Buy‑and‑hold Global Index Outperforms Most Strategies over Life
When it's all said and done - if we're being totally honest - by the time one reaches a ripe old age, most stock investors will earn more money in a buy-and-hold total global equity index portfolio than doing anything else. A few non-believers will get lucky; most will not.
SOX's 42% Surge Mirrors Rare Post‑Bear Rallies
$SOX(semiconductors) rallied 42% in the last 17 trading days. This happened only twice in its history: On April 30, 2001, after 14 months of bear market. On November 1, 2002, at the beginning of a new bull market, and after 31 months...
Tesla AI Strategy and Q1 Highlights on BBC
Great to be on @BBCWorld with @BenThompsonTV discussing Tesla’s AI Path and the 1Q takeaways 🎯🍿🐂📺 @BBCBreaking @BBCNews https://t.co/mdJQBGacLU
Sanofi Reports Strong Sales Amid Growing R&D Pressure
Sanofi posts upbeat sales as R&D pressure builds https://t.co/4WUccjXY5D by Kristin Jensen $SNY + 2% $REGN
Tim Cook Turns Apple Into Ireland’s Top Taxpayer
Tim Cook also did wonders for Ireland and the Irish fisc ... Apple is almost certainly now the largest Irish tax payer and its 2014 decision to put on a Green Jersey set out a tax model that a lot of other...
True Parental Love Means Health and Financial Security
Saying you will die for your kids is performative. If you actually love your kids, you will: ➡️ Stay healthy so you can be with them longer ➡️ Invest your money so they don’t have to support you ➡️ Save and invest...
Monday Double Front-End Auctions Pressure
King Lear's Truth Social musings may be obscuring it a bit, but double front-end auctions on Monday weighing on 2s and 5s
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
Starlink Posted $4.4B Profit on $11.4B Revenue
Starlink last year: $4.4 billion in operating profit and $11.4 billion in revenue, according to @Reuters review of pending S-1 https://t.co/e9KFllMATS
SME Leaders Show Strong Growth, Lower Valuations
Two popular SME recent results - 1. Prizor Viztech : Revenue 105.93 Cr vs 40.06 Cr (+164.42% YoY) PAT 14.84 Cr vs 5.87 Cr (+152.83% YoY) PE down from ~48x to ~29x post results Margins up Sector Tailwinds Management beats guidance 2. Rajesh Power : Revenue 990 Cr vs...
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
TXN Leads as Prime Example of SMB Money Trade
$TXN #1 today is a great example of the SMB "The Money Trade" (google it) https://t.co/Q19DB7qFKr
JOJO Leverages Utilities Signals for Credit Rotation
Advisors looking for differentiation in fixed income: $JOJO uses utilities sector signals to rotate between risk-on and risk-off credit. Systematic, transparent, and timely. https://t.co/vNSFE0Fce0
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
RMS Margins Boost May Not Return for Decades
Besides being a multiple expansion story, and besides compounding revenues at a low teens rate for years, $RMS' stock has largely also been a margins expansion story, which is unlikely to repeat over the next 15-20 years.
Current Housing Crisis Far Worse Than 2008 Stats
There are so many flippant comparisons to 2008 in today's housing market, but what do the stats show? I'm not sugarcoating the glaring affordability problem today. I just think sometimes people casually compare without really looking at the stats. More...
RDR SELL Technique Predicts Short‑term Car Stock Moves
No need to pick Tops-- My RDR SELL technique calculates it and has worked for Decades (at least for my community) Perfect two day short in $car for some https://t.co/DV2FMamOs7
Shorted $CAR at Open, Targeting $215 Close
Shorted $CAR immediately at the open today after missing all of yesterday. I didn't want to short later in the day yesterday, but it was clear by EOD that it was broken. Thinking we close at around $215 (July 2025...
China’s New Supply‑Chain Rules Pose Risk to US Companies
AFP: China’s new supply chain regulations could be a “concern” for US firms, @AmCham_China warned. The regulations, released April 7, allow authorities to take measures against foreign companies that “harm China’s industrial and supply chain security.” https://t.co/bmnFKekxT7
Secular Bull Markets Can Endure Far Longer than Expected
Wild chart on Animal Spirits this week with @michaelbatnick and @awealthofcs. I'm more of a 'this secular bull started in 2013 on the beakout' guy, but this hammers home how these secular bulls can last much longer than most could ever...
Smart Money Shifts to Growth Phases in Gurgaon
Where is smart money moving in Gurgaon? This chart maps capital flow across micro-markets (2010–2030). How to read it: X-axis = Market Cycle Progression (1 → 12) • Early → Growth → Peak → Late • It’s a cycle stage, not calendar time Y-axis = Capital Inflow Intensity...
Copper's Bullish Surge: Few Portfolios Ready to Profit
Quite the bullish outlook for copper from @FrankCappelleri in his note yesterday. Should this happen, how many portfolios are built to benefit from it you think? I'm guessing not many. https://t.co/3Hio1we0O0
XLF Rallies to 200‑day MA; Watch for Rollover
$XLF Daily. ETF for big banks, many of which reported earnings. Rally up to 200-day m.a. & confluence of moving averages. Private credit had their bounce too. Watch for rollovers https://t.co/3hGFhsxWIf
QTWO Undervalued vs Peers; Quebec Spodumene Near Unicorn
Excellent chart @zempheth which I've modified slightly to highlight your very correct pointing out the @Q2Metals -Cisco valuation (USD 420M) comp to Azure/Andover which was bought for USD 1.1B+ when spodumene prices were half what they are today. With Elevra proving...
Semis Enjoy Record 17‑day Green Streak
It is green right now, which would be a record shattering 17 days in a row higher for semis. That is quite the streak. Frank the Tank is smiling at this type of streak. https://t.co/Dd3L75talj
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
Maryland's $48.5M Land Purchase Signals Suburban CRE Shift
Maryland paid $48.5M for 229 acres between Baltimore and D.C. — and no private developer stepped up first. When the state becomes the buyer of last resort on a large suburban asset, that’s a signal worth understanding. What’s your read...
Warner Bros Shareholders Approve $111B Paramount Takeover Despite Backlash
News: Warner Bros. shareholders overwhelmingly approve controversial $111-billion Paramount takeover amid growing opposition in Hollywood and beyond. https://t.co/iHnN5ov2ML
Mild Winter Averted Gas Price Spike Amid Hormuz Closure
Northern hemisphere’s mild winter averted worse gas crisis Global gas prices would have surged much higher as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz if last winter had not been among the warmest on record across the northern...
New Catalyst Fuels Bullish Confidence in $TMDX
I didn't need another reason to be bullish on $TMDX but they just gave me one 😎
Warner Discovery Shareholders Overwhelmingly Back Paramount Merger
Warner Discovery stockholders overwhelmingly approve sale to Paramount, WBD says. "Based on the preliminary vote count from today's Special Meeting, WBD stockholders voted overwhelmingly to approve the adoption of the merger agreement with Paramount."
Andurand's 52% April Loss Highlights Ceasefire Risk
*ANDURAND LOST 52% IN APRIL FIRST HALF AS CEASEFIRE HURT OIL BET Are people paying 20% performance for Pierre Andurand to be max levered long oil always? It seems like it
TI Surges 15% on Earnings After Heavy Call Buying
Texas Instruments (TXN) 500 January $340 calls bought $14.20 to $14.25 as it explodes 15% on earnings following big call buys all week in it
Reevaluate Roth vs Traditional 401(k) After Income Shifts
You need to adjust Roth vs Traditional 401k based on life changes. Say you were doing Roth, but your company promoted you fast, or your spouse started a job, or you got a side hustle. You should adjust and analyze Roth vs...
Prolonged Oil Price Spikes Extend Equity Market Correction
With crude oil prices driving equities right now, let’s take a look at two examples of oil shocks. The 1990 Gulf War took oil prices from $41 to $100 (in today’s dollars) was short-lived and caused only a brief 19% drawdown...
Short Covering Fuels Equity Melt‑up as Call/Put Ratio Spikes
The equity melt-up of the past two weeks was surely driven (in part) by short covering. The call/put ratio below has now surged from 1.02 to 1.50. https://t.co/jGi0QAJW3f
Buy the Dip Returns: Target MU, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL
📺 BUY THE DIP IS BACK — SOME STRONG NAMES TO CONSIDER In a strong uptrend, pullbacks are once again becoming opportunities as leaders hold key levels and momentum remains intact. Some strong names to consider: – $MU is the focus after...
Future Default and Severity Rates Drive Private Credit Opportunity
Actually want matters is both the future default rate AND severity rate. Sometimes defaults fault in a greater recovery as when long dated fully collateralized bonds default and the maturity date advances to the day it is restructured.
AI Winners Accelerate Revenue, Losers Cut Guidance
$NOW dragging down other tech stocks like Rubrik, Crowdstrike, Snowflake, etc. means investors haven't yet grasped how this works. There are winners and there are losers of AI. Those decelerating/cutting revenue guidance - losers. Those accelerating revenue YoY - winners. Easier...
Low Crude Prices Persist Amid Historic Supply Shock
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history https://t.co/1E2OX8hn8t
FCFS Shines Again as Pawn Shops Boom
FCFS posted great numbers yet again, a favorite small cap financial for years now Pawn Shops thriving
How Global Imbalances Ripple Across Nations
Adam Tooze has a very good new Substack article on global imbalances. I discuss below where I (mostly) agree and disagree (more in emphasis than in substance), focusing especially on how imbalances are transmitted from country to country. @adam_tooze https://t.co/n6KhuJ5NMS
S&P Hits 103 Highs; Inequality Defies Policy
The $SPX has made 103 all-time highs since the Fed started shrinking the balance sheet. If inequality increases with QE and low policy rates and also increases with QT and high policy rates, maybe inequality is not about monetary policy. Warsh knows...
Hormuz Turns Trade Weaponization Frontline, Threatening Maritime Security
Hormuz becomes frontline in ‘weaponisation of trade’. Is there currently maritime security and safety? https://t.co/NoAhibd8ud
2026 Market Breadth Stays Calm, No Major Moves
2026 has yet to see any major Advance or Decline moves as measured by 10:1 days. All considered, markets have remained fairly calm from a broad breadth perspective. https://t.co/V1JoXj6fXz
Buy Tesla April 24 385/375 Put Spread for Credit
$TSLA "Trade Idea 1: Buy the April 24 Expiry 385/375-372.50 1×2 Put Spread for a 5 cent credit." sell to close a 385/375 put spread on any strngth in stock. Let IV fall then can buy remaining put or...
LPs Prefer Lending at 12%, Not Borrowing
If you're considering a real estate strategy that would require you to use high octane bridge debt, consider this: Some potential LPs are likely to give you a version of the following feedback: "We don't *borrow* at 12%; we *lend* at 12%"
Free IBM Put Spread: Sell, Wait IV Drop, Roll
$IBM "Trade Idea 1: Buy the April 24 Expiry 250/242.50 1×2 Put Spread for free." sell to close a 250/242.50 put spread near $7.50, let IV fall then will need to roll remaining put down and out.
Alliance
A 33-year-old global high-yield fund. 8% NAV discount — near the widest since 2022. 7.5% yield collected while you wait for the discount to compress. Is AllianceBernstein's AWF the unloved global income play right now? https://t.co/5wNRfc4Lcg
S&P 500 Hits Highest 20‑Day MA Gap Since 2000
A chart from Sunday's Thrasher Analytics note... The S&P 500 was 6.5% above its 20-day MA, the highest it's been above the short-term average since March 2000 when filtered for periods within 1% of a 52-week high, meaning not within a...