Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike to roughly $120 a barrel in early March, the November soybean future peaked at $11.74. The last time soybeans ended a quarter above $12 was in 4Q23, when Brazil produced about 162 million metric tons (MMT). For 2026, most estimates are closer to 180 MMT -- a record. That roughly 10% production increase in just three years is a major headwind for soybean prices, reinforcing my view of $12 as a 2026 ceiling. Flat US production at about 116 MMT over the same time period underscores soybean price-maker status shifting to Brazil. Increasing US biofuel mandates may support prices, while contributing to a glut of crude oil and liquid fuels. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/X5hC1uUHll {BI COMD} #soybeans #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Sacramento 2026 Home Sales Slightly Edge 2025
Closed home sales volume in 2026 is just ahead of 2025 in the Sacramento region so far. Not by much, but any growth feels like a win. I'll have visuals out next week to break down the trend.
Tech Dividend ETF Offers Stable Income and Growth
Income investors, meet your tech solution. $TDIV targets profitable tech giants that pay & grow dividends, offering a smoother ride than pure growth funds. Ideal for long-term income + sector growth. Dividends
Timeless Money Advice: Live Your Rich Life Now
This is a video of me from 17 years ago In this interview, I'm talking about I Will Teach You To Be Rich, the business I still run today I'm not as polished as today. But the message is the same. You...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Smart Money Optimism Sparks Potential SPY Bounce
#SPX: Smart money confidence is optimistic while dumb money is neutral. The Fear & Greed Index continues at Extreme Fear. Green circles highlight increase in smart money confidence and bullish moves that followed. The bounce could have more fuel. $SPY
Investors Flee OpenAI for More Profitable Anthropic
🚨 Investors abandon OpenAI and flock to arch rival Anthropic | OpenAI’s shocking fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic ✅ OpenAI shares are falling out of favour on secondary markets — in some cases nearly impossible to sell —...
Gold’s Weakness Signals Buying Opportunity Amid Secular Uptrend
Gold has been surprisingly weak lately and has not acted in line with what one might expect during a geopolitical shock. My sense is that this is combination of a sentiment reversal among the fast money crowd (which had jumped...
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Start Early: $1 Grows to $73 by Retirement
$1 invested for a 20 year old can turn into $73 by retirement. But don't go in blind Here are 5 must know rules to guide new investors:
March Reality Check: Hedge Funds Raise Billions, Record Cambridge Gift
March delivered a reality check to clients of some of the biggest hedge funds. Kite Lake raised $700m. Taula raised $1.75b despite losses. My week in stories: full table with new names to a record £190 million Cambridge donation by...
Payroll Surge and Falling Unemployment Boost Bull Market
Good sign supporting the bull market U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 178K in March, Beating Expectations as Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
Blue Owl’s Credit Woes Mask Hidden Asset Value
$OWL hit all-time lows today after record redemption requests. The credit business deserves every bit of this. But Blue Owl also has a GP Stakes business and a real assets business that have zero direct connection to software loans or BDC redemptions. Ran...
Dollar's Upside Surprise Effect Fades, Weakness Looms
A few months ago, I wrote about how upside data surprises weren't lifting the Dollar anymore. Today is a case in point. Big upside surprise to payrolls and the Dollar does basically nothing. We're seeing regime change for the Dollar...
ECB's Simkus: Too Early to Judge April Meeting
ECB’s Simkus says it is too early to call the outcome of April’s meeting https://t.co/GyAjrsyZA3 via @mseput https://t.co/uL1RzTuL18
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Global Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Surprise US Payrolls Lift Yields, Hit Emerging Markets
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
Annual Drawdowns Are Inevitable—Embrace Them for Stock Premium
A drawdown of some magnitude happens every year. Expect, prepare for it, and embrace it. This is the reason why you earn a premium for owning stocks. https://t.co/uLbuAmZ29E
China Challenges Iran at UN over Hormuz Closure
China, Europe and why Beijing took a swing at Iran over the Strait of Hormuz Beijing takes a stand at the United Nations at the closure of shipping lanes Despite all the blather about how China benefits from the conflict... https://t.co/dhDbWjo4ip via...
Overstating Charitable Deductions Can Trigger 40% Penalty
If your charitable donation is worth $2 million, you probably shouldn’t try to take a $180 million deduction. Otherwise, as Hancock County Land Acquisitions discovered in Tax Court, you could face a 40% gross valuation misstatement penalty. https://t.co/o1C0zoX0lj
Avoid Shorting Now; Summer Bull Run Ahead
@7he_reason he’s been giving tons of free gems lately Far more than I’ve cared to share with the public He told yall what to do once the Vix fades 25 To those of you that listen and follow… and I’ll see...
U.S. Debt Interest Costs Surge Past $1 Trillion by 2026
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
MercadoLibre Hits Lowest Valuation in Years
This month's long-form research report MercadoLibre: Cheapest In Years $MELI Read it at Emerging Moats (link in bio) https://t.co/BbrTaKu2SW
Retire Early: Diversify Beyond Your 401(k)
If I wanted to retire 10 years earlier, here's exactly what I'd do: Step 1. Stop treating your 401K like it's your only path to retirement.
Equity Futures Slip Ahead of Jobs Data Release
Equity futures a little lower ahead of jobs report... they'll trade until 915am ET https://t.co/x9qe4wyzJv
Mutual Funds Double LIC Returns Over 20 Years
LIC vs. Mutual Fund LIC: - Annual Investment: ₹96,000 - Duration: 20 years - Total Investment: ₹19.20 lakhs - Maturity (25th year): ₹43 lakhs (approx.) - Annual Return: 7.2% (relatively low) Mutual Fund: - Monthly SIP: ₹8,000 (equivalent to ₹96,000/year) - Duration: 20 years - Total Investment: ₹19.20 lakhs - Maturity:...
Europe's Gas Price Surge Makes Hormuz Intervention Urgent
Whatever objections Europe has to helping open up the Strait of Hormuz, it's a matter of urgent self-interest to help sort this situation out. On a similar time scale to 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, European natural gas prices are...
Check Point's Discounted Stock Offers Compelling Cybersecurity Value
Check Point stock trades at a big discount to cybersecurity peers. New analysis argues its elite platform, strong profits, & cloud shift make it a compelling value play. $CHKP Cybersecurity
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Brent Futures Discount Deepens Amid Spot Oil Shortage
The discount on the Brent future expiring in June to the spot Brent oil price is up to 22%. There's acute shortage of oil in the spot market, while futures markets think the war ends soon. This decoupling isn't unprecedented....
Active Allocation Needed: Three Sells, One Buy
I just released a portfolio update. Four moves. Three Sells. One Buy. One strategy. I am positioning for a period where active capital allocation and a strong stomach will be the primary drivers of performance. Read the full breakdown of...
Bond Vigilantes Reprice Yields as Oil Shocks Drive Inflation Outlook
Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide as oil shocks reshape inflation expectations. Global spreads reveal where markets see the biggest shifts ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ntInn7MIg4
Full Hormuz Oil Replacement Unrealistic, 10‑
Ideas Dinner Manhattan: Strait of Hormuz, how to replace 21M bpd oil?? Existing bypass pipelines (Saudi 7M + UAE 1.8M) cover 40-45%. Full replacement? 10–20+ yrs, $40B+, geopolitically brutal, not realistic. Next 5 yrs: expansions might hit 55–65% max. https://t.co/eTeUaAMFgS
Invest Simply: Business Moat, Trustworthy Management, High‑Return Reinvestment
Most investors make things too complicated. Chuck Akre simplified it down to just three things: 1️⃣ The Business: High ROE and a "moat" you can see from space. 2️⃣ The Management: Integrity + Skill. They treat you like a partner, not a...
US Energy Shock Hits Prices; Asia Faces Real Shortages
Remember, the energy shock in the US is primarily about price. Elsewhere in much of the world, quantity is also a real concern. Indeed, you only need to look at the ongoing policy and household/corporate adaptations in an increasing number of...
Spot Oil Outpaces Futures as War‑end Expectations Rise
Lots of people say the disconnect between spot and futures prices in oil means markets are broken. No! Spot Brent at $140 (white) is above the June future (yellow) because markets think the war ends soon and tanker traffic comes...
Escalation Risks Dampen Risk‑Taking, US Jobs Keep Dollar Flat
Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges: The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind...
True Quality Takes Decades, Not One-Year Gains
Most investors definition of a quality business or quality management has nothing to do with quality - it’s simply the stock they own that is up the most in the last 12-months. Quality is a label that can only be earned...
Bond Volatility Drives Global Cross‑asset Market Turbulence
If the PPT wants/needs to manipulate the US Equity Futures, that's fine - we know how that ends (gravity always wins) The real problem is Bond Market Vol and there's no change to that TRENDING Breakout Pretty much every position, everywhere,...
Free Guide Reveals 6 Precise Fibonacci Pattern Types
Here’s a link below to a FREE Fibonacci Trading Strategy Guide (ebook): 📈📊📉 Learn the 6 Fibonacci Pattern Types that Create the Most Precise Price Levels, Targets, and Reversal Zones for traders. Click here: ⬇️ https://t.co/62UAf4L9jv Discover the 5 types that aren't...
Okeanis Eco Tankers: Geopolitical
Okeanis Eco Tankers ($OET) is now a geopolitical play. Strong fleet & finances, but its boom hinges on Red Sea disruptions extending voyages. A top-tier bet on volatile trade routes. shipping
Retail Diesel up Slightly While Wholesale Prices Decline
Despite the surge in oil prices on Thursday, retail diesel only went up $.06/gallon overnight to $5.48/gallon. This will cost truckers $.01/mile more for fuel. Interestingly, the rack price (wholesale price for diesel) has actually dropped over the past ten...
UK Wealthy Rush to Move Assets Before Tax Deadline
The UK’s rich race to shift their wealth before inheritance tax deadline https://t.co/Oy2bk49vd3 via @BenStupples @KatiaPorzo https://t.co/Fe9T2ReLeA
Gasoline Stays Cheap While Oil Shock Fuels Politics
In any oil shock, the most politically charged part of the barrel is gasoline. Ironically in this crisis, gasoline is the least affected. (That doesn’t reduce the economic impact of sky high oil prices via diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil....
Hedge Funds Dump Global Stocks at 13‑Year High
"Hedge funds sold global stocks at the fastest pace in 13 years in March ... The pace of selling was the second-largest since [Goldman] started collecting the data in 2011." Goldman Sachs via BBG
Middle East War Will Raise Your Milk Price
The milk in your fridge this week may cost more next month. Not because of the dairy farm. Because of a war in the Middle East that nobody told you would reach this far.
Traders Increase Bets on UK Rate Hikes This Year
Traders added to wagers that UK interest rates will rise this year https://t.co/MMX4qogHde via @highisland @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/2awWhutl3G
Global Oil Surge Drives Pakistan's Rising Petrol Prices
Not sure why people are criticizing the government so much over the petrol price, but the truth is that petrol prices haven’t just increased in Pakistan—they’ve risen globally. Prices in the international market have gone from around $65 to $120,...
Copper Turns Macro Hedge, Volatility Outpaces Fundamentals
Copper is increasingly trading like a macro hedge, raising volatility far beyond what near-term fundamentals imply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/copper-as-macro-hedge-is-rewriting.html