Defense Social Media and Updates

Airstrikes Alone Won’t Overthrow Iran’s Regime
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Airstrikes Alone Won’t Overthrow Iran’s Regime

Frankly, I don’t see how the Ayatollah regime could be toppled, even through the most extensive and devastating bombing campaign, without boots on the ground and a full-scale occupation of a vast country of 90 million people. Especially after Trump allowed...

By Illia Ponomarenko
Unconfirmed Strikes Target Iranian Naval Bases, Preempt Mining Threat
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Unconfirmed Strikes Target Iranian Naval Bases, Preempt Mining Threat

There are unconfirmed reports that major Iranian Navy/IRGC Navy bases on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea have been hit. This would make perfect sense to preempt a mining operation and/or attempted closure of the strait.

By Tyler Rogoway
Iranian Strikes Target Air Defenses Ahead of Night Flights
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Iranian Strikes Target Air Defenses Ahead of Night Flights

Strikes are occurring at sites throughout Iran. While these are likely targeting some time sensitive targets, many of these strikes would be used to prepare for aircraft operations over Iran. In other words, degrading and destroying what's left of Iran's...

By Tyler Rogoway
Israel Secures Air Supremacy, Gains Insight on Russian‑Chinese Defenses
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Israel Secures Air Supremacy, Gains Insight on Russian‑Chinese Defenses

Israel achieved air supremacy over Iran in about the first 10-24 hours of the 12 day war. Not a single aircraft or pilot lost. Thanks to Israel, not only was there a great amount of air defenses destroyed, but there...

By John Spencer
Future Doctrine: Maneuver as Rare, Deliberate, Protected Operation
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Future Doctrine: Maneuver as Rare, Deliberate, Protected Operation

“Old doctrine assumes maneuver is the default way to fight. Future doctrine should treat it as a rare, deliberate act that is planned, resourced, and protected.” https://t.co/U0K4HrDClf

By Franz‑Stefan Gady
US Presence Could Enable 1,000+ Daily Middle East Sorties
SocialFeb 28, 2026

US Presence Could Enable 1,000+ Daily Middle East Sorties

In the 12-Day War, Israel conducted roughly 1,000 sorties and struck more than 900 targets in Iran. For comparison, during Operation Desert Storm, the U.S.-led coalition flew approximately 2,200 sorties in the first 24 hours and more than 116,000 sorties...

By John Spencer
Israel Launches Preemptive Strike Against Iran
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Israel Launches Preemptive Strike Against Iran

Iran Is Under Attack Israel has stuck Iran in what it is calling a "preemptive attack." Rolling coverage, updating in real time: https://t.co/giuwrpAOfR

By Tyler Rogoway
Interceptor Stockpiles Dictate Middle East Precision Strike Outcomes
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Interceptor Stockpiles Dictate Middle East Precision Strike Outcomes

Any strike campaign in the Middle East employing precision-guided munitions will be shaped by the United States’ and Israel’s interceptor stockpiles and magazine depth. As @AmosFox6 and I like to say, you may not be interested in attrition, but attrition...

By Franz‑Stefan Gady
Iran’s Leaders Questioned as Air Defenses Remain Unclear
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Iran’s Leaders Questioned as Air Defenses Remain Unclear

Was Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei, President, senior leaders targeted tonight? Where was Iran’s air defenses? Not recovered after the 12 day war?

By John Spencer
AI Is Critical Infrastructure; Anthropic's Permission Request Flawed
SocialFeb 28, 2026

AI Is Critical Infrastructure; Anthropic's Permission Request Flawed

Ok, so now the truth comes out. The USA needs AI for critical systems to protect America. Anthropic wanted the US Gov to call them and ask nicely for permission in case of an emergency. As I keep saying. AI is...

By Nathan Lands
Chinese Drones Plausible, Hypersonics Doubtful; Markets See Calm
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Chinese Drones Plausible, Hypersonics Doubtful; Markets See Calm

Reports of Chinese drones to Iran are plausible But talk of hypersonics is a leap. If true, I see little effect for the present Iran crisis Markets agree with Brent rolling into contango. This looks like calibrated support, not crisis-altering escalation https://t.co/x606IhOrev #Iran...

By Art Berman Blog
US‑Iran Tensions Heighten Rare Earth Supply Scrutiny
SocialFeb 28, 2026

US‑Iran Tensions Heighten Rare Earth Supply Scrutiny

The potential U.S. conflict with Iran will create an interesting dilemma regarding weapons re-arming and supply chains. Rare earth elements will come under even greater scrutiny, especially given the already strained trade relationship with China.

By Haplo
AI Firm Secures Safety‑First Deal with Department of War
SocialFeb 28, 2026

AI Firm Secures Safety‑First Deal with Department of War

Tonight, we reached an agreement with the Department of War to deploy our models in their classified network. In all of our interactions, the DoW displayed a deep respect for safety and a desire to partner to achieve the best possible...

By Sam Altman
Advocating Autonomous AI Weapons Amid Unfair Warfare
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Advocating Autonomous AI Weapons Amid Unfair Warfare

Personal view: I admire @AnthropicAI sticking by their principles but disagree with the principle itself. Putin won’t fight fair so we should have autonomous AI weapons for sure.

By Vinod Khosla
War Dept Flags Company Risk on X Before Notification
SocialFeb 28, 2026

War Dept Flags Company Risk on X Before Notification

the Secretary of War announced a supply chain risk designation against an American company… on X… before telling the company https://t.co/u4gAaIwX2L

By Deirdre Bosa
AI-Powered Analysis of Anthropic vs Pentagon Dispute
SocialFeb 28, 2026

AI-Powered Analysis of Anthropic vs Pentagon Dispute

Anthropic vs Pentagon. The report of what X is saying about it. New kind of analysis and curation thanks to AI. https://t.co/64izWKFVWC

By Robert Scoble
US Air Refueling Boosts Israel's Fighter Effectiveness Against Iran
SocialFeb 28, 2026

US Air Refueling Boosts Israel's Fighter Effectiveness Against Iran

Israel’s Fighter Force Stands To Be Far More Effective With Full USAF Tanker Support In A War With Iran https://t.co/wX9ErK4zHX

By Tyler Rogoway
Trump Warns Iran: Too Dangerous for Nuclear Weapons
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Trump Warns Iran: Too Dangerous for Nuclear Weapons

Very dangerous people that can never be allowed to get a nuclear weapon or missiles to target the United States or our allies.

By John Spencer
Low Moon Illumination;
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Low Moon Illumination;

85.5% moon tonight. Far from ideal. Prime window opens back half of March. Just another indicator not a showstopper. https://t.co/7gx76w2wrn

By Tyler Rogoway
OpenAI and VCs Will Fill Military AI Void
SocialFeb 27, 2026

OpenAI and VCs Will Fill Military AI Void

If anthropic doesn’t want to do military tech, you can be sure that OpenAI (or another foundational model), will bend over backwards to provide whatever the department of war wants. And the department of war/defense doesn’t need to accept any...

By Jason Calacanis
Corporate Control of AI Threatens National Sovereignty
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Corporate Control of AI Threatens National Sovereignty

People don’t get it. AI is becoming critical infrastructure. It will power defense, finance, intelligence, everything. If a private company can decide how the U.S. government is allowed to use it, that’s not ethics. That’s corporate leverage over a sovereign nation.

By Nathan Lands
Europe's Drone Wall Mirrors Maginot Line Folly
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Europe's Drone Wall Mirrors Maginot Line Folly

Is Europe's proposed 'Drone Wall' the aerial equivalent of the Maginot Line? Exclusive analysis in March 2026 AEROSPACE #drones #NATO #Ukraine https://t.co/cWQRnTWlQr https://t.co/diKSD4Xblb

By Tim Robinson
Palantir Inherits Anthropic’s AI Gap, Lacks Replacement
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Palantir Inherits Anthropic’s AI Gap, Lacks Replacement

This isn’t just an Anthropic problem anymore… it’s a Palantir problem, and theres no like-for-like replacement ready Claude powers their most sensitive classified work

By Deirdre Bosa
Pakistan’s “Open War” Claim Masks Limited Cross‑border Strikes
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Pakistan’s “Open War” Claim Masks Limited Cross‑border Strikes

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared his country to be in “open war” with Afghanistan on Friday, following a series of cross-border strikes between the two neighbors. The reality is more muted. While the Pakistani military is currently conducting strikes against...

By Peter Zeihan
LOCUST Laser Downs CPB Drone, Echoing El Paso Strike
SocialFeb 27, 2026

LOCUST Laser Downs CPB Drone, Echoing El Paso Strike

A small CPB drone was shot down by a LOCUST laser system, similiar to what was used in El Paso earlier this month. https://t.co/QyYmTED5Zq

By Howard Altman
DPA Becomes Trump Admin’s Go‑to
SocialFeb 27, 2026

DPA Becomes Trump Admin’s Go‑to

As the DoD vs. Anthropic deadline looms, its unclear which DPA authorities may be used. But DPA has emerged as a favorite tool for the Trump admin -- from taking equity stakes to compelling an AI leader, with defense tech...

By Becca Wasser
Border Patrol’s Small Drone Accidentally Shot Down by Laser
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Border Patrol’s Small Drone Accidentally Shot Down by Laser

Drone That LOCUST Laser Shot Down On Border Was Small And Belonged To The Border Patrol The accidental shoot-down comes two weeks after a major airspace closure was prompted by the use of a laser weapon along the border. https://t.co/oIROt7ecXr

By Tyler Rogoway
Orbán Deploys Troops, Labels Ukraine Threat to Energy
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Orbán Deploys Troops, Labels Ukraine Threat to Energy

PM Viktor Orbán has deployed troops & police to protect Hungary’s critical energy infrastructure. Orbán cites an alleged "oil blockade" & "blackmail" from Ukraine. It’s as clear as the nose on your face that Hungary, a member of NATO, views Ukraine as...

By Steve Hanke
OpenAI Partners Pentagon on Guarded Classified AI Model
SocialFeb 27, 2026

OpenAI Partners Pentagon on Guarded Classified AI Model

sam altman says openai is working with the pentagon to find a classified-use model that keeps safety guardrails — a de-escalation pitch following anthropic’s standoff over battlefield applications.

By Ian Bremmer
Jargon‑Heavy X Threads Mask Inexpertise—Verify Sources
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Jargon‑Heavy X Threads Mask Inexpertise—Verify Sources

Big thing I am seeing on X is super authoritative sounding accounts doing long threads, on defense tech etc, that use tons of jargon and acronyms so as to look like the account is 'in the know,' when really they...

By Tyler Rogoway
We Skip Unverified Items; Most OSINT Reports Are Fake
SocialFeb 27, 2026

We Skip Unverified Items; Most OSINT Reports Are Fake

We get asked a lot why we didn't add this item or that item to our update posts, the answer is usually because we couldn't confirm it or can't even get to a point where we can say it's potentially...

By Tyler Rogoway
US Tankers Depart; Citizens Urged to Exit Israel
SocialFeb 27, 2026

US Tankers Depart; Citizens Urged to Exit Israel

Tankers Vacate Al Udeid Air Base As U.S. Citizens Are Urged To Leave Israel Immediately With negotiations floundering and the USS Gerald R. Ford about to arrive off Israel, the window for a major air operation is now cracked open. Latest: https://t.co/83wzAr7L3Q

By Tyler Rogoway
Starlink Now Nearly Dominates US Satellite Fleet
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Starlink Now Nearly Dominates US Satellite Fleet

For comparison, here is the number of US operational satellites over time. (As of today, 9,814 of these are Starlink satellites.) US Operational Satellites https://t.co/9TBifWiomp

By Todd Harrison
China Has Far Fewer Operational Satellites than Claimed
SocialFeb 27, 2026

China Has Far Fewer Operational Satellites than Claimed

I see stories out today saying that China has 1,900 satellites. That's not true. Even if you include all Chinese satellites (commercial, military, civil), it only adds up to 1,187 operational satellites. In comparison, the US has 11,323 operational satellites....

By Todd Harrison
Small Force Wins Through Cohesion, Momentum, Empowered Leadership
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Small Force Wins Through Cohesion, Momentum, Empowered Leadership

“A thousand soldiers took down a city of 6 million. Not by magic. By cohesion, momentum, sustainment, and leaders who empowered initiative under fire." General (ret) David Perkins discussing the 2003 Battle of Baghdad on my @WarInstitute UWP podcast. https://t.co/Icc6ylRqaQ

By John Spencer
Iran's Regime at Weakest in 46 Years, US‑Israel Action Possible
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Iran's Regime at Weakest in 46 Years, US‑Israel Action Possible

Spot on analysis by @gen_jackkeane as always. Islamic Regime in Iran at the weakest point in 46 years, a joint U.S.-Israel military operations could set the conditions for a regime change.

By John Spencer
Iran Misreads U.S. Stance, Undermines Negotiation Credibility
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Iran Misreads U.S. Stance, Undermines Negotiation Credibility

Islamic Regime in Iran thinks they are negotiating with past U.S. administrations, not taking the military course of action seriously IMO.

By John Spencer
Limited B‑52 Fleet Hampers Engine, Radar Upgrade Scheduling
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Limited B‑52 Fleet Hampers Engine, Radar Upgrade Scheduling

Small B-52 Fleet Size Creates Challenges For Engine, Radar Upgrade Plans With just some B-52s equipped for the nuclear mission and all of them in high demand around the globe, finding time to install the upgrades is an issue. ...

By Tyler Rogoway
Info on 1st Multi-Domain Task Force Being Suppressed
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Info on 1st Multi-Domain Task Force Being Suppressed

There seems to have been a general attempt to restrict information about the whole 1st Multi-domain Task Force that operates Typhon and Dark Eagle. https://t.co/odFObLuaEz

By Jeffrey Lewis
New CNAS Report Warns of Taiwan's Hellish Future
SocialFeb 27, 2026

New CNAS Report Warns of Taiwan's Hellish Future

Many thanks to @TheBaseLeg for highlighting @molkathcam & my new @CNASdc report on a Hellscape for Taiwan in @BreakingDefense https://t.co/qdUJFvpsrx

By Stacie Pettyjohn
Security Must Account for All Human Actors
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Security Must Account for All Human Actors

The farmers and the mercenaries: Rethinking the 'human layer' in security | CSO Online https://t.co/W4BglrjoFn

By Chuck Brooks
Trump Admin Alleges 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test From Seismic Data
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Trump Admin Alleges 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test From Seismic Data

The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it. Full Newsletter:...

By Peter Zeihan
An-225 Remains Wrecked; Rebuild Hopes Remain Uncertain
SocialFeb 27, 2026

An-225 Remains Wrecked; Rebuild Hopes Remain Uncertain

Latest images of the An-225 at Hostomel.... the world’s largest plane has been a burned out wreck since the 2022 invasion. No restoration, just remains. Ukraine still talks about building a new one, but it’s not happening yet. The original is...

By Fahad Naim
Russia's Invasion Wrecked the Iconic An-225, Now a Memorial
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Russia's Invasion Wrecked the Iconic An-225, Now a Memorial

FYI, these are the horrible fatal wounds inflicted by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine on the world’s greatest cargo aircraft, the Antonov An-225 Mriya. This is what we saw when we returned to the Hostomel airfield after the Russians were defeated...

By Illia Ponomarenko
One Email per Breach May Miss Second Dump
SocialFeb 27, 2026

One Email per Breach May Miss Second Dump

Updated breaches are a bit messy when it comes to sending domain notifications. We only send ONE email per breach to domain subscribers, so you may get an alert for dump 1 but not for dump 2. It's probably worth...

By Troy Hunt
Israeli‑Indian Weapons Decimated Pakistan Proxy, Yielding Critical Data
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Israeli‑Indian Weapons Decimated Pakistan Proxy, Yielding Critical Data

100% agree @ShivAroor @AdityaRajKaul Israeli and Israeli-India systems were used to dominate the Pakistan Chinese proxy military during Operation Sindoor. Weapons such as IAI Harop kamikaze drone, Elbit SkyStriker loitering munition (India–Israel production), Rafael SPICE precision-guidance kits, IAI/Elbit Rampage air-to-surface missile,...

By John Spencer
Principled Stance on Surveillance & Killbots Earns Respect
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Principled Stance on Surveillance & Killbots Earns Respect

I gained a lot of respect for Dario for being principled on the issues of mass surveillance and autonomous killbots. Principled leaders are rare these days

By François Chollet
FAA Shuts Texas Airspace After Laser Downed Government Drone
SocialFeb 27, 2026

FAA Shuts Texas Airspace After Laser Downed Government Drone

FAA closes airspace in Fort Hancock, Texas after reported use of anti-drone laser believed to have accidentally shot down a US government drone https://t.co/ACBL6Fs5jm

By Jamie Freed
EA-37B Compass Call Jams Enemy Comms, Cripples Kill Chains
SocialFeb 26, 2026

EA-37B Compass Call Jams Enemy Comms, Cripples Kill Chains

This Is What The EA-37B Compass Call Electronic Attack Jet Can Actually Do The EA-37B is meant to disrupt enemy communications, playing havoc on their command and control and shattering their kill chains. Full interview with its makers: https://t.co/TeN3vqd4ot

By Tyler Rogoway