Dispatch€s From Frankfurt - ECB: Graduated Response
The European Central Bank’s annual Frankfurt conference highlighted a sober mood as policymakers grapple with the lingering energy‑price shock and geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East. President Christine Lagarde’s keynote outlined a "graduated response" strategy, emphasizing scenario‑based analysis rather than a binary policy choice. The ECB will monitor second‑round wage and price effects closely, using its wage tracker to gauge inflation dynamics. Overall, the central bank signals a measured stance, avoiding a forceful tightening unless inflation proves persistently high.
How the Stock Market Performs After a Correction
A new analysis of S&P 500 data from 1950‑2026 examines how the market rebounds after 10%, 20% and 30% drawdowns. The study finds that, on average, investors who bought at those lows were up 15%, 17% and 21% after one year,...
Is It Too Late To Build Wealth? Starting at 35, 45, 55, or Beyond
The article argues that building wealth is never too late, whether you start at 35, 45, or 55, and outlines practical steps to catch up. It highlights how consistent investing, income growth, and automation can generate substantial retirement balances despite...
I Bond’s Fixed Rate Is Likely to Hold at 0.90% at May 1 Reset
U.S. Treasury I‑Bonds are expected to keep their fixed component at 0.90% when the next rate reset occurs on May 1, leaving the composite yield at 4.03% for the full six‑month period. The stable fixed rate preserves the bond’s attractive inflation‑adjusted...
A Time for Caution
The My Trend Asset Allocation Model has consistently outperformed the traditional 60/40 stock‑bond benchmark on an out‑of‑sample basis, delivering higher returns while maintaining comparable risk levels. Its trend‑following methodology spans a broad set of global equity markets and commodity prices,...
Deckers Outdoor Stock Analaysis: Is the 15x PE a Screaming Buy or a Value Trap?
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is trading at roughly 15 times forward earnings, a 50 percent discount from its all‑time high where the multiple peaked above 30 x. The company boasts a fortress balance sheet—zero debt, multi‑billion‑dollar cash, and an asset‑light supply chain—but its revenue...
Ukrainian Strikes Cause “Most Serious Threat” To Russian Oil Exports Since War Began
Ukrainian drone strikes on the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust‑Luga and the Kirishi refinery have knocked out roughly half of Russia's oil export capacity, the most severe disruption since the 2022 invasion began. The attacks, combined with recent seizures...
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 29 March 2026
The S&P 500 slipped through a pivotal support zone this week, handing control to bearish forces. Despite the downside, implied correlation metrics and heightened leveraged‑ETF activity suggest a short‑term bounce may be on the horizon. Longer‑term cycle gauges are flashing warnings...
Asian Market Sense - Data Impacting Asia March 30 - 3 April. Holiday Shortened for Many Markets. US Jobs, PMI's,...
Markets entered the week amid heightened volatility, with the VIX breaking above 30 and equity indices in the US and Europe closing lower. A holiday‑shortened week places the crucial US non‑farm payrolls and a suite of Asian PMI releases at...
Evaluating Option-Based Strategies and Dollar-Cost Averaging
A recent study re‑examines classic passive option strategies using actual options data from 2012‑2023 and finds that simple call‑write or put‑write approaches no longer deliver superior risk‑adjusted returns versus the S&P 500. The protective‑put (PPUT) strategy, especially when modified to skip...
The Illusion of the BRICS as a «Bric-À-Brac»: Why the West Is Wrong to Underestimate the Resilience of BRICS+
The article argues that Western portrayals of the BRICS+ as a disjointed "bric-à-brac" underestimate its growing resilience, especially as India assumes the 2026 presidency amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite criticism over heterogeneity, the bloc is expanding its economic infrastructure through...
What Do Aircraft Maintenance Shortages Mean for Investors
North America faces a shortfall of roughly 17,000 aircraft maintenance technicians in 2026, widening the gap between a growing fleet and available labor. The deficit is inflating wages, pushing labor to nearly a third of total MRO costs and extending...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review): 30th March – 3rd April 2026
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
Understanding the Bond in Finance: Meaning, Types, and How They Work
A bond is a debt instrument where investors lend money to governments, corporations, or municipalities in exchange for periodic interest payments and return of principal at maturity. The article explains core features such as face value, coupon rate, maturity, and...
George Answers Your Questions: Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe
George Friedman argues the Trump administration’s push to destabilize Iran is less about Tehran itself and more about choking China’s future oil supply. He links this strategy to the 2019‑2020 U.S.‑backed regime change in Venezuela, suggesting a pattern of using...
Some Final Words on the Market Outlook
The author announces retirement at the end of March and publishes a final strategy note on the intermediate‑term stock outlook. The piece highlights that the long‑term timing model remains bullish on equities, suggesting continued upside potential. A technical analysis review...
The China 5: EVs Accelerate, Dollar Shortage Bites, Pork Crisis Hits
China’s electric‑vehicle market now commands over half of new car sales, propelling record‑high export volumes that generated a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Yet most of those earnings sit offshore, creating a hidden domestic dollar shortage that hampers imports and weakens internal...
Easter Trading Strategy: Does the Stock Market Rally Before the Holiday?
The Easter trading strategy exploits a seasonal rally that consistently appears on the Thursday before Good Friday, the market’s last trading day of the week. Backtests using the S&P 500 since 1960 show a 0.35% average gain when buying at Wednesday’s...
Prepping to Pull the Trigger
A retiree is approaching a 15% rebalance trigger as the Vanguard Developed Asia Pacific fund sits at a 14% loss. Simultaneously, a sizable after‑tax cash reserve from a business sale sits in a money‑market fund, outperforming other holdings. The investor...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 30th, 2026
The USDCAD pair surged sharply last week as investors fled to the U.S. dollar, pushing the pair toward the 1.4000 psychological barrier. Meanwhile, traditional safe‑haven assets such as gold, equities and cryptocurrencies weakened, reflecting a broad risk‑off mood. The latest...
Quick Coal Vs. Gas Thoughts
At CERAWeek in Houston, industry leaders highlighted a rapid shift from coal to natural gas in power generation. The discussion, led by coal specialist Ernie Thrasher of XCoal, underscored falling coal demand, tighter coal‑gas price spreads, and mounting regulatory pressure...
Managing Long-Term Care Risk in Retirement
Long‑term care (LTC) is a high‑severity, low‑frequency risk that can derail retirement plans because Medicare and most private health policies do not cover custodial services. Median costs range from $5,000‑$6,000 per month for assisted living to over $9,000 for skilled‑nursing...
DECOUPLING: Gold Ignores Oil and Stocks Correlation, Signaling a New Market Era?
Gold and silver surged today while the S&P 500 fell nearly 800 points and crude oil breached $100 per barrel, breaking the recent pattern where rising oil and falling stocks dragged precious metals lower. The Gold‑to‑Oil ratio, which had been...
Time to Be Fearful
An investor over‑committed to oil stocks and energy ETFs after noticing falling gasoline prices, seeing his portfolio halve before a rebound restored and grew his position. The experience left him alternating between panic at losses and anxiety about missing further...
Five Year US Treasury CDS
The five‑year U.S. Treasury credit default swap (CDS) curve has surged since late 2024, spiking amid heightened geopolitical tension and domestic policy scrutiny. The graph shows a sharp rise around July 2025, coinciding with the investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell,...
Hedge Fund and Insider Trading News: Paul Singer, Seth Klarman, Crispin Odey, Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Millennium Management, Saba Capital...
Prominent hedge fund figures disclosed divergent strategies as Paul Singer dismissed the notion of a talent war, citing a robust market and higher fees. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Seth Klarman redirected $600 million into three new positions while shedding a large Alphabet...
Mortgage Rates Inch Up to Another Long-Term High
U.S. mortgage rates edged higher on March 27, reaching a 30‑year fixed rate of 6.64%, the highest level in eight months. Lenders initially posted a top‑tier rate near 6.7% before trimming it mid‑day as bond market movements softened. The adjustment...
Uncertainty Around Social Security, Taxes, and Healthcare Is Bad for Households – and the Economy
Recent research by Greenwald Research, partnered with Jackson National Life, surveyed 1,443 near‑retirees and retirees with at least $100,000 in investable assets about policy uncertainty surrounding Social Security, Medicare, taxes and federal debt. The findings reveal that 21% of unretired...
Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. Q4 FY2025 Update – (XLY)
Auxly Cannabis Group posted Q4 FY2025 revenue of C$40.1 million, up 16% YoY, and an adjusted EBITDA of C$12.5 million, delivering a 31% margin that beat expectations by roughly 20%. While revenue missed consensus by about 2%, the company highlighted strong mix‑shift...
Will QatarEnergy's LNG Fiasco Derail Goldman's Prewar View Of A Mega LNG Wave
QatarEnergy announced that an Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan facility has knocked out roughly 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. The outage translates to about $20 billion in lost annual...
Lyft Launches 60-Day Gas Relief Program for Drivers Offering up to 98 Cents per Gallon in Savings
Lyft has launched a 60‑day gas‑relief program for its drivers, running from March 27 to May 26. The initiative provides cash‑back on Lyft Direct debit card purchases (1% for Gold/Platinum, 2% for Elite) plus an additional 14 cents per gallon through Upside and...
![[Live 3/31] SoFi Plus Now Costs $10/Month (Removes Free Option) + 4.5% Savings Rate](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://www.doctorofcredit.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/sofi.png)
[Live 3/31] SoFi Plus Now Costs $10/Month (Removes Free Option) + 4.5% Savings Rate
SoFi is ending the free SoFi Plus subscription, charging every member $10 per month starting April 1, 2026. The plan now includes a 4.5% APY on balances up to $20,000, a modest bump from the 4.25% baseline. However, the extra...
BUYING GOLD AGAIN
Investor Kevin Muir’s latest column signals a renewed appetite for gold as a hedge against rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. He notes that central banks are rebuilding reserves, while retail investors are turning to physical bullion after a prolonged period...
Logistical Complications for Russian Energy Exports
Russia's oil export revenues have resumed growth after four years of decline, buoyed by higher energy prices and a temporary U.S. sanctions easing. However, the country's ability to capitalize on this rebound is constrained by aging western pipelines and ports...
Unlocking Hidden Patterns: How Daily Returns Predict Future Stock Performance
Researchers Cakici, Fieberg, Neszveda, Bianchi and Zaremba introduced the Daily Return Information (DRI) signal, extracting chronological and rank information from a month’s daily returns using elastic‑net regression. The resulting Daily Return Information Factor (DRIF) delivers about 1.57% monthly (≈19% annualized)...
Let's Take a Moment to Appreciate the Benefits of Diversification 🙏
U.S. equities have retreated, with the S&P 500 sliding about 7% from its January 27 high of 6,978. The decline hits investors heavily weighted in broad large‑cap index funds, underscoring the pain of limited diversification. At the same time, the so‑called...
Digital Engagement's Fat Tail Risk?
Meta was hit this week with two high‑profile lawsuits—one in Los Angeles over algorithmic addiction and another in New Mexico over child sexual exploitation—resulting in $375 million in civil penalties and $6 million in damages, respectively. The penalties are modest compared with...
What Is the 2026 Senior Housing Outlook?
Senior housing in 2026 is experiencing a rare convergence of strong demand, constrained supply, and renewed investor confidence. The U.S. 80‑plus population is projected to grow 36.6% over the next decade, while more than 10,000 Americans turn 65 each day,...
Indicator of the Day (Video): Volatility Index – CBOE Crude Oil
The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) closed at 92.37 on March 26, 2026, marking a 2.45% increase from the prior session. Brent crude futures traded at $107.10 per barrel, reflecting strong price momentum. The uptick in OVX suggests growing...
🎯 Take Profit Alert For $ONDS Cash Secured Put
Edward Corona announced the closure of a cash‑secured put on Ondas Holdings (ONDS) after collecting a $180 premium and realizing a $123 profit, representing a 68.33% capture of the premium. The trade was a -6 Apr 2 $7.5 cash‑secured put...
Don't Delay Spousal Social Security Benefits
Farm couples often have a primary wage‑earning spouse while the other manages the household and farm chores without direct pay. When Social Security benefits begin, the stay‑at‑home spouse is eligible for a spousal benefit equal to half of the primary...
News Roundup for March 27, 2026
U.S. buyers are increasingly scouting Ontario cottage properties, yet transaction volumes stay in a holding pattern as price pressures persist. Environmental groups have mobilized against a proposed residential‑commercial development in northeast Pickering, citing habitat loss and water‑quality risks. Ontario’s already...
Leave Your Valuables on the Way Out
Turkey’s central bank sold roughly $3 billion of gold last week, cutting its reserves to 772 tonnes – the steepest weekly decline since August 2018. The sale is part of $26 billion in foreign‑currency sales since the Iran‑related war began, wiping about $35 billion from...
Rick Rule Says This Gold Stock Panic Looks Like a Buyer Opportunity
Veteran resource investor Rick Rule warns that the recent sharp sell‑off in gold equities is less a crisis than a buying window for disciplined, long‑term investors. He argues that focusing on a "shopping list" of high‑quality names, rather than trying...
Why 'New' Value Stocks Outperform: The Hidden Driver Of Value Investing
A January 2026 paper by Linda Chen, Wei Huang and George Jiang finds that roughly half of the stocks classified as value or growth each year are “new” entrants, having switched categories after a two‑year gap. The authors show that the...
March Futures Expiry
Silver’s open interest has fallen to its lowest level in over two decades, suggesting the metal is deeply oversold and may soon reverse higher. Gold also shows weakness, with Comex open interest under 400,000 contracts and prices testing key moving...
The Thai Baht Remains Under Pressure
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
The Wrap: Trump, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
Things I Always Buy at the Dollar Tree to Save Money
The article outlines 14 categories of everyday items that can be bought at Dollar Tree to stretch household budgets, from cleaning supplies and paper products to pantry staples and seasonal decorations. By swapping name‑brand equivalents for the retailer’s $1 offerings, consumers...