USO Iron Condor Targets 115‑135 Range Through 2027
Oil (USO) interesting trade September 2027 as the $140/$135/$115/$110 Iron Condor trades 1000X expecting a 115-135 longer-term range to hold
Mortgage Refinance Demand Drops over 40% in a Month
Weekly #mortgage refinance demand is down more than 40% in the past month https://t.co/KBjl0aRgH6 @MBAMortgage @mortgagenewsmnd #interestrates #economy
Apartment Rents Slide as War, Job Cuts Curb Demand
#Apartment #rents weaken further as war and job cuts weigh on demand https://t.co/bhTYCv7BMT @ApartmentList @CoStarGroup @apartmentscom
Gold's Bearish Engulfing Hints End of Bull Market
$Gold - The March candle was a bearish engulfing candle similar to September 2011. At the monthly low it hit the 10 month MA as it did in September 2011. The bull market may be over and gold could suffer...
Market Stress Unites Cap and Equal‑Weighted S&P 500
During times of market stress, correlations tend to converge to 1, and that is the case now within the equity markets. The chart below shows that the S&P 500 cap-weighted index is suffering the same fate as the equal-weighted index....
U.S. Dollar Index Remains Boring Amid Forecast Hype
i've said it before and i'll say it again, the U.S. dollar index $DXY has got to be one of the most boring 🥱🥱🥱charts out there... and my enthusiasm feels inversely correlated to those that like to prognoticate about it......
MO Crashes; Bought April Puts at 5000x
$MO ugly with some news this morning and had those Apr. puts bought 5000X other day https://t.co/ChO9ndG1S1
Ellen Wald: Brent Prices Must Rise Amid Iran War
Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC
Nike Investors Endure 74% Loss over Five Years
I don’t know what’s more painful: losing 74% of your investment from the highs, or having to sit through it for five years. Tough stretch for Nike investors $NKE https://t.co/qoshCVwoO0
Navigate Care Costs, Dream Test Drives, and Raise Requests
💰 Personal finance links: the high costs of long-term care, test-driving your dreams, and how to ask for a raise at work. https://t.co/jYsUMSYOxm image: https://t.co/Xbr9dODbqQ https://t.co/RNxFJ8sMIV
Energy Trim Not Bearish; Valero Shows Reversal Potential
just cause we took some energy stock gains in #AllINsync (trimmed in red circles) doesn't make me bearish... had just been expecting that energy stocks would reverse when the market bottomed... here's our Valero $VLO activity... https://t.co/BlDE6WNa6w
Mortgage Applications Plunge 10% Weekly, Purchase Demand Slides 3%
Mortgage applications decreased 10.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey ... The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier.
AI-Focused Positioning Drives Nvidia’s Massive Outperformance over AMD
Nvidia vs AMD over the last 5 years: NVDA: +1,158% AMD: +157% Same industry… completely different outcomes. The difference? Positioning around the AI boom. The market rewards companies that dominate trends—not just participate in them.
Diesel Prices Show Striking, Relevant Dispersion Nationwide
I will keep retweeting updates of @GasBuddyGuy great data. This dispersion in diesel prices is both striking and relevant.
Large Warehouse Leases Surge 31% as Data Centers Drive Demand
High time for storage. Demand for biggest #warehouses rebounds, w/146 leases of 500KSF bldgs+ in 25. That's up 31%+. '#Datacenter construction is starting to be a demand driver.' #realestate #CRE #industrial #logistics #Cushman #Savills https://t.co/qPqh4r1J17 via @WSJ https://t.co/6eV5DXeJBR
Average Investors Lag S&P; Index Funds Win
The average investor made 2.1%/yr in 1996-2015 vs 8.2%/yr for the S&P 500. This is exactly why many investors should just invest in index funds and chill. Stop gambling in individual stocks. Stop options trading. Start investing.
TSX Leads Major Indices Back to 50‑Day Average
the Toronto stock market $TSX is the first of the big indices back to the 50-day average, continuing to offer it's relative strength advantage...
SPYM Doubles Competitors, Leads VOO in YTD Flows
Inigo Montoya, err I mean $SPYM, took in double any other ETF over the past month. Now has comfortable lead over $VOO in YTD flows. https://t.co/jLeSeHAiNw
Cold‑Storage Hits 20‑Year High Amid Looming Industry Challenges
The reason nature abhors a vacuum is cuz it's chilly. 20-yr high hit in #coldstorage, as bldg boom, rising costs+weak demand take their toll. 'The industry is g/to have a tough couple of years.' #realestate #CRE #industrial #logistics #mortgage https://t.co/30UETCwZhR...
Oil Shocks Fade; Markets Typically Rebound Within Months
Military conflicts and oil shocks are nothing new. We’ve been through this many times. Yes, they create uncertainty and shake things up, but historically oil has come back down within a few months, and stocks often start moving higher not...
Kite Lake Secures $700M, Signaling Hedge Fund Appetite
𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐈𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐀 𝐉𝐎𝐊𝐄! Kite Lake raised $700 million in new cash, signaling improving appetite for hedge funds. The event-driven trading specialist reopened for a day to take in the money and closed it to further capital again. https://t.co/8wIkR828BM
ETF Flows Tighten While Volume Surges Across Sectors
In this week's video we highlight the rise of restraint from ETF flows, as well as dig into elevated ETF volume, and a few sector flow charts you should know. https://t.co/ewwa4G5PCz
DJP Quarterly Chart Forms Cup‑Handle Breakout
iPath Bloomberg Commodity $DJP quarterly chart... looks like a big cup with handle breakout to me, if you're asking... https://t.co/RvQ7TfV1do
Fundamentals Strong, S&P 2026 Target 7100 Signals 9% Gain
"Although sentiment has soured, fundamentals have remained resilient. S&P 500 2026 earnings estimates rose 2% in March, pushing consensus growth expectations up to 17% YoY. At the same time, the S&P 500's forward PE sits ~15% below its recent peak...
Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
SPY Breaks Out, Eyes 665 After Sideways Phase
$SPY kicking off the new month AND quarter with a breakout above its multi-week consolidation channel. Watch for sideways action before an attempt to break through 665.00.
Korea Posts $25B March Trade Surplus on Chip Boom
Crazy March trade surplus for Korea ($25b a month, $300b annualized) Strong chip exports continued. And presumably a bunch of expected tankers didn't arrive so fuel demand was met out of inventory 1/2 https://t.co/NGcasg9i4v
S&P Quarterly Chart Shows No Clear Uptrend
S&P 500 $SPX quarterly chart... remind me again why you don't think stocks are in an uptrend? https://t.co/7HYe4z8jog
Fed President Signals Rate Hold, Open to Adjustments
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
ADP Jobs Beat, Oil Inventories Drop Ahead of Fed Talk
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
Higher Open Fades Near VWAP; Downtrend Still Intact
Markets are higher this morning but pulling back a bit right now and at the overnight VWAP ⚫️. Let's see how the anchor from yesterdays news is handled 🟣 if there is further weakness. Keep in mind the 5 sma...
Geopolitical Risks Are Temporary; Stick to Fundamentals
Geopolitical Risk Is A Recurring But Temporary Driver Of Markets ➡️While recent developments such as rising oil prices, evolving tariff policy, persistent inflation... can heighten investor anxiety, the more pressing challenge for advisors is helping clients distinguish between short-term noise...
China’s 90% Model Threatens Global Industries
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
Yesterday's Top Movers: PRGS, SPCE, PHR, and More
This is how the stocks of the reporting companies performed yesterday: $PRGS $SPCE $PHR $APC $INV $SGMO $FDS $BITF $MKC $TE $SNX $PVLA $CHA https://t.co/UiejUOpEMy
Integrated Real Asset Strategy Protects Capital, Boosts Value
At ARH Global Advisors LLC, our Fiduciary Wealth & Real Assets Division integrates: — Acquisition strategy — Brokerage execution — Asset positioning — Risk evaluation — Long-term portfolio alignment Because real estate, private holdings, and tangible assets should never operate in isolation. They should function as part...
Memory Stocks Tumble, Triggering Shorts Into Data Centers
Shorting Memory Darling & Data Center Flower $MU $BE Memory stocks like $MU and peers have broken down after earnings, hitting key downside targets and confirming short setups across the group... and spilling into data center-related names like $BE. https://t.co/eWlx1m14Oa
U.S. Must Rethink Oil‑Security Ties with Diversifying Gulf States
Great new @ForeignAffairs essay by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s @ProfessorKaren about how post-war, the historic “oil for security” relationship is no longer tenable, & US needs to update its approach to Gulf states that are rapidly diversifying their economies https://t.co/Nmszm8a5bu
China Poised to Weather Hormuz Oil Shutdown
How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure. https://t.co/YczOlt8T4v
Watch Key Levels for Macro‑Driven Risk‑Off Moves
Here’s is my🔥 #stickynote for April 1, 2026: Macro-heavy session with data + Fed speakers — watching for risk-off tone and reaction to key levels 👀 🧠 Macro Focus: Oil strength + macro catalysts could keep pressure on equities. Expect moves driven by...
46 Firms Created Half US Market Wealth; Most Stocks Lag
From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: https://t.co/chTC5hDP2I https://t.co/4YIroZABKD
Dell Partners Outpace Q1 Forecast, Raising Guidance
3pdata shop out on $DELL latest research into DELL suggests partners are tracking ahead of F1Q plan across segments driven by pull-forward and similar to better win rates. We slightly raised our F1Q estimates and are ahead of cons...
China Poised to Capture Market as Iran War Reshapes Trade
Iran war gives Chinese exporters chance to grab global market share Ample oil reserves and renewables growth make manufacturing sector more resilient than rivals https://t.co/Zm287YiQYa via @ft
Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Since 2015
Q4 2025 NMDB data reveals that 78% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 93% in Q2 2022. The share of mortgaged homes with a rate below 6% is the lowest since 2015....
Replacement Cost No Longer a Credible Selling Point
We’ve gotten to the point where you almost lose credibility when you bring up replacement cost as a selling point. Take literally any retail property in America: Calculate what it would cost to build it. Add tenant improvement allowance, leasing commissions, permits,...
Market Dips Are Normal; Volatility Fuels Long-Term Gains
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 9% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance....
New Bottom‑Detection Checklist Updated After Key Signals Align
thought i'd update you on my "Is It A Bottom?" checklist as we had a lot of ingredients come together... https://t.co/Mfvm0cfFFI
Pre‑Market Outlook: Short Leash, Drop Laggards, Dollar‑Driven Moves
(PREMIUM) The Lyons Share Daily Pre-Market Outlook & Charts videos for 4/1/2025 are up: https://t.co/lSmWM5IZh8 Today's Themes: 1) SHORT Leash 2) Lose The LAGGARDS 3) DOLLAR Driver Among markets covered: $SPX $NDX $VIX $SMH $XLB $XLE $GDX $EEM $EFA $GLD $SLV $ETH...
Model Signals New Equity Buy as VIX Drops
my S&P 500 $SPX vs. volatility $VIX model fired another buy signal for equities yesterday as it settled... https://t.co/3FNpIhBqkB
Fertilizer Costs Surge, Food Prices Remain Stable
Though fertilizer prices are soaring, so far food prices are not. Good news from Alan Beattie in the Financial Times. Featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/4bpBb11NI9
Close‑to‑open Trades Outpace Buy
"Buy and hold has seen a drop of roughly 5% for the S&P over the last six months. Had you only owned the market after hours by buying at the close every day and selling at the next open,...