Sell May 22 205/232.50 Strangle for $2 Credit
$LOW "Trade Idea 4: Sell the May 22 Expiry 205/232.50 Strangle for a $2.00 credit." looks to expire, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch.
Rally Expected to Reverse; Raising Cash for Put Protection
Current rally likely to roll over in a few weeks - We're raising cash and plan to buy put options to protect the portfolio from late Q2/early Q3 turbulence. https://t.co/8SXZbDeaRK
No‑headline US‑China Summit Reveals Bleak Outlook for US
My latest @opinion column looks at what last week's "no headline" US-China summit told us about the bilateral relationship, and little of it is good for the US side: https://t.co/RyxTa0KLuu (🎁) https://t.co/VGS33PAZL2
Tesla Shows Bullish Bottom Tail, Signaling Buying Opportunity
$tsla gave a nice bottom tail yesterday to add against - trim and trial into this gap up. https://t.co/2dx7Hwvhzc
Verra Mobility: Solid Growth, Buy‑the‑Dip at 10x EBITDA
Verra Mobility (VRRM) sold off after losing a $133M NY tolling contract—but the core biz is still solid. 10%+ growth, 95% retention, and now trading at ~10x EBITDA. A quality buy-the-dip setup. 📉🧠 ValueInvesting
Simplify: Just 1‑3 ETFs for Solid Investing
You don't need 17 ETFs Most need - 1 core US stock ETF - 1 international ETF if you want global exposure - 1-2 growth or dividend funds depending on their plan This goal isn't to build a complicated portfolio It's to build one that's easy...
NVDA Earnings: Crowded Upside, Use Call Flies
$NVDA earnings: ~5.2% implied move down from ~6.5% The main features are: 1) IV is high - even relative to prior earnings 2) Call skews = 100 %'ile, Put skews = 0% Expecting big upside seems like a very crowded trade. We like call flies...
Speculators Hold Deepest Short Positions in US Futures Since April 2023
The latest CoT data shows speculators are short equity futures across the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 (most net short since Apr'23), S&P 400, and Russell 2000. via Bespoke
ECB’s Wunsch: June Rate Hike Likely if War Persists
ECB’s Wunsch sees June hike quite likely if war doesn’t end https://t.co/njOtIFl80F via @weberalexander @flacqua https://t.co/9gn4c9lOxU
Copper Bounces Off Low-End of Risk Range Signal
Dr. Copper with the textbook bounce off the LRR (low-end of Risk Range™ Signal) https://t.co/85eFZznZTL
7155 Marks Next Major Support If
If 7363 goes (basis June SP futures), 7155 is the downside equivalent of the next "high volume node". https://t.co/ojUhAUjZ2r
TMDX Poised for Massive Organ Transport Growth by 2032
I spent some quality time today with the $TMDX team at their HQ in Andover, MA. I’ll share some deeper thoughts over the next few days including my bear case, base case, bull case and super bull case for the...
Rule‑Based Bots Avoid Emotional Second‑Guessing in Trades
My trading bot followed the exact market structure, confirmation, and risk management rules I programmed into it even though I hesitated on the setup. That’s the difference between emotional trading and rule based trading. Most traders second guess good setups because...
Massive Jan 2027 Put Orders Signal Unusual Market Strategy
There was a very unusual trend in Options Flow today with size January 2027 put "stupids" in several names like $BKNG, $UBER, $INTU $LYFT $QCOM $DELL $PATH $NTAP $HUBS Interested to see if make it to OI, maybe some kind...
Zero‑rate Era Produced Massive Bond Issuance Worldwide
Where are they now? Globally, bonds issued when interest rates were near ZERO, 2015–2021, though total global long-term fixed-income issuance (per SIFMA) was higher (~$158 trillion cumulatively). - Grok https://t.co/XCQZy1Rgxn
SKO.AX Struggles as Revenue Slows, Costs Remain High
$SKO.AX no idea what consensus expectations are, but at a very basic level it will be hard for any software name to rally in this environment when revenue growth is decelerating sharply and you are forecasting opex growth to remain...
Value Emerges When Every Dollar Beats Cost of Capital
Michael Mauboussin on the One Dollar Test "A company creates value when one dollar invested in the business is worth more than one dollar in the market. This happens when the firm is able to make investments that generate a return...
Bond Market Tests New Fed Chair with 2007‑High Yields
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.197% today — the highest since July 2007. Kevin Warsh gets sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday. That's not a coincidence. The bond market is testing him before he gets the keys. 🧵
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 20‑Year High on Inflation
Bloomberg: "Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose to the highest level in almost two decades as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates." #economy #markets #bonds
Top S&P Decile Falls, Bottom Rises in Swift Reversal
As of mid-day, the decile of S&P 500 stocks that had done best y/y through the 5/14 market high was down 8% since then, while the decile of the worst performers y/y were up 7.1%! Saw a bit of a...
Top Technical Idea Today: Intel Stock Note Appreciated
i appreciate receiving notes like this. it was my #1 technical idea today. $INTC https://t.co/0tNRu72T5k
S&P Breaks 10‑Day Trend, Targets 7300
$SPX - Closed below the 10 day MA after 34 consecutive trading days above it. Therefore, the odds favor further downside to the 20 day MA that will be around 7300 tomorrow. https://t.co/WnNLq9oqnW
US Agg Forward Yield Peaks at 8.
Janney ISG's Real Yields model is noting the highest 12m forward return for the US Agg since Jan 2025: 8.6% (+/-1sd 7.8 - 9.3%) https://t.co/bNbKSL4Mad
Broad Market Breadth Turns Negative Across All Segments
S&P 500 Equal Weight US stock market ex-SPX MidCap 400 SmallCap 600 Russell 1000 EW Russell 2000 Microcaps International Stocks International small caps All negative in the last month https://t.co/rSD4f9RSsr
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 2007 High, Stocks Uncertain
US 30-year Treasury yields just tapped their highest levels since July 2007. Not the best backdrop for stocks at highs, but rising rates don't always mean a correction either... $US30Y $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/xKBydmikrV
Nvidia's Future Lies in AI Services, Not Chips
$NVDA is no longer a chip company. It's selling dependency. What I'm watching tomorrow after the bell: → Q2 guide vs $86B. That's the number that moves the tape, not the Q1 print → Margin holds at 75% as Rubin ramps →...
Crocs: $4.7B Cash‑flow Machine, Not Just a Fad
Day 28 of 30: How $CROX Crocs actually makes money Most people think they just sell a passing fad of ugly foam clogs They don't...they are quietly running a $4.7 billion cash-flow machine with some of the best profit margins in apparel Here...
Hold Off on Corvus Until Phase 2 Confirms Promise
Market is pricing Corvus Pharma’s AD success way too early. Phase 1/2 data is promising but small — big JAK inhibitor competition and cash burn risks remain. Wait for Phase 2 readouts before buying the hype. Biotech
VWAP Bands Reveal Market Balance, Sharpen Trade Entries
Most traders use VWAP completely wrong. VWAP isn’t just support and resistance. The deviation bands show you whether the market is balanced… or in true price discovery. Once you understand that, your entries become far more precise. Comment BANDS and I’ll show you how...
USD/CHF Breakout Hits First Major Resistance
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Breakout Faces First Major Hurdle https://t.co/Z8ntLPDeM6 $USDCHF Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/6nV1PEQVkf
Join Monastery Accelerator: $2M Funding for AI Unicorn
Go join Monastery accelerator with our friends @cyberfund $2m uncapped note, 12 week program, let's see if we can get the 1 person AI-assisted unicorn
Trade the Spike: Exit Below Daily Close
Sure. Attached is the D1 ES chart. The HTF thesis is simple, buyers get caught and stops get run. Wait for a daily close back below the spike high, offer the retest of that high if it remains naked on...
BoJ Selling Treasuries to Fund Yen Support?
Is the Bank of Japan selling treasuries to use the capital to support the Yen?
Reduced Tail‑Risk Hedge as Theta Burn Accelerates
I reduced tail risk hedge as theta burn will accelerate. Still enough just in case, but I doubt it b/c the market is warmonger and down not due to fears of war but due to no new war, for those...
Small‑cap Risk Gauge Slides 4.5% From Three‑year High
While there is a pullback in the major US indices, there is a more intense retreat in some of the more concentrated measures of risk appetite. The Russell 2000 - Dow ratio is down approximately -4.5% from its three-year peak...
Hormuz Closure Triggers 2026 Oil Shock
[CHARTBOOK] Strait of Hormuz closure and the oil shock of 2026 - slides for a presentation to the British Institute of Energy Economics: https://t.co/yL3UeeaHjW https://t.co/HWXdNxr2vB
PLTR Flips From Weakest to Strongest Amid Pullback
Well of course. $PLTR was the weakest of the bunch during this minor pullback, but since the pullback started, it has been the strongest of the bunch. You short weakness or do you fade short-term extremes?
IWM Below Jan High, Bull Trap Looms
$IWM Daily. Small cap dipping below $271.60, the prior highs from January. Failure to reclaim this spot by bulls opens door to the recent breakout being a major bull trap. https://t.co/qqVz2SeDuC
Russell 2000 Tests Late‑April Pivot After 6% Drop
Russell 2000 down 3 days in a row, 6% from highs and testing that late April pivot. Let's see if we can keep this pullback "innocent" by holding around here. $IWM https://t.co/KUuIj6sV3T
S&P Near Low, Sector ETFs Climb, SMIDs Lag
S&P 500 near the LoD, but most sector ETFs are up... value holding up fine... but not US SMIDs & Ex-US https://t.co/XDSeIq8kX4
High‑Beta Momentum Slides 6.5% Today
CHART OF THE DAY: High Beta Momentum Down -6.5% On The Day https://t.co/kmY1WhmnJB via @hedgeye
30‑Year to Overnight Rate Spread Matches Historical Average
I know peeps love to doom and gloom about it but nothing that unusual about the current rate structure. Here the spread of 30s to overnight rates and its long run average. https://t.co/Tp7ouJMdsl
Buy May 22 300/292.5 Put Spread, Target $7.50
$HD "Trade Idea 1: Buy the May 22 Expiry 300/292.50 1×2 Put Spread for 20 cents.' sell to close a 300/292.50 put spread near $7.50 or watch to max Friday, let IV fall then can buy to close remaining put...
Oil Inventories May Hit Bottom by Early August
Col. Doug Macgregor on the upcoming oil inventory shortages: “I think we're going to probably reach the bottom of the oil tank at the end of July, beginning of August.” STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/7EcASTro86
Rate Hike Hits 30‑yr Treasury Harder than AGG
A 1% rate rise implies a 10.7% annual loss on the 30yr Treasury bond. $TLT $AGG would lose 1.2% These are much softer losses, given higher starting yields, compared to 4-6 years ago. https://t.co/a2m9WEhBuj
Simple Habits Automate $100K Wealth
Many think $100,000 invested is impossible. Then they realize it comes down to mostly boring habits. Automating investing Avoiding lifestyle creep Increasing income Buying simple index funds Once you build the machine, it really starts helping you.
Most New 2x ETFs Shut Down Within a Year
A slew of baby 2x ETFs closed in April, most under one year old incl $LMBO and $REKT. They can tell early that no one cares so they just pull them. Still tho, the closures are dwarfed by the dozens...
Fed Talks, Weak Tech, Housing Data Drive Market Caution
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – May 19, 2026 🚨 A lighter economic calendar today, but traders still have plenty to watch with Fed speakers, housing data, and tech weakness in focus 👀 📊 Economic Events: 🎤 Fed’s Waller speaks at 9AM 🏠 Pending Home...
Juneteenth Moves VIX Expiration to Today
PSA This AM is VIX expiration. Normally it’s on Wednesday, but the Juneteenth holiday shifted VIX exp to today. VIX expiration is set 30 days before the next SPX OPEX.
Investors Forecast Oil at $85 by 2026, 39% Rise
"On oil prices…FMS investors expect oil to trade at $85/bbl (on a weighted-average basis) by end '26 (vs $84/bbl a month ago); this would be a 39% increase from $61/bbl Brent at the start of 2026. 26% of investors expect...