China Lifts BHP Iron Ore Ban as Mills Scramble
China eases ban on BHP iron ore after steel mills rush to buy in amid price rises https://t.co/WaN0cB2ddK
Short‑End Bonds Spike on Energy Shock, Exposing Complacency
Short end bond curve (OUS) reaction to the energy shock, and the MASSIVE market complacency. https://t.co/FPG8npWCCQ
Trump’s Waiver Ends Flawed Russian Oil Price Cap
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
Wealth Grows When Debt Funds Asset Purchases
Your parents told you to avoid debt. That advice kept them middle class. The wealthy use debt to buy assets. Learn the difference.
Oil Options Implied Volatility Surpasses 2022 War Peak
"Implied vol in oil options is above 100% (1m, ATM), climbing above levels seen at the peak during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and comparable to those during the pandemic lockdown panic" --DB
Treasury Yields Surge, Mortgage Rates Spike Amid Deficit Fears
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Ensemble Gains 1.8% YTD, Outperforming S&P
Weekly Market Signals update. The ensemble is up 1.8% YTD, vs. -3.1% for $SPX. Read the free section for details. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/QvYPX44Oyr
EUR/USD Plummets 5% to Seven‑Month Low, Tests Support
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Crashes to Seven-Month Lows- 5% Drop Exposes Pivotal Support https://t.co/xPrn5Ir44G $EURUSD Monthly & Weekly Charts https://t.co/G3WNmBzkgW
Weigh Mortgage Payoff versus Investing for High Earners
You’re 35, Tech Director, Seattle. $600k household income. $900k retirement $700k brokerage $300k home equity with $1.2M mortgage Pay off your mortgage or keep investing
Buying Hides Massive Hidden Costs—Compare Rent Wisely
When you buy, you'll spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on irrecoverable costs like: - Interest - Transaction fees - Maintenance - Opportunity cost But the real Q to ask: 1. How does the math work out for buying vs renting? 2. What about the non-financial...
Five Essential Moves for Traders During Corrections
Here are 5 Things Traders Should Do During a Correction ✅ Study Previous Market Leaders ✅ Review trades ✅ Update Rules ✅ Do a study ✅ Monitor RS & Markets I wrote a full article on this for 5,000+ traders Sign up here to get it today...
Record Hedge Fund Shorts Signal Imminent Squeeze
Bearish hedge fund positioning is extreme: Shorts in US-listed ETFs +10% Thursday—2nd-biggest daily jump since 2016 (only topped by +16% on April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day”). ETF shorts +12% this week (after +8% last), +23% in last month. US macro shorts (incl. index...
Underweight High Short‑Interest Stocks Generates Consistent Alpha
Short squeezes make headlines. But systematically underweighting stocks with elevated short interest (in a sector-neutral portfolio) continues to generate alpha. Notably, only ~4% of stocks across Wall Street carry a SELL rating. https://t.co/MI1AzbmeRF
Oil Loss Anywhere Sends Prices Soaring Everywhere, U.S. Knows
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
Micro Futures Simplify Trade Management Across Cleaner Markets
Most traders only trade Nasdaq or gold. But markets like Dow Jones, Russell, crude oil, and natural gas often move with cleaner trends. The futures ticker you trade, the volatility, and your position size all impact your results. Using micro futures and choosing...
SEC Filings Reveal Insider Truth Others Overlook
Reading SEC filings that clarify an inside view others remain willfully blind to... how's your Saturday going?
Quick Oil Options Tips: Read Vol Surface Instantly
One last pump...this came out yesterday. Dean and I talk oil, options, and some handy tricks for understanding a vol surface with a glance
S&P Breadth Drops Below 50%, Warning of Market Weakness
The S&P 500 is losing its breadth at both the stock and sector level, suggesting that the minor drop in the index year to date may be masking emerging weakness. The percent of stocks on the index that remain above their...
Silver Vault Drops 2.6M Oz, Down 142 Tons Weekly
comex silver vault update Registered: 79M oz (2,457 tons) Daily Change : -2.6 M oz (81 Tons) left the vault on Thursday WTD Change : - 142Tons
Newsom's Refinery Closures Drive Sky‑high Gas Prices
Newsom drove one refinery to shut down last year and one that will shut down in another month. Our gas prices were already sky high because of these actual and forecasted closures - it forced us to import gas and...
Technical Signals Warn of Potential 20‑25% Market Correction
Four technical signals today look almost identical to early March 2025, right before last spring’s $SPX selloff. The risk of a 20–25% correction is as high as it’s been in nearly a year. Counterpoint: fair value using $305 EPS at 21.5x...
Leverage IRC 199A for Massive QBI Tax Savings
The planning opportunities created by IRC Section 199A after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are tremendous. Here's how you can help clients reduce their tax burden through creative strategies around the QBI deduction. Read more about the 3 buckets of...
Rising Junk Yields Signal Early Credit Weakness
Credit spreads are starting to move. Junk bond yields just hit a 3-month high at 7.34%, while high-yield spreads are trending higher in early 2026. That’s usually the first crack. Credit weakens → liquidity tightens → risk assets feel it next. Still early. Time...
IEA Taps One-Third of Reserves, Biggest Release Since 1973
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Oil Prices Held Below $100 by Trump Victory Bet
Correct. I’ve said since day one that with a disruption of this magnitude, the only thing preventing oil prices from soaring much higher than $100 is a market bet that Trump finds a way to declare mission accomplished very soon.
Oil Spike and Strait Closure Cripple Emerging Markets
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
Tech's Top Stock Stays Calm Despite Bearish RSI
$XLK - I don't like seeing the largest component of the market getting comfortable with it's RSI being in a bearish regime..... https://t.co/0TYPtYcK5X
Early Hormuz Closure Modeling Shows Real Risk, Prepares Clients
Not nasty — prescient. Our Battlespace and Barrel Flow report modeled 7- and 30-day Hormuz closure scenarios (among others) in June 2025 because the risk was real and our clients needed to be prepared. No one's enjoying this.
Market's Slow Grind Tests Patience, Not a Crash
Dow below 47K. S&P at 2026 lows. Three straight weekly losses. What concerns me isn't the level — it's the character. This isn't a crash. It's a slow grind lower that constantly tempts you to buy too early. The 2008 decline took...
Markets Grind Lower; Dip‑buyers Run Out of Bargains
Dow below 47K. S&P at 2026 lows. Three straight weeks of losses. The "buy the dip" crowd is running out of dips to buy. This is what repricing looks like. Slow. Grinding. Relentless. $DIA https://t.co/n4HR4uNcCX
More Studios Drive Down Metro Prices, Boost 3BR Affordability
This is also why unit typology in new construction matters If we build lots of Studio units in Neighborhood A does that “free up” larger units for families in THAT neighborhood? Maybe More likely, it lowers prices in the Metro and ...
Dragonfly Capital Predicts This Week's Market Direction
Dragonfly Capital - What to expect from the stock market this week https://t.co/xviZaGYVZ6 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $TLT $GLD and more
IREN Valued at 5
$IREN 2028 Estimates: - Revenue $4B - EBITDA $3.1B $16.6B market cap, means $IREN trades 5x 2028 EBITDA. What is a fair multiple for $IREN?
Patience, Structure, and Liquidity Drive Smart SMC Trades
Smart Money Concept (SMC) Buy Entry 📈🔥 Patience and precision create the best trades. This setup shows a clean SMC buy entry with confirmation from BOS, FVG, and Order Block, aligning perfectly with market structure. Understanding liquidity and waiting for the right moment...
Most Exited Positions Kept Falling After We Sold
Who gets you out? 14 of 15 positions that we exited since 2/27 continued to go down FURTHER after we exited them https://t.co/dXxme06N4C
Surplus Supply Likely Drives Gas Prices Back Toward $2
Gasoline Surge Above $3 May Fuel Reversion Toward $2 - The national average gasoline price has jumped above $3 a gallon on the back of the Iran war, which may fuel reversion toward $2 by year-end. My graphic highlights a...
Meta Reaches 100‑week MA, Announces 20% Workforce Cuts
$META hit its 100 week MA on Friday for the 3rd time since November. After the market close it announced that it was planning to cut 20% of its workforce. The vertical lines show the last 2 times it announced...
Short Software Stocks Amid CNBC Bottom Calls
Despite all attempts (by CNBC types who didn't get out of these stocks) to "call the bottom", we remain Short Software and names like $ADBE @HedgeyeComm https://t.co/Htn4Kkf5T0
Wait for Market Structure Shift Before Entering Trades
Understanding Market Structure Shift Smart traders don’t chase the market — they wait for confirmation. A clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) signals when momentum changes and where smart money begins to take control. Mastering this concept helps traders identify high-probability entries instead of...
Industrial Real Estate Thrives on Global Structural Shifts
Industrial real estate continues to be one of the most resilient sectors in commercial real estate — and the demand is being driven by structural shifts in the global economy. For investors and operators, understanding these macro drivers is critical when...
Follow Josh for Priceless Fertilizer Market Insights
If you’re following the fertilizer stuff you need to follow Josh. His main thing is not speculation (actually performs a service for the world by helping farmers) but his ags market insights were invaluable to me during early 2022.
Build a Buffer, Not Just Monthly Leftovers
Just having money left over at the end of the month is not enough. You need to have enough surplus to handle life when it happens. Your car might break down, something might come up at your child’s school, or...
SPY Downtrend Confirmed by Weak Momentum and Breadth
$SPY - Sustained uptrends don't tend to see this weak of momentum AND breadth..... Another way to say it - the recent downside price action is being confirmed by momentum and breadth breakdown..... https://t.co/EykTASoZSL
XLP's Counterpunches Forming, Patience Required
$XLP - The counterpunches are setting up....just need to see them land...then we need follow through...it won't all happen in one day... https://t.co/ifxmmTsGDK
Use a Simple Mental Model for the Oil Shock
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
Fear Stems From Market Declines, Not Saba’s Bid
I’m genuinely interested in everyone’s thoughts. IMHO, what’s stoking fear @AcaciaCap isn’t our bid but the massive declines in everything from OTF, TCPC, FSK, OXLC, BPRE, the tripling of outflows for Cliffwater and Blue Owl, the frauds, the rise in...
Buy on Earnings Surprises, Sell Within 15 Months
I love when stock pickers have very disciplined unique strategies like Josh Goldberg. He only buys after earnings surprises and doesn't hold longer than 15-months. From the book, Stock Market Maestros
Career Growth Powers Your FIRE Portfolio
Best FIRE strategy nobody talks about: 1. Improve yourself 2. Make more money 3. Invest the surplus Your career funds the portfolio.
Big‑cap Declines Dwarf Oversold Breadth Signals
$MAGS - Those oversold breadth signals won't matter much for the S&P 500 if the big dawgs breakdown (more)..... https://t.co/fQaJD4av6D
Berkshire Hathaway Resumes Buyback, Purchases $226M of Shares
Berkshire Hathaway bought back the equivalent of 309 $BRK.A shares (~$226 million worth), on March 4th, the day it resumed it stock buyback program for the first time since May 2024 - CNBC