counter strikes against them. and nobody willing or capable to support them outside the...
Massive Decapitation Strike Cripples Iranian Command Structure
More than 40 senior Iranian security and regime figures were killed in the opening strikes this morning. Add that to the more than 30 senior military leaders Israel killed during the 12 day war. Psychological and real impact to command...
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Midday Launch Driven by Urgent Time‑sensitive Intelligence
Getting asked a lot why this kicked off mid day and not at night. I don't know for certain, but everything points to moving up a timeline based on time sensitive intelligence. Limitations to doing this for a large bi-national...
First Look: Black Tomahawk Missile Deployed in Iran Strikes
Black Tomahawk Cruise Missile Seen For The First Time In Strikes On Iran We may have gotten our first look at the Maritime Strike Tomahawk, and the missile appears to share the same coating as another Navy anti-ship weapon. https://t.co/4emKSQqRkJ
B‑2 Night Strikes Will Redefine Air Campaign
B-2s will likely show up tonight, making direct attacks on key targets in a way no other platform can. Yes this could include MOPs, but also lots of JDAMs against less fortified targets. They can achieve massive effects in a...
Israel's Power Play Threatens Regional Stability, Not US Interests
This is not about Irans nuclear weapons program, it is about establishing Israel as the sole regional power. None of this is in the U.S.' national security interests, and giving Netanyahu more power will not bring stability to Iran or...
US Turns Iran‑Made Shahed Drones Against Tehran
Return to sender style. Iran provided Russia w/ thousands of these types of drones to attack mainly Ukrainian civilian sites in the last 4 years (Russia now produces them and continues attacking civilian sites). Irony, U.S. sends the type back...
Khameini Eliminated, 30 Military Leaders Killed; Thanks Israel
Confirmed that Khameini was eliminated, along with thirty others who ran their military this morning. Thank you, Israel. https://t.co/pnHjrO3s4n
Iranian Frigate Burns After First Confirmed Warship Loss
Iranian Frigate Seen Ablaze After Being Struck In Port The imagery represents the first confirmed heavy damage or loss of Iranian warship as part of Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion. https://t.co/rBqi4wloja
Intelligence Warns: Fill Tanks; Energy Sites Likely Terrorist Targets
Spoke with a senior intelligence official that recommended everyone top their tanks off, not due to a known threat, but the high probability that energy assets are prime targets for terrorists.
Strait of Hormuz Status Threatens Shipping and Consumers
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? ▶️Danger to Shipping ▶️US and UK Waring ▶️Impact for Consumers ▶️Other Factors Impacting Global Tanker Market ▶️Is US Sealift & Afloat Prepositioning Moving? Video: https://t.co/SgdGJdWaSD https://t.co/Cvj3mRaiq7
Iranian Drone Strike Hits Near Dubai's Burj Khalifa, Evacuations Ordered
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
General’s Anger Reveals Army’s Logistical Limits, No Invasion Fleet
Major General is just pissed off because he knows the Army is taking a back seat. You may “know more about war than Donald Trump” but you also know the Army can’t invade a nation of that size without a large...
CENTCOM Confirms LUCAS Drone Used in Iran Attack
CENTCOM confirms use of LUCAS drone in Iran attack. You can learn about these weapons in a story from back in December by me and @FranticGoat
U.S. Forces Repel Hundreds of Iranian Missiles, No Casualties
U.S. officials: "Following the initial wave of U.S. and partner strikes, CENTCOM forces successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks. There have been no reports of U.S. casualties or combat-related injuries."
Israel Launches Historic Massive Joint Airstrike on Iran
"This is the largest strike sortie in the history of the Israeli Air Force, executed after close planning with high-quality intelligence, synchronizing hundreds of aircraft simultaneously," ... and synchronized with U.S. airstrikes ... historic joint military operation.
US and Israel Launch Assault on Iran
American and Israeli military forces have launched a broad spectrum military assault against the the state of Iran with the intent of defending its military and overthrowing its government. Here's where we stand. #iran #war #geopolitics https://t.co/coZbHlYFIc
Iran's Future Hinges on Strike Severity and Regime Damage
Lots of scenarios on polymarket on how today’s developments in Iran will play out.. How this unfolds will depend on the extent, intensity, and longevity of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and, crucially, the damage inflicted not just on physical...
Starlink's $1B Ukraine Deal Sparks Renewed Debate
Seems like we had this debate before re Starlink and Ukraine...so how does it play into the DoW's ~$1B per year contract with Starlink? https://t.co/vRYy6SwnTe
Navy Admits Limited Gulf Protection; 21M Barrels at Risk
US Navy says it can't protect all merchant ships in Persian Gulf. Oil majors just suspended shipments through Hormuz, 21M barrels/day at risk. Maritime risk. https://t.co/TylGxcJUhz
Insights on Iran's Missile Depth and Upcoming Retaliation
Follow @business live blog to keep up with latest on Iran -- including my thoughts on Iran's missile depth and the next wave of retaliatory attacks: https://t.co/Qj6mQWHfhF https://t.co/47cxeZWgl3
Iran's S‑300s Lack Radars, Rendering Them Ineffective
A few weeks ago @sam_lair noticed that Iran was deploying S-300s with no radars. A SAM with no radar is useless unless you can network data — and we know Iran doesn’t do that either.
Shipping Risk Soars as 750 Vessels Trapped in Hormuz
Shipping security risk increases dramatically in Persian Gulf Over 750 commercial vessels reported to be inside the Strait of Hormuz as the US and Israel attack Iran https://t.co/Z0VKTvJgQ8
New IRGC Commander Killed in Israeli Strike
Significant if true. IRGC commander was new to the job since Israel killed the last one during the 12 day war.
Iran Bans Hormuz Traffic, yet Tankers Still Sail
Iran is sending out warnings on VHF announcing the banning of all ships from the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic is still moving. What's Going on with Shipping will be monitoring traffic through the Strait. https://t.co/0rPIFY825Q
US Tomahawk Depletion Threatens Future China Conflict Readiness
US destroyers launched Tomahawks at Iranian targets, but here’s the problem: America doesn’t have unlimited TLAMs. The Trump admin burned through big numbers in earlier strikes on Iran, Houthis, and Nigeria without replenishing stockpiles. TLAMs would be vital in a...
Fireboats Essential when Naval Base Water Infrastructure Fails
The problem with fighting fires on naval bases after an attack is the same power-plants, fuel and pumping facilities targeted also supply firefighting water. And even if the water mains survive fighting fires on multiple fronts consumes more water than any...
Trump’s Iran Threats Spark Retaliation, Oil Surge, Prolonged Conflict
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
Iran’s Missile Reach Limited by Rebuilt Stockpiles
Iran’s initial response was fast: SRBMs hit US bases in the Gulf. Strikes on far bases like Jordan require MRBMs — as do strikes on Israel. Further retaliation and scale of damage hinge on stockpile depth: what was rebuilt after...
Military Barred From Top Defense Think Tanks, Limiting Expertise
Deeply disappointing to see that many of our top defense-related think tanks are now off-limits to our military’s officers. I would never have gotten to where I am as a China analyst without my time as a military fellow at @cnasdc,...
F‑15C Launches with AIM‑7s, Likely Counter‑drone Sortie
Video shows F-15C Bazs taking off on a sortie for today's operation. It is armed with AIM-7 Sparrows, not uncommon for IAFs F-15A-Ds. Still, a bit odd for the general mission. It also does not have external tanks. Possibly on...