The Wrap: Trump, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to 8%, while Treasury yields rise—2‑year notes hitting 3.93%—widening the term structure and pushing mortgage rates toward 6.5%. Crude oil remains above $100 per barrel, whereas gold has slipped more than $1,000 from its peak, reflecting volatile commodity dynamics. Analysts expect the Federal Open Market Committee may cut short‑term rates in April to cushion the inflation‑driven shock.
Things I Always Buy at the Dollar Tree to Save Money
The article outlines 14 categories of everyday items that can be bought at Dollar Tree to stretch household budgets, from cleaning supplies and paper products to pantry staples and seasonal decorations. By swapping name‑brand equivalents for the retailer’s $1 offerings, consumers...
Momentum Strategy for the S&P 500
An S&P 500 momentum strategy using a 12‑month simple moving average crossover signals long positions when the monthly close rises above the SMA and exits to cash when it falls below. Backtested from 1960 to present, a $100,000 seed would have...
Charlie Munger: 7 Wealth Mistakes Middle Class People Keep Making
Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman, outlines seven common wealth mistakes that trap middle‑class investors, from chasing quick returns to ignoring opportunity costs. He stresses that lasting wealth stems from patient compounding, simple strategies, and staying within one’s circle of...
Deep Dive: Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Will Hit Every Economy
The United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments and disrupting a wide array of petrochemical, industrial gas, and refined product flows. Prices for key commodities such...
Ukrainian Agriculture Stocks – the World’s Ultimate Land Bargain?
Four years after a 2022 primer warned that Ukrainian farmland was priced at just 10% of Polish values, the sector has proved remarkably resilient despite the ongoing war. The London‑listed agribusiness MHP SE has doubled its share price, posted a...
Pfizer Inc (PFE): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Our weekly DCF model values Pfizer Inc. at roughly $14‑15 per share, far below its current trading level near $27. The analysis uses a 9% discount rate, 2% terminal growth, and projects free cash flow stabilizing around $10 billion by 2029,...
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) — Deep Value In a Revitalized Global Apparel Retailer
Abercrombie & Fitch has completed a multi‑year transformation that lifted gross margins to 61% and generated over $350 million of free cash flow. The retailer now reports $5.27 billion in revenue, $699 million operating income and a net margin of roughly 10%. Valuation...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9089 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
Social Security Spousal Benefits
Social Security spousal benefits stop growing once the spouse reaches their own Full Retirement Age (FRA), so delaying a claim until age 70 yields no higher payment. The benefit is capped at 50% of the worker’s Primary Insurance Amount, regardless...
Wrapping It Up
The author reflects on entering retirement’s “fourth quarter,” describing a shift to a passive, globally diversified low‑cost index fund portfolio. He notes upcoming tax complexities, especially looming Required Minimum Distributions, and the decision to claim Social Security early while staying...
Canadian Farmers Pinched by Iran War as Cost of Key Fertilizer Ingredient Climbs – by Darius Snieckus (National Observer –...
Canadian farmers face looming fertilizer shortages as the U.S.-Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for phosphate and sulphur shipments. Canada imports over 2.6 million tonnes of phosphate annually, with roughly 80% coming via the United States, which...
TMTB Mid-Day Wrap: Reddit, Applovin, META Weakness; TMT Momentum Worst Day in Years; Netflix Price Increase?; Memory/Semicap/Optical Unwind
The Nasdaq‑linked QQQ index dropped 2% as 10‑year Treasury yields neared 4.5% and oil prices rose 5%, tightening the macro backdrop for tech investors. Meta fell 7% after a July verdict holding it and Google liable for addictive product designs,...
Gold Demand Just Broke a Record. Supply Can’t Keep Up
A Reuters poll predicts gold will set another record in 2026 as central banks, 95% of those surveyed, plan to increase holdings to historic levels. U.S. demand surged 140% in 2025 to 679 tonnes, while ETF inflows added 437 tonnes,...
Is It Time To De-Risk Your Portfolio? | Ted Oakley
Ted Oakley, founder and CEO of Oxbow Advisors, urges investors to keep 20‑25% of their portfolios in cash or Treasury bills as stock valuations remain extreme and earnings multiples risk compression. He warns that both declining earnings and falling multiples...
Ways Weekly Top Stock Pick Strategy Helps Investors Track Promising Opportunities Consistently
The article outlines a structured weekly stock‑pick strategy that guides investors through disciplined market analysis, sector evaluation, and technical indicators. By reviewing financial statements, price movements, earnings, and macro data on a seven‑day cycle, analysts can spot short‑term momentum and...
Crane Bond Fund Symposium 2026: The Case for Fixed Income in Sustainable Investing
At the Crane Bond Fund Symposium 2026 in Boston, Henry Shilling argued that sustainable fixed‑income investing is vastly under‑represented, accounting for less than 1% of the $7.6 trillion taxable and municipal bond market. He highlighted the structural fit of bonds—explicit capital...
5 Most Undervalued Cloud Stocks to Buy According to Analysts
BlackLine (NASDAQ:BL) is highlighted as one of the five most undervalued cloud stocks by analysts. Approximately 44% of analysts remain bullish while 50% are cautious, and the consensus price target of $50 suggests about 28% upside from current levels. BMO...
Is Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) One of the Tech Stocks to Sell Right Now According to Cathie Wood?
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) has been flagged by Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management as a tech stock to sell, after the firm cut its stake by 15% in the fourth quarter, reducing holdings to 114,066 shares worth roughly $2.06 million. The...
Adecco Group Taps Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) for Agentforce Following Nvidia Pact
Adecco Group signed a multi‑year agreement with Salesforce to obtain unlimited global access to the Agentforce 360 platform, a suite that powers agentic AI across enterprise workflows. The deal enables Adecco to accelerate AI‑driven service delivery, boosting speed, quality and reliability...
Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) Enhances Agentic AI Access at Low Cost with GitLab 18.10
GitLab unveiled version 18.10, introducing the GitLab Duo Agent platform that lets customers tap into agentic AI capabilities at a low cost, even on the free tier through a monthly GitLab Credits commitment. The new model gives development teams visibility...
BTIG Cuts Nexxen International Ltd. (NEXN) Price Target But Asserts Buy Stance
BTIG reaffirmed a Buy rating on Nexxen International Ltd. but lowered its price target to $9 from $10. The ad‑tech firm posted Q4 FY2025 revenue of $101 million, slightly beating estimates, and forecast ex‑TAC revenue of $375‑$390 million, indicating about 8% YoY...
From Digital AI to Physical AI — Portfolio Construction for a New AI Investment Cycle
A free, CE‑credit webinar on March 27 will explore how advisors can reshape portfolios for the next AI investment cycle. Host Michael Gayed and KraneShares strategist Derek Yan will examine the S&P 500’s extreme concentration—top ten stocks now hold over...
The Cargo Cooldown Hits Southern California’s Warehouse Market
January 2026 saw the combined Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle 831,412 loaded import TEUs, a 13% year‑over‑year decline as the tariff‑driven surge of the prior year faded. The slowdown is reflected in rising industrial vacancy across Southern...
HECM for Purchase for a Multigenerational Home | 2026 Guide
The 2026 guide explains how a Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for Purchase lets borrowers 62 and older acquire a primary residence—often a multigenerational property—by making a sizable down payment and avoiding monthly mortgage payments. The loan covers the balance,...
TransDigm: Mini-Monopolies at 30,000 Feet
TransDigm Group has built a portfolio of niche aerospace components that function as mini‑monopolies, giving the company strong pricing power and margins above 30 %. Its aggressive acquisition strategy—over 30 bolt‑on purchases in the last ten years—has driven compound earnings growth...
The Incredible Structural Alpha
The study “The Incredible Structural Alpha” by Andrew Berkin and Christine Wang argues that alpha is not dead but hidden in portfolio construction. Using a 60‑year U.S. equity sample (July 1963‑June 2023) they re‑examined the classic 5 × 5 size‑value grid popularized by Fama...
Full Time Investing Countermeasures
Dean outlines his personal countermeasure system for transitioning to full‑time investing after leaving a managerial role as a mechanic. He establishes numeric portfolio thresholds and a four‑stage response plan that escalates from cutting luxury expenses to re‑entering the workforce. The...
Small-Cap Mailbag: Felix Group (ASX: FLX)
Felix Group (ASX: FLX) posted Q2 FY26 results showing ARR of $12.2 M (≈$7.9 M USD), a 47% year‑over‑year rise driven largely by the Nexvia acquisition. Organic ARR stalled at $8.8 M (≈$5.8 M USD), up only 6% YoY, and the company remains unprofitable, posting a...
How to Get Arbed with Perfect Information
The piece uses Doug Costa’s coin‑flip contract example to illustrate the power of the no‑arbitrage axiom in derivative pricing. By calculating the no‑arbitrage price and delta hedge, it shows that even with perfect knowledge of true probabilities, a trader can...
Markets Are Decoupling Again, Based On Return Correlations
A rolling‑window analysis of daily returns shows the median correlation across major asset classes has slipped to 0.42, down from above 0.65 a few years ago. This lower correlation indicates that diversification benefits have strengthened in the current market environment....
The Supertrend Indicator Backtested
The Supertrend indicator, a volatility‑adjusted trend‑following tool, was backtested on weekly S&P 500 data from 1960 to the present. Using a 10‑period lookback and a multiplier of three, the simple buy‑on‑cross and sell‑on‑cross rules generated a 44.46% gain on a single...
Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed While Bonds and Stocks Weaken
The U.S. dollar is trading in a narrow range against G10 currencies while equities and bonds are under pressure. A potential escalation in the Middle East, highlighted by Tehran’s rejection of a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, is dampening risk appetite. Oil...
Resort Growth Drives European Branded Residence Pipeline
The Savills report forecasts 1,850 branded‑residence projects across Europe by 2032, representing 113 percent growth, with Turkey topping the pipeline. Non‑hospitality brands such as Pininfarina, Missoni and Nobu are expanding, pushing average brand premiums from 29 percent to 38 percent. Stand‑alone projects will...
Atlas Global Macro Builds on Comeback with New Danish Feeder
Atlas Global Macro, last year’s top‑performing Nordic hedge fund, has launched a Danish feeder on the Fundmarket platform to channel new capital into its Luxembourg‑domiciled Fund 2. Fund 2 mirrors the original macro strategy but strips out legacy Russian holdings...
KOSPI Plummets 3.22%: 3.11 Trillion KRW Foreign Exit Signals AI Positioning Shift
The KOSPI slid 3.22% to 5,460.46 points after foreign investors liquidated roughly 3.11 trillion KRW – about $2.3 billion USD – primarily from the electronics sector. The sell‑off was led by semiconductor names, with SK Hynix tumbling 6.23% and Nvidia down 4.16%,...
Svelland Appoints Head of Quant Research From Shell
Svelland Capital has appointed Laurent Hoffmann, formerly head of quantitative research at Shell, as its new Head of Quantitative Research. Hoffmann brings experience across power, gas, carbon markets and crude oil derivatives, complementing Svelland’s commodity‑focused, long/short strategy. The Oslo‑London fund,...
China’s $1.2 Trillion Export Surplus Ghost Economy
China’s annual trade surplus now exceeds $1.2 trillion, yet official foreign‑exchange reserves remain around $3 trillion. Export firms split operations between domestic manufacturers and offshore entities in Hong Kong, Singapore or the UAE, invoicing only production costs locally while retaining full profits abroad...
Trust the Dollar, Not the Treasury
Investors are demanding a higher risk premium on U.S. Treasuries, while confidence in the U.S. dollar remains largely intact. A recent study measuring convenience yields shows a sharp decline for short‑term and 10‑year Treasuries since 2024, but the dollar’s convenience...
Meanwhile, Iron Ore Is Stuffed
Iron ore prices have plunged as the market reacts to ongoing geopolitical conflicts rather than fundamentals of the metal itself. Rising input costs—particularly energy and logistics—are squeezing steel producers, prompting a sharp slowdown in production. This combination has turned the...
Here Comes the Crash
Bond market volatility is accelerating, with the MOVE index climbing to 103.01 by mid‑2026. The surge coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, signaling heightened uncertainty in fixed‑income markets. Simultaneously, the equity‑focused VIX index mirrors this turbulence,...
Start Here: Welcome to Clayton Capital Insights
Clayton Capital Insights, a Substack run by value investor Nick Clayton, showcases a concentrated, margin‑of‑safety approach that generated a 41% return in 2025. The strategy typically holds 7‑15 high‑conviction positions, emphasizing strong balance sheets, disciplined position sizing, and capital allocation...
Unknown Traders Made a Fortune Shorting Oil 15 Minutes Before Trump Reversed Iran Threat
On Tuesday morning, oil futures trading surged dramatically as 734 contracts changed hands between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT, jumping to 2,168 contracts in the following minute—16 times the day’s average volume. Bloomberg valued the contracts traded in that 60‑second window at...
Evil RBA Snuffs Out Economy
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has accelerated its tightening cycle, pushing the cash rate to 4.35% as inflation remains above target. The aggressive stance has sharply increased borrowing costs for households and businesses, curbing consumption and investment. Critics argue...
The Death by a Thousand Taps Economy
The post examines how a cascade of tiny digital purchases—dubbed the "death by a thousand taps"—undermines financial goals, drawing on interviews with twelve women across global cities. It highlights that convenience, subscription creep, and buy‑now‑pay‑later (BNPL) services erode budgets more...
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Trump to China in May; Iran War; Manus Mess; Mexico Heading for the Trade Doghouse
President Donald Trump announced a two‑day visit to Beijing on May 14‑15, contingent on the Iran war ending by May 13. The trip follows his public statement linking the cease‑fire to his diplomatic agenda. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice...
Venezuela Oil Output Rises to 1.1 Mln Bpd as Sector Recovery Gains Traction
Venezuela’s oil production climbed to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from about 942,000 bpd in January. The rebound reflects easing U.S. sanctions, better access to diluents and a modest return of export flows, bringing output back to pre‑disruption...
Trump May Announce Iran Ceasefire Even WITHOUT a Deal, Israeli Media Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a public cease‑fire announcement with Iran as early as Saturday, even if no formal agreement is in place. Israeli officials, cited by outlets such as N12 and Al Qahera, view the move as...
Fed's Miran, Trump's Puppet at the Bank, Calls for Rate Cuts, Like He Always Does
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...