Trump's Term Produced 23 of 50 Wildest S&P Days
"Going back five administrations, covering nearly 4,500 trading days, 23 of the top 50 wildest sessions measured by the difference between the intraday high and low in the S&P 500 were during one of Trump’s terms" https://t.co/xZq7AxKtMA https://t.co/xhJQJgXHVY https://t.co/Er8tqPFcLo
30 Best Daily Charts Spark Fresh Ideas
Appreciate making the @dailychartbook report last night. I've said this many times, but it is simply one of the best places to get 30 of the best charts each day. Every time I read it I learn something and get...
Master Liquidity, FVGs, and Timing for Trading Edge
I Wasted years before learning this... 📊 First one is " Liquidity📊 Second are "Fair value Gaps📊 Third one is Timing 📊 When Combined 📊 Decoding FVG📊
Value Stocks May Be Bottoming Again, Indicator Warns
Remember March 2000? The tech-heavy indices were at a vertical limit but "unloved" value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway were actually bottoming. Are we seeing a repeat of that specific historical rhyme today? One indicator is flashing red. Read my thoughts here...
Buy More SpaceX Shares As Valuation Drops
SpaceX IPO likely in June. Here is how I'm thinking about participation: 1)priced at $1.75T i'll buy zero shares 2)priced at $1.5T i'll buy 25% position 3)priced at $1.25T i'll buy 50% postion 4)priced at $1T i'll buy a full position
CrowdStrike: Strong Moat Justifies Buy at $390
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is #CRWD a BUY now at $390? I’ve always loved CrowdStrike. Founder-led. Insane, unbreakable moat. Built to dominate cybersecurity for decades. And after surviving the largest IT outage in history, it just crushed it: record $5.25B ARR + 115%...
Sacramento Leads Buyer Migration, But Are Rankings Accurate?
Where are buyers moving? Redfin recently came out with a top list in the United States, and Sacramento actually is the number one destination. But are these really the top spots? Some thoughts on my weekly blog. https://t.co/SPAXCixM2H https://t.co/Oqe3yaEfog
Homebuyer Demand Hits Near‑record Lows; Price Cuts Needed
Reventure's homebuyer demand index remain near a 10/100 this week, resting near the lowest levels on record. Not much has changed in terms of homebuyer demand over the last several months, even with the start to the war. This week, mortgage apps...
US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
US Oil Output Stays Flat Despite War‑Driven Price Surge
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves...
Luxury 4‑6‑Bedroom Rentals Remain Vastly Underserved
The Airbnb market is not saturated. The 1 and 2-bedroom market is saturated. There are roughly 2 million listings across Airbnb and VRBO. Around 70% of them are 3 bedrooms or less. That is the saturated market. The 4, 5, and 6-bedroom luxury group travel...
Middle East Conflict May Lift EU Solar PPAs 35%
Pexapark: Middle East conflict could increase European solar PPA prices by 35% #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/V7vYLlm1b0
Death Cross Signals Further 5% Market Drop
By the time the #DeathCross (55 < 200 DMA) has happened (in case you're waiting for it) mkt would have dropped another 5%. careful.
Tech Valuations Near Par with Overall S&P
S&P 500 Information Technology forward P/E has declined from a peak of 32x in 2025 to 20.9x, now nearly in line with the overall S&P 500 at 19.9x forward P/E. data from Yardeni Research. Investing
Inside Hedge Funds' Secret Market Regime Detection Method
The secret hedge funds use to detect market regimes... A 37 page PDF reveals everything:
Physical Brent Commands $20 Premium over June Futures
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Slightly Elevated Withdrawals and Cancellations Remain Unremarkable
Through March, withdrawn listings and canceled contracts are still slightly elevated, but don't look particularly alarming to me https://t.co/aDY2kdN66d
RBI Bans Banks From NDFs, Rebooking, Related‑party Forwards
Rbi saw that banks moved their positions to corporates or perhaps related parties and have said: Banks can't offer ndf rupee contracts to anyone If you close a contract from now, no rebooking, even if it's a deliverables contract. Banks can't deal...
Iran Offers Ceasefire for Strait Access, US Demands Opening
The way out of this mess, according to our geopolitics guy: The TACO was trailed by yesterday's talk about leaving others to free up the strait. Trump's latest burp today hardens this somewhat when, in answer to his own claim that...
China's Trade Reliance Makes Sea Lane Disruptions Catastrophic
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
Mortgage Rate Lockdown Myth Remains Unfounded
One of the most misunderstood housing economic stories in this cycle is the mortgage rate lockdown premise, which I never bought into, even in the last decade when it was being discussed. https://t.co/ae3tzVWdb9
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Global Trade Thrives Despite US Tariffs, Economy Resilient
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
Saudi's 2025 Break‑even Oil Price Stays Near $100
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
Stocks Above 50‑Day Avg Rise, Hinting Near Low
Technicians know to look not only for oversold extremes but also divergences, such as credit spreads making a lower high while equity indices make lower lows. So far, we are not seeing those. One glimmer of hope, at least over the...
Raise Kids for Life on Under $500 Monthly
Don't buy your kids Jordans. Don't buy your kids a new iPad. Don't buy your kids an iPhone. Here's how you can set up your kids for life without spending more than $500 a month...
Two-Day Momentum Picks: 12 Stocks Surging Over 2%
12 Stocks With Strong Follow-Through Up Another 2%+ Today. Save This List. These names didn’t just bounce — they’re showing real conviction with two straight days of solid gains. This is exactly the kind of momentum I watch for when the market starts pricing...
Adapt Your Credit Exposure: One Size Doesn't Fit All
Why would you hold the same credit exposure in every environment? Bull market, bear market, crisis, calm. Same portfolio? That's not a strategy. $JOJO adapts. https://t.co/btj3P2nFv0
US‑Israel Iran Conflict Boosts Chinese Exporters’ Global Market Share
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
Gap Fill Speed Reveals Underlying Trend Strength
$SPY would have to decline to 651.54 and $QQQ to 578.64 to fill this morning’s potential breakaway gaps, and $QQQ has now filled last Thursday’s gap. (No fooling…) How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives...
Use Relief Rally to Right‑size Portfolio After Leg Down
If you didn't like how your portfolio felt last week on the latest leg down, this relief rally is a good spot to right-size things.
Discretion Beats Algorithms: Spotting Gold’s Hidden Reversal
Gold: A textbook 5 SMA retest down after extended run before then setting up higher low/u turn reversal. The quant model didn't pick it up due to the closing mark of the first reaction bar up. ARGUING for the...
Product Prices Reveal Story, Crude Oil Doesn't
What tells a clear story? Crude oil prices = No Product prices = Yes... https://t.co/Ltyf8VQx12
Dollar and Oil Slip, Gold and Stocks Rally
Today's Opening Bell USD, Oil Slide as Gold & Equities Pop- Trump on Deck (Asset Chaptered) https://t.co/jntCW5JrUN
Vanguard's Edge: Long‑term Investors Capture Full Gains
"[W]hat appears to have set Vanguard apart is its fund investors largely staying put and, thus, participating more fully in their gains." A good news story, and a characteristically thoughtful analysis, from @syouth1 https://t.co/HCPoMAVGqV
Rising Input Costs Push Index Up, Inflation Near 4%
This index "has now risen by nearly 20 points in just two months, as higher energy prices have come amid rising costs of other raw materials. On past form, it now looks consistent with headline inflation rising to 4% in...
NRP Poised for 30% Upside as Distributions Return
$NRP is up 30% over the past 12 months. With preferreds retired, the company is set to resume higher distributions. Timing has slipped, though, due to a severe soda ash downcycle forcing reinvestment into the segment. Management now guides to likely distributions...
Market Nears Support, Yet No Oversold Signals
How far do we go down? No one knows of course, but the weekly chart shows that we are approaching the previous peak of 6127. That should act as support, as well as the rising trendline. However, the percentage of...
Free 12-Strategy Tax Course for 1099 Earners
Who hasn't received my free course with 12 tax-saving strategies? Best for those with 1099 income. Includes backdoor Roth, mega backdoor Roth, etc. Vote below if you haven't gotten it and I'll comment/DM it to you
USO and Oil Shorts Performing Strongly Today
2nd tarde of the day here with $USO and #OIL short here. so far so good. 🫡💥 https://t.co/qXhkRgCEbx
Slow Line Dips Below Zero, Meeting Downside Target
Update: The minimum downside objective was met with a CLOSE of the slow line beneath the zero line on the weekly charts. (suggested 2 1/2 months ago) https://t.co/dkTsV9E8Vi
Targeting GBPUSD Reversal with Buy Limit at 1.32787
Let’s try to catch the reversal move on GBPUSD. 🎯 🔻 Buy Limit: 1.32787 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.32184 🎯 Take Profit: 1.33952
High‑Yield Bonds Diverge, Falling While Risk Rally Persists
$HYG Daily. Biggest early divergence to the rally in risk is high yield/junk and some private credit names in the red. Here, high yield corporate bonds gapping down. Trump speech tonight on tap https://t.co/9x0hkcFmtd
Trend Day Upswing Likely to Revert to EMA
following a trend day up, probabilities favor reversion to the 15 minute pit session EMA before the end of the day. https://t.co/uXHTqKZRRv
Spotting Fakeout Breakdowns in Oversold Uptrends
$ITA - Oversold within the context of a longer term uptrend with "fakeout" breakdown and well defined risk. These type(s) of setups are my focus.... https://t.co/tJ1TzyF04C
Range Expansion Outside Daily KC Signals Selling Climax
Friday: Range expansion with close outside of the daily KC at end of wing down = selling climax. https://t.co/IxmgbfoieA
Mag 7 Slump Drags S&P; Breadth Still Not
The Mag 7 are now leading the way down, which means that the cap-weighted S&P 500 is following suit. The M7 peaked last October and is down 17% from that high. That’s almost twice as much as the S&P 500....
Middle East War Lifts Fixed
Most Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Now In The 4% Range: What Should People Do? The War In The Middle East drove up Canada Bond Yields & therefore drove up Fixed Rates 5 - Yr 4.04% - 4.29% Variable Rate Mortgages now look...
Crocs Paid Half Its Market Cap for Tiny HeyDude Sales
Last year, the Crocs brand sold ~129 million pairs of shoes - or nearly 6x greater than the ~22 million pairs that were sold under the HeyDude brand. In early 2022, Crocs paid ~$2.5 billion for HeyDude. The company's market cap is...
Silver Blow‑off Targets $28.31 Low by 2030
$Silver - Blow off moves in the past ended with a return to the origin of the blow off. In 1980 it was to the April 1978 low at 4.90. In 2011 it was to the February 2010 low at...