Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split in monetary stance could strain global liquidity and heighten market volatility. Political rhetoric adds further uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Veeva Model Update
The author has released an updated financial model for Veeva Systems, incorporating the latest quarterly data and revised assumptions. The update follows a series of prior deep‑dive analyses published in September 2024 and December 2023. The new model adjusts growth...
Indicator of the Day (Video): Health Care Advance Decline Percent
The Indicator of the Day highlights the Health Care Advance‑Decline Percent, a breadth metric tracking the proportion of advancing versus declining stocks within the health‑care sector. The accompanying chart shows the daily advance‑decline ratio alongside the XLV ETF price trend,...
The 401(k) Rollover Mistake That Cost Me 40% of My Savings
A finance author lost 40% of her 401(k) by using an indirect rollover, depositing the check into a personal account and missing the 60‑day deadline. The IRS then applied a 10% early‑withdrawal penalty, mandatory 20% tax withholding, and treated the...
Why Do Rich People Still Borrow Money?
Wealthy individuals increasingly turn to debt as a strategic tool rather than a liability. By borrowing against real estate or securities, they avoid triggering capital‑gains taxes, preserve compounding returns, and diversify cash exposure. Newer options‑based structures such as box‑spread loans...
Oil Price Manipulation, an Unrecognized Stratagem and an Unhinged Plan
Governments are scrambling to curb soaring oil prices after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut roughly 20% of global supply. The International Energy Agency authorized a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, equivalent to about 20...
Demystifying Derivative Finance: A Comprehensive Guide to What It Is and How It Works
Derivative finance encompasses contracts whose value is tied to an underlying asset such as stocks, commodities, currencies, or interest rates. These instruments—futures, options, forwards, and swaps—are traded on regulated exchanges or over‑the‑counter, offering standardized or customized terms. Leverage allows participants...
Chaos of War Bolsters 10-Year Real Yield Heading Into This Week’s Auction
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 15 March 2026
The latest ChartStorm weekly review finds the S&P 500 entrenched in bearish technical territory, yet market metrics indicate an oversold condition that could set the stage for a short‑term rebound. Historical patterns suggest rebounds often follow similar dips, offering a glimmer...
Important Questions for Both Bulls and Bears
The article outlines the author’s suite of market‑timing models, highlighting the “Ultimate Market Timing Model” as a long‑term framework that produces only a few actionable signals each decade. It contrasts this with shorter‑horizon models that generate more frequent alerts. The...
Reversal Day Strategy For The Markets
The article outlines a bullish reversal‑day trading model that enters long positions when a lower low coincides with a higher close and the 5‑day RSI falls below 35. Applied to the gold ETF GLD, the backtest shows an average 1.5%...
Oil At US$250/Bbl?
Escalating Gulf tensions have reignited a sharp rally in oil, with some analysts speculating prices could approach $250 per barrel. The piece ties this surge to a concurrent rise in gold, arguing that the gold‑oil ratio serves as a key...
12 Most Undervalued Financial Stocks to Buy Now
The article spotlights twelve financial stocks that appear undervalued relative to historic multiples, citing resilient credit conditions and higher net interest margins driven by elevated rates. It references McKinsey’s view that operational precision will outweigh sheer balance‑sheet size in generating...
5 Most Undervalued Financial Stocks to Buy Now
Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) slipped 0.37% as UBS and Goldman Sachs trimmed price targets to $48 and $46 respectively, shifting to neutral and sell ratings. The firm reported $277.7 billion in assets under management, buoyed by $8.9 billion of market appreciation and $4.2 billion of...
Retail Options Trading and Gambling Behavior
Retail investors treat stock options like gambling, driving higher trading volumes in states with strong gambling cultures. Researchers built a Google Search Volume Index to capture option‑related attention, finding spikes around earnings announcements and other firm‑specific news. The study shows...
12 Most Profitable Blue Chip Stocks to Invest In Now
The article lists the 12 most profitable blue‑chip stocks, selected by net income, margins and hedge‑fund ownership as of Q3 2025. It highlights JPMorgan Private Bank’s Stephen Parker urging diversification, volatility‑focused option strategies, and building a “shopping list” amid short‑term market...
This 9% Yielder Gives You Databricks, Anthropic, And ByteDance At A 12% Discount
The BlackRock Science and Technology Term Trust (BSTZ) offers a 9% annualized yield and trades about 12% below net asset value, giving retail investors exposure to private AI leaders like Databricks, Anthropic and ByteDance. About 38.5% of its $1.7 billion portfolio...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 16-20th March 2026
The week ahead is dominated by high‑profile diplomatic and monetary events, starting with a US‑China meeting in Paris that will discuss extending the tariff truce and a 25 million‑ton soybean purchase agreement. Nvidia’s GTC will showcase its Vera Rubin GPU roadmap...
Recommended Weekend Reads
The curated weekend reads reveal that the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly one‑third of global seaborne fertilizer shipments and driving urea prices up about 30% in a month. The disruption exposes the...
East Asia Oil Import Pincer Beckons Bond Backstop
The outbreak of the Iran war has jolted East Asian markets, exposing the region’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East oil imports. A trade‑risk ranking flags the Philippines and Vietnam as the most vulnerable, while China continues sourcing from Tehran and Russia...
MiB: Matt Cherwin, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital
Matt Cherwin, co‑founder and CIO of the newly launched Marek Capital, sat down for a Risk and Reward interview to discuss the firm’s investment philosophy and market outlook. Cherwin brings 16 years of senior experience from JPMorgan, where he oversaw...
The IBS Indicator: The Powerful Indicator You Have Never Heard Of
The Internal Bar Strength (IBS) indicator measures a stock’s closing price relative to its daily range, oscillating between 0 and 1. A low IBS suggests the close is near the day’s low (oversold), while a high IBS indicates a close...
Too Safe
Financial planners often advise keeping three to six months of salary in a safe, liquid account for emergencies. The article argues that this approach imposes a significant opportunity cost, as the funds could earn substantially higher returns in a diversified...
The Market Is Punishing the Equity. The Bond Is Along for the Ride. That Is the Opportunity.
An A+ rated corporate bond is trading 50 basis points wider than its credit rating suggests, reflecting a rare disconnect between market perception and fundamentals. The issuer’s balance sheet shows liquid assets exceeding total debt, and fee‑related earnings cover interest...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 16th, 2026
EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory...
Weekly Recap (3/13/2026)
The weekly recap highlights a sharp rise in oil to $99 amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, pressuring equities and widening the S&P 500 correction. Gold and silver have pulled back 10% and 33% respectively, but the author views these moves as...
Carlyle’s Currie Warns Against Oil and Gas Hoarding
Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Energy Pathways, told Bloomberg Surveillance that the ongoing Iran war is already disrupting the global oil and gas supply chain. He warned that the damage could take months to unwind and cautioned market...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Rick Rule: Oil Shocks, Mining Costs, and Lessons From the ’73 Arab Embargo
Rick Rule warns that renewed oil price volatility is inflating mining operating costs and reshaping the sector’s risk profile. He draws parallels to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, noting how energy shocks can trigger profound real‑asset cycles. The interview also...
My Latest SeekingAlpha Article: Silver Mining Stocks With Production Growth
The Seeking Alpha piece spotlights 18 silver mining companies that are projected to increase production over the next 12‑18 months. It highlights firms with expanding reserves, higher ore grades, and cost‑efficient operations, many of which are positioned in North America...
Friday Footnotes: Wheat Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The article highlights the concept of wheat balance‑sheet blind spots, emphasizing that reported inventory figures often ignore physical accessibility and quality constraints. It explains that a grain elevator’s listed wheat may not meet specifications or be readily deliverable due to...
The Bespoke Report – 3/13/26 – A Sell-Off So Steep, Investors Won’t Sell
The Bespoke Report highlighted a sharp market sell‑off, with the S&P 500 registering an extreme oversold reading while still hovering near record highs. This technical divergence suggests a fragile equilibrium: prices could tumble further to align with the oversold signal, or...
My New Position: Investment Thesis Explained
The author disclosed a newly initiated micro‑cap position in a sub‑$100 million market‑cap company, emphasizing its illiquid nature and potential for rapid price appreciation. After a face‑to‑face meeting with the CEO, confidence in the investment thesis increased, citing recent milestone achievements...
Mamdani's Estate Tax Will Suffocate NYC's Middle Class
A proposal circulating in Albany would slash New York’s estate‑tax exemption from over $7 million to $750,000 and raise the top rate to 50 percent. The change would shift the tax burden from ultra‑wealthy dynasties to typical middle‑class families who own modest...
Yao Yang: The Post-2018 Evolution in China's Political Economy
At a Long U.S.–China Institute distinguished lecture on Feb. 23, 2026, Professor Yao Yang argued that China’s reform‑and‑opening period effectively concluded in 2018, ushering a new era focused on manufacturing expansion and technological self‑reliance. He outlined domestic policy shifts—including anti‑corruption drives,...
New Survey From Redfin Says Investors Are Turning Their Backs on Florida
Redfin’s latest survey shows investor activity in Florida slumping, with Orlando down 16% and Fort Lauderdale 15% year‑over‑year, while national investor purchases rose about 2% in Q4 2025. The decline is driven by soaring insurance premiums—averaging $5,838 annually, more than double...
Rent Prices Are Down Nationwide—Here’s How Investors Can Protect Their Cash Flow in a “Renter-Friendly” Era
After years of double‑digit rent gains, the national median rent slipped 1.4% YoY to $1,353 in January 2026, its lowest level in four years. Vacancy rates climbed to 7.3% as new supply flooded the market, prompting landlords to offer concessions...
Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
💡Trade Idea for Friday, March 13, 2026
A trader is initiating a cash‑secured put on a stock that has recently pulled back after a strong uptrend. Technical analysis shows the price holding above its longer‑term trend line while momentum indicators are stabilizing, suggesting a lower‑risk entry point....
European Indices Close Week on a Down Note
European equity markets ended the day in the red, with France's CAC 40 falling 0.91% and Germany's DAX slipping 0.65%. The UK's FTSE 100, Spain's Ibex, and Italy's FTSE MIB also posted modest declines, ranging from 0.31% to 0.47%. Over...
Trump’s Oil Crisis Is Already Costing Massachusetts Drivers Over $2.4 Million A Day In Higher Gas Prices
A surge in global oil prices after President Trump’s attack on Iran has pushed Massachusetts gasoline prices up 45 cents per gallon, costing drivers over $2.4 million daily. The state consumes about 6 million gallons per day, so the extra expense totals...
Stay-at-Home Mom Budget Hacks: Making the Most of Extra Space in Your Home
Stay‑at‑home moms can turn underused rooms into financial assets by renting them, creating home offices, or launching small businesses. The article outlines practical steps for generating supplemental income, reducing housing costs through shared living, and improving organization to avoid wasteful...
Beeline’s Self-Service Mortgage Option One Step Closer to Loan Officer Extinction
Beeline has introduced a self‑service mortgage experience that lets borrowers complete applications, explore scenarios, lock rates and upload documents without a loan officer. The platform’s AI‑driven loan tracker processes data in seconds and offers real‑time assistance via a digital assistant...
Rosenblatt Lifts Price Target on Apple by $1, Maintains Netural Rating
Rosenblatt Securities nudged its Apple price target from $267 to $268 while keeping a Neutral rating. The adjustment follows Apple’s launch of the low‑cost MacBook Neo and the budget‑oriented iPhone 17e, expanding its affordable hardware lineup. Apple projects Q2 FY2026...
Indicator of the Day (Video): Pring European Diffusion Indicator
Hedge Fund Tips released a short video spotlighting the Pring European Diffusion Indicator (PRDIFEUR) as its Indicator of the Day. The chart dated March 12, 2026 visualizes the indicator’s line movement alongside the broader IEUR index. PRDIFEUR gauges the diffusion of price...
After the Petrodollar
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
Daily Memo: US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions
The United States announced a 30‑day suspension of sanctions on Russian crude that is currently at sea, aiming to cushion the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The temporary relief covers roughly 100 million barrels of Russian oil in transit,...
Why International Footprints Don’t Sell NYC Investment Properties
International brokerage firms claim global networks attract foreign capital to NYC real estate, but data from veteran broker Robert Knakal shows otherwise. Over 14 years at CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, and JLL, 538 transactions generated 9,146 offers, yet none originated...
Gold Daily Call for March 13th, 2026
Gold prices are hovering near $5,055, with technical analysis suggesting a possible rebound to $5,100‑$5,120 if the level holds. A soft buy signal from the 4‑hour stochastic indicator supports the upside, but recent repeated failures indicate waning momentum. Oil continues...
5 Big Energy Stories - 3.13.2026: The Fear Premium Returns to Oil Markets With a Vengeance
Oil markets are once again being driven by a fear premium, pushing Brent crude up by roughly $15‑$20 per barrel despite ample global supply. The premium, first noted after 9/11, reflects traders’ risk‑aversion to geopolitical shocks and supply‑chain disruptions. Recent...