Gas Oil Retests Support, Poised for Further Upside
Gas Oil has retest support and should now push higher, although one more retest is possible https://t.co/NI5aQRpZPM
Iran Conflict Fuels Gulf Tanker Attacks, Crude Surge
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
SPR Release Announcement Triggers Panic, Fuels Oil Prices
In case you are wondering why oil prices continued to rise despite the US announcement of a massive SPR release: In the SPR literature, more than 30 years ago, experts warned that announcing an SPR release might signal crisis and cause...
Supply Shocks and Politics Won’t Push Oil Prices Down
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
Money Supply Drives Inflation, Though Lags Vary
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
Brent Crude Nears $100 Again, Reason Unclear
Brent crude pops back toward $100 because, well, hard to say why it wasn’t there already https://t.co/SGjbVYODt2
Flat Housing Inventory Persists Unless Rates Spike Dramatically
It's going to be a boring year for housing inventory, unless rates spike up big time However, now that we are in 2026 You can see the difference in the inventory channel When comparing sales crashing from 2005 to 2008, vs sales...
Built AI-Powered Options Screener in 35 Minutes
holy shit, @perplexity_ai computer build an options screener with AI built in for my parents in 35 minutes
Secure Savings, Pay Debt, Invest, Stop Stressing Small Stuff
Buuld an emergency savings, payoff your debt, invest your money and watch how you stop sweating the small shit.
Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Energy, Food, Metal Supplies
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
Self‑storage Rentals Surge 46% in Early March
The self storage rental market could finally be taking steps in the right direction. First 10 days of March last year: 206 rentals First 10 this year: 301 rentals
US Oil Prices Jump 70% Since December,
US oil prices extend gains to rise above $94/barrel, now up +70% since December 2025.
Australian Fuel Prices Surge, up $0.77 per Litre
Fuel has now gone up by $0.77 cents a liter in Australia and keeps climbing by the hour. How much further shall it goooo
2026 Private Credit Funds Mirror 200
A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007.
Physical Market Beats Narrative as Brent Nears $100
DAY 13: The physical market appears to have won the battle over the manufactured narrative. The IEA announced 400 mil barrels release but crude went 🆙 instead of down. Brent eyeing $100 again. 🧵
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
Iran's Pre‑revolution Growth Could've Made It Developed
Today I learned that Iran's GDP growth rate pre-Islamic revolution was 5%-9% a year, and that's dropped to 2% year in the ensuing 40 years. Iran had been on pace to be a South Korean or Turkey-style developed country before...
US Taps 172 Million Barrels From Strategic Reserve
United States to release 172 million barrels of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Department of Energy $USO $XLE
U.S. to Release 172 M Barrels Over 120 Days
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.
SPR Releases Are Optics, Not Price Drivers
Reminder: tapping the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" is just about optics. It has no meaningful impact on the price of Oil because the reserve is so small, only representing 20 days of US Oil consumption (assuming we used it all) and...
Oil and Commodities Set to Rise Despite Iran War Outcome
Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. https://t.co/tMKWpSXhYe
US SPR Drawdown To
Finally, some US SPR detail. Reportedly beginning next week. Still no mention of official flow rate (what really matters), but Sec Wright said the drawdown would last ~120 days which yields ~1.4 MMbpd draw pace. (Biden admin managed ~1 MMbpd max drawdown rate...
Self-Directed IRAs Empower New Era of Retirement Investing
Retirement investing is changing, and most people don’t realize it yet. In this episode, Henry Yoshida (CEO & Co-Founder of Rocket Dollar) breaks down why the traditional retirement system was never designed for true investor control, and how private markets, real...
SVIX Climbs as Front‑end VIX Futures Sold
How the hell was $SVIX (short vol) up 4.5% today with equities mostly in the red?? Someone was selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/oyCW72pqSw
True Margin of Safety: Quality Business at Fair Price
Margin of safety isn't just about price. A cheap stock with a bad business isn't safe. Real margin of safety comes from buying quality businesses at reasonable prices. Good businesses protect your downside. A fair price protects your returns.
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Markets Reveal Signals on Iran War and US Role
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
Market Ignores Good News, Flags Geopolitical Risk
Today the market got exactly what it wanted: inflation right on target at 2.4%. And it still fell. Oil surged 7% to $89.50. Ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz. The FBI warned about Iranian drone attacks on U.S....
Triangle Breakout Could Propel Gold to $7k, Silver $150
Another triangle pattern is currently forming in gold, silver, and other precious metals, and if it breaks out, we could see gold surge to $6,000 to $7,000 fairly quickly and silver to $150+.
AI Can't Beat Markets; Hedge Funds Already Arbitrage Any Edge
While I think there are some great use cases for AI to do investment research (got an investment thesis, let it help crunch the data, or sift through a zillion 10-K filings to spot which companies match your criteria), I...
Opponents Haven't Urged Fannie/Freddie to Ease Credit Standards
Have any of the people who oppose investors owning “build to rent” housing called on Fannie/Freddie to liberalize their lending standards to lower FICO buyers?
Buy Norwegian Stocks Each Time Bodo / Glimt Scores
claude, buy norwegian equities every time Bodo/Glimt scores a goal. don’t hedge the FX. make no mistakes
500K ADU Raises Questions on Property Value Impact
Working on a property with a $500,000 accessory dwelling added two years ago. It’ll be interesting to see how much this adds to value. That’s a big price tag for an ADU.
Single-Family Rentals Decline, Challenging Neoliberal Housing Narrative
The problem with this view is that the number of single-family rental homes in the U.S. has been in decline for years, as research from Harvard, John Burns and Redfin have all shown.
FTSE100 Stalls in Sideways
#FTSE100 doji Candle and Sideways. Support 10082, 9630. Resistance 10636, ATH 10935. RSI 48.5 near Neutral. Doing 13/21 day EMA Bear Cross. Bottom Bollinger Band 10075. Midpoint Line 10530. Top Band 10978.
DAX Slides Into Gap, Bearish Signals Dominate
#DAX doji Candle and dropped back into the Gap from yesterday. Support 23342, 22927. Resistance 24061, 24367. RSI 40 not low. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish. Bottom Bollinger Band 22852. Midpoint Line 24170. Top Band 25470.
Existing Home Sales Lag, Yet Show 4% Post‑Storm Gain
NAR's existing home sales came out for February and it doesn't yet reflect what we're seeing in the weekly pending sales that we track. NAR is trying to publish this data earlier to keep up, but it still has...
Brent Oil Stalls Near $95 Resistance, RSI Overbought
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Support $84.1, $80, $73.2, $66.8. Resistance $95, $100, $108.2. RSI 70 Overbought. Top Bollinger Band $105.6. Midpoint Line $85.3. Bottom Band $64.9.
ECB Rate Bet Reversal Costs Traders on Options
Traders suffer losses on options after U-turn in ECB rate bets https://t.co/IOlxq962Fs via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/EsJzYFwmea
Avoid Trades when Long and Short MAs Hug
Most traders get chopped alive in Asia and London sessions. Not because they're bad traders. Because they ignore one simple signal. When your long-term MA and short-term MA are hugging each other, the market has no conviction. No conviction = no trade. The...
IEA Ignores Demand Solutions, Relies Solely on Supply
Final comment on IEA release: If the shortfall is such that it requires a 400 million barrels release, surely demand measures should had been approved too: fuel switching (oil-to-coal, gas-to-coal); societal behaviour (lower highway speed limits, lower AC/heating use), and...
SPX Forms Multi‑Week Descending Channel Amid Bull Trend
What would you say the prevailing trend is for the $SPX? That is a question of time frame of course, but there is a multi-week descending trend channel tentatively forming against the larger bull trend from last April's Liberation Day tariff...
Shift From Efficient Frontier to Temporal Risk Management
I created a tool to visualize your sequence risk in a portfolio. We talk a lot about the "efficient frontier", but the EF turns investing into a performance chasing and alpha optimization problem. The average investor doesn't care about this...
Cliffwater Redemption Rate Hits 14%, Within Predicted Range
Saba Capital’s @boazweinstein called the Cliffwater redemption rate in yesterday’s ’Inside Alts, where he said it would be between 10% and 20%. (Cliffwater’s Q1 redemption rate was 14%, according to a source familiar with the matter) https://t.co/hplp7WPkAp
Trump Confirms US Join IEA Oil Release, Plans SPR Refill
President Trump has formally confirmed the US is participating in the IEA emergency oil stock release. “We’ll do that and then we’ll fill it up,” Trump said referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Right now, we’ll reduce it a little...
Bumble's Cash Flow Outpaces Valuation, Fueling Short Squeeze
Bumble is printing cash. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $71.6m vs $63m guidance. Guides for $78m adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. Just $413m net debt end of 2026. No cash taxes for the foreseeable future. Should do ~$200m FCF in 2026...
AMC's $1.10 Level Marks a Soul‑saving Battle
My first tweet predicting $1.10 would be a level. At the time $AMC was barcoding $1.50. I told you that this level was where $AMC would fight for its soul.
Key Chart Sparks Discussion Among Factor Community
This could be an important chart. Discussing it today with members of the Factor community at https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY $FGBL1! https://t.co/4KCxWZ88fE
S&P 500 Stalls
$SPX -0.08% and closes smack-dab in the middle of its intra-day range. Was it a failure to go up or an inability to go down?
QQQ Needs 100‑Day MA Close to Confirm Low
$QQQ - The bullish engulfing candle on Monday didn't have follow through in the last 2 days. It has to close above the 100 day MA to in order to confirm an intermediate term low. The odds favor that it...