RSPD:SPY Ratio Hits Lowest Level Since 2000
The RSPD:SPY ratio just sank to its worst level since the year 2000 Equal-weight discretionary fresh relative lows to the S&P 500 $RSPD $SPY More from me on @stockcharts: https://t.co/Y9zWo1TSRi https://t.co/7GXaiqCS3w
Ackman Possibly Forfeits $10B by Favoring CEFs
How much money is Ackman leaving on table by doing CEF vs ETF. Prob $10b at least. But tbf CEF may just be what he’s more comfortable w for his strategy. Still tho, if reaching investors is goal this prob...
PE Investors Chase Smoothed Volatility, Not Real Returns
Back in 2019 I launched a private equity replication ETF, which provided PE returns in a liquid vehicle. After hundreds of meetings with allocators, I concluded that the primary reason they allocate to PE is the mark-to-model and smoothed volatility. The product...
Spot BTC & ETH ETFs See Heavy Outflows, Alt Inflows
OUTFLOWS CONTINUE from spot Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs Yesterday’s flows: ▫️ #BTC = -$89,680,000 ▫️ #ETH = -$21,800,000 ▫️ #XRP = +$2,200,000 ▫️ #AVAX = +$221,410 Smart money rotating or early warning? 👀 https://t.co/Qqjt5bTBfD
SOXX's Parabolic Surge Signals Unusual Market Momentum
"When you see the $SOXX, that's absolutely gone parabolic, like literally a straight line, over the last few weeks... that's not normal" https://t.co/tqy78j543v
Semiconductors and Energy Stocks Surge Amid Oil Hype
while everyone tries to stay excited (and some perhaps anxious) about oil prices & Middle East headlines, semiconductors $SMH vs. energy $XLE stocks keep heading higher in their multi-year uptrend... https://t.co/xeMlOCoStn
Key Index Shifts: Semis, EM, Industrials Signal Sentiment
Important index changes we think you should know about, in this week's ETF video below. Semis, Emerging Markets, Industrials, and flows as a sentiment barometer. Thanks as always for watching. https://t.co/QbnBM1ljrD
Risky Asset Inflows Outpace Safe Funds in Four Weeks
Over the past 4 weeks, flows into risky asset funds have overwhelmed those into safe asset funds. Goldman Sachs via WallStJesus
Oil Jumps 3.5% as Markets Stay Flat
$SPY +0.1% $QQQ +0.4% $SMH +0.9% $IWM +0.1% $EEM +0.5% $TLT -0.2% $USO +3.5% $IBIT +1.0% $GLD -0.4% @finviz_com https://t.co/opW23XtMOB
2008‑09 Bear‑Market Signals Boost RSP Returns Significantly
$RSP - Good Chart From Sam.... So I did some number crunching..... The catch: 2008-2009 has 6 clustered signals near the bear market lows, and those produce enormous forward returns. Strip those out and the edge narrows. That's not a reason to...
Use Hedges as Safety Nets During Sector Pullbacks
$qqq also held the 8day at first kiss. They usually do. P.S having some hedges when sectors are very extended from the 8day helps when they pullback to them. https://t.co/5QJoDcmDyo
Diminishing Participation Signals Bearish Divergence and Low Volume
SPY: Stock participation has deteriorated over the last days, creating a bearish divergence similar to those that preceded healthy pullbacks last year. What makes this occurrence particularly intriguing is the vanishing volume, adding a layer of divergence and caution. #SPX
Private‑Equity ETFs Still Carry Excessive Fees
Seems like every day, a new ETF/CEF/interval fund focused on private equity or VC is being launched. Why doesn't someone do it for a <1% fee? Why do they all have to be 2%, 3%, 4%, or 5% in annual fees? Honestly,...
Passive Ownership Shifts Mirror Stock Performance Trends
Everyone is always talking about passive's impact on the market -- its definitely having some impact. We looked at US stocks with rising & falling passive ownership % over last 3 years. The trend speaks for itself. Though there's obviously...
Sell‑in‑May Myth Fading as Markets Stay Bullish
It may be time to retire "Sell in May" forever.. "It made sense when 19th-century London's moneyed elite swapped trading floors for summer estates -- but 21st-century algo-driven markets that never sleep have undone that adage. The S&P 500...
SOXX EPS Forecast Jumps Over $400 Since Q4 2025
$SOXX forward EPS estimate has surged from $250 to above $400 just since Q4 2025 @johnauthers @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/QSQJXvqIWj
Clean‑Energy Surge Propels First Trust Smart Grid ETF
Clean energy stocks have been generating enormous market gains, and no exchange-traded fund has benefited more than the First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund https://t.co/CSwC67stWo
Nuclear Stocks Show Low Correlation with S&P 500
BofA: Nuclear power stocks have a low correlation to the S&P 500 $NUKZ $XLU https://t.co/t2mtNnwmGQ
Plotkin's Snowball ETF Uses 351 Conversion to Erase Capital Gains
Gabe Plotkin (of GameStop fame) is launching the “Snowball ETF” at some point prob soon and it wil be a 351 conversion, way to get rid of embedded cap gains. Nice piece on it today from @denitsa_tsekova & @isabelletanlee https://t.co/uHcccZpX5g
Oil ETF Hits Multi‑year High, Signaling Market Shift
"As we're sitting here today $OIH made a new multi-year high. It's pulled back a little bit. Now we're sort of flirting with unchanged on the day... I think that is sniffing something out." 🛢️ @GuyAdami on crude oil & the...
Equal‑weight S&P Stalls as Cap‑weight Hits Fresh High
As stock indices rise, fewer stocks are going along. This is why the S&P 500 equal-weight index $RSP hasn't made a new high for 40 days, while the cap-weight version $SPY just did. In 70 years, this is only the 3rd time...
Memory Stocks Set to Double as AI Fuels Growth
NEW: We dug into this white hot Memory Stock trade that has helped $DRAM become the fastest growing theme ETF of all time w/ BI's semiconductor analyst Jake Silverman. He explains what memory is, the AI connection, where in cycle...
Danish Index Underweights Tech: Deliberate Strategy?
Danish (European) index investing is being underweight technology - I guess that is a strategy 🙃
XLK Dominates While XLE and XLP Lead
$XLK - What A Monster..... Masked the fact that the other two leading sectors this week were $XLE and $XLP https://t.co/niSKEGw6eD
SOXX Soars, NVDA Stalls: Catch‑Up Unlikely
Since NVDA and MAGS all-time highs in late October, SOXX is +48%, NVDA is -2%, and MAGS is -4%. Historically it's rare for NVDA to "play catch up" to SOXX. If you expect NVDA to break out to new highs here,...
Low Momentum, Value Tilt Leaves TCAF Underperforming
TCAF’s factor mix keeps me skeptical. Low momentum + value tilt = a tough combo in this market. Returns have been mostly disappointing relative to the risk. FactorInvesting
Semiconductor ETF Poised for Best Month Since 2000
Bit of a chart crime looking at this before the month close, but semiconductor $SMH ETF is on pace for its best month ever going back to 2000. That kind of concentrated leadership explains why this rally feels so bifurcated, with...
Roundhill Launches First Non‑political Recession Prediction ETFs
Just saw Roundhill filed for more prediction market ETFs to track Recession Yes and Recession No. These first non-political ones. I’m sure we will see more. https://t.co/aN2OoT46Yr
QQQ Near 50% Above 200‑Week MA—Rare Historical Signal
$QQQ is almost 50% above its 200 week MA. The last time that happened was in October and the weekly candle was above the threshold at the October top. Since 2009 the only prolonged period that it traded above the...
SOXX's 18-Day Surge Beats Dot‑Com Bubble High
The SOXX ETF (iShares Semiconductor ETF) is up 18 days in a row and +49% in that time. The best comparable reading the PHLX Semiconductor Index saw in the dot-com bubble was +44%, and it marked the March 2000 top https://t.co/28y0Z6DFLq
Tech ETF XLK Surges 21%, Outperforms S&P 500
There's 1 sector ETF beating the S&P 500 this month.. $XLK tech.. up 21% https://t.co/QfPQ8uGRJh
JP Morgan Sees Tokenized ETFs Reshaping the Funds Industry
*JP Morgan* says "looking at proof of concepts around tokenizing ETFs"... "We believe tokenization will certainly drive how the market changes, not just for ETFs but across the funds industry as a whole." https://t.co/rpwk2HqHHC
ARKK Stagnates Year‑to‑Date, No 2021 Euphoria
$ARKK is flat on the year. This is not a generalized market euphoria like 2021
Leveraged ETF Rebalancing Drives $14B Inelastic Close Buying
Another stall day. At current prices 14BN of inelastic buying must occur on the close. This is heavily front run through the balance of the day. That flow is heavily tilted to NDX and Semis. It...
Client Exits Led to 24% Outperformance and 62% AUM Growth
last april, during the tariff tantrum, equity + trend fell -25% vs S&P 500's -16%. a client fully redeemed. to paraphrase, "I feel bad for you guys; you'll be out of business soon." since then, stocks + trend beat the S&P...
SPX Diverges From SPLV, Fails New Highs
Not fatal, but a divergence to watch near-term is SPX vs. SPLV. Failed to make new highs with the index last week (just like the fall) and turning lower at resistance this week https://t.co/Jvl11woJOk
SOXX‑Beta Basket Correlation Peaks Since 2025 V‑Recovery
You can’t spell semiconductors without “V”* 21-session correlation between $SOXX and Goldman’s high beta momo long basket hasn’t been this strong since the April 2025 V-shaped recovery *well you can, but https://t.co/Y5jw7I7M1H
SMH's 33% Four‑Week Surge Signals Potential Top
$SMH rallied 33% in the last 4 weeks. Since 2009, it rallied 27%+ in 4 weeks only 3 other times: after the 2020 Covid crash, after the 2022 bear market low, and after the 2025 tariff crash. Add to that...
VOO and Chill Defies Doom, Stocks Jump 9%
Wrote today about how 'VOO and Chill' (America's #1 inv strategy) won again, claiming another victory vs the overthinkers and doomer columnists who told us it was all over a month ago as media mentions of "war" spiked. Instead, stocks...
Risk-On Rally Fuels $35 B in US ETF Inflows
Talk about a risk-on rally. S&P 500 ETFs taking in the top three spots over the last week. US ETFs have taken in over $35 billion in aggregate. And $ARKK is #4 on the list with over $1.2 billion over...
Commodities Surge While AI Trades Face Crowding Warning
2026 Oil Service $OIH +49% Natural Gas $FCG +29% Uranium $URNM +26% Commodities $BCOM +24% Micro Caps $IWC +14% All Metals $XME +14% Russell 2000 $IWM +13% Coal $COAL +11% Big Tech $QQQ+6% Mag7 $MAGS -1%* *Beware of crowded trades and capex funding vehicles for everything AI.
ETF Inflows Fuel Profit‑taking, Signaling Bitcoin Top
The $2 billion bitcoin ETF inflow streak over 8 straight days is real. It is also exit liquidity. Glassnode shows short-term holders now realizing profit at $4.4M per hour — three times the level that has preceded every local top in...
VOO on Track to Become First $1T ETF
MILESTONE WATCH: $VOO is now at $913b which is mindboggling considering it had $595b only 12mo ago. That's $1.25b a day in aum growth. Based on this pace it is scheduled to become the first ETF ever to hit $1T...
ETF Investors Pour $1B Into Falling Bitcoin
Spot btc ETFs on a run… Inflows 10 out of past 11 days… +$2.4bil Flows now *positive* in 2026. Btc down 35% since hitting record high in early Oct. Spot btc ETFs over that time? Nearly $1bil *inflows*. ETF investors proving to be longer-term allocators. Diamond hands.
Consider Hedging SPY Around $708.5 After Recent Dip
If u felt vulnerable when $spy was below $703 a few hours back. Perhaps add some hedges with $spy $708.50ish
BTC ETF Investors Remain Resilient Amid New Offerings
My conversation w/ @EricBalchunas… We cover: -Resilience of btc ETF investors -Morgan Stanley & Goldman btc ETFs -Crypto index ETFs -Schwab direct crypto trading -ETF tokenization And *much* more. It's all here. https://t.co/tDsAXn3Fxn via @CryptoPrimePod https://t.co/znPmp4DJCf
SOX's 42% Surge Mirrors Rare Post‑Bear Rallies
$SOX(semiconductors) rallied 42% in the last 17 trading days. This happened only twice in its history: On April 30, 2001, after 14 months of bear market. On November 1, 2002, at the beginning of a new bull market, and after 31 months...
XLF Rallies to 200‑day MA; Watch for Rollover
$XLF Daily. ETF for big banks, many of which reported earnings. Rally up to 200-day m.a. & confluence of moving averages. Private credit had their bounce too. Watch for rollovers https://t.co/3hGFhsxWIf
Crypto ETF Evolution Mapped in Wild Chart
Insane chart showing the evolution of crypto ETFs from @Todd_Sohn. Spaghetti cannon in effect. https://t.co/TJK778XJQn
BTC and ETH Spot ETFs See Strong April Inflows
JUST IN: Spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, and XRP recorded net inflows on April 22, with BTC at $335.8M, ETH at $96.4M, XRP at $2.42M, and SOL at $0M.