Bayer Shares Briefly Dip After Activist Investor Offloads Millions of Dollars in Company Stock
Inclusive Capital Partners, an activist investment firm, sold roughly 8.5 million Bayer shares—about 0.9% of the company—for approximately $379 million. The transaction caused Bayer's stock to tumble around 3% before partially recovering. The sale follows Inclusive Capital’s earlier activism that helped oust former CEO Werner Baumann and pushed for a corporate breakup, though no breakup plan is currently on the table. Bayer’s new CEO Bill Anderson recently delivered a 2026 earnings outlook that fell short of market expectations, adding pressure on the firm’s turnaround efforts.
Can Options Volume Predict Market Returns?
A recent study examines the order imbalance of in‑the‑money S&P 500 options placed by public customers and finds it predicts market returns over a one‑ to three‑month horizon, extending up to nine months in some tests. The directional order imbalance (DOI)...
A Technical Look at the Broader US Stock Indices with a Bonus Look at Nvidia
Nvidia’s shares slipped below their 200‑day moving average at $178.78, marking the first breach since May 2025 and signaling a bearish tilt. The broader market mirrored this move, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also closing beneath their respective 200‑day...
Farage's Fossil Fuel Donors Profit From Iran War
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has created a sharp "war premium" that is boosting fossil‑fuel equities. Jeremy Hosking’s hedge fund, which manages roughly $3 billion, saw its oil, gas and coal holdings rise by more than $25 million since the war began. Hosking has...
💡Trade Idea for Tuesday, March 24, 2026
The author recommends a cash‑secured put trade on a stock that repeatedly retreats into a well‑defined price range. Premiums remain elevated following recent market weakness, making the option sell attractive. While maintaining a bullish long‑term view, the trader aims to...
Tech Falters While Energy Surges: Today's Market Analysis
The technology sector posted sharp declines on the day, with Microsoft down 2.67% and Oracle slipping 4.10%, signaling heightened bearish sentiment. In contrast, the energy sector rallied, led by Exxon Mobil’s 2.94% gain and Chevron’s 1.88% rise, buoyed by higher...
Crude Oil Futures Higher on the Day but Remains Below Target Bullish Bias Levels
Crude oil futures experienced a dramatic swing from $84.37 to $101.67 after President Trump’s Truth Social remarks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. The contract now sits near $92.68, just below the 50% midpoint of $93.02, keeping sellers in...
How to Make Your First Estimated Tax Payment
April 15 marks both the deadline to file 2025 returns and to make the first estimated tax payment for 2026. The Sunlight Tax newsletter walks readers through a no‑guesswork method to calculate and remit this payment, emphasizing cash‑flow considerations. It...
Danske Pauses Tactical Risk-Taking as All Eyes Turn to Oil and War
Danske Bank Asset Management has placed its Global Tactical Allocation strategy on hold, moving to a neutral stance across all tactical risk exposures due to heightened uncertainty from the Middle East war. Head of Macro and TAA Bo Bejstrup Christensen...
The Market Brief
President Trump announced a pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, sending oil prices sharply lower and triggering a rapid reversal across global risk assets. The market remains jittery as equities fluctuate and oil attempts to recover amid ongoing Middle...
Forgive Me Dr. Alhajji, I Was Unfamiliar With Your Game
Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the U.S. is a major winner from the Hormuz crisis, aligning with the November 2025 National Security Strategy that ties AI dominance to cheap, abundant energy. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas...
The Old Narratives Are Dead – Long Live American Energy Dominance
Recent Iranian missile strikes and drone attacks have caused the largest supply disruption in oil market history, removing roughly 8‑10 million barrels per day, including a 2 million‑bpd cut from Saudi Arabia and a 6.7 million‑bpd reduction across the Gulf. This shock has...
Trump 5 Day Pause; Trump Claims Talks, Iran Denies; Iran Still Attacks & Hormuz Shut | Rapid Read 24 Mar...
President Trump instructed the Pentagon to suspend planned strikes on Iranian power and energy facilities for five days, citing ongoing diplomatic contacts. Iran publicly rejected the notion of negotiations and warned it would continue mining operations in the Gulf of...
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
The IMF’s COFER database shows the U.S. dollar still commands roughly 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, keeping its status as the premier reserve currency. Over the past decade the euro and Chinese yuan have inched upward, while the British pound...
The FX Market Does Not Trade the Day It Trades the Clock
The piece contends that foreign‑exchange trading occurs in distinct liquidity pockets rather than a steady stream. Critical windows are the Tokyo 8:55 AM fix, the 7:00 AM London open, the 4:00 PM London WMR fix, and month‑end balance‑sheet rebalancing, each offering a unique...
Fastly (FSLY) Climbs to 4-Year High on Products Showcase
Fastly Inc. surged to a four‑year high of $28.78, up 14% intraday, after announcing its participation in the RSA Conference 2026 to showcase new security solutions. The stock closed at $28.75, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm. On the same day, Fastly...
The Collapse of Indra–EM&E Deal Tests Dan Loeb’s Playbook: Third Point’s Merger Setback:
Third Point’s high‑conviction merger‑arbitrage bet on the Indra Sistemas‑EM&E defense tie‑up collapsed, wiping out the fund’s European position. The breakup was driven by political push‑back, valuation disputes and integration complexity, sending both Spanish defense stocks lower. The failure has forced Dan...
Thanks For The Memory
President Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran, prompting a brief market rally, but analysts quickly shifted focus to the memory‑chip sector. AI‑driven demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM has turned the traditionally cyclical memory market into...
Working While You're Collecting Social Security
Choosing when to start Social Security benefits has lasting financial consequences, especially for those who keep working. In 2026 the earnings exemption is $24,480 for workers under full retirement age (FRA) and $65,160 after reaching FRA, with a $1‑for‑$2 and...
Jeremy Grantham on Market Psychology, AI, and Overinvestment Risk
Jeremy Grantham warns that AI hype mirrors past bubbles, emphasizing that transformative ideas can become overinvested. He notes that railroads, the internet, and AI share a pattern: obvious, serious ideas attract massive capital, leading to valuation excess. Grantham stresses separating...
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
Recent 13F filings reveal that top institutional investors added to Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP). AQR Capital led the charge with a 495,080‑share increase, while Gotham, Fairfax, and Point72 also expanded or initiated positions. The buying spans quantitative, deep‑value, and...
Scott Kennedy’s BDC Series: Blackstone Secured Lending’s NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers – Part 2 (Includes Cal...
Blackstone Secured Lending (BSL) reported its Q4 2025 results, showing a NAV increase to $1.12 per share and a dividend yield of 9.2%, positioning it ahead of eleven comparable BDC peers. The fund’s price‑to‑book multiple compressed to 0.9x, reflecting a modest...
Trump Claim of Productive Talks with Iran Greeted with Skepticism
President Trump announced a five‑day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, saying recent talks with Tehran were “very good and productive.” Iran’s parliament speaker rejected the claim, stating no negotiations had taken place and accusing the United States...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
Gasoline Prices Around the World
The average global gasoline price is $1.37 per liter as of March 16, 2026. Prices vary widely; wealthier nations generally pay more, while oil‑producing or poorer countries pay less. The United States is an outlier with low prices despite high income. Tax...
45x / 60% Back at Skechers, Deals Coming for StubHub and Turkish Airlines via Capital One Shopping and Offers
Capital One is running a one‑day promotion that awards 45 times Venture X miles through its Capital One Offers portal and up to 60 % cash back via the Capital One Shopping extension on Skechers purchases. The elevated rates are limited to today...
Heritage Global: A Distressed Asset Platform Trading at 5x EV/EBIT and Near Liquidation Value
Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ:HGBL) operates a multi‑segment distressed‑asset platform that trades at less than 70% of book value and roughly 5.5 × EV/EBIT, placing it near liquidation pricing. The San Diego‑based firm has posted profits every year since 2018 and exhibits counter‑cyclical...
Global Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
JMK Group Secures £48 Million for London Office Conversion
JMK Group has secured a £48 million (approximately $61 million) loan from OakNorth Bank and REL Finance to acquire and convert the nine‑storey Peninsular House office building on Lower Thames Street into a 260‑key hotel, pending planning approval. The development will provide...
Silver Daily Call for March 23rd, 2026
Silver plunged to a intraday low of $61.00 on March 23, marking its weakest level since December 12, as risk‑off sentiment swept markets. The metal quickly recovered, climbing back to $70.75 by late morning, erasing much of the early loss. Despite an...
The $826 Billion Shift: Why Metal ETFs Are Reshaping — and Distorting — the Future of Supply
Metal and mining exchange‑traded funds now control roughly $826 billion, with 84% allocated to physical metal ETFs—gold alone accounts for about $577 billion. By contrast, funds that own mining equities represent just over 12% of assets, leaving critical‑mineral ETFs at a modest...
🎯Covered Call Trade Management
A trader is leveraging today’s market rally to write a covered call on Opendoor Technologies Inc. The trade sells a 7.5‑strike call expiring in 32 days for a $0.06 premium, costing $6 to establish. The position projects a 14.14% annualized...
Career Risk and Conviction: Inside Jeremy Grantham’s Investment Philosophy
Jeremy Grantham, co‑founder of GMO, has built a reputation for spotting market bubbles and enduring career risk, from the Japanese asset surge to the dot‑com crash and the 2008 housing crisis. His quantitative value‑quality model delivered strong outperformance for decades,...
Tax Deductions Musicians Often Miss: Beyond the Basics
The article outlines a suite of often‑overlooked tax deductions that independent musicians can claim beyond the usual instrument and travel write‑offs. It details how home‑studio space, software subscriptions, education fees, conference travel, marketing costs, health‑related services, and insurance premiums qualify...
Increases CAPE Ratio Predictability with a Simple Adjustment
A new working paper demonstrates that a simple adjustment to the cyclically adjusted price‑earnings (CAPE) ratio—aligning index constituents and applying market‑cap weights—significantly sharpens its ability to forecast ten‑year equity returns. The revised Component CAPE delivers an out‑of‑sample R² of 0.575,...
The Regimes Are Dead. Long Live The Regimes.
Donald Trump announced a postponement of threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants, prompting a rapid rally in U.S. equities and a sharp decline in crude oil prices. CNBC seized on the move, wondering whether the market surge signaled the long‑awaited...
Who Is up and Down After the Venezuelan Cabinet Shuffle?
Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela’s vice‑president, executed a sweeping cabinet reshuffle, replacing roughly half of the ministers and dismissing the entire military high command. Long‑time defense minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a key power broker for over a decade, was removed from his post....
An Ugly Headline… and a Clean (Premium) Setup
Recent geopolitical tension and surprisingly high core inflation have driven market volatility to elevated levels, inflating option premiums across major indices. The author spotlights a clean premium opportunity by selling a short‑dated, out‑of‑the‑money call spread on the S&P 500. The structure...
First Call March 23, 2026
Hedge Fund Telemetry launched its “First Call” suite on March 23 2026, offering a sequence of timed market briefs for traders and institutional investors. The pre‑market note summarizes overnight price moves, macro data, and geopolitical events, while subsequent Mid‑Morning, Daily, and Week‑Ahead...
Former Pareto Trader Launches Hedge Fund From Trondheim
Jonas Kvalheim Klock, a former Pareto Securities trader, has founded Nidaros Equity Fund in Trondheim, launching in October 2025 with approximately $5.4 million in assets under management. The one‑person hedge fund employs a bottom‑up, high‑conviction long/short equity strategy focused on Nordic,...
When AI Erases Moats, What Happens to Markets?
The piece argues that AI will erode traditional competitive moats, making five‑year cash‑flow forecasts unreliable and forcing a shift from discounted‑cash‑flow models to valuations based on current cash flow multiples. Drawing on Elon Musk’s first‑principles thinking, it challenges the century‑old...
Using a HELOC to Fund a Child’s First Home
Parents can tap home equity via a HELOC to help their child’s first‑home purchase, but the way the funds are classified—gift or loan—drastically influences the child’s mortgage qualification. Lenders require a signed gift letter and clear transfer records, and timing...
S&P 500 Skyrockets as Trump Announces Ceasefire. Real TACO or Just Usual Jawboning?
U.S. equity markets surged as former President Donald Trump posted a cease‑fire announcement on Truth Social, prompting the S&P 500 to bounce sharply from near‑term lows. Technical charts show the index probing the 6,760 resistance level, with sellers poised to...
Checking In on SILA Realty Trust
Six quarters after its IPO, SILA Realty Trust reports mixed results. The health‑care REIT maintains a low 30% debt‑to‑gross‑assets ratio and 2.2% average rent escalators, while its weighted‑average lease term extends to ten years by 2025. However, a high dividend,...
9 Long-Term Habits to Build Lasting Wealth
The Substack post outlines nine long‑term habits designed to create lasting wealth, from paying yourself first to treating your personal brand like a CEO. It stresses asset acquisition, deep skill mastery, a robust emergency fund, and continuous investment in knowledge....
🌊 Poland's Miraculous Turnaround
Poland’s economy broke the $1 trillion GDP threshold, placing it among the world’s 20 largest economies, and posted a 3.6% growth rate in 2025 – the fastest among EU members in Q4. The surge follows a historic shift that began with...
FX Alert: When Everything Sells at Once, Buy the Dollar ?
The market is experiencing a broad liquidity withdrawal, turning the U.S. dollar into the primary exit asset as equities, bonds and precious metals sell simultaneously. Elevated oil prices are driving risk premia across asset classes, eclipsing central‑bank influence and tightening...
A Compounding Oil Shock: Part III
The article proposes a "Supply Accord" – a coordinated fiscal‑monetary framework to tackle a persistent, geopolitically‑driven oil shock that has moved from price spikes to real supply constraints. It argues that the Fed’s rate tool can protect the inflation anchor...
Tweet From X Worth Reading
Swiss wealth manager Dieter Lüscher warned that gold and silver are about to experience a sharp, engineered dip as large short positions and expiring options pressure prices downward. He says the low could arrive within days, after which a structural...
High Yield’s Allocation Dilemma in a Tight Spread Market
High‑yield bonds are trading at historically tight spreads, curbing any further price appreciation and leaving carry as the main source of return. Portfolio managers, like Veritas' Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi, warn that while the asset class still offers modest diversification, its downside...