Iran Likely to Shut Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Supply
According to @Polymarket, there is a 67% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. The probability has SOARED in the last few hours. 20% OF THE WORLD’S OIL, AND ~40% OF CHINA’S OIL, FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. NO WONDER CHINA HAS AN INTEREST IN IRAN. https://t.co/EZ0HpfhnvH
SPX Beats Midpoint Yet Slides 50bps in 12 Days
Odd stat of the day: the $SPX has closed ABOVE its intra-day midpoint in 11/12 days. It's down a net 50 bps over that time span.
U.S. Sees -2% as Volatile; Nikkei Drops 10%
Americans think a -2% day is crazy volatile, while the Nikkei is down 10% in the first three days of March https://t.co/997R5MoBjs
San Francisco Housing Poised for 3% Rise, Undervalued
Something is going on in San Francisco's housing market. Inventory just dropped 38% yoy and is now at the lowest level in 6 years. Demand is rising. And rents are surging. This market got hammered during the pandemic, with prices in some ZIP...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Breaks 1% for First Time
#OTD 2020... back when I had a real job and only TOS ... 10yr breaks 1% for the first time https://t.co/CyW5CAAfCa
SPS Commerce Trades Cheap, Unusual Call Spread Amid Sale Push
I'll do this one public...always liked this Co. and is wildly cheap at these levels... Unusual Call Spread in High Quality Software Player at Record Cheap Valuation with Limited AI Disruption Risk SPS Commerce $SPSC with an interesting trade of 3/3 as...
Trade Desk Faces Growing Threat From Amazon
If Trade Desk has not felt rising competition yet, just wait. $TTD $AMZN The LightShed Podcast, Ep. 303. With @BrandoLightShed and @WaltLightShed https://t.co/CI8LQ71sUY
Full Fee Disclosure Drives Client to Switch Banks
A client moved to me after 6 years with a private bank. He didn't leave because of poor performance. He left because he finally saw the full fee statement. His relationship manager had never shown him the total annual cost in dollars.
Low‑beta, US‑linked European Sectors Stay Shock‑proof
GS Europe: Europe has re-rated in recent years Sectors with high US exposure and a low beta to the market should be mostly immune to recent shocks https://t.co/g2Fd3kpcA5
Target Small Markets, Vet Supply‑Demand, Spot Mispricings
I bought my first deal with $2,500 of my own money and now own over $50M of real estate If I had to start over in 2026, here’s how I’d find a market in just 4 steps: Step...
Venezuela Leads, Five Nations Face Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, as of March 1st, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 656.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 84.6%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 63.8%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 50.0%/yr https://t.co/FrHE7rOpRu
VXUS Holds Above 20‑Week SMA, Support Confirmed
$VXUS international ETF clean hold on 20sma weekly, again, clean line in sand for your radar and natural stop for swings under that line. https://t.co/RWEeeRI0sD
Software Stocks Likely Bottoming Near 200‑
Software sold off first, so stands to reason it would try to bottom first. Solid action around the 200sma-- very clear line in sand for medium term swings. $IGV https://t.co/zcHdivFd3y
VGK Shows Strong Reversal at Clean Support
Interesting spot $VGK (Europe) -- solid reversal on clean support. 84 line in sand. https://t.co/YeH5D1pF0E
S&P Holds 6800 Support as VIX Surges to 28
The "Fog of War" hit the tape today. 🌫️ $SPX salvaged support at 6800 after a brutal open, but the $VIX spiking to 28 is a major red flag. I’m also honoring the late legend John Murphy and applying...
Platinum Chart Signals Impending Head‑and‑shoulders Reversal
Charts can always morph, but it looks to me that the Platinum party is about to be interrupted by a head and shoulders pattern. I am not allowing replies on this because I have no interest in reading what you...
Iran's Inflation Hits 87.2%, World’s Third‑Highest Rate
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 87.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Ur4qSrFxia
Precious Metals Drop Signals Upcoming Money Flow Shift
Precious metals are down today. This means a generational shift in the money flow. With all the war talk the money usually moves first and then we see the news. This is 100% signaling something:
CrowdStrike Hits $5B ARR Milestone, Record FY26
CrowdStrike just delivered a record FY26, capped by a blockbuster Q4. 🔒 $5.25B ending ARR - the ONLY pure-play software cyber company to cross $5B 📈 $331M net new ARR in Q4, all-time record, up 47% YoY. 💰 $1.24B FY26 free cash flow....
Defensive Tilt Masks Weakness in Tech, Financials, Discretionary
$SPY - The part that's tough for me is the defensive tilt that's taken place this year in the S&P 500. It's easier to "ignore" these days as "event driven" etc. when that isn't the case but with $XLK, $XLF,...
Long Reinvestment Runways Fuel Powerful Wealth Compounding
"Reinvestment runway defines long-term compounding potential." The biggest investing edge isn’t timing the market — it’s owning long reinvestment runways. 🚀 Reinvestment runway defines how long a business can compound capital at high returns. The longer the runway, the more powerful the...
V‑shaped Rebound Likely, but Deleveraging Extends Beyond One Day
Rooting for the immediate v shaped recovery in KOSPI/Nikkei but, in my experience, violent deleveraging events are seldom limited to a single session. Held off on any aggressive dip buying today.
Iran Conflict Spurs Gas Prices Near $3.5 Threshold
My friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas has it right. ONE OF THE COSTS OF THE NETANYAHU-TRUMP WAR ON IRAN = A GAS PRICE SURGE. https://t.co/cnsDUpCpbY
Europe's US Discount Shrinks, yet Gap Persists
GS: While Europe remains on a discount to the US, this discount has narrowed https://t.co/MWh0XnVJBZ
RBOB Contract Roll Added 25¢ to Gasoline Price
Gasoline prices... remember the March-April RBOB contract roll was +25 cents on its own https://t.co/WAOPFvCQdz
FTSE250 Shows Bearish Momentum, EMA Cross Looms
#FTSE250 big Down Candle. RSI 44 bit off Neutral. Could be lining up 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross. Closed below Bottom Bollinger Band which is unstable.
Record Volume Hits ACWI After 2% Dip, Model Rotation Suspected
Intriguing, $ACWI (and $28b old dog ETF I rarely think about) saw record volume today. Maybe bc it fell 2%, which is bad but not Code Red.. my guess is a model rotated out of it. We've seen a lot...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Opendoor's Sacramento Holdings Shrink From 300 to 30 Homes
Opendoor owns about 30 homes in the Sacramento region right now. At the height of their purchase activity a few years ago, they routinely owned about 300 units at any given time.
US Policy Uncertainty Likely Rising, Outpacing Dollar Index
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
Financials Surge, Magnetizing 2024‑25 First‑Half Pivot
Financials rally back to the underbelly of the 2024 and 2025 1H pivot. So far it’s acting like a magnet... $XLF https://t.co/jXBzQnKMxZ
Former Owner Might
#Auction on #5thAve. 80KSF #681Fifth, a McKim, Mead&White design, goes for just $100G to #WellsFargo. But #RobertSiegel, who lost it thru #foreclosure, may have some cards up his sleeve. Proceeding barely a min. #realestate #CRE #NYC https://t.co/eiDjaAGEuc via @CrainsNewYork
BofA Predicts Weak Feb Jobs, Fed Stays on Hold
BofA: We forecast a below-consensus Feb NFP print of 35k (private: 45k). The u-rate should remain at 4.3% Fed response: wait and watch stance under Powell https://t.co/qQ28IUZLsk
Turned Defensive Tactics Against Misaligned Controllers
"Prophylactic measures" are typically what boards use to defend against activists (e.g., poison pills, staggered boards, etc). With $MAPS I flipped the script. In the presence of controllers with misaligned incentives, I had to deploy prophylactic defenses to box the board...
Understanding Straddle Approximation and Skew's Impact on Volatility
Today's spaced repetition covers a lot of ground. 🌙Visual derivation of the .80 straddle approximation 🌙How skew distorts vol-based risk measures 🌙 Practical tips& discussion
Choose Planning Over Panic—Book a Free Call
Did you panic today, or did you plan? If you need help planning, I’ve opened my calendar and will help answer questions at www.buildingbread.com/callkev
Oil Approaches Its Most Bullish Season Yet
We are nearing oil's most bullish time of year. $CL_F $USO $WTIC More from me on @stockcharts: https://t.co/2c4CuouCWe https://t.co/o1k2jBw7MM
Kevin Warsh: The Radical Fed Chair Who Bridges Tech
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
32 Large‑Cap Hits New Highs, 14 Slip to Lows
there are 32 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new highs list today... there are 14 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new lows list... #FinanciallyINsync #HighLowShow #marketUpdate #investing
23 QQQ Stocks Rally over 4% From Intraday Lows
there are 23 stocks in the $QQQ that are +4%+ from their intraday lows... https://t.co/SGN4Kt6jhn
New $6K Senior Deduction Cuts Taxes, Not Social Security Taxation
A growing number of retirees have been paying federal tax on their benefits. A new $6,000 per person senior deduction reduces taxes for some seniors, but doesn’t change the way Social Security is taxed. https://t.co/Xv3DUZI1Us
Deal Sets Us Up as DTC Market Leader
David Ellison: “This deal positions us to be one of the leading competitors in the DTC space, to really accelerate our growth and to achieve scale in DTC… It is a primary goal for the business.”
Brent Oil Slides, Yet Likely Peaks Before Midterms
December 2026 Brent crude oil is down on the day. It will near top step by the Midterms. Higher or lower by then? My bias is lower https://t.co/bu6WD5MAw6
Oil Market May Be Overly Complacent, New Analysis Shows
Is the oil market too complacent right now? New @axios piece explores the question. #OOTT #energy (1/2)
VVIX Above 125 Signals 5‑Day Positive Returns
VVIX >125 this AM correlates with pretty positive forward returns >=5 days out https://t.co/FCX5fvZMOi https://t.co/Tn8krhl4YQ
BAC Hints at Reversal; I Hold Personal
$BAC showing signs of reversing. I have some in my investment/spec/gamble account. None in trade account.
IGV Holds $80, Forms
$igv held $80 and made a higher low like many Software names including $msft $now $orcl. For tactical Cash flow
SPY Rebounds to $682, Easing Market Pressure
Yes. Pretty amazing that $spy reclaimed $675 to relieve some pressure. Now it’s $682+ to manage
SPX Tests Lower Box Edge, Echoing 2025 Breakout
Given this week’s early price action, the $SPX now is testing the lower boundary of its latest trading range — what we classify as a trading box. As most readers know, we view these ranges as important reference points for risk...
Nifty50 Faces Crucial Support Tests Amid Volatility
Based on Monday’s India VIX and the geopolitical mess, I see 3 key supports for Nifty50 tomorrow (4th March): >> 24,500 >> 24,150 >> 23,450 Gift Nifty hints we may open below 24,500. If 24,150 holds, bulls survive....🔥 If the last support breaks, we’re not talking...