Concern Grows Over Strategic Strait of Hormuz Tensions
I am sorry @SecWar, but there are some of us are worried about the Strait of Hormuz.
Seized Trump Oil Tankers Drain U.S. Treasury, Sale Blocked
Um... "The seizures have put the U.S. government in a financial bind. The ships are highly expensive to maintain. And the Trump administration cannot legally sell their oil without a judge’s permission." https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/us/politics/trump-seized-oil-tankers-cost.html
Secure Strait of Hormuz to Ensure Stable Oil Prices
Energy, especially oil, is the backbone of every economy. As I said, a stable oil price, $55 to $70, keeps the global economy running smoothly. But it’s about more than price, it’s about keeping the two-mile stretch of the Strait...
64% Likelihood Oil Surpasses $110/Barrel by March
JUST IN: 64% chance Crude Oil is over $110/barrel by the end of March https://t.co/mW0x32Mq3g
Iran's Real Power: Controlling the Strait of Hormuz
My take on Iran's biggest advantage in the war: "The US & Israel are making mincemeat out of Iran, but Iranians still hold their key card: the Strait of Hormuz, which remains shut down. A great friend in Dubai said he...
Gas $5, Oil Spike Signals Higher Prices Ahead
Gas is already pushing five dollars a gallon here, and remember this: when oil prices spike, gas prices lag behind. Which means this isn’t the peak. It’s the warning. Are we winning yet?!
China Launches Ground‑mounted Perovskite Solar Test Field
Ground-mounted perovksite solar module testing field goes online in China #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/JFx7Yp31JV
Chemical Shortage Hits Asia as Naphtha Supply Dries Up
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Iran May Extort Oil Deals After $120 Price Surge
Why wouldn’t Iran wait until oil hits $120/barrel and then put out the word that if you’re friendly to them and pay them you can get your oil, mafia-style?
Brent Backwardation Narrows at Front, Widens Overall
While the prompt Brent timespread has actually weakened a bit from last Friday, it's largely because the rest of the curve is rallying more aggressively than the front. Brent curve backwardation slightly shallower at the front vs last Friday, but backwardation...
AEMO Stresses Keeping System and Market Functions Unified
“It is paramount:” AEMO says system and market operator functions must be kept together #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/aT4fNULk61 https://t.co/zCvJLVP2gO
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
Trump Releases 172M Barrels, Calls SPR Outdated White Elephant
TRUMP PANICS and orders the release of 172 million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will amount to a drop in the bucket. SPR is a classic OUTDATED GOV'T WHITE ELEPHANT. It's time to liquidate it and shut it...
New Rooftop Solar Panel Enables Larger Systems
Powerful new rooftop solar panel promises system sizes “previously out of reach” #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/Jm6MCBYKj8 https://t.co/XzzLtt2LWX
Decoupling Gas From Electricity Prices: Reform Ideas
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn...
Trump Pushes Fed Cut as Oil Spikes Amid Iran Conflict
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
Wolf: Oil Price Nightmare Unlikely; Iran Regime Change Implausible
OUT NOW - @martinwolf_ on "nightmare scenario" for oil prices and why the democratic regime change in Iran is "extremely implausible" 🇮🇷 Apple🔊https://t.co/YIUZqmamAH Spotify📽️https://t.co/TIAT3VANJk YouTube📽️https://t.co/unzLSGazzM https://t.co/MQl4DAj8d0
No TACOs: Trump Lacks Leverage in Energy Crisis
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
API and CME Resist White House Oil‑Price Cuts
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
Petrol Retailers Pull Out over Ministers' Inflammatory Language
So, the Petrol Retailers Association have withdrawn from the meeting with govrenment claiming there's inflammatory language being used by Government ministers' Can't say I blame them.
Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Enel Colombia Launches 180 MW Atlántico Solar Park
Enel Colombia’s 180 MW Atlántico solar park starts supplying national grid #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/qlzQnCmgbL
California Hits Record Battery Discharge, Covering 10% Demand
Two new battery records on @CaliforniaISO grid: Max battery discharge rate: 56.61 GWh/day Max discharge rate as a percent of demand: 38.0% at 6:55 PM 3/12/26 Batteries met 10.5% of all demand 21st straight & 48/71 (68%) days in 2026 with WWS>100% of demand...
Linking CL and USO Time Spreads Reveals Arbitrage
Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Iran Conflict Revives Debate on Booming U.S. Oil Exports
Iran war reignites debate over U.S. oil exports, which have surged after Congress + Obama lifted a ban in 2015. https://t.co/xCz2d8WdQ1 via @axios https://t.co/kHinCgc4Z7
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Saudi Bypass of Hormuz Spurs Red Sea Supertanker Surge
Supertankers Build Up in Red Sea as Saudi Arabia Races to Bypass Hormuz. The plan and how much the infrastructure can handle. https://t.co/0tUBLK1icp
Dubai Physical Crude Trades $40 Above Brent Futures
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Energy Surge Splits Market as SPY Hits 2026 Lows
Energy stocks at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. Chevron, Marathon, Valero ripping. Everything else bleeding. This is not a market. It's two separate markets wearing one coat. https://t.co/yJjS0g4dAU
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
Small‑Cap Investors Mimic Dunkirk, Smuggling Oil Through Hormuz
The Little Ships of Dunkirk except its small cap investors smuggling oil through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/grhS8iKYsL
China’s Electrostate Shift Cushions Impact of Rising Oil Prices
China may benefit from higher oil prices triggered by Iran war China’s evolution into an “electrostate” may help insulate it from spiking oil prices. https://t.co/oCfxauQUQP
China Passes Law Accelerating Environmental Ambitions, Defying Expectations
Meanwhile, shockingly, the other major global power is doing the very opposite within its own borders... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/china-s-new-law-signals-xi-won-t-curb-environmental-ambitions
US War Prep Undermines Oil, Helium, and Alliances
Okay good, let's say the WH planned for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz following the attack. 1. The U.S. sold off its helium reserve before waging a war that they knew would disrupt helium exports to allies, which make...
African Nations Trade Oil in Rands, US Mockingly Reacts
Nigeria and South Africa strike a deal to sell oil in Rands. United States responds; “Nigeria needs freedom” - Satire -
Helium Shortage Looms as Qatar Supply Disrupted
Everyone is talking about the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz on oil and gas. I haven't seen much discussion of the war's impact on helium. Most people think of helium as being a fun gas you use for...
Trump Downplays Kharg Island, Signaling No Oil Supply Squeeze
TRUMP: KHARG ISLAND IS 'ONE OF MANY DIFFERENT THINGS' TRUMP: KHARG ISLAND 'NOT HIGH ON THE LIST' At this stage it's pretty obvious that Trump has no interest in further constricting global oil supplies. Even Iranian export flows are a...
Japan Boosts Solar Capacity by 5.8 GW in 2025
Japan adds 5.8 GW of solar in 2025 #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/E8kobL8J1P
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
Electrification Remains Overlooked Climate Solution, Reporter Frustrated
As a climate and energy reporter, I have to admit continued frustration in trying to convince people that electrification is a climate solution, regardless of what is used to generate the power. Sigh...
South Africa Sources 69% of Oil Imports From Africa
South Africa’s Crude oil imports Here are the historical amounts of crude oil South Africa imports in for each respective month. Total = 9.5 billion liters (2024) Nigeria accounted for 48% Angola accounted for 15% Ghana accounted for 6% 69%...
Strait Closure Likely if Conflict with Iran Escalates
Closure of the strait is one of the most obvious possible consequences of conflict with Iran...
Data Center Growth Forces Everyone to Pay New Transmission
We know who pays for new transmission. We all do. In PJM, data center growth creates reliability problems that PJM solves with new transmission. Using methods written by the utilities, PJM bills all utilities for new lines, who then bill us.
Brent's Third-Month Futures Outperform Front-Month, Signaling Supply Risks
This is the week that oil markets started to wake up to not-so-short-term supply risks. Unprecedented outperformance of Brent third-month vs front-month in an up market (since at least 1989) https://t.co/moJqCod6kL https://t.co/0wKCN8bKco
US Eases Russian Oil Bans, Boosting Putin’s War Funds
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
Oil Gains $30/Barrel as Hormuz Closure Persists
Happy Friday, oil watchers. We're now two weeks into the Iran War and crude prices are up ~$30/bbl. That's roughly a $3/bbl gain per day that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed, a pace that I expect to continue so long...
PJM Lacks Authority Over Line Ratings, Utilities Hold Power
PJM has no authority over transmission line ratings. This is a governance and regulatory failure. PJM is now technically able to use more accurate inputs in its transmission system models, but it might not actually be doing so. It's up to...