BOJ May Ease QT Amid Rising JGB Yields
Macro: BOJ may temper QT as JGB selloff lifts yields and stresses fiscal funding. BOJ holds ~49% of JGBs; June rate risk raises volatility. Trade: shorten JGB duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Buffett Says Pick an Index, Not Individual Stocks
Warren Buffett Advice: You Don’t Have To Pick The Right Stock, Just Pick This Index And You’ll Build Wealth In The Long Term https://t.co/yuhMZHyS7V
Low VIX Futures Volatility Signals Overbought, Potential Bearish Turn
"In the graph below, the 20-day Historical Volatilities of the various $VIX futures contracts have remained at extremely low levels for a couple of weeks. That is a very overbought condition and can prove to be quite bearish when those...
China Deals Spark Rally in US Ag Stocks, Commodities
China Agreements Lift Agriculture Stocks and Commodities—Investor optimism that China will start buying more U.S. corn, pork, beef and poultry sent shares in agricultural companies and commodities futures higher on Monday. @PatThomas1318 https://t.co/2WdunRyqoX
Lower Short Rates Could Steepen Curve; TIPS Safest
I suspect that any reduction in short rates would serve to exacerbate this weakness. Yield curve would simply steepen further. TIPS may be the only safe haven here.
Dip Buyers Trigger Bullish Reversal Near 7,360 Zone
SPX: Dip buyers jumped in close to the 7,360 daily demand zone. The candle suggests a bullish reversal, the MACD crossover indicates the trend is switching, making further decline likely. The gap at 7,273 is a must-watch zone. #SPY.
Alpha Lies in Understanding Managers' Long‑Term Strategies
The alpha from 13F's isn't duplicating stale positions. It's from identifying investment strategies over long time horizons of various individual managers and managers in homogenous cohorts and seeing why these folks buy and sell what they buy and sell and...
Extending Waiver Helps Putin, Costs India Billions
🇮🇳 This morning, prior to today’s decision, I noted in the Daily Energy Report that not extending the waiver is good for India. The waiver more than doubled the price of Russian oil. Without it, Russian oil prices will fall....
Retail Centers Surge: Ideal Time to Sell or Refinance
Retail centers are still attracting serious investor attention in 2026. Strong tenant demand, limited inventory, and active 1031 exchange buyers are creating opportunities for strip center owners looking to maximize value. If you’ve considered selling, refinancing, or repositioning your retail asset —...
BlackRock Launches Two Active Muni Bond ETFs, Including Short‑duration
NEW: @BlackRock continues the ETF industry trend of filing/launching active funds. They just filed for two active muni bond ETFs. One will specifically target short duration bonds https://t.co/MoTAGuo7Nl
FTSE Small‑Cap Stalls Near 7,800 Resistance
#FTSEsmallcap doji Candle and Sideways. Resistance 7815, 8000. Support 7604, 7519, 7321. RSI 55.5 bit off Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 7813. Midpoint Line 7753. Bottom Band 7692.
AIM Faces Down Candle, Holds Near Bullish Support
#AIM All Share Down Candle. Support 785, 763, 741. Resistance 824, 837. RSI 57 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 826. Midpoint Line 812. Bottom Band 797.
S&P 500 Hovers Near ATH, Bearish MACD Crossing Soon
#SP500 doji Candle near ATH 7517. Support 7294, 7046, 6790. On verge MACD Bear Cross. RSI 68.5 high but not Overbought. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 7515. Midpoint Line 7393. Bottom Band 7272.
Dow Near ATH Resistance, Bullish EMAs Hint Uptrend
#DOW doji Candle and Sideways. Resistance ATH 50513. Support 48708, 48000, 46978. RSI 58 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band 50078. Midpoint Line 49682. Bottom Band 49293.
Brent Oil Eyes Resistance Near $115 Amid Bullish Signals
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle but drifting up. Resistance $114.7. Support $100, $96.1, $86.1. RSI 59 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Top Bollinger Band $112.2. Midpoint Line $105.8. Bottom Band $99.6.
AUDNZD Rally Wanes as Yield Spread Divergence Deepens
One for the APAC session traders: what do we think of $AUDNZD. It's been an impressive rally as rates and rate forecasts have climbed, but spot and the 2-year AU-NZ yields spread have started to diverge - 60-day correlation lowest in...
Japan’s Finance Chief Seeks Excuse for More Weak Interventions
Japanese Finance Minister looking for the next reason to pull the trigger on another wave of - likely underwhelming - intervention
US Custodian Treasury Drop ≠ China’s Bond Holdings Decline
There is a bit more to the story -- Don't equate a fall in Treasuries held in US custodians with a real fall in China's holdings of US bonds https://t.co/ikBtmc32fc
Wait for Liquidity Grab, Then Ride the Move
You didn’t lose… you were liquidity. This chart shows a perfect smart money move — liquidity taken, FVG respected, and price exploded upward. Most traders enter too early. Professionals wait for confirmation. Change your timing, change your results. Follow for real trading knowledge. #ExploreForex #TradingReels...
DRC and Nigeria Lead African Currency Gains
Here is how the TOP African Currencies have performed against the US dollar over the past year: 🇿🇦South Africa: +8.67% 🟢 🇪🇬Egypt: -6.25% 🔴 🇳🇬Nigeria: +17.05% 🟢 🇩🇿Algeria: -0.1% 🔴 🇲🇦Morocco: -2.38% 🔴 🇦🇴Angola: -0.65% 🔴 🇰🇪Kenya: -0.64% 🔴 🇨🇩DRC: +25.65% 🟢 🇪🇹Ethiopia: -13.5% 🔴 🇬🇭Ghana: +8.30% 🟢 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire:...
SPY Slides to Key $735 Level, Likely to Test
$SPY just hit $735, which I had mentioned was a key level this morning. After losing support at $740, it sold off rather quickly. $735 is a pretty significant level; we can expect a few tests/chop at it, especially as...
Semiconductor Weakness Emerges Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
$SOX Hourly. Some clear notable relative weakness for semis today. NVIDIA earnings this week. Tons of (mostly) open gaps below since end of March. This timeframe finally looking toppy. $SMH $NVDA https://t.co/9AIXPkgLS5
Mega‑Cap Growth Dominates, Value Set for Rebound
Global Growth is still historically expensive, while Value remains relatively cheap, but expensive to its own history. Financials at ~12.2x and Energy at ~12.5x remain cheap. Staples near 19.8x is notable. This chart supports the thesis that we are likely in a: *...
Foreign Investors Flee India, $21B Out, 2026 Worst Since 199
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Foreign portfolio investors have pulled nearly $21 BILLION from Indian equities in the last 2 months. This makes 2026 the WORST YEAR for foreign capital flows since 1993. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN HAS HIT INDIA AND ITS RUPEE HARD....
Mercado Libre Deep Dive: Thesis, Model, Risks, Valuation
I just released my Mercado Libre deep dive - $MELI I cover everything you need to know about the current opportunity – from the key pillars of the thesis to the business model, risks, and valuation. Find it via the link in...
Infrastructure Spending Drives China's Growth Target, up 4.3%
Caixin: "Infrastructure investment remained relatively resilient, rising 4.3%, supported partly by spending on new infrastructure projects." No surprise. Infrastructure spending is the main thing under Beijing's control with which to hit the GDP growth target. https://t.co/oOGHoKEAkQ
Private Capital, Not Government, Solves Housing Shortage
What every voter and apparently, the NY Times Editorial Board, should know about housing policy: 1. Rents reflect the balance of supply of apartments and demand for those apartments in a given area. That’s it; there’s no magic. If you want...
Value Investing Finds Opportunity Amid AI Fear and Market Distortions
Tweedy Browne’s John Spears And Jay Hill on: * AI Fear Is Creating New Opportunities * How Insider Buying Can Reveal Undervalued Stocks * Big Tech Buybacks May Be Destroying Shareholder Value * Why Market Flows Are Distorting Valuations * What Honey Badgers Can Teach...
Create an “Eat First” Zone, Halve Food Waste
Americans throw away billions of dollars in food every year and most of it’s because we forget what’s in the back of the fridge. I put an ‘eat first’ zone in mine for anything about to expire and it’s cut...
Higher‑for‑Longer Rates Shatter Goldilocks Bond Outlook
Inflation came in hot, and the bond market officially lost its cool. 📈🔥 Yields spiked, rate cut bets got pushed back, and the "Goldilocks" narrative took a hit. Higher-for-longer is the new normal. BondMarket
NU Shifts to AI‑Native Model, Targets Growth Over Margins
$NU -- great note out of Goldman Sachs analyst after meeting with $NU management (post earnings) I can't share the whole report but I'll share this part... $NU indicated that it is already seeing material impacts from Al adoption across customer...
Financial Freedom Requires Proactive Steps, Not Luck
Everyone deserves to be FINANCIALLY FREE. But like anything worth having — a fit physique, radiant health, a strong loving relationship with your spouse… It takes a lot of proactive effort (in the beginning). IOW: financial freedom does NOT just happen to...
Indices Pull Back; Trim Positions, Protect Gains
The major indices pulled back on Friday, with the NYSE registering a distribution day. Distribution now stands at four for the NYSE versus just one for the Nasdaq Composite, not at ominous levels. Even so, the market is beginning to...
IG Credit Spreads
IG credit spreads basically back to 4Q2025 tights--in the 8th percentile of all history. https://t.co/SoC6HFk7mE
SPY Rally Falters, Defensive Positioning Needed Now
📺 MARKET TREND SHIFT? WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW We may have a potential shift in the market $SPY character after an extremely strong rally. The fast-moving bullish “active sequence” may end and turn into a more corrective phase. So, traders may...
SPX May Enter Short‑Term Correction Below 7397
$SPX is mixed after a big move from 6316 (March 30 low) to 7517 (last week high), so a corrective phase could last a week or two. Today we’ll see if $SPX stays below 7397 and whether we lose the...
Warsh Faces New Task: Stop Rate Hikes, Not Cut Cuts
Also, we live in a different world from when Warsh was nominated. Will he still push for cuts coming into the job, or will his main challenge be to convince the FOMC *not to hike*?
Own a Resilient Business, Not Speculative Stock Rentals
"Time is more wisely spent locating and owning a business that has the ability to profit in all economic environments than by renting a group of stocks that do well only if a guess about the economy happens to be...
US Neglect Ceded Global Trade Dominance to China
China didn't steal global trade dominance. The US handed it over. What happened between 2000 and 2025 was not a military victory or a political coup but the symptom of decline. It was WTO membership, manufacturing scale, commodity demand, and infrastructure investment...
Record S&P High, Earnings Breadth Soars, Sentiment Lags
The S&P 500 just hit a record high with earnings breadth at historic levels, yet the bull/bear sentiment ratio sits below its long-term average. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/wBJrco1b3U
Late‑Stage Throw‑Over Signals Trend Exhaustion and Blowoff Top
Textbook example of a "late-stage throw-over". Price closes above a well rising trendline late in the game. This signals trend exhaustion, a buying climax or blowoff top. SP Weekly chart: https://t.co/UwG6U7F47V
US Home Prices Edge Up, YoY Growth Slows
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.6% month-over-month between the March 2026 to April 2026 reading That's a soft spring arch Year-over-year came in at +0.7% (decelerated from last month's +0.8% YoY) Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/g7V9gP9I0T
Brent Crude Surpasses $110 on US‑Iran Tensions
Brent crude starts the trading week above $110 a barrel in Asia amid stalled US-Iran talks and a fresh set of warnings to Tehran from President Trump. (CNBC table below.) #economy #oil #energy #markets @cnbc
Stop Replaying Last Month—Embrace Aggressive, Straight Moves
1/10 Most traders are still playing last month’s game. They’re stuck in the “should’ve held… should’ve sized up… should’ve ignored the stop” loop. The market rewarded aggression for weeks. Straight moves. Violent expansions. Minimal pullbacks. That’s the trap.
Buffett's 4 Stock Rules: Understand, Prospects, People, Price
Warren Buffett shares his 4 criteria for buying a stock in this shareholder letter from 1977 "We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and competent people, and...
Combine IRA and HSA for Tax‑Efficient Retirement Savings
For any retiree that is saving for both medical expenses in retirement and also all of their other retirement goals, using a combination of an IRA (for most retirement expenses) supplemented by an HSA as a "retirement health savings account"...
ASTS Faces Revenue Miss and $155M Satellite Write‑Off
⚠️ $ASTS Red Flags: • Q1 2026 revenue miss of $24.27M against consensus, despite significant YoY growth, raises questions about commercialization pace. • Loss of Block 2 BB7 satellite post-Q1, leading to a $155M-$160M write-off in Q2, indicates significant operational and launch...
S&P 500 Rally Shows Signs of Fading Momentum
Just saw a deep dive on the S&P 500’s topping pattern. Key data points suggest the current rally might be losing steam. Not time to panic, but worth watching the technicals closely. 🐻📉 MarketWatch
Diversify $10M T‑Bill Portfolio to Reduce Reinvestment Risk
Interesting question - can someone TBill and Chill on $10 million? The answer is: MAYBE? I think a good financial advisor would press this person to take some duration risk, diversify more into equities and longer bonds or alts to...
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals on the Economy
Thread starter: the bond market is telling two stories. Story 1 — 10Y yield at 4.59% says monetary policy is restrictive and term premium is back. Story 2 — HY credit OAS at 276 bps says default risk is muted...