
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves much more prolonged than traders currently anticipate. U.S. crude futures prices for oil delivered in May have risen by almost $44 per barrel (75%) from their low just after the start of the year, but except for a few stripper well operators most producers cannot raise output that fast. Futures for deliveries in December (realistically the fastest producers might be able to raise output significantly) have risen by just $15 (25%), probably not enough to encourage a significant increase in drilling activity ...

Japan is trying to encourage its private companies to invest more in overseas LNG supply 🇯🇵❤️🚢 The government launched a new scheme that will offer faster return on investment for LNG projects via state-backed JOGMEC. A key criteria is that the LNG...
Pexapark: Middle East conflict could increase European solar PPA prices by 35% #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/V7vYLlm1b0
Tracked Semi-Humanoid #Robot Enters Solar Farms for Smarter Installation and Inspection by @CyberRobooo #Robotics #Engineering #ArtificialIntelligence #Innovation #Technology https://t.co/AaZYpNM75C
Almost half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is the shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn't have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely...
100-hour LDES battery technologies from Form, Noon and Ore: how do they compare? #energysky -- via Energy Storage News: https://t.co/CjiddvgGDw
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Green steel, data centres and hydrogen push South Australia’s electricity demand toward 50TWh by 2040 #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/CtFApHKWU6
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
US Modules opens solar panel assembly plant in east-central Texas #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/5vjljqcFwu

Pacific Islands energy crisis: One country faces fuel import bills three times its healthcare budget #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/N00HEnovpH https://t.co/UtxPetaA8W

What tells a clear story? Crude oil prices = No Product prices = Yes... https://t.co/Ltyf8VQx12

Road Ahead 1. Data Centers, $2.5T Capex. 2. $2T US Power Grid Rebuild - copper, aluminum. 3. Currency Debasement: USA $1.9% Defecit / 6.2% of GDP vs 3% average last 40 years. 4. Re-Build: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, Israel - copper. 5. Robotics -...
US installs record 18.9 GW of energy storage in 2025 #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/y8DCRggizl

2nd tarde of the day here with $USO and #OIL short here. so far so good. 🫡💥 https://t.co/qXhkRgCEbx
Amen. This is what Firma Power is focused on delivering clean firm portfolios of grid-connected assets. This is the way...
#Ethanol stocks fall to 26.0 million barrels in the week ending March 27, down from 27.2 million barrels the previous week, and down from 26.6 million barrels in the same week last year. #corn #oatt
This is a great read about how to think about what's happening with oil and Hormuz - and ultimately with the world economy. The headlines are all over the place, but these 4 signals can tell you what's really happening.
Iran is still heavily sanctioned by the US, which complicates the payment of any tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, both today or in a future where Tehran maintains some control of the Strait Wouldn't be surprised to see...
Oil (USO) interesting trade September 2027 as the $140/$135/$115/$110 Iron Condor trades 1000X expecting a 115-135 longer-term range to hold
Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC
Iranian Republic Media: The Strait of Hormuz will not open based on Trump's absurd claims: Bloomberg
I will keep retweeting updates of @GasBuddyGuy great data. This dispersion in diesel prices is both striking and relevant.
My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are: 🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait 🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers 🤷🏻♂️...
The LNG we import in Europe is far from clean. Visible methane plumes at US gas sites rated “grade A” resulting in much higher upstream emissions. Auditors don’t measure emissions — they review operator data that studies show is massively understated....
Great new @ForeignAffairs essay by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s @ProfessorKaren about how post-war, the historic “oil for security” relationship is no longer tenable, & US needs to update its approach to Gulf states that are rapidly diversifying their economies https://t.co/Nmszm8a5bu
How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure. https://t.co/YczOlt8T4v
One month in to the war, some people are ready to call it. This energy shock will accelerate the world to a cleaner, more electrified future. “Electrification will be seen as the shock absorber.” https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/opinion/oil-crisis-iran-electric-solar.html

The price of batteries have declined by 99% in the last three decades. The battery cells in a standard electric car today cost around $5,000. In 1991, those same cells would have cost nearly $600,000. https://t.co/uxbTqmfsLn
“But net zero ignores the mining required for batteries and metals for renewables” Let me introduce you to a Life Cycle Analysis.
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @gbrew24 about Trump killing the Carter Doctrine and how to think about the political contours of the Iran War on *all* sides of the conflict and...
Gas grid operator VNG has urged the German government to take action to make sure storage is refilled with price spreads uneconomical amid high prices driven by the Middle East war. https://t.co/wlBhZjRU8Z

The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...

Legitimate questions: 🚨An oil facility that cannot export anyway due to the ongoing crisis at the Strait of Hormuz. Given the limited number of missiles and drones available to Iran, why use one to strike such a facility? 🚨An oil tanker that...
Spoke to @AJEnglish on Iran war & energy. Crises always drive up fossil fuel prices. That's not a bug but a feature of dependence. The only hedge against this kind of disruption is the clean energy transition. The economic case just got...

Brent has fallen sharply as the US sounds increasingly like it just wants to declare "mission accomplished" and end this war. I do think the midterm elections later this year mean the US is on a very tight timeline and...

It was a pleasure meeting H.E. @AmbBirukUK, @ETEmbassyLDN Ambassador. We discussed #Ethiopia’s efforts to expanding #energyaccess and its leading role in sustainable development and #cleanenergy. I assured him of @SEforALLorg's support to achieve its energy targets. https://t.co/cFpft8ePjF

Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...

Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...

When the G7 price cap was being negotiated in 2022, one US bank had an oil forecast of $380. That was the oil sector talking. It hates interference in its business. It's the same now. $150 or $200 forecasts...

Brent futures are beginning to reflect physical reality $118. 35 closing price was only $0.68 less than peak Ukraine in late March 2022 Much steeper backwardation now https://t.co/N03VvzUcs3

PHOTO OF THE DAY: Very rare sighthing — three large oil tankers loading simultanouesly at the Al Muajjiz terminal (Yanbu south) in the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia (one of the end points of the East-West pipeline). 🛰️📷@CopernicusEU Sentinel-2...
It’s a new day & I’m on @Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (6:30am) to discuss #oil #Iran latest devs. Military is building up but Trump wants to wind down operations in 2-3 weeks. Will Iran remain the Persian Gulf toll collector @ACGlobalEnergy...

For non-Macro Tourist eyes only: LIVE Shot of the "end of the war" in TRENDING Energy Price terms https://t.co/BnmybmKwlL

OIL: just wait until you see where the TRR (top-end of the Risk Range™ Signal) just went https://t.co/2qvUoG2qpD
China is moving to stabilize Hormuz without the U.S.—using Pakistan as a diplomatic bridge. Power shifts to whoever restores the flows. https://t.co/3LW8TIyS65 #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #China
After a 7-year hiatus, India is about to import its first Iranian oil. At ~$100 a barrel. Quite the achievement in Washington for the long-term strenght of the economic and financial sanctions regime.
Australia’s prime minister just used a rare national address to urge the nation to use less fuel 🇦🇺 ⚠️ “Over coming weeks, if you can switch to catching the train or bus or tram to work, do so… The months...
As an expert predictor of geopolitics, here’s my prediction: Hormuz is broke. Expect a 5-10m daily barrel capacity pipeline between Saudi Arabia and Mediterranean, via Israel (Ashdod port) in 5 years time.
In non-Iran news, BP new boss Meg O'Neill started today on her job. She's the fourth CEO in six years running the British oil major. O'Neill will face shareholders first at the company's AGM, secheduled for April 23, and potentially again...