Starlink Blackout Isolates Russian Troops, Fuels Ukrainian Gains
Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Q0eHcVCvu2 #ukrainewar #geopolitics
Kratos Defense Dominates Satellite Contracts with OpenSpace Platform
.@KratosDefense: Our space/satellite division is booming; 'virtually everything we bid on we win.' Late-arriving software-defined satellites are catchinp up w/ our #OpenSpace software-defined ground platform. @NATO @SES @AirbusSpace. https://t.co/BoWNnZdEOZ https://t.co/jxaKAluvmv
KIA-to-Wounded Multiplier Drops as Russians Use Expendable Assault Layer
Good thread here. My own view is the multiplier for KIA to seriously wounded is now unusually low due to the battlefield dynamics and RF fighting with an expendable assault layer within the force. Officially many are counted as MIA...
Enders Regrets Abandoning 50‑year BAE Partnership
Tom Enders - "We should have kept and nurtured our relationship with [Britain’s] BAE Systems. We are looking back to more than 50 years of successful co-operation in fighter aircraft development with the United Kingdom,” #avgeek
Modi's Israel Visit Deepens Strategic Defence and Tech Ties
So great to see @PMOIndia visiting Israel, a vital strategic partnership that keeps growing stronger with deepening cooperation across defence, technology, trade, innovation, and other key areas. More major agreements and frameworks expected to expand collaboration in military and emerging...
Uranium Enrichment Capacity, Not Reactors, Limits Supply
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
NK's Nuclear Strike Capability Grows From Russian Aid
I wrote up a short set of observations on how the lethality of North Korea's tactical nuclear delivery platforms has benefited from its material support for Russia in its war on Ukraine: https://t.co/7XpbUa0g8w
Upcoming Analytics May Quantify Russian Military Rebuilding Percentages
Yes I joked on the podcast that this kind of progress bar isn’t exactly the smartest way to represent it, but we’re probably not far from seeing analytical products with this kind of percentage assessment on Russian military reconstitution.
Debunking War Myths: Offensives, Attrition, CENTCOM Spending
The latest RC is out with @MassDara. We go through some of the current myths, arguments, and assumptions about the war. From assessing offensives to attrition ratios, and my rant on how CENTCOM is about to spend everyone’s munitions. @WarOnTheRocks...
Israeli Media's Attack Warnings Remain Unreliable Predictions
Israel media thinks the attack has been coming on many nights for weeks. The chances continue to rise, but don't take this as a hard indicator in any way. Totally unreliable.
US Fighters Must Base in Israel Amid Limited Options
As we have mentioned, very limited basing options for this due to threats and (supposed) airspace restrictions. US fighters basing in Israel was a given.
Ukrainian Artillery Thwarts Hostomel Airborne Landing, Shifts War
If you’d like, I can tell you what future history textbooks will write about the moment when the first and most decisive turning point occurred -- the one that, much later, ultimately led to the defeat of Russia’s full-scale invasion...
Hegseth Threatens to Label Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk
There's a word for this. Starts with an F. "Hegseth said he could label [Anthropic] a supply-chain risk, a move typically reserved for companies linked to adversaries, or invoke the Defense Production Act to force the company to work with the...
Kremlin Propaganda Targets Trump, Masks Ongoing Ukrainian Devastation
“Moscow intends to pass to Washington information about Kyiv’s plans to obtain nuclear weapons from the West.” Well, that pretty much reveals the obvious target audience of the Kremlin’s latest round of propagandistic nonsense about Ukraine: Donald Trump and his real-estate...
Five Probable Paths to End Ukraine War
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Only 12 US Warships Deployed,
Abraham Lincoln Canberra Delbert D. Black Frank E. Petersen Jr. John Finn McFaul Michael Murphy Mitscher Pinckney Santa Barbara Spruance Tulsa Plus the Ford carrier strike group and two additional destroyers (Bulkeley and Roosevelt) nearby in EUCOM.
China’s Indifference to US Pressure Still Raises Global Concerns
+1. Even if China doesn't care about US pressure, talking to the CD raises questions among countries that China does care about.
VCs Misuse Dual‑use Hype; Stop Relying on Grants
Certainly GTM is very different. And there are supply chain issues in current environment. Would add: NOT doing dual use is not an excuse to rely on grants and research money, stuff becoming too expensive, and not being able to...
Lop Nor Event Dwarfed by Comparison Earthquakes, Data Shows
We now have a slide from @UnderSecT on the suspicious event at Lop Nor in China. One can see how much smaller this event is than the earthquakes selected for comparison by looking at the noise prior to the start...
US Government Fails to Push Firms Toward Supply‑Chain Security
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
IDF Targets Hamas Tunnels; Months to Clear Rafah
IDF works every day to destroy portions of the billion-dollar, 500+ mile Hamas tunnel network in Gaza. Every tunnel must be found and destroyed. It may take years to eliminate the entire network, but in areas like Rafah, especially where...
AI Accelerates Threat Groups' Attack Speed
Threat groups move at record speeds, as AI helps scale attacks | Cybersecurity Dive https://t.co/frfbUAXzlI
Unprecedented Action: CD's Most Active Period in Decades
Say what you will, but this is more action than the CD has seen in decades.
Iran's Oil Loadings Hit 2018 Highs, Margins Thin
Iran is pumping and loading at near-2018 highs ahead of nuclear talks Loadings are surging, buyers are softer, and oil-on-water is piling up More leverage, more risk, thinner margins. https://t.co/AZPC1zaGls #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Sanctions #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets
U.S. Faces Real Fatality Risk After Soleimani Incident
As the United States moves into an uncertain period of time with Iran, important to remember: The possibility of U.S. combat fatalities is real. Look no farther than the near-misses at Al Asad air base in 2020, following the U.S....
U.S. Navy Intercepts Sanctioned Tanker Bertha in Indian Ocean
Bertha, don’t you come around here anymore U.S. Chase Ends in Indian Ocean with Boarding of Sanctioned Tanker 'Bertha' https://t.co/Fj8QRsuz6N
Secure AI‑Driven DevOps via Signal‑Powered SideChannel
Introducing a new tool called "SideChannel". A secure alternative to OpenClaw. Utilizes signal for communication and has Claude integration. I built SideChannel, an open-source Signal bot that connects Claude AI to your entire development workflow. End-to-end encrypted. From your pocket. The real...
Kyiv's Defense Drills Foreshadowed the Invasion
How it all started with Kyiv territorial defense drills just days before the invasion. https://t.co/twxuSktmmf
UK Adds
Nearly 300 entities linked to Russian energy and military production have been added to the UK’s sanctions lists, including a network of oil traders whose vast reach was identified by the FT as the result of an IT blunder. https://t.co/Bky4oWVd2S
Ukraine Sabotages Pipeline, Cuts Oil to Slovakia, Hungary
Yesterday, Ukraine turned on Slovakia and Hungary. Ukrainian operatives blew up the main node of the Druzhba oil pipeline that supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil and 86% of Hungary's oil. UKRAINE = TURNS ON TWO MEMBERS IN NATO. https://t.co/ItvWWCVJb5
AI Enables F‑35 to Rapidly Identify Enemy Defenses
AI Is Now Helping The F-35 Spot Enemy Air Defenses New artificial intelligence technology is giving the F-35 the ability to pick out confusing threat emissions and get them properly identified faster. https://t.co/Kq5RxLhQzc
Russia’s Self‑inflicted Wars Sow Generational Military Decay
Four years ago: Russian personnel fumbles then and it’s only grown worse over time. The violence they commit against their own will ricochet through the Russian military for another generation to come, as it did from their wars in...
Tanks Cut Infantry Deaths 60% with Trophy Protection
“Are tanks in urban warfare a burden or benefit? - Israel's experience” https://t.co/HdURRIxWhW After‑action reports from the IDF’s Ground Forces Command noted that armored units reduced infantry fatalities by more than 60% compared with operations where tanks were absent or delayed. Since...
Merchant Marine Essential for Rebuilding US Industrial Base
“We can not rebuild our industrial base without the US Merchant Marine. They are critically important,” @PeteHegseth in a news conference yesterday.
Leonardo Proteus UAV: 15‑Minute Flight Limits Hype
"Wait and sea" - genius headline for this report on Leonardo Proteus UAV from @fg_domperry - but only 15 mins flight time so far? #avgeek https://t.co/fuWDNu7sFH https://t.co/SoGUaRJTZX
U.S. Skips Ukraine Invasion Anniversary, Offers No Statement
The U.S. administration did not send a single representative to the official commemoration events marking the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nor did it issue a single word through its embassy in Kyiv -- not even a standard...
Cyber Supply Chain Security Is Essential for National Resilience
Cyber supply chain security is no longer optional—it’s essential for resilience, innovation, and national security. Read the full piece: The Cybersecurity Challenges of the Supply Chain by @ChuckDBrooks https://t.co/THnR3VKAJx #cybersecurity #technology #supplychain
Japan's New Rare Earth Find Won't Shift Global Supply
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm
Join RUSI Talk on Whitehall Statecraft, March 19
If you are a @RUSI_org member and in London on 19 March, I will be discussing my forthcoming book 'Statecraft' with David Hogan-Hern on Whitehall, 1730-1830: https://t.co/xgrWvqlY5x
Ukraine's Drone Revolution Turns War Tide, Proves Victory Possible
Four years have passed since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia was supposed to win in three days. Instead, Ukraine reinvented modern warfare, built a drone industry, and can destroy a thousand Russian soldiers in a day. Ukraine can...
Russia Probes Telegram Founder for Alleged Terrorist Support
Russia has opened an investigation into Telegram founder Pavel Durov for “abetting terrorist activities”, in the latest sign that his uneasy relationship with the Kremlin has broken down. https://t.co/HYthGGeVJG
US Can only Sustain 4‑5 Days of Intense Iran Strikes
"Israeli intelligence has concluded that even with the imminent arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford later this week, the US has military capacity to sustain just a four to five day intense aerial assault on Iran, or a week...
YFQ‑44A Fury Drone Begins AMRAAM Integration Testing
YFQ-44A Fury Now Flying With AIM-120 AMRAAM Missile The USAF says its Collaborative Combat Aircraft drone program has entered the weapons integration and captive carry testing phase. New: https://t.co/gL0UcfTkZm
Northrop Grumman Renames Fighter Drone Talon Blue
Talon Blue Is The New Name For Northrop Grumman’s YFQ-48A ‘Fighter Drone’ Talon harkens back to the company's T-38 Talon heritage, while Blue is likely a reference to Tacit Blue, which was a technological leap at the dawn of...
Anduril YFQ-44A CCA Tested with Inert AIM-120
New photo of the @Anduril YFQ-44A CCA carrying an inert AIM-120 as part of captive carry tests: https://t.co/zlKJ5RntBF
Defense Manufacturing Push Highlights Logistics and Infrastructure Gaps
According to a senior defense official I met with today, the primary focus of the Arsenal of Freedom initiative is volume and speed of manufacturing but there are secondary problems they’re working hard to solve. High on that list is...
Comparing Nuclear Dawn to Today's AI Revolution
Nukesletter is back on Substack: I share a short essay I wrote on the analogies often drawn between the dawn of the nuclear age and the current conversations around transformation AI. There are limits, but some useful comparisons. https://t.co/7sGgUOuBsW
Trillion-Dollar Aid Can't Fix Crumbling Logistics Infrastructure
The Arsenal of Freedom needs trucks, ships, barges, but our infrastructure is crumbling. @PeteButtigieg had a trillion dollars and failed, Army Corps is failing. @PeteHegseth didn’t just answer my question, he beat me to the punch by hours. https://t.co/L63oHDrDlQ
Secretary of War: Merchant Marine Essential for Industrial Rebuild
Here it is folks. The moment my 100k followers have been waiting for…. “We can not rebuild our industrial base without the US Merchant Marine. They are critically important,” @PeteHegseth, Secretary of War 🫡 https://t.co/HYvWum8qFA
Winter Greenland Deployment of Navy Hospital Ships Impractical
“Sending the U.S. Navy’s hospital ships USNS Mercy or USNS Comfort to Greenland in late winter would face major obstacles from peak sea ice, a lack of available icebreaker escorts, and ports too shallow for the ships’ deep drafts” https://t.co/xI3xIjrRbh