Commodity Exchanges Distort Prices, Not Discover Them
Is the commodity exchange model broken? When physical markets and paper prices tell completely different stories – in oil, metals and beyond – it raises a fundamental question: are exchanges still discovering prices, or distorting them? In this article I discuss what’s going wrong, and what I believe could solve the problem. https://t.co/YgWDgkfuQL
Japanese Bond Yields Hit New Quad3 Cycle Highs
It's "off topic" for Macro Tourists this morning, but its still happening Japanese Bond Yields ramping to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs as markets price in higher inflation https://t.co/tz4Pb6zTgP
Oil Slides 2% After 58% Rally, Seen as Stock Boost
OIL: down -2% after inflating +58% in the last month, but Tourists will trade it as "bullish for stocks" (for now) https://t.co/uZ7JAkPj9u
SPX Futures Rise Amid Mixed Global Markets; Trim Positions
Mixed markets around the World as the news flow remains fluid. $spx futures +25 after a volatile evening. Keep moving ur feet as Friday gave a little confidence when weakness was absorbed even with strong oil. The daily has a...
3% of UK Stocks Create All Wealth, 97% Destroy Value
New UK research tracked every stock listed between 1975 and 2024. The finding: just 3.1% of UK stocks generated ALL the real wealth created by the market over 50 years. The other 97%? Collectively destroyed value.And the concentration is accelerating. 🧵 https://t.co/bhIoecLzfT
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops 23%, Russell 2000 Lags
"The Nasdaq 100’s forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) has compressed by 23% since the highs at the end of October, while the Russell 2000 P/E has only compressed by 9%." -Liz Thomas, SoFi
Family Offices Grapple with Drama, Taxes, and Geopolitics
The biggest family office stories of the week: 𝕏 Bill Ackman's family office drama (it had to be) An agentic-first family office A head-to-head on US wealth taxes Good news for London's FO scene The 94-year-old cashing in Billionaires age distribition reddit Lifestyle creep: How a planned $500k...
Saudi Raises Arab Light Price to Record Premium
Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship...
Gulf Funds Poised to Finance Paramount's $81B Warner Deal
MyPOV: the middle east to the rescue. Gulf Funds Near Deal to Back Paramount’s $81 Billion Takeover of Warner https://t.co/hTIMzrGhf5
Chinese Airlines Fill Void as Russian Airspace Closes
The Geopolitics of the Skies – Why Chinese Carriers are Redrawing the Global Aviation Map "The closure of Russian airspace to North American and European airlines has forced a rerouting that is as expensive as it is exhausting." https://t.co/HFTgbU023Q
MBS's Grand Plans Hampered by Severe Cash Shortage
"The problem is there was never enough cash to fund all his [Crown Prince MBS] ambitious initiatives." Indeed. That's why measures lie the balance of payments breakeven are useful. The Saudis needed $90 plus oil -- or near...
Patience Pays: Hold Through Temporary Investment Dips
Your investments can go down for months before delivering any gains. In fact, most of my biggest winners were down for 3 to 12 months before turning around. Do not beat yourself up if something you bought drops for a while. A common...
Bear Call Spread Targets Nifty Below 22650
Entered bear call spread on Nifty 7 Apr expiry. Sold 22650 CE @ 212.05 Bought 22750 CE @ 167.35 Net credit 44.70, RR ~1:1. View is for price to stay below 22650. Not expecting any meaningful upside from here. #Nifty50
Pakistan's Reserves Plunge One-Third Amid Debt Repayments
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Due to foreign debt repayments, Pakistan's foreign reserves are set to shrink by a STUNNING ONE-THIRD this month. PAK = THIRD WORLD = IN THE TANK. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/QKr6kb5Sop
Follow X, the Ultimate Counter‑indicator, Opposite Consensus Wins
X is the best counter-indicator on Earth - Much better than Jim Cramer Always do the opposite of the consensus on X
Iran Conflict Fuels Volatility in Interest‑rate Swap Markets
Uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect the global economy is stirring volatility in interest-rate swap markets https://t.co/6hCS7QWGmZ via @highisland https://t.co/GLOEYbXZko
Futures Hold Steady; Market Near Volatile Bottom
$NDX $SPX futures holding steady despite the ramp up in rhetoric over the weekend is a good sign. The stock market is severely washed out, we may get a retest or a marginal new low but on watch for a...
India's Russian Crude Imports Surge 94% in March
🇮🇳India’s Russian crude imports rebound sharply — up nearly 94% in March MoM and 10% YoY. https://t.co/O0zIu8LcIi
China's Excess Capacity Fuels Cheap Electrification in the Global South
An interesting question to ponder is whether Chinese overcapacity is essentially indirectly subsidizing the electrification of the "global south". It's similar to countries buying oil on the cheap, typically to stockpile. At the moment, oil is of course not cheap....
Qatar Aims to Resume LNG Shipments via Hormuz
Qatar is attempting to send LNG shipments through Hormuz for first time since the Iran war started 🚨🚨 If successful, this would be the first time a loaded LNG tanker has gone through Hormuz in over a month. ~20% of global...
Oil Inventories Falling, Price Spike Imminent, Catastrophe Ahead
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, we’re only seeing the start of what will become a major oil catastrophe. At present, we’re burning through oil inventories. Once inventories dwindle, oil prices will SPIKE. THE WORST IS YET TO COME....
China Restarts US Oil Imports Amid Middle East Disruption
China imports US oil for Asian fuel markets amid Hormuz crisis @asiatimesonline https://t.co/Iy0aRy8vam China is moving to resume large-scale purchases of United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and tightening fuel markets...
US External Deficits Mirror Unsustainable Domestic Borrowing
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." https://t.co/h7ob7Aac6A via @ft
Long Bias on Asia ORB: Price Above VWAP
🌏 Asia ORB just set for MNQ ─────── Price is above VWAP — bias is long Buy rips through 24,229 Buy dips at 24,164 as long as price stays above VWAP ─────── Range: 65 pts Watch us trade it live 9am NY: https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ https://t.co/sdYmWTFb2W
Qatar
Dozens of empty Qatari LNG tankers sit idle across Asia 🇶🇦🚢 The world's top LNG export plant in Qatar has been shut for over a month, upending the gas market and leaving the nation's fleet of ships without orders Hormuz has also...
India's Energy Imports Quadruple Since 2000, Heightening Vulnerability
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s net energy imports have exploded over the past 2 decades. Net energy imports have SURGED more than 4x since 2000. MORE ENERGY IMPORTS = MORE VULNERABILITY. https://t.co/PxS0fxVpuJ
Cap Student Loans at $50k, Slash College Costs
We need to do this for all loans. We’d see the cost of college plummet overnight. Universities have become slush funds for administrators, which is why they are giant expensive resorts with pools and waterslides and grottos. Cap student loans at...
Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Spikes Oil, Fuels Market Volatility
Trump's 48-hour Iran ultimatum just sent oil futures through the roof. This geopolitical tension could spell trouble for broader markets. Going live in 2 hours to trade this volatility with our DOTS indicator signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/E2Zf77HxKR
S&P 500 Valuation Drops as Earnings Surge, Recession Fears Unfounded
The S&P 500's valuation multiple fell 18% while forward earnings climbed to a record high. The market priced in recession fears that analysts never shared. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/nsxnGQf0yN
April Matches July as S&P’s Most Likely Green Month
Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 in April has been higher 80% of the time, tied with July for the most likely month to be green. https://t.co/aVppxUQE3r
TMDE Spikes 10x Rvol, Watch Supply Range
Over 10x rvol on this resurgence on $TMDE last Friday, so I'll be watching this for continuation thru it's daily supply ranges into this week. Super simple S/D flip setup as shown below, so as always, no break means NO TRADE. Range...
Mixed Sentiments Signal Emerging Market Rebound
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Investor Sentiment is down, Economic Sentiment is up. 2. Markets appear to be following the Trump Weave. 3. Oil Shock Analogs highlight the worst case. 4. Tech sentiment is deeply oversold. 5. Global equities are up from...
Futures Verdict: President’s Weekend Bender Hurts Business
If you were wondering whether the President’s weekend bender helped or hurt the long-term interest of American business, futures markets just opened, and delivered their verdict. https://t.co/YNWdATAMmc
MNQ Gap Fill Could Trigger V‑Shape Recovery or Bearish Drop
Futures market is open and we have a small gap down on MNQ (Nasdaq) I have two different scenarios that I’m waiting for and expect to reveal itself by London session Either we push up and fill the gap, then retest the...
Plan Ready, Execution Missing: My Bounce Breakdown
I had the exact playbook for this week's bounce. Wrote it out Tuesday morning. Then I didn't follow it. Full breakdown in this week's post 👇 https://t.co/bnh00L8Xr6 https://t.co/KNHksZ0ieR
Early Signs Suggest Iraq Flow Could Become Significant
There’s something to this Iraq stuff, even if it’s still too early to say how consequential this flow will grow to be https://t.co/S1itXIUl4L
War May End, but Oil Supply Disruptions Linger
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, even if the US-ISRAELI war on Iran ends soon, the damage to supply chains has been done. Oil flows will be disrupted for months or years. https://t.co/SxmxwhkvAY
Double‑digit Prompt Spreads Demand Explicit Delivery Month Quotes
When you need to explicitly include delivery months in all crude futures price quotes because we have double digit prompt timespreads https://t.co/cvrXe7FuP3
Price Action Reveals Truth; Opinions Spin Stories
Price action tells the truth while opinions tell stories. - Ghost of the Pit https://t.co/K1tiyiMWDu
Pending Sales Hit Multi-Year Highs, Growth Slows
Purchase apps, weekly pending, and total pending sales are still at multi-year highs, but growth has slowed over the last 2 weeks. The 6 weeks of positive YoY data on the weekly pendings were snapped last week, even though we...
Geopolitical Risk Dominates S&P 500 10‑K Disclosures
I analyzed fifty S&P 500 10-Ks. The data is wild. I scanned for 8 risk themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical risk, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession. Morgan Stanley has 221 mentions of geopolitical risk. Citigroup has 269 mentions. Bank of America had...
AI Reveals Optimal Sub‑System Pairings and Allocation
I've been playing around with AI to look closer into some old strategies of mine by feeding it a 10-year trade list. I initially asked it to assess the 10 sub-systems within this short-term strategy and look for issues that...
Buy Cash‑flow Assets Cheap, Ignore Market Hype
"The intelligent investor buys discounted cash-producing assets, not market excitement." Stop chasing hype, start owning real value.
Existing Home Sales at 1.29M, Well Below Normal
We will get this updated this week with the new existing home sales report. ...
U.S. Stocks Plunge Following Liberation Day Tariffs
This is what the 🇺🇸 stock market looked like on April 3rd, 2025 the day after the Liberation Day tariffs were announced
Simple Steps to Build Strong Credit Quickly
Building your credit is not hard. Do this: - pay off your credit cards on time, every month - keep credit utilization low by requesting increased credit limits every 6-12 months - keep old accounts open, even if you don’t use the credit cards -...
Crude Oil Gaps Higher, Outpaces Falling Futures
/CLK6 gaps open to 112.96, trades up to 114.83 (Friday close of 111.89)...now +1.7%ish /ESM6 -0.6% /NQM6 -0.7% /ZNM6 -0.03% DXY +0.02%
Seasoned Investors Turning to Private Money Lending Boom
I think the private money lending sector is about to grow even more. I see so many experienced investors who focused on raising capital for their deals now shift to being the private lender.
US‑Iran Talks Show Positive Momentum After Holiday Pause
catching up on the news after the holiday week, seems like the US-Iran negotiations are going well
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Threatens UST Long‑end Auctions
This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print...