Direct Indexing Solves My Personal Planning Challenges
Of course direct indexing is not for everybody. But here's the problem it solves for me and my personal planning:
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Founder Matters More than the Startup Idea
The best early-stage startup investment isn't actually the startup. It's the founder. When Joshua Sirota came through the Launch accelerator after getting rejected by YC, and my team, "I don't know if this startup works. But I know Josh is...
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
College Loans Under $500/Month Worth Earnings Boost
That comes out to less than $500 per month under a standard repayment rate and term, using today’s interest rates. Is that really so unreasonable given the lifetime earnings premium the typical college grad has over the typical high school...
Market Signals Risk-Off: Hold Cash Until Low‑Risk Setups Appear
Shared w https://t.co/XKERxJD71S subscribers Notice how the market is telling us what to do by taking some of our higher low stops. It is telling us it is time to take risk off slowly. We are not trying to...
Rate‑cut Odds Tumble After Warsh Hearing, Retail Sales Drive Shift
What's priced in after Warsh's nomination hearing. Yesterday, here was a 54.5% chance of a rate cut in December; now it's 39.5%. Was it Warsh's testimony? Doubtful, as we had a strong retail sales report. (src: BBG) https://t.co/Xg7g7b7gXM
New BOK Governor Emphasizes Inflation Control and Financial Stability
Interesting passage from @HyunSongShin's first speech as governor of the Bank of Korea: https://t.co/usPzjCjld0 https://t.co/DePG6zH4MH
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
Risk Appetite High, but Fundamentals Could Crumble Soon
I know the market is still charged on risk appetite and more than willing to persist on complacency, but if the fundamental situation starts to breakdown...this 4hr chart of the $SPX emini... https://t.co/wcb9ZHoyFs
Avoid High‑Cost Small‑Cap Funds Lagging 60% Behind
Cleaning up the portfolio of a family friend I helped leave an asshat advisor at a large bank & I was especially grossed out by a position in this Kaufman Small Cap Fund that is underperforming $IWM by 60% over...
China May Follow Iraq Model for Gulf Deals
Wait for things to shake out and then make deals with Gulf states on the other side, leveraging its own offerings? Iraq, where China is a dominant player in the upstream, maybe an instructive precedent for China ...
SPY’s Early Dip Bought, Strength Sold—Watch Friday Lows
$spy early weakness was bought yesterday. Today’s strength was sold. Now, watch Friday’s lows for what’s next https://t.co/KBnQ32iHQ0
Market Rallies 3% Weekly Despite JPM Short Warning
When you short the market because JPM said to short the market as long as the strait is closed, see the market rally 3%+ for 3 weeks straight even though the strait never opened, and then see Pomp say stocks...
High‑Quality Bonds: Simple, Reliable Diversifier for Equities
They're not foolproof (see: 2022), but high-quality bonds have been darn reliable diversifiers for equity exposure. Just add a bit of cash and you should be good to go. Sometimes the best answers really are the simplest ones. https://t.co/Eh3bgvN2Uz
China and US Fight Tightening Copper Market
A global tug of war between the SHFE (China) and the Comex (USA) for copper
Stadium Bonds Cost Double the Tax Revenue Generated
At a 4% interest rate, Missouri's $900m in stadium bonds would cost ~$50m a year to pay off, while bringing in only whatever slice of $28m/year in state, county, and city taxes attributed to the Royals actually goes to the...
Pending Home Sales Plunge
Pending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast . Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th...
Oil Prices Set to Surge After Gulf Shipments End
My take w/ @WallStBullion on why OIL is about to SPIKE: "By the end of April, all pre-war Gulf oil shipments will be delivered. Then, oil prices will spike again. Soon, the paper market will be mugged by reality & converge.” STAY LONG...
Markets Assume Peace, yet Signals Warn of Uncertainty
Three signals flashed green last week. One flashed yellow. S&P ripped +4.5%. Gold above $4,800. Oil collapsed below $85. The market just priced in peace. What if it's wrong? https://t.co/PPkEJEJRRN
Warsh: President only Suggested, Didn’t Demand Rate Cuts
Q: did the President ask you to lower rates? Warsh: he didn't require it, he didn't demand it. Question goes back and forth. Warsh is pretty clear - Warsh doesn't dispute that he may have been 'asked' to lower rates - he...
Warsh May Trim Fed Press Conferences if Confirmed
Fed Chair nominee Warsh hints he would reduce the number of press conferences if confirmed (Powell currently does one after every rate decision)
Roku Shares Hit 4‑year High Before Q1 Results
Why Roku Stock Is At A 4-Year High Ahead Of Its Q1 Report https://t.co/1uv0P7WOwz $ROKU
Invest for 20 Years, Not Perfection: Choose Worthy Businesses
Nobody asks "is this the perfect marriage?" They ask "is this person worth building a life with?" Investors should think the same way. Not: "Is this the best stock in the market?" But: "Is this a business I'd be proud to own for 20...
Plan Your CRE Exit From Day One
Smart CRE investors don’t just focus on the buy. They plan the exit from day one. • Timing the market cycle • Positioning for maximum value • Selling with demand, not hope Because in commercial real estate… profits are realized on the exit. #CommercialRealEstate #CREInvesting #CaliforniaCRE #RealEstateInvestors #investmentstrategy
Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Must Be Gradual, No Fixed Target
What level should the balance sheet be at? Warsh: I haven't picked a number. The Fed should come to an agreement, it's taken 18 years to get to the balance sheet, it won't happen overnight. It should not hold long-term Treasuries....
Warsh's Plan to Cut SOMA WAM Gains FOMC Backing
Reducing WAM of SOMA could be part of Warsh's plan which many FOMC members could support
Central Banks Must Act Differently in Crises, Leveraging Credibility
Warsh: central banks need to act differently in crisis versus other times. Those other times is when the credibility is built for the assertiveness during crises when they should be given the benefit of the doubt.
Avis Budget Group's $CAR Surges 500% in Short Squeeze
Impressive short squeeze in the wild: Avis Budget Group. $CAR is up over 500% over the past month and short volume volatility exceptionally elevated: https://t.co/1tCAmuSfgr
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
US Homebuyer Demand Hits Record Low, Prices Must Drop
U.S. homebuyer demand just hit its lowest level ever for the month of March. According to NAR Pending Sales, contract signings fell yoy to an index of 73.7. This was the worst monthly reading for March ever, even lower than 2008-09 crash. Worst...
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
Warren Buffett’s Sell Signals Predict Underperformance
With Fundamental Edge instructors Paul Johnson & Andrew Carr, we run the Applied Value Investing Certificate for Wall Street Prep (I don't consider myself a classic Value Investor by training, so Paul carriers the heavy lifting on Value Investing). On Friday...
IREN Should Remain Power Landlord, Not Neocloud
Lot's of people harping on $IREN because of this, and it's fair. In my report on neoclouds/power landlords, you can argue $IREN should just be a power landlord, not try and be a neocloud. https://t.co/ZqN97xWAFI
Gold's Behavior Varies by Session—Trade Timing Matters
Gold doesn’t move the same in every session. If you’re not paying attention to session timing, your setup won’t hit the same. London session brings volatility and clean moves. New York session brings continuation and volume. Sydney session is slower...
AUD/USD Jumps 5%, Bulls Eye Critical Resistance
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Surges 5%- Bulls Face Key Resistance Test https://t.co/HttJernfOE $AUDUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/0TtICC6wAu
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
Buy CRWD on Gap Up Near 200‑Day MA
$CRWD I rarely buy breakouts as I much prefer pullbacks. I did buy this one on the gap up. I took my paydays off as price hits the 200ma and the small overhead gap. https://t.co/7Sgi9pUNFK
WTI May Futures Expire; Prompt Spread Squeezed
WTI May futures contract expiring today. Prompt time spread getting squeezed this morning into expiry. https://t.co/ngZp1l2e18
SPY Holds 9-Day 20‑EMA Streak,
9 days over 20ema/60min which is astounding -- looks to break for now $SPY https://t.co/SCAzfgjwQn
AI Enables Tiny Teams to Match Hedge Fund Alpha
These tools will be interesting to watch With AI, fundamental can get a quant back office and, with some of these tools, quant can get a fundamental front end. If you walk the halls of a large hedge fund today, you will...
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Warsh Says President Never Directed Specific Interest-Rate Decisions
Warsh's wording seemed quite precise to me (emphasis mine): "The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on *any interest rate decision*" He used the same wording again: "The president never once asked me to commit to any particular...
Smallcaps Surge to All‑Time Highs, Market Rewards Strength
Smallcaps quietly hitting All-Time Highs 🚀🔥 🟢 Data Patterns 🟢 MTAR Tech 🟢 Syrma SGS 🟢 Aether Industries 🟢 Godawari Power 🟢 Anand Rathi Wealth 🟢 KRN Heat Exchangers 🟢 Aeroflex 🟢 Lumax Auto 🟢 CCL Products 🟢 Sai Life 🟢 PNG Jewellers 🟢 Thangamayil 🟢 Shaily Engineering Market is rewarding strength 📈
Historic Low Credit Spreads Prompt Treasury Rotation
Everyone thinks credit is fine. That's exactly when it isn't. Spreads at historic lows mean you're getting paid almost nothing for risk. $JOJO rotates to Treasuries when the risk isn't worth the reward. https://t.co/su2AGVy5J5
Warsh Denies President Ever Pressured Him on Interest Rates
Warsh: the President never asked me to predetermine or fix any particular rate. The President never, once, asked me to any particular interest rate decision, period. Nor would I agree to it.
Fed Official Dodges Rate Question, Emphasizes Policy Lag
Warsh: I don't believe in forward guidance, I should not be previewing for you... VanHollen: I'm asking about your framework: what would happen if interest rates were lowered to 1% or less. Would that likely push up prices. Warsh: the Fed has...
Portfolio Signals Remain Quiet, Possible Change Ahead
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: April 21, 2026 - Take Off..." Portfolio signals have been quiet...is that changing? - via The Lyons Share https://t.co/vKjcIU9Brh https://t.co/IfG2ETfCY5
Regional Trade Agenda Drives SADC Economic Growth
President @edmnangagwa welcomes the President of Botswana, @duma_boko at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport… Regional trade is his on the agenda … and it is the catalyst that will accelerate economic growth and prosperity in SADC & beyond…....
SanDisk Holds Tight at 900, Awaiting Breakout
Market leader Sandisk is getting awfully tight around this 900 level, seen below on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. On watch for a breakout or change of character. $SNDK #IBDPartner https://t.co/uTOmNYBFVL