66% Downside Day at 11:00 Holds No Significance
A mere 66% downside day at 11:00. Has no significance. DVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per https://t.co/iX5L1DJIjD. See https://t.co/7TpOm9eA5A for explanation.
Investor Creates $300B Bond Fund, Redefines Fixed Income
This credit investor built the world’s largest bond fund, running nearly $300B, and reshaped fixed-income investing forever.
USO's IV30 Spikes 15%, Contrary to Expectations
$USO leads everything today in IV30 rise, +15%, the exact opposite of what we want to see
US Dollar Near Yearly High Amid Iran Conflict
Today's Opening Bell We covered a lot today- asset chapters provided US Dollar Testing Yearly High as Iran War Escalates https://t.co/7jdA7902Rt
Jones Act Suspension Hints at Looming Oil Export Limits
If the Trump admin is suspending the Jones Act you better believe that they're pretty darn close to some kind of petroleum export restrictions. Those will make the *domestic* US pricing environment more tolerable for a few weeks—after which it will...
Historic Rally Marks 161.8% Bear Market Retracement
After a historic rally from the Liberation Day lows, I don't think the pause around here that we've seen for months is all that surprising. This is also a 161.8% retracement of the bear market from last year. Random? Maybe, but...
Prioritize Sustainable Returns Over Maximum Short-Term Gains
Instead of asking: "How can I earn the highest return possible?" Investors should ask: "What are the highest returns I can sustain for the LONGEST period of time without going bust." This changes entirely how you invest.
Expect a 4‑Hour Market Stall After Rapid Move
Those who smoke brisket can relate. In big move days the move happens rapidly till about now. Then the combination of 0DTE and leveraged ETF rebalance flows causes a 4 hour stall. Wrap the meat. Leave...
SPY Holds Underside Resistance, May Slip to 650
Break last week, follow through down this week thus far $SPY as underside resistance held. Drift down to next support would not surprise us (650s) https://t.co/DqWUufZwgu
Homebuyer Demand Index Slightly Up, Still Near Historic Lows
Reventure's homebuyer demand index inched up this week to a 9/100. This index tracks pending sales, mortgage apps, internet searches for real estate, and buyer sentiment. A "normal" reading on the index is 50, a level which we saw before the pandemic. Note...
AAPL Misses Expectations, Slides to $254 Key Level
I thought $aapl would act better this morning. It didn’t. Hurt a bit. $254 a key level now
Protection Costs Surge Despite Modest S&P Gains
Wow. The cost for protection is nearly off the charts. Feels extreme given S&P 500 is about 4% from new ATHs. Nice one from @MacroCharts
Don't Forget Dilution: Share Value Beats Company Size
Many investors ignore dilution. But if a company keeps issuing shares, your ownership percentage shrinks over time. Long-term investing isn’t about how big the company gets…it’s about how much each share becomes worth. #investingtips #investingstrategy #investingmindset
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
MEG Shut-In Hurts Tankers, Fuels Oil Rally, SPY Overbought
Full shut-in of the MEG (AG) is obviously bearish for short- mid-term #tanker markers. The tanker stocks are betting this lasts *months*. Oil is partially reflecting, but $SPY is wildly bloated. Trade: -Bullish oil firms: $KOS -Mega bearish $SPY -Holding key tankers: $DHT $STNG
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
Oil Likely Tops Soon; Expect Retracement to $98‑$110
$USOIL - As I've already stated I think that a major top is already in, but whenever a commodity goes parabolic, it usually doesn't collapse in a straight line, but retraces a significant portion of the initial decline. The upside...
Coercive A&E Dominates $38B Software Maturity Market
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
OBDC's 25% NAV Discount Highlights Stale Marks
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
Oil Near Record Close Despite Falling Short of Early Highs
Oil is still well below its highs from the extreme buying that we saw early Monday morning. But if it closed here for the day, it'd be its highest close yet.
Bilt's Simple Redemption Turns 30¢ Into $1
The Best Bilt Cash Redemption Is The Most Boring — But It Turns 30 Cents Into A Dollar - View from the Wing https://t.co/z6kxNi1nO9
Young Adult Homeownership Halved, Dream Becomes Elusive
She's not wrong. One reason "we're in trouble" is young adult access to the American Dream is so diminished--as evidenced, for instance, by this decline in home ownership.👇🏽 ✔️ 1980: 59% of young adults owned a home ✔️Now: 37% of young adults...
DKS Gaps Up on Earnings, Pullback Still Above Yesterday
$DKS gap up and pullback now well over yesterday close on ER. New here on the pullback
Watch 10 AM Gap‑
Intraday breadth levels --10:05 AM. At 10:00 AM is typically when you get gap down bounces. Let's see how this plays out. https://t.co/KEBy6nTMTA
Market Walkdown Signals Impending Sprint to Exit
How wild would it be if everyone who called for Black Monday last weekend was just a week early? The market is being consistently walked down and eventually people come to their senses as to what's going on and the walk...
US Long Bonds Have Halved Since 2020 Peak
U.S. long bonds $TLT are -51.7% over the last 6-years since peaking in 2020... https://t.co/5aCcOZfJZT
Step‑up Basis Wipes Out Taxes on Inherited Gains
Step up in basis is one of the most powerful tax provisions and can wipe out a lot of taxes. Say your dad bought $200k of stocks in a brokerage account that are now worth $2M. He passes them down to you...
SPY Slides Below $669, Hits Weekly Low
$spy failed it reclaim $673 and now below $669.50. See if it stays below. Fast tape. $662ish is low of the week
Semiconductor Index Shows Head‑Shoulders Failure
$SOX Daily. Heckuva spot for semiconductors to fail: potential head & shoulders top & lower high. $NVDA has been negatively diverging from sector for months https://t.co/LiA0UEyDIL
Negative Gamma Pushes SPX/SPY Toward 6700 Support
Gamma exposure for the combined $SPX + $SPY view shows mostly negative exposure under spot. $6700 is a key support level; if it breaks, we could see a move towards $6650 pretty quickly. The range we are currently in is...
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
NVDA Short Offers 4:1 Risk‑reward,
With a stop loss at $192, where $NVDA has not been able to break out above, the risk is $10 from here with $40 upside (short) down to $142. Great risk / reward. Oh by the way, $NVDA is 7.7%...
Build-to-Rent Criticism Stems From Misunderstanding Its Purpose
A lot of the criticism about build-to-rent on this app is grounded in ignorance about what BTR is, who builds it, who funds it, who lives in it, and why it's appealing to the small share of families who choose...
Housing Market Set to Grow if Rates Stay Steady
#Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaAFKo
USD Pressure Rises; Japan Not Defending Fixed Rate
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
Gold Stays Flat Despite Safe‑Haven Surge and Tensions
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Fundamentals Sustain Success, Not Just Hype
A mentor I had 20 years ago would say, “You might be able to pump them up, but fundamentals have to keep them up.”
Gap Fill Levels Test December Low Support
Another day… another downside gap at the opening… and another test of the support at the December low. $SPY would have to rally to 673.34 and $QQQ to 605.03 to fill today’s gaps. How quickly they get filled -- if...
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
Disruption at Oman, UAE Oil Ports Could Spike Prices
All eyes & hopes rest on the 2 main oil ports of #MinaAlFahal in Oman and #Fujeirah in UAE if any of these continues to be impacted then it's serious for oil prices. ميناء_الفحل #ميناء_الفجيرة#
Lennar Shares Plunge over 50%, Hitting Multi-Year Lows
Lennar $LEN - reporting today... currently more than -50% from highs... and a contestant on the 52-week new lows list (and multi-year new lows list)... https://t.co/gPTOqr0qj4
Dollar, VIX, and Yields Surge Past 20‑Day EMA
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
Hold ISOs 1‑Year/2‑Year for Capital Gains
ISOs are attractive because, under the right conditions, gains from their exercise and sale can qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. However, to receive this preferential tax treatment, employees must wait to sell the employer stock until at least one...
Estate Planning Must Address Digital Access Challenges
Many assume estate planning is handled once documents are signed, but DIGITAL estate planning does not behave that way. For many clients, the real issue is an ACCESS problem: email, cloud photos, financial logins, business accounts, and Terms of Service...
Housing Starts Beat Forecast, Yet Momentum Questioned
Housing starts surprised to the upside in the latest report, rising to a 1.487 million SAAR and coming in above consensus expectations. On the surface, the headline suggests renewed momentum in residential construction. However... https://t.co/1r862BDOdv
Open Text Slides Below 50-Day Moving Average
Open Text Stock Price Crosses Below 50-Day Moving Average. Here's What Happened. (MarketBeat) #OTEX #Technology #Stocks #Valuations #JVGpost https://t.co/brHJMM3wep https://t.co/zKbPrCs6RV
Futures Struggle at WTD AVWAP; Overnight Low Break Risks Trouble
Futures are struggling with the WTD AVWAP, a break of the overnight lows could be troublesome $ES_F $NQ_F https://t.co/pQGwLxlyHR
Japan Tops U.S. Corn Sales; China Leads Wheat Exports
🇺🇸Japan headlined U.S. corn sales last week, which were above average for the time of year despite falling well below top-end expectations. Mexico & Indonesia led soybean sales, activity from China was relatively low. But China led the week's wheat...