USDCAD Sellers Had Their Shot. They Missed. What Now Technically for the USDCAD Traders?
USDCAD opened near the month’s high of 1.3752 but could not sustain a breakout above the recent peak of 1.37476, sending the pair back toward the 100‑hour moving average at 1.37086. Sellers briefly pushed the price below this level to 1.3700 before buyers reclaimed it, keeping the market range‑bound. The 100‑hour moving average continues to act as the short‑term pivot, with the next break likely dictating direction. Resistance sits at 1.3724‑1.3747, while downside targets lie near 1.3687.
Trade Alert by Scott Kennedy 3/20/2026
Scott Kennedy released a series of Trade Alerts between March 16 and March 19, 2026, culminating in a detailed mREIT sector comparison. The Part 1 article examines Rithm Capital’s book value, sector valuation, and dividend yield against 17 peer mREITs following...
Super Week Delivered. Nobody Blinked.
US equity markets experienced a sharp reversal after a brief rally, erasing much of the early‑March small‑cap gains. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.41% YTD, a 9.3‑point drop in less than two weeks, while the S&P 500 fell 3.49% to four‑month...
Indicator of the Day (Video): Nasdaq – Declining Issues TRIX
The Nasdaq Declining Issues TRIX indicator measures momentum in the number of Nasdaq stocks closing lower than the previous session, using a triple‑exponential moving average to smooth out noise. Recent data shows the TRIX has slipped below zero, indicating bearish...
100 Years, 29,000 Stocks, 46 Winners: The Case for Indexing Just Got Stronger
A new century‑long study by Hendrik Bessembinder shows that just 46 out of nearly 30,000 U.S. stocks accounted for half of $91 trillion in shareholder wealth creation, down from 89 firms in his 2018 analysis. The median stock delivered a -6.9%...
Daily Memo: Belarusian Fertilizers, US-Japan Relations
The United States announced it will lift sanctions on two major Belarusian fertilizer producers and two state‑owned banks, including Belinvestbank, after a meeting between President Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. special envoy John Cole. The move is framed as a response to...
Annuities in 401(k) Plans Aren’t All Their Cracked Up to Be
A new study from the Center reveals that 83% of retirees encounter unexpected expenses each year, averaging about 10% of their annual income. To cover such shocks over a 25‑year retirement, households need an emergency fund ranging from $200,000 to...
Crude Oil Pulls White Sugar to a 4.75-Month High, but the Surplus That Capped the Last Rally Is Still There
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
This Gold Chart
The article showcases a gold DMA (moving‑average) chart that recently slipped below a key technical threshold, prompting a sharp sell‑off. It outlines four competing narratives: reporters link the decline to rising yields and inflation expectations, junior traders cite profit‑taking, advisory...
A Seventh Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Russia
On March 20 2026 the Central Bank of Russia trimmed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15.0%, the seventh reduction since the October 2024 peak of 21%. The cumulative easing amounts to six percentage points, the deepest policy shift in over two...
Malaysia Cracks Trump’s Tariff Wall
Malaysia announced it is terminating its customs agreement with the United States after a Supreme Court ruling declared the IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal. The original pact imposed a flat 19% tariff on most Malaysian exports, a rate now effectively cut in...
Brazil’s Record Harvest Pins Arabica While Robusta Finds a Fragile Floor in Tightening Stocks
Brazil's latest forecasts show a record 2026/27 Arabica harvest, driven by unusually benign weather and expanding warehouse stocks. The surge has pushed ICE Arabica inventories to multi‑month highs, eroding the weather‑risk premium and prompting sustained selling pressure. In contrast, Robustas...
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
A Cleaner Way to Compute Seasonal Vol
The author introduces a calendar‑month realized volatility (CMRV) metric that computes monthly volatility by annualizing the square‑root of the mean squared daily log returns, eliminating the overlap inherent in a trailing 20‑day window. This approach prevents a large earnings‑driven move...
Diesel Surge Lifts Spot Rates but Squeezes Fleet Margins
Recent diesel price surges lifted total spot rates for dry‑van, refrigerated and flatbed trucks to their highest levels since late 2022, adding more than 10 cents per mile. When fuel surcharges are removed, linehaul rates slipped 3.5‑8 cents per mile, cutting actual revenue...
Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
A Bridge Too Far
Trump signaled a possible off‑ramp for U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, prompting a modest dip in crude prices as Israel paused further strikes. Gulf hardliners, however, remain wary of a resilient Iran that could continue coercive oil tactics despite war...
Ridge Capital’s Mantra: “Never Lose Money”
Ridge Capital Northern Yield, launched in January 2023, has posted an annualized 14% return, buoyed by two near‑25% years before a softer 2025 amid tighter spreads. Lead manager Christoffer Malmström leveraged his distressed‑credit background to navigate default events, extracting value...
AXT Inc. (AXTI) Soars to All-Time High Firm Upbeat as Q1 Ends
AXT Inc. (NASDAQ:AXTI) surged to a record $58.13, closing up 19.13% as the first quarter ended. The rally was driven by the company’s upbeat Q1 outlook, anchored by strong demand for indium phosphide in AI infrastructure and progress on export...
Erasca (ERAS) Adds 13%; Soars 310% YTD
Erasca Inc. (NASDAQ:ERAS) surged 13.04% on Thursday, closing at $15.26, propelling its year‑to‑date gain to 310%. The rally follows upbeat analyst coverage and early clinical optimism for its pan‑RAS molecular‑glue degrader, ERAS‑0015. Early trial data revealed two confirmed and one...
BioCryst (BCRX) Rallies 7.10% on Acquisition Buzz
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) surged 7.10% to $9.81 after rumors of a takeover by a large‑cap U.S. biopharma surfaced. The company has not confirmed the speculation, but the market reacted strongly. BioCryst recently reported a dramatic earnings turnaround, posting $263.86 million net...
When the Market’s Most Important Average Falls: The “200-Day” Liquidation:
Major U.S. indices have closed below their 200‑day moving averages for the first time since the 2025 rally, prompting a coordinated sell‑off. The breach activated systematic strategies—CTAs, risk‑parity and momentum funds—leading to rapid de‑grossing and a sharp liquidity contraction. With...
Interview With The Building Financial Podcast February 2026.
The Macro Butler interviewed Junus Eu of The Building Financial Podcast, framing investing as a form of adulting guided by a clear roadmap. He emphasized using the business cycle as a financial GPS to pinpoint the right assets without relying...
The Coca-Cola Company (KO): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Analysts applied a discounted cash flow model to The Coca‑Cola Company, estimating an intrinsic share value of roughly $18‑19. The model uses an 8% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, and projects free cash flow reaching $6.7 billion by 2029, yielding a...
The Closer – Mystery Charts, Sector Streaks, Flow of Funds – 3/19/26
The energy sector has logged 49 consecutive days in overbought territory, marking the second‑longest streak on record. Intraday crude oil futures are being pushed by extreme positioning swings and thin liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data shows...
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
Defensive Tide Rising
Three of four intermarket signals have turned risk‑off as utilities outperform the S&P 500 and Treasuries attract safe‑haven flows. The S&P 500 slipped below its 200‑day moving average, triggering a shift from leveraged SSO to plain SPY exposure. Meanwhile, gold’s...
Daily Energy Report
The Daily Energy Report reframes Hormuz Strait risk by emphasizing crude quality over sheer volume, noting medium‑sour grades now dominate exports while light‑sour streams like Murban remain niche. Asia faces the steepest impact from any Hormuz disruption, prompting tighter crack...
Lawler: Some Observations on the February Existing Home Sales Release
The National Association of Realtors moved its existing‑home‑sales release about ten days earlier, a change that Tom Lawler says will likely generate larger-than‑usual revisions. January’s non‑seasonally adjusted sales were revised up by 5,000 units, pushing the SAAR to 4.02 million from...
10-Year TIPS Reopening Gets Real Yield of 1.896%
The Treasury announced a reopening of the 10‑year TIPS auction, delivering a real yield of 1.896%. The yield jumped noticeably, signaling heightened market sensitivity ahead of the weekend. Investors appeared reluctant to hold positions, prompting some traders to sit out...
How to Build a Retirement Spending Plan You’ll Actually Stick To
The article outlines a step‑by‑step approach to building a retirement spending plan that lasts. It stresses defining a concrete retirement year to align Social Security, Medicare enrollment, and income drawdowns. By reviewing current spending, projecting core expenses like housing and...
Best Student Loan Refinance Rates for March 19, 2026: Credible Leads At 3.67%
The College Investor reports that as of March 19, 2026, student‑loan refinance rates remain low, with Credible offering variable APRs as low as 3.67% and Earnest delivering the cheapest fixed APR at 3.71%. The article lists five top lenders, their...
Why Is Gold Melting?
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
Symmetry Builds Out Team with Two Analyst Additions
Symmetry Invest, the Aalborg‑based boutique asset manager, announced the hiring of two new investment analysts—Thomas Richard from Paris and Joseph Isaac Rein‑Saunders from Berlin. Richard joins after co‑managing European small‑ and micro‑cap funds, while Rein‑Saunders brings academic research and freelance...
Where Is Money Flowing Today?
The latest Finviz treemap visualizes today’s money flow across the U.S. equity market, spotlighting heavyweight names such as Microsoft, Google, Meta, Netflix, JPMorgan, Visa and Berkshire Hathaway. Large‑cap technology stocks dominate the top‑right quadrant, indicating strong inflows, while financials occupy...
US New Home Sales Collapse
U.S. new‑home sales plunged in February, posting a 9.5% month‑over‑month decline—the steepest drop since 2013. The slowdown coincided with mortgage rates hovering above 7%, weakening buyer affordability. Builder confidence fell to its lowest level since 2020, and unsold inventory rose...
Tom Hayes – Fox Business – Varney & Co – Appearance – 3/19/26
Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital, appeared on Fox Business on March 19, 2026 to discuss the U.S. two‑year Treasury yield climbing to 3.816%, up 4.6 basis points, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that stagflation is a “1970s...
Mandatum’s CTA Wins UCITS Hedge Award
Mandatum Managed Futures Fund was named Best Performing CTA Trend Following fund under $150 million for 2025 at the UCITS Hedge Awards, also topping two‑ and three‑year horizons. The systematic fund posted an 8.2% return in 2025, with 11.0% annualized over...
At the Money: Billionaire Divorce Planning
The Bloomberg "At the Money" episode explores how ultra‑wealthy divorces differ from ordinary splits, focusing on privacy concerns, complex estate structures, and liquidity challenges. Guest Patrick Kilbane explains that while the legal process mirrors standard divorces, a single tax mistake...
Supply Pullback Stabilizes Orange County Multifamily Market
Orange County’s multifamily market entered 2026 with moderated activity as developers sharply reduced new deliveries. Vacancy held steady at 3.8% while average asking rents slipped $9 but still rose 1.7% year‑over‑year. Fourth‑quarter 2025 saw a 26% drop in unit deliveries...
ZEQT vs VEQT vs XEQT: Why Is Everyone Ignoring This ETF?
ZEQT, VEQT and XEQT are Canada’s leading all‑equity asset‑allocation ETFs, but VEQT and XEQT command tens of billions in assets while ZEQT lags far behind. The three funds share almost identical global equity exposures, diversification across U.S., international and emerging...
Mar. 19: Cap. Mkts Tech, U/W, LO Jobs; Broker, Correspondent, Subservicer Oversight Tools IMB Cost Still $11k per Loan; STRATMOR...
The FHFA announced it will drop certain homeowners‑insurance requirements, which should lower costs for lenders and borrowers. CrossCountry Mortgage disclosed an agreement to acquire Summit Funding, expanding its presence on the West Coast and underscoring ongoing consolidation in residential lending....
Does Revenue Seasonality Translate to Vol Seasonality?
H&R Block (HRB) saw its implied volatility surge to a one‑year high after market chatter about AI disruptions. The company’s low P/E ratio and 16% earnings yield give it bond‑like characteristics, prompting the author to sell cash‑secured puts instead of...
The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs. Long Term
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
Hotel Valuations Stall Across Europe, Impacted by War, Instability and US Leadership
Hotel consultancy HVS reported that Europe’s hotel valuation index barely rose, expanding just 0.2% in 2025 despite robust travel demand. The continent logged three billion overnight stays, a 2.4% increase, driven largely by leisure tourists. Growth was uneven: Copenhagen posted...
Standard Bank Co-Arranges Bayport Mozambique’s Award-Winning Bond
Bayport Financial Services Mozambique issued a MZN 600 million dual‑tranche bond in October 2025, earning the Best Local Currency Bond – Financial Institutions award from Global Banking & Markets. Standard Bank acted as co‑arranger and bookrunner, guiding the structure and securing regulatory approvals....
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat rallied this morning as strength in the energy complex spilled over into grain markets. The rally is tied to heightened uncertainty from the expanding US‑Iran conflict, which has disrupted energy infrastructure and kept investors seeking safe‑haven...
Warren Buffett: 5 Subtle Habits That Quietly Build Massive Wealth For the Middle Class
Warren Buffett attributes his wealth to a handful of simple, repeatable habits rather than flashy deals. He consistently lives below his means, saves first, and channels surplus into investments. He invests heavily in personal education, thinks in decades, and avoids...
A Dollar Disaster Looms
Gold and silver prices are sliding as concerns mount over the dollar and the broader fiat currency system. The decline mirrors the 2008‑2009 financial crisis, when gold fell from $1,000 to $680 before rallying to a $1,920 peak in 2011....
China’s New 5-Year Plan: Preparing for a Hostile World
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...