Single‑mandate Central Banks Are Trapped, Forced to Hike
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Chart Signals Near‑term Market Bottom
When I start looking at charts like this we must be close to near term bottom 😂 https://t.co/zeOh4y6Cnl
Coil Trends Reveal Pre‑Iran Market Deterioration
strong trends come out of coils. so easy to see now... (this deterioration started well before Iran SNAFU). https://t.co/GjLz7VyWLz
Gold, Silver, Copper Forecasted Below 5‑Day SMA
GC, SI and HG will all have 7 closes below the 5 SMA today. https://t.co/9wuK7cjvOG
Pinball SELL on EC, BUY on $JY; Early Success
Yesterday as of close there was a Pinball SELL on the EC and JY a pinball Buy on the $. so far so good.... https://t.co/jyYJz5ELJT
Fed Rate Outlook Flips: From Cuts to Possible Hike
Fed funds have flipped to tiny pricing for hikes. Completely unforeseeable and insane move from the perspective of where we were a few months ago. We have gone from captured Fed will cut 3 times to oil shock opens door for...
Today's $4 Gas Still 33% Cheaper than 2008
If gasoline hits $4 now, that's still a third less than the $6 it hit in 2008 in today's dollars ($4 in nominal dollars then).
Early Skeptics Proved Right as Oil Prices Soar
Two weeks ago, Brent oil futures were in the 80s; the president was telling reporters that the war was "very complete" and that Iran was begging to negotiate; and WH defenders were claiming the war was "over" and accusing commodity...
GEV Targets 890 Hold, Eyes 893‑894 Upside
$GEV watching for a move and hold over the 890 area then 893-894 on my radar if price wants higher. Follow thru today https://t.co/IITb9BCPkn
10-Year Yield Hovers at 4.3%, Poised for Breakout
The 10-year couldn't close above 4.3% yesterday, but is trying again this morning. Lot of whipsaws (in both directions) with this chart, but this would sure look like a breakout https://t.co/17G6Y8TtLa
Slower Inventory, Strong Demand Thanks to Low Mortgage Spreads
Inventory growth has been much slower this year vs last; the housing demand curve has been positive this year because rates are still lower YoY. If mortgage spreads didn't improve rates would have already been above 7% already https://t.co/J8onCbn0WP
SPY Likely Rebounds to $660 Despite Support Test
Negative Exposure across the board on $SPY at the open. Testing support at $655 right now; the next level is $650. I am hesitant to short $655; I think a move towards $660 is more likely, given the strong exposure...
ARMs Offer $150 Monthly Savings, Biggest Discount Since 2022
"The typical homebuyer would save $150 per month taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage instead of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. That’s a 5.8% discount, the biggest ARM users have had since June 2022 in both dollar and percentage terms." -Redfin
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
FDX Call Spread Trade Targets 10x Return
$FDX "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 347.50/352.50 Call Spread ($3.50) and sell the March 325 Put for 50 cents." puts expire, sell call spread near $5 or watch max out at a 10x
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Kharg Island Tension Could Trigger Market Shock Soon
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
Boston Beer Matches Ten‑year Buybacks in Three Years
Boston Beer repurchased ~$530 million of its common stock over the past three years, which is roughly comparable to what the company spend on repurchases over the previous decade (FY13 - FY22) https://t.co/pROlFqwX7E
Stop Leaving Roth IRA Cash Idle—Invest for Growth
$70k of cash sitting in a Roth IRA… That’s 10 years of contributions getting only 2-4%/yr from MMF Instead of ~10%/yr from S&P 500 in that timeframe Just a reminder: your Roth IRA contributions need to actually be invested.
Cut Losses, Preserve Capital Amid SMCI Downturn
Caught in the $SMCI gap down. I took 40% off for a 27.3% loss I have divided the other 60% in half and will watch the first 30 mins and 60mins. To place a stop I...
S&P Holds Near High Amid War, Oil Shock
Remarkable with everything that's going on that the S&P 500 is only down 6% from its high. Market seems to be pricing in a short-lived War with Crude Oil crashing back down. This is the hopeful outcome but is the market...
Nasdaq, S&P Open Lower, Slip Below 200‑Day SMA
It looks like we are going to have a spicy close to the week with the US session opening with a sharp gap lower on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 that dropped both below their 200 SMA. Some serious...
February Home Sales Slowest Since 2016, 66-Day Average
"U.S. homebuyers are taking their time as we head into spring, which is usually the busy season for the housing market. The typical home that went under contract in February spent 66 days on the market. That’s the slowest February...
80 Mid‑Cap Firms at Historic EV/EBIT Lows
80 US or European companies trading in the 2nd percentile of their historical EV/EBIT valuation (market cap between $500M and $5B) 👇🏻 Which one is high up on your watchlist?
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
War’s Short‑term Impact, yet Markets Thrive Long‑term
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Saving More Cuts Needed Retirement Nest Egg
The reality is that trying to increase savings actually has a dual positive effect on reaching retirement: not only does it mean there’s more in the account to grow, but saving more reduces your retirement savings need. https://t.co/eEAqccbz3U #retirementplanning #advicers
G10 Hawkish Policies Weigh on Dollar Strength
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Hormuz Tensions Could Spike Oil Past $200, Triggering Long‑term Chaos
Reupping this as the continued Hormuz chaos seems increasingly likely to drive oil above $200/barrel, followed by years of hydrocarbon market chaos
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
QQQ Dips Below 595 for First Time in Months
4hr bars. this is the first time $QQQ has spent more than a few hours below 595 the past few months. https://t.co/hLFzKzlkWn
Energy Crisis Pushes Stocks 5% Below January High
Energy crisis pulls stocks 5% below January high, but path to quick recovery remains https://t.co/CZBb7LAj0e H/T @vixologist @SteveSosnick @StovallCFRA $SPX $VIX https://t.co/IbS0KOPgZY
Gold Bullion Faces Potential Peak, Bearish Engulfing Forms
did gold bullion peak? monthly bearish engulfing (in progress) & "biggest bar against" in motion #chartcrime... https://t.co/KU8aiYgVE8
Vol Premium Soars While VIX Stays Low
Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. https://t.co/fKAHUZs21I
Below 200‑Day MA Sparks Extreme Market Volatility
Stocks’ technicals continue to weaken, and for the first time in the post-Liberation Day bull market, U.S. large cap stocks are testing their 200-day moving average. Drops below the moving average have historically triggered more volatile trading. Extreme returns, both positive and...
US May Permit Iran Oil Sales to Boost Supply
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
CNY Posts Lowest USD Fix Since April 2023
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Long‑Only Investors Dump $9.6B in Record Five‑Sigma Selloff
From GS on Flows: - Long-only investors sold $9.6B across GS’ trading floor on Thursday, the biggest wave of selling in the firm’s data history (2022). - Thursday broke the prior record from July 2025, and marked a rare five-sigma event. https://t.co/sasYSAIUL0
Oil Prices Soar Despite Limited Infrastructure Damage, Demand at Risk
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...
Breadth Spike Near 30% May Trigger Short-Term Rally
We're getting close to 30% of $SPX members above their 50-day MA. Even if the longer-term trend continues bearish, bombed out breadth conditions like this can lead to short-term upside reversals. https://t.co/pCLd1WlCZh
Markets Unfazed as Iran Eases Hormuz Oil Flow
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
Big Tech Giants Stagnant for Over Two Years
$META and $AMZN stocks are flat over the past ~1.5 years. $MSFT is flat over the past 2+ years. Kind of interesting.
Europe/UK Rate Hike Likely: 12% April Odds
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
S&P Futures Target $655‑$657.5 Amid Pressure
Good morning. I’m on the road so limited contact from me. Spx futures-25 as “Boots on the ground” gets floated. Simplify it for today. Do we reclaim $655-$657.50 to relieve pressure. Or do we see $650.50 which looks...
Markets Price Fed Rate Hike, No Cuts Expected
For for first time this cycle, a small rate increase by the Fed is now priced in by year end, 12%. And no rate cuts anymore
Swaps Market Overprices Central Bank Rate Hikes
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Oversold Markets May Signal an Emerging Bottom
the selling has slowed, the markets are oversold, sentiment has turned quite bearish, fear is running high... let's watch for opening selling to turn into buying as a bottom forms... notice i said "a bottom", not "the bottom", the latter of...