Iran Conflict Could Actually Push Oil Prices Down
The war in Iran will lower energy prices By Peter Navarro "Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf, much of it through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. When markets price crude oil, they must account for the risk that conflict, sabotage and terrorism will interrupt these flows." https://t.co/8geCF8WhYY
Ringgit Leads Asian Currencies Amid Oil‑Price Surge
So far ringgit is doing well, but the longer oil supply is affected, region and Msia will be seriously affected. Ringgit performance; •up against most currencies since US war on Iran started. •seen as least impacted or net beneficiary of...
Nike Shares Slide Ten Days Straight
Nike $NKE stock has now closed lower for the last 10 trading days in a row
SPX Gaps Lower, Bullish Rally Needed to Halt Decline
$SPX closed below the Dec low and today's gap, unlike others recently, wasn't closed during the day. This isn't fatal yet (the Jan 20 one [dashed line] wasn't closed until the following day) but the bullish forces need to pull...
Iran's Gains Spark Higher Oil, Global Economic Risks
Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous 💫Odd Man Out 💫Confirmed Bear 💫Higher Oil, Higher Dollar 💫Higher Oil, Higher Yields 💫Higher Oil, Higher USDJPY 💫Higher Oil, Higher Inflation Expectations 💫Higher Oil, Lower AI Investment 💫Higher Oil, Lower Markets https://t.co/WEe7RNmgRh
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
Current ES_F
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.
Oil Shock Upends Markets; Fed Cut No Longer Expected
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
US Licenses Russian Oil Sales Amid Iran War Profits
NEW: US Treasury issued a general license for the delivery and sale of Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 12. Moscow continues to be the single largest beneficiary of the Iran War. https://t.co/oVlT1gzuuN
Shorts, Not Longs, Control COMEX Silver Deliveries
Silver: The truth about recent Deliveries........ only talking COMEX Guys are posting Bullish comments here regarding Silver deliveries, and folks wanting to take position of the Metal. I wonder if they understand the longs are not in control of the delivery...
Oil, Dollar Index, and Emerging Market Retest Strategies
This was a lot of fun. Check out my poolside chat with @stephenweitzel from yesterday We talk about the action in crude oil and energy, the intermarket implications of a big level for the US dollar index, and how to play...
Lennar's Margins Hit 2009 Low Amid Aggressive Incentives
Lennar—America's second largest homebuilder—gross margins fall to the lowest levels since 2009 Among giant public homebuilders, Lennar has been the most aggressive in using affordability adjustments/incentives to maintain volumes/take market share @ResidentialClub research
CF Industries Leads SPX, Bet on 2026 Food Prices
CF Industries $CF was the strongest outperformer today within $SPX and it continues to be right to favor Agriculture & food prices in 2026 @IBDinvestors @marketsurge I added one of its competitors to UPTICKS for my early March addition and while...
Size Positions by Risk, Quality, Not Just Upside
Position sizing is more art than science. I don't just size based on upside potential. I think about business quality, how bad things could get if I'm wrong, and how likely the thesis is to play out. The upside matters,...
Switching to Cost Plus Drugs Saves $800 Annually
My wife just moved a prescription to @mcuban @costplusdrugs and will save $800 a year over CVS/Target. That’s real money.
U.S. Housing Bubble Frozen, Equity at Risk
The U.S. housing market isn’t slowing down, it’s frozen. Homes are massively overpriced, and when prices finally fall, millions of homeowners could lose their equity and banks will be stuck with bad mortgages. This is exactly what happens when decades...
US Gas Prices Surge 20% in Two Weeks, 30‑year High
Gas prices in the US are up over 20% in the past two weeks (from $2.98/gallon to $3.59/gallon). That's the biggest two-week spike that we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/satpQMppWO
Fed May Cut Rates If Energy Prices Trigger Recession
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
Everything Plummets: Crypto Crashes Harder than Stocks
% Below All-Time High Chevron: 0% S&P 500: -5% Gold: -9% Apple: -11% Google: -13% Nvidia: -14% Amazon: -19% Meta: -20% Tesla: -21% Palantir: -26% Microsoft: -27% Netflix: -30% Bitcoin: -44% Ethereum: -58% MicroStrategy: -75% Fartcoin: -94% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
US Stock Market $1 Trillion Cheaper—Rethink Your Strategy
CHANGE your investing mindset: 🇺🇸 The US stock market nearly $1 trillion less expensive today.
Brazil Fears Tighter China Soybean Checks Amid Low Imports
🇧🇷Brazilian trade groups are concerned with the tightening of soybean inspections to China, potentially hampering the top exporters' shipments. Doesn't seem like great timing for China after its Jan-Feb imports hit 7-year lows. Now, Chinese meal futures have hit contract highs....
Dollar Index Hits Three‑month High as Rate‑cut Bets Shrink
The $DXY Dollar Index has advanced to close at a three-month high while also clearing some channel and Fib resistance on the close. Notably, the market's FOMC rate expectations for 2026 have also extended their shift, now only pricing in...
Iran Keeps Flooding Strait of Hormuz with Oil
VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines. Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil,...
McClellan Oscillator Signals Imminent Stock Market Bottom
Here's an indicator which points to an imminent low for stocks. The $SPX McClellan oscillator closed at -95 and is extremely oversold. It's more oversold now than it was at last April's low when it bottomed at -87. https://t.co/pICqvPPG02
Market Predicts AAA US Gas Price Hitting $4 by Month‑end
The market thinks the AAA average US gas price will tag $4 by the end of the month $UGA $RB_F @kalshi https://t.co/kwTVTrGRRG https://t.co/L7SpkLzJR4
Near‑term Crude Cheap, 12‑month Forward Near Peak
While crude for next month delivery is still well below the Monday highs, crude for delivery in 12 months is almost back to its recent peak https://t.co/SGyTj8k9S6
S&P 500 Sheds $800B, Down $2.5T Monthly
MARKET RECAP 📉 What a day, the S&P 500 lost over $800 BILLION in market cap today. The index is now down 4% in a month, losing $2.5 TRILLION 😳 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Adobe's Earnings Ignore AI's Disruptive Impact
$ADBE numbers and guide doesn’t seem to care at all how disruptive AI is. 🙃
MELI Plunges 35% Despite Booming Growth Metrics
MELI is down 🔻35% from its 52-week high, meanwhile: • 25+ quarter of >30% revenue growth • 83 million unique active buyers (+24%) • Total payment volume of $83B (+42%) And now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
Iranian Incentives Mirror Bessent’s Stated Oil Price
in fairness this is the only correct answer, if Bessent says "$xyz" then the Iranians have every incentive to act in a manner that drives oil prices to "$xyz"
S&P Dips Below Dec Low: Historically Weak Returns
The S&P 500 just closed beneath the December low in the Q1. 38 times this happened and 38 times it didn't. When it breaks (like this year) the avg full yr return is 0.2% and up only 50% of time versus 18.9%...
S&P 500 Dips Below 170‑day Average, First Since May
The S&P 500 closed below its 170-day moving average for the first time since May.
Equal-Weight Materials Eye Breakout at Historic Highs
Equal-Weight Materials backtesting the breakout from the 2022 & 2024 highs. That level mattered then, matters now. $RSPM $XLB https://t.co/4V8doWcsR4
S&P
$SPX - We are getting a lower low after all. Going back to the April low, we've had a ~80 trading day cycle. Due to many holidays in this cycle, I expect this cycle to be shorter in trading days...
S&P 500 Hits Year’s Worst Close, Down 4.5%
S&P 500's worst close of the year... lowest since late November -4.5% from the January record high https://t.co/kASRYfc9MR
Oil Price Expected to Peak Within Six Weeks, Markets Shift
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
AUDUSD Fails 2023 High Breakout, Slides 1.6%
Failed breakout to clear the 2023 high in $AUDUSD Now off more than 1.6% off the high. Support now 7037 with 6913/43 still key. Resistance 7158 with 7208/14 critical #AUDUSD Daily Chart https://t.co/Cui4nVGM5q
XHB Endures Sharpest 9‑Day Drop Since 2022
Homebuilders $XHB worst 9-day selloff since June 2022 -13% since the first of the month. The housing market sucks. @stockcharts https://t.co/wJDyxPUMdv
Upcoming $LE Stub Valuation Offers Pre‑Earnings Tender Opportunity
What's the Land's End $LE stub worth? I guess we'll know next week. If there's any interest I'll write it up, still an opportunity to enter & tender ahead of next Thursday's earnings (where I expect a clean PF bridge...
Durable Moves Allow Either Repression or Disinflation, Not Both
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
Our Portfolios Cheapened, Outperformed as Market Overvalued
"We’ve been operating in what we see as an anomalous market environment for the past two years; specifically, the momentum-driven U.S. market has been one of the most extreme in history. [This] has also created compelling company-specific opportunities moving forward. [O]ur portfolios’...
SPX Extends 7-Day Run Below Trading Box
$SPX has traded below the latest trading box for 7 straight days. Only closed below it twice. Today would be the 3rd. https://t.co/gYeIND2TmK
Quarter of US Stocks Hit 52‑week Highs Today
There's actually a pretty decent list of S&P 500 52wk highs... bunch of food/ag, chemicals, refiners @stockcharts 1-in-4ish US stocks are up today https://t.co/ebgPXxwKyU
Cramer Declares Unwavering Bullish Stance on Oil
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
Rate‑Hike Pricing Hits S&P, Small‑Caps
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
President Urges Rare Intermeeting Rate Cut Before Scheduled Decision
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Small Investors Should Use Tax Wrappers for Yext Tender
$YEXT spread for an odd lot tender at low end of Dutch Auction range is now ~$50 on ~$520 deployed for ~10 day capital lock-up. This is the stuff small investors should locate within tax wrappers to maximize after tax...
Cut Hidden Bill Costs, Not Just Subscriptions
Just because it's an essential doesn't mean you should overpay for it. Most people look to their subscriptions as the first thing to go when they need to cut back, and they don't even notice the bills that are actually...
Brent Breaches $100, First Time in 3½ Years
Brent closes the day above $100 a barrel for the first time in three and a half years. Note: during the 2022 crisis, Brent settled above triple-digit level for 110 days. So far in 2026, just one day.